• The ResetEra Games of the Year Awards 2018 results are now live! Congratulations to all the winners!
  • Sidebar and Width settings will now no longer reset after 4 hours of inactivity! We have implemented a new system that will remember these preferences on each browser, for both members and guests. This allows you to choose different settings on different devices if you so desire.

Nintendo Switch surpasses 7 million units in Japan, close to PS4 LTD

Oct 25, 2017
1,952
I think 20 million is pretty reasonable long term for the Switch in Japan.
if it hits 20m i think it goes like this:

2019: 5m (system's peak with pokemon gen 8 and animal crossing and a revision)
2020: 4m (by this point, basically the only system on the market with the ps4 functionally a dead system and ps5 launching in 2021 in japan)
2021: 3m (japan launch of ps5 plus switch is now old)
2022: 1.5m (new switch launches)
2023: 0.5m
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,153
if it hits 20m i think it goes like this:

2019: 5m (system's peak with pokemon gen 8 and animal crossing and a revision)
2020: 4m (by this point, basically the only system on the market with the ps4 functionally a dead system and ps5 launching in 2021 in japan)
2021: 3m (japan launch of ps5 plus switch is now old)
2022: 1.5m (new switch launches)
2023: 0.5m
Exactly. Unless they have a really explosive year or just keep the revisions coming, this is what I forsee.
 
Jun 9, 2018
257
if it hits 20m i think it goes like this:

2019: 5m (system's peak with pokemon gen 8 and animal crossing and a revision)
2020: 4m (by this point, basically the only system on the market with the ps4 functionally a dead system and ps5 launching in 2021 in japan)
2021: 3m (japan launch of ps5 plus switch is now old)
2022: 1.5m (new switch launches)
2023: 0.5m
I think people are expecting it to have 1-2 years more of great sales and put switch LTD between 25-30M
 
Oct 27, 2017
3,464
Having a portable component isn't 'doing what Nintendo is doing.' I suggested a traditional box as the entry level option. The portable+eGPU option is the high end option, and is absolutely NOT what Nintendo is doing. Is Microsoft copying Nintendo with Surface? Is Razer copying Nintendo with Razer Core? What sort of enormous ego do you think Nintendo has?
The crazy price of the thing combined with the fact that it wouldn't even be notably strong compared to normal PS5 will kill any chance of it trying to exist.

Fans proved very well with the Vita that they don't give a single shit about a portable if it's even slightly overpriced. At only $250 to start with it still completely flopped.
 
Oct 25, 2017
909
During the PS3 I dont think this was just a Japanese developer thing but the whole industry that basically said they were gonna force the PS3 to success. The PS3 got every multiplatform title and it's exclusives regardless of it being difficult to work for, very expensive, and was selling like crap. But once the WiiU was in a similar bind even when 3rd parties were infact ready to support it, they hightailed it out of there at the 1st sign of trouble.
Abandoning the Wii U made sense because it was selling worse than the PS3 ever did, and didn't bring anything worthwhile to the table, power or feature-wise. The fact that Nintendo themselves never managed to find a way to sell people on the Gamepad speaks volumes about how bad of a product it was.

The Switch, however, has been selling on par with other market-leading consoles and addresses the divide between Japan and the rest of the world - Japan has a strong preference for portables while the rest of the world favours stationary hardware. If I'm a Japanese developer, I'm making the Switch part of my development pipeline to cover all bases, especially if my games aren't advanced enough to require PS4 level hardware. There is absolutely no reason for the likes of Falcom to be dragged kicking and screaming to support the Switch.
 
Oct 25, 2017
13,890
Japan is also quite literally a shrinking market. We'll see how much the Switch blows up when it is ten thousand yen cheaper, it'll probably at least catch up to the 3DS by the time it is all over.
 
Sep 10, 2018
1,508
portability is such a huge thing, even in adults now.

how i wish i can just lie in bed and whip out my ps4 and play god of war on a portable screen.