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HTupolev

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,437
Italy's lockdown was only 11 days ago, so even if it was just as effective as China's lockdown, we still wouldn't expect to see a visible change in the trend yet.
 

Kikujiro

Member
Oct 27, 2017
906
Did you find some articles/news about this possible peak on March 25?
I am damnably hoping for this peak, but with these numbers it seems more distant than ever..

That was the the estimate before the Borrelli news. I think there are still too many people out, this is probably why these past few days they are enforcing more inspections.
 

OmegaX

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,120
After seeing Italy numbers, I'm glad we decided to close down everything with just 100 or so infected. Now, if only people could just stop being assholes and breaking quarantine.
 

gr0w

Member
Oct 28, 2017
332
Wow, did he just say Germany is just counting the number of deaths based exclusively on a coronavirus diagnosis?
Germany does not test dead people for Corona if they have not been tested positive while alive. You should stop paying attention to those numbers in general since they are extremely skewed.
 
Oct 27, 2017
6,302
I know this isn't news to anybody here but what a laughable shitshow Trump and his whole circus is. I've said this before this week but the contrast between his and even Boris fucking Johnson's briefings is vast.

That said however, if our American friends want a reminder of what a competent politician looks like, do take a look at Rashi Sunak - currently standing to Boris Johnson's right. He seems like an astonishing breath of fresh air.
 

Dany1899

Member
Dec 23, 2017
4,219
That was the the estimate before the Borrelli news. I think there are still too many people out, this is probably why these past few days they are enforcing more inspections.
Too many people are still out, I agree with you.
In my city, the police found 30 people in a small warehouse (one of the person worked there and had the keys to open it). They said they were praying since Mass is not celebrated anymore in churches (if that's the real reason). Families with children were seen in a small park near here. In big cities (Turin, Milan), too many old people use public transports to buy everyday something. I read an article where a bus driver said that he noticed some people doing multiple rides from an end of line to the opposite. He asked them why, and theys aid they didn't know what to do..
 

HTupolev

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,437
Does it stand to reason with all this social distancing we will see a drop in flu cases as well?
Yes, infectious diseases in general should see lower transmission rates.

This is why the "it's no big deal because only a fraction of a percent of people in Hubei were infected" folks were being ridiculous. If you instituted a Hubei COVID-19 style lockdown in the face of any infection when it's at fewer than 1,000 known cases, ending up with 80,000 cases is crazy high.
 

Shoeless

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,000
She's Canadian. The US has enough dumbasses. Canada can claim this one.
thenarwhal.ca

Evangeline Lilly: I am Canadian. What are You? | The Narwhal

This is a guest post by Evangeline Lilly, Canadian actress. For those of you who don’t know me, I am a Canadian actress who has been living abroad in Hawaii for the past ten years. I have been involved in such well-known projects as the television series “Lost”, the indie hit “The Hurt Locker”...

She's from Alberta. Which is Texas North. That explains a lot, and I say this as someone who grew up there as a visible minority.
 

Guppeth

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,828
Sheffield, UK
That said however, if our American friends want a reminder of what a competent politician looks like, do take a look at Rashi Sunak - currently standing to Boris Johnson's right. He seems like an astonishing breath of fresh air.
He's a good speaker, at least compared to the overgrown sheepdog to his left. It's hard to believe that any current member of the Conservative Party is competent, however. Not when the goal is to protect lives and livelihoods.
 

AlexBasch

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,310
Maybe we should look at the demographic stats to actually get a glimpse of how high the mortality rate is going to look like.

3.4%? Give me a fucking break. I fear some countries will be wiped out at this rate.
 

Trice

Banned
Nov 3, 2018
2,653
Croatia
Pretty sure Italy locked down Lombardy a month ago. It doesn't seem to have much of an impact especially considering how many morons are breaking quarantine.
 

someday

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,453
How the fuck can anyone think that he's doing a good job... Much less a plurality of Americans!

What the fuck is going on?
Foxnews' coverage of this has been lock-step with Trump's actions. When he considered it a hoax, so did Fox. When he started taking it more seriously, so did Fox. And now that we have a massive pandemic on our hands, it looks to them like Trump is duly taking it seriously. The problem is that while they were calling it a hoax, we should have been planning and preparing but we weren't. They will have no idea that he wasted 2 months. I've been checking out their website daily for the past few week, comparing it to others that I actually use for news. To people who only get their news from Foxnews, it truly looks like the president has been on top of it.
 
Oct 27, 2017
6,302
He's a good speaker, at least compared to the overgrown sheepdog to his left. It's hard to believe that any current member of the Conservative Party is competent, however. Not when the goal is to protect lives and livelihoods.

A fair point that I can't and won't disagree with. I think he's just emerged as an impressive voice in politics out of the fucking void we've all experienced for so long.
 

Kikujiro

Member
Oct 27, 2017
906
Too many people are still out, I agree with you.
In my city, the police found 30 people in a small warehouse (one of the person worked there and had the keys to open it). They said they were praying since Mass is not celebrated anymore in churches (if that's the real reason). Families with children were seen in a small park near here. In big cities (Turin, Milan), too many old people use public transports to buy everyday something. I read an article where a bus driver said that he noticed some people doing multiple rides from an end of line to the opposite. He asked them why, and theys aid they didn't know what to do..

I just read about a supermarket cashier who died and it was absurd because:
- She worked with a high fever since the start of the week
- She's in Brescia, which is a hot zone
How does that even happen? Why was she working with a fever? If this kind of things continue it will take longer to stop the spread.
 
Jan 31, 2018
1,430
www.politico.com

'Bad advice from the president': Trump touts unproven coronavirus drugs

The president suggested certain programs that the administration could use to get experimental drugs to people quickly outside of clinical trials.

What we're talking about today is beyond Right to Try," Trump said, adding that the law "has been a tremendous success."

But outside researchers were quick to sound the alarm.

"Wow, that is bad advice from President Trump," said Diana Zuckerman, a drug safety expert at the National Center for Health Research. "Lives can be saved if red tape is cut in terms of making tests, respirators, and hospital beds more available. Making untested antivirals available is not a good strategy."

How many more people are going to die because of Trump's ego
 

Dany1899

Member
Dec 23, 2017
4,219
I just read about a supermarket cashier who died and it was absurd because:
- She worked with a high fever since the start of the week
- She's in Brescia, which is a hot zone
How does that even happen? Why was she working with a fever? If this kind of things continue it will take longer to stop the spread.
And she was quite young, 48 years old.
I can't imagine how many people got the virus, while going to that supermarket, too...
 

Kyougar

Cute Animal Whisperer
Member
Nov 3, 2017
9,359
Seriously? No wonder their numbers are so rosy.

The number of people who die from corona that did not get a corona test are minuscule at this point of time when the hospitals are not even overloaded. It will change, but right now the low German numbers are because of heavy testing (160k tests a week, when even Italy did "just" 180k overall). They are comparative to other nordic countries.
 

Shoeless

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,000
Foxnews' coverage of this has been lock-step with Trump's actions. When he considered it a hoax, so did Fox. When he started taking it more seriously, so did Fox. And now that we have a massive pandemic on our hands, it looks to them like Trump is duly taking it seriously. The problem is that while they were calling it a hoax, we should have been planning and preparing but we weren't. They will have no idea that he wasted 2 months. I've been checking out their website daily for the past few week, comparing it to others that I actually use for news. To people who only get their news from Foxnews, it truly looks like the president has been on top of it.

As long as Fox viewers reprogram themselves to remember that Democrats called it a hoax (themselves) while they were telling everyone to take it seriously but everyone didn't (democrats) they can feel smug about being ignored when they were all "I told you so." And probably be forced to hit you repeatedly if you pull out their social media remarks saying "Hoax," until you admit that you wrote those posts because you "hacked" their account.
 

Bluforce

Member
Oct 27, 2017
630

GYODX

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,243
Also, infection spread (which follows a logistic curve) is a little counter-intuitive. What seems like a big change from one day to the next does not necessarily indicate that it's not slowing down. You have to take the second derivative. So don't look for the peak, look for the inflection point.
 
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dryz

Member
Oct 30, 2017
247
The number of people who die from corona that did not get a corona test are minuscule at this point of time when the hospitals are not even overloaded. It will change, but right now the low German numbers are because of heavy testing (160k tests a week, when even Italy did "just" 180k overall). They are comparative to other nordic countries.

I read somewhere that people with underlying conditions are not counted under covid deaths. Was that clarified?
 

KingSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,998
The number of people who die from corona that did not get a corona test are minuscule at this point of time when the hospitals are not even overloaded. It will change, but right now the low German numbers are because of heavy testing (160k tests a week, when even Italy did "just" 180k overall). They are comparative to other nordic countries.

Other Nordic countries are way behind Germany on the timeline of the spread though. If Germany doesn't test mortem you don't really know if the number is high or low. Old people could die without ever being in ICU or even in a hospital.
 

Kikujiro

Member
Oct 27, 2017
906
Maybe we should look at the demographic stats to actually get a glimpse of how high the mortality rate is going to look like.

3.4%? Give me a fucking break. I fear some countries will be wiped out at this rate.

Remember that there are countless of people who have it, who are not being tested and will never get tested (because they have little to none symptoms), this is the reason it's spreading so fast and even sane people should stay at home.
 

Astandahl

Member
Oct 28, 2017
9,011
I don't know if we are going to recover this time. The economy fallout will be huge especially considering the incompetence of the government.

Oh well stay safe fellow italians.
 

Serious Sam

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,354
Other Nordic countries are way behind Germany on the timeline of the spread though. If Germany doesn't test mortem you don't really know if the number is high or low. Old people could die without ever being in ICU or even in a hospital.
I'm pretty sure Germany knows what they are doing in regards to testing. They have one of the best healthcare systems on the planet.
 

Kyougar

Cute Animal Whisperer
Member
Nov 3, 2017
9,359
I read somewhere that people with underlying conditions are not counted under covid deaths. Was that clarified?

That's fake news. It would leave a gap in the statistic and was already clarified that every covid death in Germany is counted towards covid if they were tested positively, even if they from other causes.

Say, you have 1000 cases
5 die purely because of covid (Pneumonia)
45 die because of underlying health problems
50 recover.
In the official report, you would have 900 active cases, 5 deaths, 50 recoveries and .... where did the 45 people go?

It's bullshit and already debunked.
 

gr0w

Member
Oct 28, 2017
332
Just did a quick google, one source:
www.n-tv.de

Warum ist die Sterblichkeitsrate so niedrig?

Auch vor Deutschland macht das neue Coronavirus nicht Halt. Mittlerweile sind Tausende Menschen mit dem Erreger infiziert. Im Vergleich zu anderen Ländern wie Italien und Spanien fällt die Sterblichkeitsrate aber deutlich geringer aus. Warum?
Was also mentioned in several interviews with the head of the Charitee (university hospital Berlin) etc.