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Nintendo Switch surpasses 7 million units in Japan, close to PS4 LTD

Oct 31, 2017
5,109
Greece
Switch's sales are actually closest to Wii in Japan. It's well behind DS or 3DS.

And coincidentally Japan responded pretty great to Wii too upfront.
Its behind, but its gonna pick up this year. And its certainly well ahead of the Wii, in fact its somewhere inbetween for now. It hasn't hit 3DS levels yet because the traditional revision for handhelds has not been released yet nor has the price cut for the original model that accompanies one, and its selling faster than the Wii because its still handheld in Nature. With a revision, Pokemon, Fire Emblem, and AC in 2019, by the start of FY2020 we could easily see the Switch LTD>Wii LTD.
 
Oct 25, 2017
981
Famitsu Switch Top 10 by Week 1 2019:
  1. Splatoon 2 - 2.922.909
  2. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 2.628.087
  3. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 2.095.845
  4. Super Mario Odyssey - 1.919.356
  5. Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! / Let's Go, Eevee! - 1.326.324
  6. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 1.200.282
  7. Super Mario Party - 862.361
  8. Kirby Star Allies - 678.243
  9. Minecraft - 576.116
  10. 1-2-Switch - 445.401
TOTAL: 14.654.924
Hardware TOTAL: 7.115.244
Famitsu PlayStation 4 Top 10 by Week 1 2013:
  1. Monster Hunter World - 1.944.083
  2. Dragon Quest XI - 1.336.180
  3. Final Fantasy XV - 1.023.924
  4. Grand Theft Auto V - 669.500
  5. Call of Duty: Black Ops 4 - 487.509
  6. Metal Gear Solid V - 448.554
  7. Dark Souls III - 413.021
  8. Persona 5 - 404.308
  9. Call of Duty: Black Ops III - 403.054
  10. NieR: Automata - 402.327
TOTAL: 7.532.460
Hardware TOTAL: 7.684.656

In terms of PS4, it has done well to be in front of the PS3 in Japan and that's in now small part due to Japanese 3rd Parties releasing some of the biggest games on the system. Monster Hunter World and Final Fantasy XV were pretty much exclusive on the system in Japan. All the other games in PS4's top 10 weren't released on a Nintendo console, DQXI had a 3DS version otherwise it probably would have achieved greater sales on the PS4.
2019/2020 will likely be years where the Switch will see a lot of Japanese 3rd Party support. I can see games from PS4/PS3 being ported, I can see a couple of exclusives and most multiplat releases for PS4 will have a Switch version. Not sure how things will go once PS5 launches but knowing how slow Japanese 3rd parties are to react I can see them having a slow transition to the system.

I wonder how third parties feel about it being proven beyond a doubt that collectively they have less influence on the purchasing decisions of consumers than Nintendo does alone.
They've known this for decades, their slow transition and prioritization for the platform puzzles me more - two years of basically crickets - Taiko, Monster Hunter:XX, Dragon Quest Builders 2, Octopath Traveler(not confirmed) are literally the only games I can remember to break 200K sales. Didn't last year holiday teach them anything.
 
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Oct 30, 2017
1,374
Woodbridge
I wonder how third parties feel about it being proven beyond a doubt that collectively they have less influence on the purchasing decisions of consumers than Nintendo does alone.
They made those decision(s) off the back of the underwhelming sales of the Wii U, which was a very sensible business decision at the time.

Thankfully, we are seeing third party and indie developers embracing the Switch more often than not these days. The Switch is only just approaching its second Birthday.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,064
They made those decision(s) off the back of the underwhelming sales of the Wii U, which was a very sensible business decision at the time.

Thankfully, we are seeing third party and indie developers embracing the Switch more often than not these days. The Switch is only just approaching its second Birthday.
I don't think that flies for Japanese third parties to be honest. Judging Switch solely on Wii U meant they were considering Nintendo done as a market entity regardless of the fact the 3DS was the second or third(if you combine GB and GBC) most successful system of all time in their domestic market.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,567
Italy
I don't think that flies for Japanese third parties to be honest. Judging Switch solely on Wii U meant they were considering Nintendo done as a market entity regardless of the fact the 3DS was the second or third(if you combine GB and GBC) most successful system of all time in their domestic market.
At that time, they were still dreaming about PS4 being the only chance to break out internationally.
 
Jan 28, 2018
2,033
PS4 not doing "beyond good" in Japan is due to Sony Entertainment changing HQ and focus, the whole division is based in NA and pretty much all the high profile Sony AAA+ exclusives are either made in the US or in EU, Japan Studio after all these years didn't had a shot with a high budget game, something like ND budget or Santa Monica budget, they only work in small scale titles. PD is the only one with the big budget but GT is a series for Europeans and Americans, Sony line-up needs a big series for the japanese audience. Sony can rely on third party, DQ XI and MHW did really good in Japan, but well, you can't get a MHW and DQXI every year to push your console sales.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,064
They've known this for decades, their slow transition and prioritization for the platform puzzles me more - two years of basically crickets - Taiko, Monster Hunter:XX, Dragon Quest Builders 2, Octopath Traveler(not confirmed) are literally the only games I can remember to break 200K sales. Didn't last year holiday teach them anything.
Yup and if you look at the bands higher than that there's really only Youkai Watch 4 that has any chance of 500k or 1m. It's entirely possible Switch will go its whole lifespan without a third party million seller.

At that time, they were still dreaming about PS4 being the only chance to break out internationally.
Not even that, we know third parties threw their weight behind PS4 with the intention of saving the Japanese console market of making PlayStation the market leader.
 
Nov 18, 2017
844
Switch clearly has strong momentum and software support is looking increasingly good. Funny how some try to use its versatility to detract from its success. Just as a reminder PSV sold less than PS4 in Japan, PSV even got Japan centric 1st Party support.

I wonder how third parties feel about it being proven beyond a doubt that collectively they have less influence on the purchasing decisions of consumers than Nintendo does alone.
SquareEnixs president stated in the beginning of the gen, that their intention was to save the Japanese console market with their PS4 focused software output (including Dragon Quest mainline and spinoff). They probably saw themselves as kingmakers.
 
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Oct 25, 2017
981
Yup and if you look at the bands higher than that there's really only Youkai Watch 4 that has any chance of 500k or 1m. It's entirely possible Switch will go its whole lifespan without a third party million seller.
I'm 100% sure that Yo-Kai Watch 4 will be a million seller, I won't be surprised if it's also the first 3rd party game to surpass 2 million. It just fits with the audience on the Switch in Japan. Whenever a Monster Hunter game releases on the system it will also get to a million fairly easily.
But it's about 3rd Parties developing new games that are attractive to the Japanese audience. They can't continue to rely on just MH/DQ/YW/FF, outside of Level 5 I can't think of many companies that have launched more than 3 new IPs with decent investment in development and marketing in Japan for the last six years.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,543
Tokyo
Yup and if you look at the bands higher than that there's really only Youkai Watch 4 that has any chance of 500k or 1m. It's entirely possible Switch will go its whole lifespan without a third party million seller.



Not even that, we know third parties threw their weight behind PS4 with the intention of saving the Japanese console market of making PlayStation the market leader.
I know you are into playing the doom and gloom game, but PS4 did not get its first 3rd party million seller till week 179 and now it has 3, Switch is currently on week 98 or so, so it still has a bit of life in it.

Minecraft will definitely pass a million eventually.
 
Dec 4, 2018
41
Yup and if you look at the bands higher than that there's really only Youkai Watch 4 that has any chance of 500k or 1m. It's entirely possible Switch will go its whole lifespan without a third party million seller.
Yokai 4 will be for sure a million seller, and might be the first third party million seller in Japan but, besides of Octopath Traveller, all the other stuff has been late ports so, I think it's not fair to compare it with PS4 support, it's not the same a new mainline Monster Hunter like World than a 3DS port, also DQXI is arriving one year later, and so more...
You can't see good third party performance on the platform without good thrid party support first. For example, DQB2 Switch have surpassed PS4 sales.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,064
I'm 100% sure that Yo-Kai Watch 4 will be a million seller, I won't be surprised if it's also the first 3rd party game to surpass 2 million. It just fits with the audience on the Switch in Japan. Whenever a Monster Hunter game releases on the system it will also get to a million fairly easily.
But it's about 3rd Parties developing new games that are attractive to the Japanese audience. They can't continue to rely on just MH/DQ/YW/FF, outside of Level 5 I can't think of many companies that have launched more than 3 new IPs with decent investment in development and marketing in Japan for the last six years.
How much did YW3 do in the end? YW4 is going to see a decline from that for better or worse, it could definitely end up under a million depending on how long it takes to get out.

I know you are into playing the doom and gloom game, but PS4 did not get its first 3rd party million seller till week 179 and now it has 3, Switch is currently on week 98 or so, so it still has a bit of life in it.

Minecraft will definitely pass a million eventually.
I always genuinely forget Minecraft because it's not a Japanese game but yeah that will definitely get there soon enough.

The issue is that there's very few brands that can shift a million copies of a game. Switch isn't getting a mainline FF, DQXII is going to be a long time away considering they haven't managed to get DQXIS out yet and MH appearing on Switch is completely up in the air. Other than those three brands you're looking at Level 5 to produce a million seller.

Yokai 4 will be for sure a million seller, and might be the first third party million seller in Japan but, besides of Octopath Traveller, all the other stuff has been late ports so, I think it's not fair to compare it with PS4 support, it's not the same a new mainline Monster Hunter like World than a 3DS port, also DQXI is arriving one year later, and so more...
You can't see good third party performance on the platform without good thrid party support first. For example, DQB2 Switch have surpassed PS4 sales.
Right, I'm in agreement. It's not that Switch can't support those numbers, it's that third parties aren't putting out that kind of software.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,567
Italy
SquareEnixs president stated in the beginning of the gen, that their intention was to save the Japanese console market with their PS4 focused software output (including Dragon Quest mainline and spinoff). They probably saw themselves as kingmakers.
If they hadn't developed DQXI on 3DS too, the game would have sold half as much as the previous entry in Japan.
 
Nov 18, 2017
844
As seen by overall hardware and especially software sales it's not like it really matters, when or if there are specifically 3rd party million sellers, considering that this is an arbitrary bar to begin with. The system is selling well on both fronts - hardware and software, and already has more millionsellers than PS4 in Japan with even more in the pipeline. It's mostly only detrimental to 3rd parties themselves, while Nintendo is strengthening their IPs and market position even more.
 
Oct 25, 2017
981
How much did YW3 do in the end? YW4 is going to see a decline from that for better or worse, it could definitely end up under a million depending on how long it takes to get out.
I didn't know you could time travel and see how Yo-kai Watch 4 on the Switch is performing, can you also let me know how many sales Animal Crossing achieves this year in Japan?


  • Yo-kai Watch 3: Sushi / Tempura {2016.07.16} (¥4.800) – 1.495.891
  • Yo-kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki {2016.12.15} (¥4.800) - 760.373

Yo-kai Watch 4 looks better than Pokemon Lets Go graphically, it will definitely find an audience on the Switch. The "decline" has more to do with the amount of entries Level 5 pumped out in a short amount of time on the 3DS without considerable overhaul. I can buy Yo-Kai Watch 5 under performing if it releases one year after Yo-Kai Watch 4 but don't see that being the case for Yo-kai Watch 4.

Yo-Kai Watch Franchise on 3DS(2013-2017)
  • Yo-kai Watch(2013) - 1.294.133
  • Yo-kai Watch 2: Bony Spirits / Fleshy Souls(2014) - 3.169.858
  • Yo-kai Watch 2: Psychic Specters(2014) - 2.632.550
  • Yo-Kai Watch Busters(2015) - 2.167.915
  • Yo-Kai Sangokushi(2016) - 563.395
  • Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sushi / Tempura(2016) - 1.495.891
  • Yo-kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki(2016) - 760.373
  • Yo-kai Watch Busters 2(2017) - 501.670
Thats 6 different games and two third versions in the space of 4 years - Level 5 just over did the milking of Yo-Kai and perhaps slowing the pace down to a mainline game every three years would be beneficial to them. The two year break and graphical upgrade will definitely help Yo-Kai Watch 4 perform better than Sushi/Tempura. I don't think the third version if released will perform well and definitely think we'd see a decline if they release another Yo-Kai Watch an year later.
 
Nov 18, 2017
844
If they hadn't developed DQXI on 3DS too, the game would have sold half as much as the previous entry in Japan.
Yes, 3DS version was a complete damage control operation. They also have opened up in general lately, more Switch projects and giving Asano his own business division for example, as they realized actual market realities in Japan.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,567
Italy
Yes, 3DS version was a complete damage control operation. They also have opened up in general lately, more Switch projects and giving Asano his own business division for example, as they realized actual market realities in Japan.
SQEX also pushed a lot Tokyo RPG Factory when Asano's game were actually more successful (but didn't get much exposure to the point that Nintendo had to distribute those games abroad). In fact, even a game like Tetsuna would have stand out more on 3DS.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,064
I didn't know you could time travel and see how Yo-kai Watch 4 on the Switch is performing, can you also let me know how many sales Animal Crossing achieves this year in Japan?

Thats 6 different games and two third versions in the space of 4 years - Level 5 just over did the milking of Yo-Kai and perhaps slowing the pace down to a mainline game every three years would be beneficial to them. The two year break and graphical upgrade will definitely help Yo-Kai Watch 4 perform better than Sushi/Tempura. I don't think the third version if released will perform well and definitely think we'd see a decline if they release another Yo-Kai Watch an year later.
Hasn't the brand itself dropped off outside of just games?

I thought the anime, movies and merchandise had all declined from the YW2 heyday.

Combine that with the brand declines Level 5 saw from DS to 3DS and Switch still being much more expensive and I don't think it's bold to suggest YW4 would be smaller than YW3. That's strikes me as more likely than it recovering to be honest.

i'll make a safe bet and say once switch is done selling it'll have 4 or 5 third party million sellers in its catalog (in japan).
It will be interesting to watch, simply because Yo-Kai Watch 4 is the only obvious possibility(outside of Minecraft) right now.
 
Oct 25, 2017
981
The Wii U had some decent hits in Japan for the amount of support it received, four titles that surpassed 1 million sales & the launch of a new major system seller in Splatoon. In the end the concept and failure taught Nintendo about the importance of the launch year, spacing out big releases that appeal to both Japan and the West and courting indie and smaller publishers. Indie Games like Overcooked, Stardew Valley, Human Fall Flat, Hollow Knight, Steam World Dig, Golf Story, Celeste were promoted heavily in Japan via Nintendo's youtube, twitter and Switch's news feed. So even without much Japanese third party support there was plenty of smaller games people could buy - and it's not that surprising to see these games continue to chart on the eShop years after their release because of their great WoM.


Hasn't the brand itself dropped off outside of just games?

I thought the anime, movies and merchandise had all declined from the YW2 heyday.

Combine that with the brand declines Level 5 saw from DS to 3DS and Switch still being much more expensive and I don't think it's bold to suggest YW4 would be smaller than YW3. That's strikes and more likely than it recovering to be honest.
Lets agree to disagree Oregano, I've outlined why I think it will sell more than YW3:Sushi / Tempura and why I think it could hit 2 million units sold and you are living in some parallel world where we didn't just see Taiko having it's strongest sales since 2012, Zelda having legs for two years, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Splatoon 2 and Smash seeing huge growth, a Pokemon game with worse visuals than YW4 and re-imagining of one of the least popular gens in Japan easily selling over a million in two months. I don't know what exactly makes you think that Yo-Kai has declined so much in 2 years as to fail to easily sell 1 million on a platform as widely popular as the Switch to an audience that is perceptive to such games right around the time we are getting a next gen Pokemon.

I'm willing to bet you right now that if there is no 3rd version released in 2019 Yo-Kai Watch 4 will surpass 2 million this year.
 
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Nov 18, 2017
844
SQEX also pushed a lot Tokyo RPG Factory when Asano's game were actually more successful (but didn't get much exposure to the point that Nintendo had to distribute those games abroad). In fact, even a game like Tetsuna would have stand out more on 3DS.
To put it mildly. SQEX has a pretty good business relationship with Sony. This current development just shows how positive the trends are for Nintendo Switch in Japan.
 
Oct 27, 2017
13,230
It will be interesting to watch, simply because Yo-Kai Watch 4 is the only obvious possibility(outside of Minecraft) right now.
it's also safe to say SE will have the next DQ ready for when switch is on its way out, with switch as the main platform (2022 maybe), to capitalize on the massive userbase the system will have by then. and capcom will have an MH game on the system that in the worst absolute scenario will do 1 million, so that's 4.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,064
Lets agree to disagree Oregano, I've outlined why I think it will sell more than YW3:Sushi / Tempura and why I think it could hit 2 million units sold and you are living in some parallel world where we didn't just see Taiko having it's strongest sales since 2012, Zelda having legs for two years, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Splatoon 2 and Smash seeing huge growth, a Pokemon game with worse visuals than YW4 and re-imagining of one of the least popular gens in Japan easily selling over a million in two months. I don't know what exactly makes you think that Yo-Kai has declined so much in 2 years as to fail to easily sell 1 million on a platform as widely popular as the Switch to an audience that is perceptive to such games right around the time we are getting a next gen Pokemon.

I'm willing to bet you right now that if there is no 3rd version released in 2019 Yo-Kai Watch 4 will surpass 2 million this year.
I don't think Pokémon really backs up your point. Those games have underperformed, a million in two months is bad by Pokémon standards. I don't think you can say it's a re-imagining of one of the least popular gens in Japan" "when the first generation games are literally the best selling games of all time in Japan.

it's also safe to say SE will have the next DQ ready for when switch is on its way out, with switch as the main platform (2022 maybe), to capitalize on the massive userbase the system will have by then. and capcom will have an MH game on the system that in the worst absolute scenario will do 1 million, so that's 4.
I don't think you can take either of those for granted, especially the latter.
 
Oct 25, 2017
981
I don't think Pokémon really backs up your point. Those games have underperformed, a million in two months is bad by Pokémon standards. I don't think you can say it's a re-imagining of one of the least popular gens in Japan" "when the first generation games are literally the best selling games of all time in Japan.
I'm talking about it being a remake of Pokemon Yellow, which only sold 2M in it's entire lifetime, a figure Pokemon Lets Go isn't that far from.
 
Nov 3, 2017
1,794
Wow. A Nintendo portable in Japan overclass completely an home console with such market trend. Totally unpredictable. But it's still sad to see the unstoppable home console decline there.
 
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Dec 21, 2017
4,261
If really makes a lot of the predictions posted in the Switch reveal thread at the old place look utterly hilarious now
I often go back to read those threads or even better those reaction videos at the presentation in 2017, it's so funny.

Nintendo showed more first party titles for one system coming in a year and people weren't happy or didn't realize because of their freaking ridiculous predictions or expectations.

"Splatoon and ARMS not even launch titles"

"No need to buy a Switch before the end of the year when Odyssey comes out"

"No third party games confirmed"
 
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Oct 27, 2017
13,230
Wow. A Nintendo portable in Japan overclass completely an home console with such market trend.
but it's also a home console. for someone picking up a home console, it is a consideration. just because it has the added benefit of portability doesn't mean it's not a part of the home console market, it's in that market because it's a home console out of the box, because of it's price, because of its games' prices, and because of the types of games it's getting.
it's like saying a smartphone is no longer competing with other smartphones if it also could, i don't know, be a bottle opener.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,064
I'm talking about it being a remake of Pokemon Yellow, which only sold 2M in it's entire lifetime, a figure Pokemon Lets Go isn't that far from.
Sure but you can't ignore that Yellow was the fourth Gen 1 game in Japan(third in the west).

They have enough in store for next FY - i wouldnt worry about it.
There's lots of small scale stuff but big releases are still few and far between. It will be interesting to see if we get any truly big announcements.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,567
Italy
Wow. A Nintendo portable in Japan overclass completely an home console with such market trend. Totally unpredictable. But it's still sad to see the unstoppable home console decline there.
Switch costs twice as much as 3DS after its original price cut. Switch costs more than twice as much as DS back then. Games price increases too.

Switch is technically both a home and a handheld but its price positioning leans more to the home console side.

Also, the very fact that home consoles are declining is also Sony's fault for not being able to offer an attractive product.
 
Nov 3, 2017
1,794
but it's also a home console. for someone picking up a home console, it is a consideration. just because it has the added benefit of portability doesn't mean it's not a part of the home console market, it's in that market because it's a home console out of the box, because of it's price, because of its games' prices, and because of the types of games it's getting.
it's like saying a smartphone is no longer competing with other smartphones if it also could, i don't know, be a bottle opener.
It doesn't sell because also an home console. Let's be real there.
 
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Nov 3, 2017
1,794
Switch costs twice as much as 3DS after its original price cut. Switch costs more than twice as much as DS back then. Games price increases too.

Switch is technically both a home and a handheld but its price positioning leans more to the home console side.

Also, the very fact that home consoles are declining is also Sony's fault for not being able to offer an attractive product.
Considered the success WW, Sony did what they can to do as his best. And I'm glad of this. Just imagine a market full of hybrid console graphically limited. No thanks.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,567
Italy
Considered the success WW, Sony did what they can to do as his best. And I'm glad of this. Just imagine a market full of hybrid console graphically limited. No thanks.
What do personal preferences have to do with sales discussion?

Of course Sony chose a specific business strategy but the same very strategy alienated domestic consumers. Also, Sony failed completely with PSV.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,243
PS4 not doing "beyond good" in Japan is due to Sony Entertainment changing HQ and focus, the whole division is based in NA and pretty much all the high profile Sony AAA+ exclusives are either made in the US or in EU, Japan Studio after all these years didn't had a shot with a high budget game, something like ND budget or Santa Monica budget, they only work in small scale titles. PD is the only one with the big budget but GT is a series for Europeans and Americans, Sony line-up needs a big series for the japanese audience. Sony can rely on third party, DQ XI and MHW did really good in Japan, but well, you can't get a MHW and DQXI every year to push your console sales.
It was a smart decision. You can't rely on Japan in stagnant home console market, Japanese market is small, more mobile focused, and there are no IP's that can compete with Mario and Pokemon in Japan no matter what they come up with. Only 7.7 million PS4's sold in Japan yet it will pass 100 million later this year. Japanese games are my favorite but the Japanese market is not what it use to be.
 
Nov 3, 2017
1,794
What do personal preferences have to do with sales discussion?

Of course Sony chose a specific business strategy but the same very strategy alienated domestic consumers. Also, Sony failed completely with PSV.
I don't follow you. I should talk just about what is it better for me or for a company finances in a vg forum? Personally I prefer the Sony approach over the Nintendo. I'm just glad a company like sony exist for the home console because if it was for Nintendo we would be stuck to the same graphic tech for a decade.