Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) resources and discussion thread (Discussion guidelines in OP)

eyeball_kid

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,647
Number of tests has a direct impact on the death rate. The Us is only testing people who show symptoms, or even only people who need hospitalization. The shadow figure is much higher in the US. If the US would test more, their cases would be 10 times higher and their death rate much lower.
Ah, that's a fair point. Thanks.
 

Sloane

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,068
Number of tests has a direct impact on the death rate. The Us is only testing people who show symptoms, or even only people who need hospitalization. The shadow figure is much higher in the US. If the US would test more, their cases would be 10 times higher and their death rate much lower.
Yup. And even Germany is testing far from everyone who's showing symptoms so even our number of cases might be much higher.
 

crazillo

Member
Apr 5, 2018
2,282
Stuttgart, Germany
Number of tests has a direct impact on the death rate. The Us is only testing people who show symptoms, or even only people who need hospitalization. The shadow figure is much higher in the US. If the US would test more, their cases would be 10 times higher and their death rate much lower.
We do test more but as I said earlier about my case, in Germany it's all linked to "having a direct contact to somebody who was infected or was in the hotspot regions within the last two weeks" as well. Symptoms alone are not enough of a reason to get tested either. Though we have our family doctors who will probably order a test in case they think it's the right thing to do.
 

Lishi

Member
Oct 27, 2017
855
My question wasn't about number of cases. My point was that Germany and the U.S. have about the same number of reported cases right now (roughly 19.8k), but Germany has had 68 deaths while the U.S. has had 275 deaths. So there's something about the patient demographic or treatment that is keeping deaths much lower in Germany.
US has many more infected than the number show.

It's easier to let someone that don't die slip.
 

Gorgosh

Member
Oct 26, 2017
531
We do test more but as I said earlier about my case, in Germany it's all linked to "having a direct contact to somebody who was infected or was in the hotspot regions within the last two weeks" as well. Symptoms alone are not enough of a reason to get tested either. Though we have our family doctors who will probably order a test in case they think it's the right thing to do.
Also from people I know the whole household gets tested if one of them is getting tested.
 

Thequietone

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,677
So how is the testing right now in California/USA? My brother said they're giving out free tests and that I need to be tested before I can come back home, but I was under the impression that tests were scarce and they likely won't test if I have no symptoms, been travelling or in contact with someone who did? Am I going to be homeless for months at this rate?
 

Cappa

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,076
Been in mandatory quarantine for almost a week now... Working from home. Only allowed out to walk the dog or food shopping pharmacy etc.

No idea how long this is going to last but right now Spain is much worse than where Italy was at at this point and time...

I have a bad feeling we will be in quarantine until minimum may.
 
Nov 1, 2017
346
That’s a ridiculous mortality rate. Any word on if the US is going (or has already) to ease sanctions?
Sorry for the late reply, but i don't think there is any sanction of medical supplies to Iran but overall sanctions will not be lifted.

“We are doing everything we can to facilitate the humanitarian assistance moving in and to make sure that the financial transactions connected to that can take place as well. There is no sanction on medicines going to Iran, there is no sanctions on humanitarian assistance going into that country. They’ve got a terrible problem there and we want that humanitarian, medical assistance to get to the people of Iran" - Secretary of State Mike Pompeo

Thankfully, WHO in collaboration with gulf countries have already sent multiple emergency supply runs.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has shipped a second supply of medical equipment to Iran as the Islamic Republic fights to contain its spreading coronavirus outbreak, which has so far killed more than 800 Iranians
The two aircraft, which took off from Abu Dhabi on March 16, were carrying 32 tons of medical supplies and equipment, including thousands of pairs of gloves, surgical masks and protective equipment, according to the UAE Foreign Ministry.
On Twitter, Seyed Abbas Mousavi, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, praised the UAE, as well as Uzbekistan and the United Nations’ children agency, UNICEF, for their recent deliveries of medical supplies.
 

Naru

Member
May 11, 2019
781
you have to commend china. they managed to contain the virus within two months or so. the economy is now normalizing. sure there still is the possibility that there will be a second wave but they did a good job so far.
Wuhan is still not functional though.

Has this been posted yet? Apparently they found a way to fuck over the poorest people again, people that would need that money the most. I am not surprised though. Not even for a little bit...

 

carlsojo

Member
Oct 28, 2017
11,512
San Francisco
you have to commend china. they managed to contain the virus within two months or so. the economy is now normalizing. sure there still is the possibility that there will be a second wave but they did a good job so far.
Yeah they did such a wonderful job containing the virus, it's a shame they couldn't have done more to contain it within their own borders by stopping tourists from flying all over the world.
 

Maccix

Member
Jan 10, 2018
455
I did some maths back a few days which no one seems to have responded to,but yeah, going from infected to tested and being part of your countries number means with a low r0 of just 2.5 and just 50 percent asymptomatic cases that the real numbers are AT LEAST 11 times of that currently in the systems thanks to the nature of how it spreads and respreads. And that if every even mild symptom case is being tested. Otherwise it's going up to 15-30 times easily.

All of that points out to far more being infected but at a far lower hospitalization and death rate. We get overwhelmed cause it's not thousands of people having it right now,but probably hundreds of thousands per country
 

Sloane

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,068
I did some maths back a few days which no one seems to have responded to,but yeah, going from infected to tested and being part of your countries number means with a low r0 of just 2.5 and just 50 percent asymptomatic cases that the real numbers are AT LEAST 11 times of that currently in the systems thanks to the nature of how it spreads and respreads. And that if every even mild symptom case is being tested. Otherwise it's going up to 15-30 times easily.

All of that points out to far more being infected but at a far lower hospitalization and death rate. We get overwhelmed cause it's not thousands of people having it right now,but probably hundreds of thousands per country
Yeah, I agree, seems likely. Wish it was possible to test an entire city in one of the hotspots to get a better idea of the actual numbers.
 

Maccix

Member
Jan 10, 2018
455
Yeah, I agree, seems likely. Wish it was possible to test an entire city in one of the hotspots to get a better idea of the actual numbers.
I guess wuhan will give us better and better real numbers in their aftermath. But if people get immune for at least few months which is predicted, the virus can become manageable in a far shorter timeframe than many predicted, because there won't be that many spikes anymore anytime after the first wave.
 

Naru

Member
May 11, 2019
781
It's funny when you turn on the TV or Radio and they tell you to stay home. You open up social media and you see the pictures and videos from celebrities telling you to stay home. And there are Millions of people who can not do that and have to take the bus and/or the train every day to go to work. I mean, I get it some things have to go on but still...
 

Sloane

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,068
I guess wuhan will give us better and better real numbers in their aftermath. But if people get immune for at least few months which is predicted, the virus can become manageable in a far shorter timeframe than many predicted, because there won't be that many spikes anymore anytime after the first wave.
Yeah. Also, the first wave probably wouldn't last as long as expected -- then again, I'm not sure there are any predictions on how long it might last anyway?
 

sweetmini

Member
Jun 12, 2019
1,685
so? we dont know if this was a man-made virus or id it was a mutation that just happened to start in china. if so, it could have started anywhere.
It started in nature, it originated most likely from bats, likely not transmittable to humans in its original form... then it developed into intermediary hosts until one mutated strain in these could reach humans, and it was passed on by trafficking or authorized business (depending if the species is forbidden for sale or not) of live wildlife in Wuhan "fishmarket" (common point of the first cases, identified through public surveillance systems and/or interrogation).


It has to be known that the original human transmitted strain has mutated into a much more virulent type (and with higher mutational activity), and that's the one that's being circulated internationally (iirc the ratio in china at the end of feb was 30% ancestral S type and 70% mutated L type).
However both are close enough for now, so a an successful drug for one should be active for the other, and same for a vaccine 1 1/2 or 2 years from now...
 
Last edited:

igordennis

Member
Oct 25, 2017
296
it started on China.
I am confused as to why this a response to that post, it addresses nothing on it. They commended China's successful suppression of the disease with the extreme measures they took. The fact that the virus started there on a random mutation chance has no bearing on how the government actually tackled the virus threat. The way they handled it is way better than most western countries are doing so far that's for sure.

It is already too late for most western countries to control the disease before the level of infection Wuhan got to because of how slow governments are being in regards to implementing necessary measures to suppress it. The next months are going to be insane.
 

Frankfurter

Member
Oct 27, 2017
605
I did some maths back a few days which no one seems to have responded to,but yeah, going from infected to tested and being part of your countries number means with a low r0 of just 2.5 and just 50 percent asymptomatic cases that the real numbers are AT LEAST 11 times of that currently in the systems thanks to the nature of how it spreads and respreads. And that if every even mild symptom case is being tested. Otherwise it's going up to 15-30 times easily.

All of that points out to far more being infected but at a far lower hospitalization and death rate. We get overwhelmed cause it's not thousands of people having it right now,but probably hundreds of thousands per country
Interestingly enough it's a "good" thing that probably many more are actually infected, as you said.
 

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
8,119
I am confused as to why this a response to that post, it addresses nothing on it. They commended China's successful suppression of the disease with the extreme measures they took. The fact that the virus started there on a random mutation chance has no bearing on how the government actually tackled the virus threat. The way they handled it is way better than most western countries are doing so far that's for sure.

It is already too late for most western countries to control the disease before the level of infection Wuhan got to because of how slow governments are being in regards to implementing necessary measures to suppress it. The next months are going to be insane.
How can you say they successfully suppressed the virus when it spread all over the world from there?

We‘re literally in this situation because they failed to contain it in china.
 
May 25, 2018
9,270
I’m not sure if Japan has lucked out or if the storm is still brewing here.
They did the right thing and started tracking down clusters before the numbers exploded.
They also have:
about 13 hospital beds per 1,000 people, the highest among G7 nations and more than triple the rate for Italy, the U.S., U.K. and Canada, according to World Bank data.
Here are some more thorough analysis on why Japan is such an oddity so far: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/20/national/coronavirus-explosion-expected-japan/#.XnWaM8AifDs

 

igordennis

Member
Oct 25, 2017
296
How can you say they successfully suppressed the virus when it spread all over the world from there?

We‘re literally in this situation because they failed to contain it in china.
I think it is basically impossible to 100% contain a highly contagious new virus like this. Before authorities and medical experts even realise that there is a new strand of virus going around there will already be hundreds of people spreading it and by the time everyone is traced and all their contacts quarantined, at least one person will have already got on a flight and infected other travellers and the virus is international. The successful suppression i refer to is them being able to cut the virus growth in its tracks within China, which is all they can do after the virus escaped the country.
 
Oct 26, 2017
4,041
so? we dont know if this was a man-made virus or id it was a mutation that just happened to start in china. if so, it could have started anywhere.
There's a reason these new viruses keep popping up in China and not other places. So no it couldn't have started anywhere. Not to mention they tried their hardest to clamp down on any news about how bad the outbreak was:
 

plow

Member
Oct 28, 2017
973
They did the right thing and started tracking down clusters before the numbers exploded.
They also have:

Here are some more thorough analysis on why Japan is such an oddity so far: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/20/national/coronavirus-explosion-expected-japan/#.XnWaM8AifDs

Having enough "Hospital" beds doesn't mean shit if you don't have enough ICU beds which are needed in this crisis. In fact, Japan has one of the lowest in any developed country beside UK.

The number of the ICU beds per population (Fig. 1) is the lowest among developed countries after the UK [2], while the total number of hospital beds is the highest.
LINK
 

Maccix

Member
Jan 10, 2018
455
Yeah. Also, the first wave probably wouldn't last as long as expected -- then again, I'm not sure there are any predictions on how long it might last anyway?
I assumed the round about 3 months that it took wuhans numbers to get down, would be one wave as there were no notable dips or rises in that curve
 

Strings

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,157
Fuming right now. Family member who has been ignoring all forms of social distancing bangs on the door screaming about an emergency. Let her in only to have her go on about some really disgusting racist shit, how she has to say it's an emergency because no one will answer the door anywhere, then goes at me for being evasive / virus can't hurt us blah blah just a horrible situation.

Call up my high risk dad to vent (60s, severe lung issues, high blood pressure, basically runs the gamut of factors you don't want), only to find out she did the exact same thing to him earlier in the day.
 

Naru

Member
May 11, 2019
781
Is there any statistic or information that shows how many people under 50 or 60 etc had to get hospitalized because of COVID-19? I can't really find anything besides the usual "mostly old people blah blah". They must have this information, where is it?
 

plow

Member
Oct 28, 2017
973
Just wanna leave this here:


Dude has the Virus. Is living with another Dude, whos tested negative recently. Until then ( and even now ) they weren even practicing social dinstancing but going on as normal ( In their quarantine of course ).

Dude also had a lot of contact with other people and none of them got the virus. So while yes, this virus is highly contagious, this is no measles.
 

Blade Runner

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,461
I know conspiracy theorists will never let go but this all goes to show it’s not a bioweapon. It’d be the shittiest bioweapon ever unless the users’ master plan is to infect themselves, too.
 

SmokeMaxX

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,012
Ummmm. Wouldn’t an R0 value of 25 or 26 be a good thing? That would drastically cut down on the time until we have herd immunity?
That goes against the whole concept of flattening the curve. Yes, the population will get herd immunity faster, but you're gonna have a significantly smaller population as hospitals become several times more overcrowded.
 

Cocolina

Member
Oct 28, 2017
5,036

SmokeMaxX

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,012
How can you say they successfully suppressed the virus when it spread all over the world from there?

We‘re literally in this situation because they failed to contain it in china.
Every country in the world is getting their shot at containing it. They've all failed. How would you propose to contain it? Right now, you can't. All you can do is flatten the curve and theirs looks a lot better than every Western nation right now.
 

plow

Member
Oct 28, 2017
973

BackLogJoe

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
788
That goes against the whole concept of flattening the curve. Yes, the population will get herd immunity faster, but you're gonna have a significantly smaller population as hospitals become several times more overcrowded.
I totally get that. It seems that Trump isn’t willing to lock down the country or ramp up production so we are heading for the herd immunity option, right?
 

Jisgsaw

Member
Oct 27, 2017
878
Yeah, I agree, seems likely. Wish it was possible to test an entire city in one of the hotspots to get a better idea of the actual numbers.
They did that it one town in Italy. Turns out it actually helped to completely kill the virus there, would've thought?
The 3,300 or so citizens of Vo' Euganeo, just 30 miles (50km) from Venice, were all swabbed for COVID-19 in late February.
Anyone who tested positive was immediately quarantined to stem the spread of the disease – even if they weren't showing symptoms – local media reported.
Two weeks later, mass testing showed the infection rate had dropped by 12 times from three per cent of the population to just 0.25 per cent.
 
Last edited:

Dreaver

Member
Oct 27, 2017
181
I show corona symptoms (dry cough, headache, pain in body and a bit harder to breath). It's very, very mild. Usually I would ignore it, but just to be safe. I don't want to risk infecting others. It could be a normal infection or whstever.. I don't feel sick really.
There are a lot of corona infections in this city. I think I'll avoid people the next few days..