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Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
Fire Emblem Awakening was at 1.79 million in December 2014, and the game was 2 years old.

It sold another 450K since that? Wow, strong legs! And good to have Fates numbers finally. Not bad, wonder if there is a chance for sells another 150K and break the 3 million mark?
 

Momo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,049
So Pikmin 3 finally climbed over a million. I have a question for you Celine...is it possible to get data for Xenoblade Chronicles X if it ever crosses over a million? I'm not expecting to see it, but seeing Pikmin 3 gives me a little bit of hope.
 
OP
OP

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
So Pikmin 3 finally climbed over a million. I have a question for you Celine...is it possible to get data for Xenoblade Chronicles X if it ever crosses over a million? I'm not expecting to see it, but seeing Pikmin 3 gives me a little bit of hope.

I've updated the data with the FY 2019 first half results.
The WiiU chart should be considered close to definitive (BotW and the strongest selling games will sell slightly more but that's it).
.
 

Crazyorloco

Member
Dec 12, 2017
1,260
I expect triple digits growth (or close to) in the digital sales department for the current fiscal year which will be very important for Nintendo profitability going forward.

aa0aDQo.jpg


download-sales-1.jpg

Amazing really. Looks like they're going to hit 100 Billion in digital sales.

Thank you for putting all this interesting info together!
 

ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
That's unfortunate. So it will forever be stuck in the less-than-a-million club. I'm thinking Xenoblade X is somewhere between 500k to 800k. The game deserves so much more. :(

Anyway, thank you Celine. This is a very useful thread.
Switch port will save it! The Great One wills it into existence! but only if you believe!
 

Peleo

Member
Nov 2, 2017
2,656
There is always a lot of discussion on how Nintendo franchises fare against each other regarding sales. I've compiled the data from the OP and hope this will be useful information moving forward.

Updated as of October 2018.

vbmff1c.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console ; Green = Hybrid Console
Wii Sporsts had to be split in half since it was skewing the graph too much.

EF3xhKR.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console ; Green = Hybrid Console
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers

2D MARIO SALES
FqxMiAe.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console ; Green = Hybrid Console

3D MARIO SALES
ZvYjdMz.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console ; Green = Hybrid Console

2D & 3D MARIO SALES
IMxhOXR.jpg

Blue = 2D Mario ; Yellow = 3D Mario

ANIMAL CROSSING SALES
7aA2AdI.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console

DONKEY KONG SALES
qsgjGHm.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console ; Green = Hybrid Console
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers

FIRE EMBLEM SALES
5QrpF0O.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console ; Green = Hybrid Console
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers
Only includes Western released titles

F-ZERO SALES
5QuMo5f.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers

KIRBY SALES
yiGfFEc.jpg

Blue = Handheld Console; Yellow = Home Console ; Green = Hybrid Console
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers

MARIO KART SALES
TQ08FYJ.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console ; Green = Hybrid Console

MARIO PARTY SALES
f5yGxYQ.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console ; Green = Hybrid Console
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers
*Super Mario Party also lacks official sales numbers

MARIO RPG SALES
SVQcLx6.jpg

Blue = Paper Mario ; Yellow = Mario & Luigi
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers

MARIO TENNIS SALES
U8aPCvs.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console ; Green = Hybrid Console
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers

METROID SALES
EycYJ9r.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console ; Green = Hybrid Console
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers

PIKMIN SALES
mMMVsM9.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers

POKEMON SALES
TvAr98g.jpg

Blue = Original Version ; Yellow = Third Version / Remake

SMASH BROS SALES
7SZ42yu.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console ; Green = Hybrid Console

SPLATOON & ARMS SALES
7GPQpDo.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Green = Hybrid Console
*ARMS should be Green

STAR FOX SALES
3b5mSbH.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers

WARIO SALES
ZXK1BfD.jpg

Blue = Wario Land ; Yellow = Wario Ware
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers

YOSHI SALES
rc5ew5b.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console ; Green = Hybrid Console
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers

ZELDA SALES
4SDauDB.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console ; Green = Hybrid Console
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers

NINTENDO HARDWARE SALES
KNYnutv.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console ; Green = Hybrid Console

All graphs based on Celine's OP.
 
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Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
There is always a lot of discussion on how Nintendo franchises fare against each other regarding sales. I've compiled the data from the OP and hope this will be useful information moving forward.

vbmff1c.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console ; Green = Hybrid Console

EF3xhKR.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console ; Green = Hybrid Console
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers

2D MARIO SALES
FqxMiAe.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console ; Green = Hybrid Console

3D MARIO SALES
ZvYjdMz.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console ; Green = Hybrid Console

2D & 3D MARIO SALES
IMxhOXR.jpg

Blue = 2D Mario ; Yellow = 3D Mario

ANIMAL CROSSING SALES
7aA2AdI.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console

DONKEY KONG SALES
qsgjGHm.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console ; Green = Hybrid Console
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers

FIRE EMBLEM SALES
5QrpF0O.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console ; Green = Hybrid Console
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers
Only includes Western released titles

F-ZERO SALES
5QuMo5f.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers

KIRBY SALES
yiGfFEc.jpg

Blue = Handheld Console; Yellow = Home Console ; Green = Hybrid Console
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers

MARIO KART SALES
TQ08FYJ.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console ; Green = Hybrid Console
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers

MARIO PARTY SALES
f5yGxYQ.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console ; Green = Hybrid Console
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers
*Super Mario Party also lacks official sales numbers

MARIO RPG SALES
SVQcLx6.jpg

Blue = Paper Mario ; Yellow = Mario & Luigi
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers

MARIO TENNIS SALES
U8aPCvs.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console ; Green = Hybrid Console
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers

METROID SALES
EycYJ9r.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console ; Green = Hybrid Console
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers

PIKMIN SALES
mMMVsM9.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers

POKEMON SALES
TvAr98g.jpg

Blue = Original Version ; Yellow = Third Version / Remake

SMASH BROS SALES
7SZ42yu.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console ; Green = Hybrid Console

SPLATOON & ARMS SALES
7GPQpDo.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Green = Hybrid Console
*ARMS should be Green

STAR FOX SALES
3b5mSbH.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers

WARIO SALES
ZXK1BfD.jpg

Blue = Wario Land ; Yellow = Wario Ware
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers

YOSHI SALES
rc5ew5b.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console ; Green = Hybrid Console
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers

ZELDA SALES
4SDauDB.jpg

Blue = Home Console ; Yellow = Handheld Console ; Green = Hybrid Console
Titles marked with * lack official sales numbers
Missing Zelda Breath of the Wild WiiU Data

All graphs based on Celine's OP.

This is a fantastic post and very informative graphic. Thank you for this!

I'd also be interested to see a chart ranking Nintendo's franchises by average sales per entry at some point. A lot of discussions on this forum boil down to where all of the franchises rank in terms of selling power.
 

Reki

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,955
That graphic is a nice way to get an idea of the relative importance of Nintendo's franchises' sales. Thanks for the work!

It's sad to see Pikmin compared to the others though, the series deserves more than that despite its kind of niche genre.
 
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goldenpp73

Banned
Dec 5, 2017
2,144
That graphic is a nice way to get an idea of the relative importance of Nintendo's franchises' sales. Thanks for the work!

It's sad to see Pikmin compared to the others though, the series deserves more than that despite it's kind of niche genre.

Pikmin has yet to get a fair shake really, I would be interested if a AAA Switch release would put up better numbers. The series has always released on flop consoles aside the spin off on 3DS, but that wasn't exactly a series rep.
 
OP
OP

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
Pikmin has yet to get a fair shake really, I would be interested if a AAA Switch release would put up better numbers. The series has always released on flop consoles aside the spin off on 3DS, but that wasn't exactly a series rep.
Nintendo is either porting or releasing sequel of the best seller on WiiU so there is a good chance of a Pikmin 3 DX for Switch (it's one of the very last WiiU million seller that have yet to receive the "Switch treatment").
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,658

Hi Celine! Just wondering if you had a source for the BOTW 1.61 as of Dec 31, 2017 figure. I don't question you (that figure makes sense), just curious when they mentioned it and what else they may have mentioned.

The only note I have ever found was when they mentioned 7.5 million units (pg. 4) sold-through in US/EUR/JP (with 6.0 million from the Switch version) as of Dec 31, 2017, from which we deduce 1.5 million sell through for the Wii U version for US/EUR/JP as of Dec 31, 2017. Given that figure, 1.61 for all regions (or shipped) would be logical.
 
OP
OP

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
Hi Celine! Just wondering if you had a source for the BOTW 1.61 as of Dec 31, 2017 figure. I don't question you (that figure makes sense), just curious when they mentioned it and what else they may have mentioned.

The only note I have ever found was when they mentioned 7.5 million units (pg. 4) sold-through in US/EUR/JP (with 6.0 million from the Switch version) as of Dec 31, 2017, from which we deduce 1.5 million sell through for the Wii U version for US/EUR/JP as of Dec 31, 2017. Given that figure, 1.61 for all regions (or shipped) would be logical.
There is no link on Internet.
All the interesting Nintendo shipment data is in the OP (games with data updated as December 2017 in the WiiU and 3DS charts).
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,658
There is no link on Internet.
All the interesting Nintendo shipment data is in the OP (games with data updated as December 2017 in the WiiU and 3DS charts).

Thanks Celine!

Unrelated - I had a few notes for US SW Sales data prior to any PR/Q3 IR data. There isn't any real centralized sales thread (aside from monthly NPD prediction threads, but those focus on HW) so I thought I'd post here for now.

Some software deductions based on a few pieces of PR.

NSW US HW Sales for CY 2017 - indicated as >4.8M. Based on NPD estimates I believe the figure is 4.88M but someone can correct me if that sounds high.

Attach rates for MK8D/BOTW/SMO for CY2017 in US - Indicated as greater than 50%/55%/60% respectively.

US LTD sell-through for MK8D/BOTW/SMO as of Dec 17, 2018 - Indicated as >5.0M/>4.0M/4.7M respectively. Its also possible that the Dec 17 date is only for Smash and sell-through figures for the others are from an earlier date.

Based on the above:

CY 2017 US Sell-Through

BOTW (NSW) - >2.68M
MK8D (NSW) - >2.44M
SMO (NSW) - >2.93M

CY 2018 US Sell-Through (as of Dec 17, 2018)

BOTW (NSW) - >1.31M
MK8D (NSW) - >2.56M
SMO (NSW) - >1.77M

So as of Dec 17 2018, MK8D had already passed up 2017's figures. With at least 14 days of December still pending (maybe more if this data is from earlier), decent chance for BOTW to approach 2M, SMO to pass 2M and MK8D to go past 3.0M.

Bodes strongly for upcoming Q3 data from Nintendo - MK8D was also up for the CY in the UK. The discounted bundle was available in all of Europe I believe (but in limited quantity). Good chance shipments for MK8D are up YoY for Q3.
 

LegendofLex

Member
Nov 20, 2017
5,458
Nice hold for SMO this year. Looking at Q1 numbers earlier in the year, I was under the impression its tail might not be as impressive as Zelda's. Didn't turn out to be the case.
 
OP
OP

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
Let's hope ARMS somehow survive in the top 10 best selling Switch games after this quarter.
It's unlikely but still...
 
OP
OP

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
as time goes on it will be less and less likely. there are two games this year that will push Arms lower that we know about
Three (Smash Ultimate, Pokemon LG, Super Mario Party) and maybe Kirby too (let's hope somehow ARMS sold better than Kirby in the last quarter though it's pretty unlikely).
Kirby (but also Donkey Kong) will all appear in the yearly million seller list so they are fine until March 2019).
 

ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
Three (Smash Ultimate, Pokemon LG, Super Mario Party) and maybe Kirby too (let's hope somehow ARMS sold better than Kirby in the last quarter though it's pretty unlikely).
Kirby (but also Donkey Kong) will all appear in the yearly million seller list so they are fine until March 2019).
I'm talking this year (2019): Animal Crossing and Pokemon 2019
 

Peleo

Member
Nov 2, 2017
2,656
Let's hope ARMS somehow survive in the top 10 best selling Switch games after this quarter.
It's unlikely but still...

I think Kirby and Mario Tennis are impossible for ARMS to reach at this point. High chance even Donkey Kong has surpassed it by now considering it sometimes would pop up in PAL charts. I'm especially curious to learn more about the following:

-How much Smash has sold (I predict 11m).
-How much Let's Go has done (My guess is around 7m)
-How close to 10m Splatoon is (Prob still 1,5m to go)
-Confirm if Mario Kart 8 has indeed surpassed Odyssey (And if either has surpassed 15m)
-Updated numbers for Mario Tennis (Should be the best selling in the franchise by now).
-Where Super Mario Party stands in the top 10 (My guess is 7th with around 4m)

Celine Do you have any way of keeping track of the titles once they fall out of the Nintendo IR page?
 

Gartooth

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,440
Three (Smash Ultimate, Pokemon LG, Super Mario Party) and maybe Kirby too (let's hope somehow ARMS sold better than Kirby in the last quarter though it's pretty unlikely).
Kirby (but also Donkey Kong) will all appear in the yearly million seller list so they are fine until March 2019).

I've only noticed the IR page that has the top 10 best sellers. Is this yearly million seller list something we will see this quarter, or will we not see it until March?
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
I think Kirby and Mario Tennis are impossible for ARMS to reach at this point. High chance even Donkey Kong has surpassed it by now considering it sometimes would pop up in PAL charts. I'm especially curious to learn more about the following:

-How much Smash has sold (I predict 11m).
-How much Let's Go has done (My guess is around 7m)
-How close to 10m Splatoon is (Prob still 1,5m to go)
-Confirm if Mario Kart 8 has indeed surpassed Odyssey (And if either has surpassed 15m)
-Updated numbers for Mario Tennis (Should be the best selling in the franchise by now).
-Where Super Mario Party stands in the top 10 (My guess is 7th with around 4m)

Celine Do you have any way of keeping track of the titles once they fall out of the Nintendo IR page?
All your numbers are too low imo.

Nintendo 1st party attach rates are insane and since we are expecting 10m+ Switch sold during this quarter...

- MK8D will sell 5m+ this quarter. Best selling Switch game
- Smash 13m
- Pokemon 10m
- Super Mario Party 6m
- Splatoon 10m (no way it sells 1m in Q3)
 

Peleo

Member
Nov 2, 2017
2,656
All your numbers are too low imo.

Nintendo 1st party attach rates are insane and since we are expecting 10m+ Switch sold during this quarter...

- MK8D will sell 5m+ this quarter. Best selling Switch game
- Smash 13m
- Pokemon 10m
- Super Mario Party 6m
- Splatoon 10m (no way it sells 1m in Q3)

I do think you are overrating some of the legs on these games. Excluding digital, Splatoon 2 has sold 190k during Q3 in Japan. Americas and Rest of the World would need to sell 2,3m to reach your numbers, which is more than 10 times what it sold in Japan.

Looking at the current LTD of 7,5m for Splatoon 2, Japan accounts for roughly 33% of the game sales. Keeping that ratio in mind and including digital I think Splatoon will sell around 700k in the period.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
I do think you are overrating some of the legs on these games. Excluding digital, Splatoon 2 has sold 190k during Q3 in Japan. Americas and Rest of the World would need to sell 2,3m to reach your numbers, which is more than 10 times what it sold in Japan.

Looking at the current LTD of 7,5m for Splatoon 2, Japan accounts for roughly 33% of the game sales. Keeping that ratio in mind and including digital I think Splatoon will sell around 700k in the period.
Splatoon 2 already sold 1.45m this FY (for a little bit under 5m of HW sold).

2m+ might be high but it is more reasonable than 700k imo. Western sales are going to be more important than usual.
 

Limabean01

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,664
WA, australia
I do think you are overrating some of the legs on these games. Excluding digital, Splatoon 2 has sold 190k during Q3 in Japan. Americas and Rest of the World would need to sell 2,3m to reach your numbers, which is more than 10 times what it sold in Japan.

Looking at the current LTD of 7,5m for Splatoon 2, Japan accounts for roughly 33% of the game sales. Keeping that ratio in mind and including digital I think Splatoon will sell around 700k in the period.
Other than splatoon 2, what games do you think LeLouch is overestimating? I think 10m+ for Pokémon and 13 ish million for smash are very safe/realistic. Super Mario Party could do even more than 6 million. 5 million mk8 this quarter maybe?
 

klanar

Member
Jun 9, 2018
398
Other than splatoon 2, what games do you think LeLouch is overestimating? I think 10m+ for Pokémon and 13 ish million for smash are very safe/realistic. Super Mario Party could do even more than 6 million. 5 million mk8 this quarter maybe?
Splatoon 2 is the only one out of the games listed that i doubt, 9-9.5M is my prediction.
 

Peleo

Member
Nov 2, 2017
2,656
Other than splatoon 2, what games do you think LeLouch is overestimating? I think 10m+ for Pokémon and 13 ish million for smash are very safe/realistic. Super Mario Party could do even more than 6 million. 5 million mk8 this quarter maybe?

Besides Splatoon 2 I would say only Mario Kart 8 is a bit overestimated. Even though the game is having a fantastic second year, 5m is too much for this quarter. I think it will be closer to 2,5m.

During the last investors meeting, Nintendo published a graph showcasing the monthly sales of the evergreens (Odyssey, BotW, MK8 and Splatoon) in Japan/US/EU. Mario Kart was selling roughly 350k per month. Taking into consideration the overperformance during holidays and sales provenient from rest of the world, it should be closer to 2-3m.

Just for reference, in the sams graph Splatoon 2 was selling in the range of 150-200k.

Regarding the new releases, I think his numbers are all reasonable. Could see Smash doing anything between 11-15m, Pokemon between 7-11m and Mario Party within 5-7m. It's obviously much harder to predict them since there are fewer points of comparison.
 
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OP

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
I've updated the spreadsheet, will soon update the charts in OP (only NSW and 3DS software charts, HW chart and few other ones)

A few quick snippets:
NES Classic + SNES Classic total sell-in: (2.30M+5.28M)+5.83M = 13.41M
So it's safe to state that NES Classic and SNES Classic have already sold more than 13 million units combined as December 2018.

For the quarter Q3 of the FY ending March 2019:
WiiU SW sold 160K
Wii SW sold 280K
DS SW sold 20K

Despite NSW being less than 2 years old Nintendo total first-party software* sales on NSW are already higher than SNES, GBA, GC and WiiU total first-party software sales*.

* What is referred as "First-party software" is actually an approximation calculated by summing every million-seller.
Since most Nintendo games sell at least 1 million units it should be a close enough approximation.
 
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Momo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,049
Thanks for the update, Celine! Impressive numbers all-around.

This is the first quarter without an update on Xenoblade Chronicles 2. It makes me wonder how much it sold in the last quarter. I'm guessing around 100k with a total of 1.63 million copies.
 

PogiJones

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,636
I can get used to periods instead of commas for x.xxx.xxx type numbers. After all, the internet is international, and we need to be flexible with other regions' notations, right?

...But I will never get used to the comma being used for the decimal. It just looks so wrong to me, and does not fit the "five point four five" way of verbalizing decimals I've grown up with. How does one even verbalize those comma decimals? Surely not with "point," right?

But good work, OP.
 

AztecComplex

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,371
After a freaking licensed FPS game from a second party developer outsells The Legend of Zelda Ocarina of Time with sales mostly only from the US on N64 please, pray tell, what demon possessed Nintendo to sell off this second party developer who had already promised an FPS sequel to said smash success' spiritual successor for your struggling cube shaped console even after a newcomer Halo is eating your lunch and then NEVER fill that huge hole you left open in your portfolio?

Seriously, Nintendo sold Rare without having any exclusive flagship FPS to replace them in an era where Halo was taking the world's biggest market by storm.

TL;DR I forget Goldeneye 007 was the third best selling N64 game of all time beating even Zelda OoT and then they sold off Rate. Brilliant move!
 

Myriotes

Member
Jan 30, 2018
532
Germany
I can get used to periods instead of commas for x.xxx.xxx type numbers. After all, the internet is international, and we need to be flexible with other regions' notations, right?

...But I will never get used to the comma being used for the decimal. It just looks so wrong to me, and does not fit the "five point four five" way of verbalizing decimals I've grown up with. How does one even verbalize those comma decimals? Surely not with "point," right?

But good work, OP.

I would say "Fünf komma vier fünf"
 
OP
OP

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
...But I will never get used to the comma being used for the decimal. It just looks so wrong to me, and does not fit the "five point four five" way of verbalizing decimals I've grown up with. How does one even verbalize those comma decimals? Surely not with "point," right?

But good work, OP.
I actually agree with you despite the comma being the decimal separator in my Country.
I just never had the time to check where is the setting to change the culture formatting in Excel.
 
OP
OP

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
After a freaking licensed FPS game from a second party developer outsells The Legend of Zelda Ocarina of Time with sales mostly only from the US on N64 please, pray tell, what demon possessed Nintendo to sell off this second party developer who had already promised an FPS sequel to said smash success' spiritual successor for your struggling cube shaped console even after a newcomer Halo is eating your lunch and then NEVER fill that huge hole you left open in your portfolio?

Seriously, Nintendo sold Rare without having any exclusive flagship FPS to replace them in an era where Halo was taking the world's biggest market by storm.

TL;DR I forget Goldeneye 007 was the third best selling N64 game of all time beating even Zelda OoT and then they sold off Rate. Brilliant move!
I think Nintendo failed to build on the FPS userbase they had on N64 because Nintendo in Japan was never really interested in the genre and all was on Rare shoulders to lead the genre.
Rare however had a bit of troubling to following after GoldenEye which was a licensed IP (Nintendo smartly tend to never be reliant on external IPs because not having the full control of the game IP cause issues and is less profitable).
Perfect Dark took way to long to come out and as result it sold much less than GoldenEye.
The sequel in development on GC also had troubles.

As for why Nintendo didn't decide to spend US$ 100 million or more to fully acquire Rare, I think how the IPs were split between Nintendo and Rare gives a good insight.
Basically Rare retained every IP they've created under Nintendo which weren't previously owned by Nintendo or by other companies (so everything except Donkey Kong, Starfox and GoldenEye 007).
This is telling because, looking at the Rare under Nintendo million seller list, the IPs Rare retained accounted for just 23% of the total sales (15.30 million units of the total 66.21 million units).

CUmDopsXAAE4l32.png