Jiggle the keys enough and people simply stop paying attention to pesky details like "how" or "why"
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North Korea: No need for more missile tests
- Thread starter SeroTyler
- Start date
Jiggle the keys enough and people simply stop paying attention to pesky details like "how" or "why"
Nobody should be optimistic about developments in North Korea until we SEE RESULTS.
Anybody could be president, it wouldn't matter, nobody should ever take anything about the North Korean regimes word at face value until there are quantifiable results. Dismissing it off-hand until we have actual concrete reasoning and frameworks of any form of deal structuring is the rational play.
Thanks! I also know that my car moves down the road without knowing every aspect of how the mechanics function. You can infer something is occurring without knowing all of the fine detail of how it came to be.
How about you don't try to explain me something like I'm 5 year old when your own argument is based on nothing.
To this day, I refuse to give anyone involved with the Iran deal credit for anything because we have absolutely no idea where Iran's nuclear program will be in 5, 10, 20 years. We do know what Iran's goals are and how reliable they are when they claim something. That is reason alone to always be deeply skeptical of arrangements like these.
Remember when the Soviet Union fell and it was all smiles and handshakes and rainbows? We even opened up a McDonald's over there. Not even a few decades later things have regressed beyond imagine.
That's reasonable. Very much so. But I disagree with outright declaring optimism should be completely off the table here. There should certainly not be any celebrations, but it's perfectly reasonable to see that this is going further than ever before and be hopeful. They're talking about an official end to the war for God's sake.
Van Jackson, an adjunct for the state department for the leap day deal is also skeptical of this unless bearing results.
https://twitter.com/WonkVJ
They have talked about an official end to the war before, plenty of times. I have posted two timelines of events regarding North Korean nuclearization in the last 30 years that showcases this. In 2000 there was high level discussion of reunification of split families and the peninsula as a whole.
It's all a show.
I gave you an example of why my logic is sound because you're not debating in good faith.
Based on nothing? Did Trump not put North Korea in his cross hairs and make them a major focus of his international strategy? Did South Korea not declare that all credit is due to Trump? Don't be obtuse for the sake of it.
I get it. I loathe Trump as well. But to hold your breath and stamp your feet and refuse to acknowledge he likely played a role in this potentially positive development just makes you look silly.
Let's give credit where it's verifiable and right to do so. South Korea would not be engaging with these talks without permission from the US. A commitment to diplomacy deserves credit.
The site isn't inoperable due to collapse. It has another tunnel they can use, and nothing suggests to date that tunnel was affected much. It's been shown to be under preparation. It's also contended whether 200 or so even died. This is based on Asahi TV and its anonymous "sources inside NK." It was never confirmed reliably. It'll be closed due to political reasons, not because they can't use it. The mountain can be used.
I mean he made a great point of generally not focusing on international diplomacy by gutting the state department. If being angry on Twitter is great focus for you, sure. NK is generally a greater focus globally, but that is not because Trump decided so, but because NK is getting to a dangerous point in their decades of nuclearization.
And what a surprise at an US ally praising the US president for something, especially somebody like SK who are in dire need of their help.
Unless it's worse than being advertised. Many experts have theorized the mountain is suffering from tired mountain syndrome.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tired_mountain_syndrome
I have provided well thought out lengthy posts in different threads regarding this. All I can say this is the saltiest forum I have seen. I can't wait to come back to see the crow eaten. It's impossible to be rational and give Trumps administration any credit. So many people are so opposed to him that they can't even imagine he could do something good. The other thread I was active in and providing long posts was where posters were advocating riots in cities. Like I try to discuss in good faith but it's almost impossible in here. I didn't vote for Trump. I am a libertarian so I can acknowledge the good and bad that comes from the administration. Some of you all are straight tin foil conspiracy theorists at this point just to rationalize your partisanship. Good lord. This is a welcome development and of course his administration had something to do with it. The old CIA Director and future Secretary of State, he will be confirmed, just visited. If we are good with this it is directly related to the that visit, the China visit, and started with Pence at the Olympics.
Yeah. I'm not going to go tinfoil hate just because I hate Trump.
I feel the same way, but now imagine all those salty posts making your head hurt and adding, on top of that, posts about Trump has done it all and it's over and give him all the awards. I don't know what keeps drawing me back in when all I see is an oscillation between two extremes while reasonable and cautious takes on what's going on here are lumped into the fervor.
I don't know which experts you're talking about but there were some articles popping up last year citing "experts" speculating it. Seismic events happen and it can cause problems, but the site can be used further in spite of that. They have additional areas available and there has been a lot of work done on the West portal until it slowed down in March, likely due to recent talks.
This sums it up pretty well: https://www.38north.org/2017/10/mtmantap101717/
Trump this, Trump that. Fuck me. It's like he's single-handedly brought lasting peace with little to no contributions from South Korea or China or something. Let's actually wait and see what the clear outcome of all this is before people start prostrating themselves to his name and demand he be awarded with the Nobel Peace Prize.
I hope the regime is genuinely acting in good faith here and there are some signs that this is unprecedented. But it's just as conceivable that Pyongyang has long wanted for something like this to happen. Successful nuclear proliferation while pushing the envelope as far as it could with the rhetoric without actually starting anything to build up and maintain internal support and stability. Slowly present themselves with a more acceptable face, be treated as an equal on the world stage, have comfortable cordial relations with the USA, China and South Korea, solidify the regime's position (if indeed it was ever threatened or made to look precarious of late) and then proceed with whatever is next.
I hope the regime is genuinely acting in good faith here and there are some signs that this is unprecedented. But it's just as conceivable that Pyongyang has long wanted for something like this to happen. Successful nuclear proliferation while pushing the envelope as far as it could with the rhetoric without actually starting anything to build up and maintain internal support and stability. Slowly present themselves with a more acceptable face, be treated as an equal on the world stage, have comfortable cordial relations with the USA, China and South Korea, solidify the regime's position (if indeed it was ever threatened or made to look precarious of late) and then proceed with whatever is next.
If only we were all enlightened libertarians so that we could fence-sit on the Trump administration like any rational individual would
Credit for what?
There have been effectively no casualties in the Korean War since the armistice was signed in 1953 except for the masses of North Koreans killed by their own government. If Trump facilitates the formal end of this war without anything that benefits the horrible humanitarian situation in that country, then this is a loss for humanity and a victory for the totalitarian regime in charge. It is extremely premature to give credit to anyone. Am I skeptical that Trump will sign a deal that will improve the human rights for North Koreans? Yeah, that'd be an understatement, given what he's done to negatively impact the lives of American citizens under his direct stewardship. But if he does sign a deal that will better their situation? Then I'd eat crow. Otherwise, I don't give a shit if North Korea put away some nukes that they'd never have fired anyway while hundreds of thousands of people are starved, tortured, and murdered. Their plight is far more real than any imagined threat against the United States, which has only ever and always will be used as leverage to benefit the North Korean government, not the North Korean people.
Peace is not the end of a war that's killing no one. Peace is the end of this:
But yeah go ahead let's all just keep talking about what this means for Trump.
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What a country it would be if we stood up for individual views rather than party. I agree!
Indeed, if only people developed their minds beyond vacuous #bothsides
The famine has been over in NK for quite a while. They're just poor now, not a nation that's constantly starving to death. KJU has actually done a somewhat notable job of strengthening the economy despite the sanctions.
Pretty good article on it: https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/04/30/world/asia/north-korea-economy-marketplace.html
I'm wondering, if this is all real, whether Kim knows the US will never actually leave the peninsula and instead wants to try to seize the moment to end the war and thereby normalize relations with the US so he can push through market reforms more quickly. He can then play the US and China off of each other as they both seek to court NK for strategic control, rather than just be China's annoying little cousin. Sort of like how Afghanistan prior to the 70s used to play the US and USSR off each other for aid.
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There are salty liberals that won't give Trump any credit just like Republicans did with Obama. I'll vote against him, but can give him credit for any good things. I'll just wait for this to actually materialize before doing it.
You can be fiscally conservative, socially liberal and have your own opinions on foreign policy. Its liberating. Try it!
So then where exactly do you see the positives in the Trump administration? Because he wastes money like nobody's business, has ancient social views, and has had an awful record on foreign policy.
Credit for what?
There have been effectively no casualties in the Korean War since the armistice was signed in 1953 except for the masses of North Koreans killed by their own government. If Trump facilitates the formal end of this war without anything that benefits the horrible humanitarian situation in that country, then this is a loss for humanity and a victory for the totalitarian regime in charge. It is extremely premature to give credit to anyone. Am I skeptical that Trump will sign a deal that will improve the human rights for North Koreans? Yeah, that'd be an understatement, given what he's done to negatively impact the lives of American citizens under his direct stewardship. But if he does sign a deal that will better their situation? Then I'd eat crow. Otherwise, I don't give a shit if North Korea put away some nukes that they'd never have fired anyway while hundreds of thousands of people are starved, tortured, and murdered. Their plight is far more real than any imagined threat against the United States, which has only ever and always will be used as leverage to benefit the North Korean government, not the North Korean people.
Peace is not the end of a war that's killing no one. Peace is the end of this:
How many lives are you prepared to sacrifice for to end this? Because Kim is not giving up his power without a war.
Regime change right now is practically impossible but the lives of those people could still be bettered. The closing of concentration camps and reformation of their penal code could be conditions of the lifting of sanctions and the administration of aid, perhaps with regular inspections by the United Nations. If the only condition of a deal is the cessation of their nuclear weapons program then that deal is a failure.
Honestly what does fiscal conservatism even mean? Trickle down economics is nonsense
Fiscal conservativism and being socialy liberal don't mix. Though that's a topic for another thread.
If it means better lives for the people living there, I say forget the past. I know the NK regime did atrocious things, but you've got to think of the millions living there and born in the future who may get better lives out of this.
I guess top NK realise they can't brainwash people forever, time to open up to the world.
NK's militarism is the only reason people care about them. Nobody talks about Eritrea but its human rights record is one of the worst in the world.
True. But in a nutshell here is a couple examples. Gay marriage is cool! Keep religion out of state related business! Stop spending on the war on drugs and the private prison business. Tax Marijuana and profit, and keep non violent people out of jail. Just a few things. Cheers
its bizarre to me how some want to shower trump for this lol
if anything, i'll say maybe his image of being an unpredictable fool with power could have made kim seriously contemplate his future. im not sure its crediting to say kim balked by meeting someone who acts as a amplified version of himself, but i guess we should take what we can get?
we've all known, antics and bullshit aside, he values the regime and staying in power. that was the whole point of the program and using it as a baton against the west given how awful they treat their own people. i think we've long playacted north korea with buying off time and it may have finally come to a point of no return. when it came down to it, cooler heads in the south along with china seem to have so far prevailed in getting kim to see the bigger picture for now.
giving credit to pence because he just showed up at the Olympics is also a farce IMO. he bailed on meeting with the north at the last minute, caused drama over sitting for the north, and came back home to bash them for being savages against their own people afterwards. the idea he scored any points for peace is BS. he showed up and the south played it as best they could that it showed the U.S. was willing to play nice. as for pompeo, im not going to debate his experience but his visit (while harboring true intentions of meeting) was an obvious political ploy for someone who is going to be a hard nomination. the timing of the information release was planned along with its intentions.
south korea has been coaxing this along most of the time with Chinese influence that he has no gain by gaming the west and japan further. Our capacity has been trump doing his usual waffling threats and thankfully some people in power on our side who know how to posture openness better than the white house. i'll even credit pompeo for changing his tone on kim and the north leading into this (once again, to think he did this without playing optics and maybe being SOS is silly)
i still think if the in person meeting happens with trump, and if he tries strong arming north korea too far he could help destroy a good amount of progress for sometime. that said, im also not willing to trust trump on where he will fall on basic demands we should make of the north. hes giving away a huge piecemeal alone by meeting. we know trump has no boundaries when it comes to dictators and willing to cow poke if they play star eyed with him.
kim may want to play nice and gain economic strength, but they have a big laundry list to atone and address. im afraid trump lets them skate on things they shouldn't be able to. lastly throw in things like the iran deal and its future impact much less who and how do you go about monitoring north Korea with all its underground facilitates, what kim's willing to give to gain access economically... theres a lot to still play out before congratulating anyone.
if anything, i'll say maybe his image of being an unpredictable fool with power could have made kim seriously contemplate his future. im not sure its crediting to say kim balked by meeting someone who acts as a amplified version of himself, but i guess we should take what we can get?
we've all known, antics and bullshit aside, he values the regime and staying in power. that was the whole point of the program and using it as a baton against the west given how awful they treat their own people. i think we've long playacted north korea with buying off time and it may have finally come to a point of no return. when it came down to it, cooler heads in the south along with china seem to have so far prevailed in getting kim to see the bigger picture for now.
giving credit to pence because he just showed up at the Olympics is also a farce IMO. he bailed on meeting with the north at the last minute, caused drama over sitting for the north, and came back home to bash them for being savages against their own people afterwards. the idea he scored any points for peace is BS. he showed up and the south played it as best they could that it showed the U.S. was willing to play nice. as for pompeo, im not going to debate his experience but his visit (while harboring true intentions of meeting) was an obvious political ploy for someone who is going to be a hard nomination. the timing of the information release was planned along with its intentions.
south korea has been coaxing this along most of the time with Chinese influence that he has no gain by gaming the west and japan further. Our capacity has been trump doing his usual waffling threats and thankfully some people in power on our side who know how to posture openness better than the white house. i'll even credit pompeo for changing his tone on kim and the north leading into this (once again, to think he did this without playing optics and maybe being SOS is silly)
i still think if the in person meeting happens with trump, and if he tries strong arming north korea too far he could help destroy a good amount of progress for sometime. that said, im also not willing to trust trump on where he will fall on basic demands we should make of the north. hes giving away a huge piecemeal alone by meeting. we know trump has no boundaries when it comes to dictators and willing to cow poke if they play star eyed with him.
kim may want to play nice and gain economic strength, but they have a big laundry list to atone and address. im afraid trump lets them skate on things they shouldn't be able to. lastly throw in things like the iran deal and its future impact much less who and how do you go about monitoring north Korea with all its underground facilitates, what kim's willing to give to gain access economically... theres a lot to still play out before congratulating anyone.