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Metto

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
12,108
So if the Virus isn't as harmful looking at the bigger picture and it's mutating to be less infectious does that mean the endgame should be on figuring out how to treat the aggressive reactions to the Virus rather than a Vaccine? Maybe there's a point where we can't keep from people getting it but we should focus on making sure they don't die from it at least
 

jfkgoblue

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
5,650
I have no idea about the validity of your link.

But in the comments, someone says...

"Most symptoms would come from the inflammatory response so it's possible people with weaker immune systems would show fewer symptoms. "

is that how immune systems work? If you have a weak immune system, it's less likely to "attack" the virus, so you show fewer symptoms (at least initially)?
With most viruses, and from I've read this virus isn't any different, the majority of symptoms come from the immune system's response to the virus. E.g. a fever is just your immune system trying to flush out a virus.
 
Oct 25, 2017
805
I work for a company that makes rugs ... yet we're essential according to local government and the owner. People coughing .. nobody can do their jobs out on our floors with 6 feet of separation.
 
Jan 31, 2018
1,430
Earlier, the World Health Organization explained it in these simple terms:

  • It tool 67 days from the first reported case or Covid-19 until the first 100,000 cases were confirmed
  • It took 11 days for until the second 100,000 cases were confirmed
  • It took just four days for until the third 100,000 cases were confirmed
theguardian.com
 

Deleted member 48991

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 24, 2018
753
Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but worldwide, at least, it looks like things will stabilize for a few days if it follows the China's pattern. Or Italy maybe, HOPEFULLY, starting to get a drop in cases is going to skewer the numbers.
I think it will still take months for the numbers to stabilize globally. US is currently the country with the highest daily growth rate and not all states have taken adequate measures. The states which did take measures mostly took them in the past few days/week so they will still contribute to the growth for a few more days. The states which have not taken significant measures will be contributing to the growth for another month. Many countries have not taken adequate measures and could contribute to another wave of infections. I really hope summer will help suppress the growth rate, but even if that's the case autumn and winter will be scary as new waves of infection might flare up.
Really interesting study from Singapore that I haven't seen posted indicating that it's following the trajectory of other coronavirus like SARS and MERS, mutating to actually become less infectious in order to be less detectable in the human body.

I hope this can be generalized to the wider population but the small sample size of the study (N=8) makes it insignificant.
 

ty_hot

Banned
Dec 14, 2017
7,176
Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but worldwide, at least, it looks like things will stabilize for a few days if it follows the China's pattern. Or Italy maybe, HOPEFULLY, starting to get a drop in cases is going to skewer the numbers.
Too optimistic... Brazil is 2 weeks behind the USA, it will blow next month in here. Depending on hoe you see our numbers we are either between Spain and Italy (when they were starting) or even worse than Italy. Add to that that we dont have such infrastructure (but at least we have free universal healthcare, unlike USA) and that our governors have to literally fight against the president in order to protect the population from the virus.
 

Rory

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,159
Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but worldwide, at least, it looks like things will stabilize for a few days if it follows the China's pattern. Or Italy maybe, HOPEFULLY, starting to get a drop in cases is going to skewer the numbers.
China had a second reinfection wave because they lifted the restrictions too soon iirc. I dont think that's something we should aim for.
 
Mar 7, 2020
2,963
USA
Well...the hospital I go to for immunotherapy is taking the corona virus pretty seriously. I didn't even realise they have metal shutters that can section off the hospital. So they have sectioned off the main lobby, and other areas. At the main entrance there will be a nurse there to check to see if you are there for appointment, or for other treatments, and depending on what you need, you will need to go in the hospital from different entrances. They have also locked all the bathroom doors so if you need to go to one, you need to get a nurse to unlock it for you first.

TLoRYwv.jpg
 

giallo

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,224
Seoul
I was walking around the other day, and I noticed more people on the street, and a few less masks here and there in Seoul. Hopefully, people aren't becoming too complacent.































 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
High incidence of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, Chongqing, China

Some interesting discussion. It may be possible that we've been severely underestimating the true number of infections. If this is the case, then the fatality rate would also be greatly overstated.

Some people are speculating that perhaps China didn't really contain the virus after all, and that they instead achieved herd immunity... Seems far-fetched to me. In my opinion, the biggest thing that debunks this is the fact that the rate of infection dropped as soon China implemented the lockdown (as per this analysis).

Thoughts?
Problem is the "China reached herd immunity" train of thought doesn't really line up with Italy's numbers. Like:
How do you explain a country the size of Italy having twice the deaths of a country the size of China if China had hit herd immunity?
 

Chikor

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
14,239
China had a second reinfection wave because they lifted the restrictions too soon iirc. I dont think that's something we should aim for.
Almost all of China's new cases are imported from abroad at this point, the issue isn't so much that they lifted restrictions too soon.
It's not a huge huge issue anyway, since they are testing and quarantining everyone that come into the country right now.

In many places they are slowly opening things up. Still not schools, but you have more and more businesses being reopened, even bars and clubs, though obviously they have screening and testing infrastructure that allows for that.
 

Afrikan

Member
Oct 28, 2017
16,970
Really interesting study from Singapore that I haven't seen posted indicating that it's following the trajectory of other coronavirus like SARS and MERS, mutating to actually become less infectious in order to be less detectable in the human body.


In theory, the virus wants to infect a lot of people, but not kill them and be detected. It wants to be able to easily and freely duplicate without drawing much attention to itself.

I guess I'm one of the few who didn't know viruses could do such a thing.... hell that viruses even think about it! O_o

Like they have little brains?
 

giallo

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,224
Seoul
they have extensive testing and contact tracing plus don't they have some kind of national ID system ?

There have been some hotspots in Daegu and here in Seoul as recent as last week. Rigorous testing is done, but outside of that, it's business as usual. Entrances in to public spaces like malls may or may not have hand sanitizer and someone operating a thermal device to check temperatures. I'd say it's pretty lax in Seoul overall atm.
 

Luminish

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,508
Denver
Wow, apparently about 1 in 180 people age 18-50 who get the flu go to the hospital and 1 in 5000 die according to the CDC.

We probably should be more scared of there being simply a flu with absolutely no vaccine to hold it back, nonetheless an even deadlier and more contagious flu.
 

Elshoelace

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,372
I guess I'm one of the few who didn't know viruses could do such a thing.... hell that viruses even think about it! O_o

Like they have little brains?
No, like everything selection favors higher fitness. If for example a virus has too high of a mortality it will be harder to spread and that line will go down in the overall population while a less deadly and more infectious virus would increase in the population. Just evolution.
 

Futureman

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,401
why is it not called bat flu?

I was reading that the pangolin could reservoir host for the virus. Pangolin flu?
 

Halbrand

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,615
Main takeaways from Italy's data from a few days ago:

  • Median age of deceased is 80.5.
  • 99% of deceased are over 50.
  • No Italians under 30 have died, despite overwhelmed hospitals.
  • 99.2% already had one or more serious health conditions (cancer, chronic heart disease, chronic liver disease, etc)
  • About half already had three or more serious health conditions.
Other facts about Italy:
  • 24% smoke.
  • Italy had 24,981 deaths that could be attributed to flu in the 2016/2017 season.
  • Northern Italy has the highest concentration of PM2.5 particulate pollution in Europe.
why is it not called bat flu?

I was reading that the pangolin could reservoir host for the virus. Pangolin flu?
Because it's not flu
 

Rhaknar

Member
Oct 26, 2017
42,490
So if the Virus isn't as harmful looking at the bigger picture and it's mutating to be less infectious does that mean the endgame should be on figuring out how to treat the aggressive reactions to the Virus rather than a Vaccine? Maybe there's a point where we can't keep from people getting it but we should focus on making sure they don't die from it at least

im not sure where the fuck you are getting this notion if you have been paying attention to Italy and Spain.
 

JetBlackPanda

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,505
Echo Base
Seems like this is becoming political and the next few weeks will be bootstrap hard working conservatives that want to get back to work vs. lazy scared liberals. I'm already seeing it. People posting the lockdown is over and it was all an overreaction.



the fuck is wrong with people.
 
Oct 27, 2017
17,973
Legit expect people to go back to work next week
What a shitshow the USA is, my god

Don't even have the drive through stations set up yet or enough tests
Depends on your state. No way NY NJ CT WA CA go back to work next week - they all have hotspot cases. Any state starting stay-at-home now,will have to go through their own two-week eval period as they construct drive-thru testing sites. There is no actual 15-day challenge outside of VP Pence's one sheet of paper.
 

Futureman

Member
Oct 26, 2017
9,401
Main takeaways from Italy's data from a few days ago:

  • Median age of deceased is 80.5.
  • 99% of deceased are over 50.
  • No Italians under 30 have died, despite overwhelmed hospitals.
  • 99.2% already had one or more serious health conditions (cancer, chronic heart disease, chronic liver disease, etc)
  • About half already had three or more serious health conditions.
Other facts about Italy:
  • 24% smoke.
  • Italy had 24,981 deaths that could be attributed to flu in the 2016/2017 season.
  • Northern Italy has the highest concentration of PM2.5 particulate pollution in Europe.

Because it's not flu

Ha wow. Yea I'm dumb. I'm just reading up on infectious diseases in general and got them mixed up.
 

Luminish

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,508
Denver
Main takeaways from Italy's data from a few days ago:

  • Median age of deceased is 80.5.
  • 99% of deceased are over 50.
  • No Italians under 30 have died, despite overwhelmed hospitals.
  • 99.2% already had one or more serious health conditions (cancer, chronic heart disease, chronic liver disease, etc)
  • About half already had three or more serious health conditions.
Other facts about Italy:
  • 24% smoke.
  • Italy had 24,981 deaths that could be attributed to flu in the 2016/2017 season.
  • Northern Italy has the highest concentration of PM2.5 particulate pollution in Europe.

Because it's not flu
These stats are very misleading because the fact that it's so extremely deadly for the elderly overshadows how it's still very deadly for the non-elderly. Ratio of the ages of the dead aren't really relevant to anything. Also, high blood pressure is a "serious health condition" you left out even though it's the most common comorbidity by far.

1.1% deathrate of people under 50 is the significant stat that was left out.

edit: That last part was based on "36 of 3200 (1.1%) COVID-19 positive patients under the age of 50 have died. ", but I wonder if that's a translation error because 3200 is also the number of dead patients analyzed.
 
Last edited:

Halbrand

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,615
These stats are very misleading because the fact that it's so extremely deadly for the elderly overshadows how it's still very deadly for the non-elderly. Ratio of the ages of the dead aren't really relevant to anything. Also, high blood pressure is a "serious health condition" you left out even though it's the most common comorbidity by far.

1.1% deathrate of people under 50 is the significant stat that was left out.
Of course it can still be deadly to younger people, and yes hypertension appears to be the top pre-existing condition that can increase chances of death, something that people have increasingly as they get older.

99% of deceased are over 50 = 1% of deceased were under 50.
 

GameChanger

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,935
These stats are very misleading because the fact that it's so extremely deadly for the elderly overshadows how it's still very deadly for the non-elderly. Ratio of the ages of the dead aren't really relevant to anything. Also, high blood pressure is a "serious health condition" you left out even though it's the most common comorbidity by far.
Yeah but I would still not be alarmed by that statistic because it does not take into account younger people with preexisting medical conditions and diseases like HIV, Coronary Heart Disease, Cancers or Lung diseases.
 

Vex

Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,213
How is it possible China has zero new cases? I ask because doesn't the virus have an incubation period of ~14 days? So even if in total lockdown, there would still be new cases popping up for at least two weeks after? I mean.... Not even one person was infected but asymptomatic? Huh?

I feel like I am missing something here?
 

Stoopkid

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,367
How is it possible China has zero new cases? I ask because doesn't the virus have an incubation period of ~14 days? So even if in total lockdown, there would still be new cases popping up for at least two weeks after? I mean.... Not even one person was infected but asymptomatic? Huh?

I feel like I am missing something here?
CCP
 

Sloane

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,244
High incidence of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, Chongqing, China

Some interesting discussion. It may be possible that we've been severely underestimating the true number of infections. If this is the case, then the fatality rate would also be greatly overstated.

Some people are speculating that perhaps China didn't really contain the virus after all, and that they instead achieved herd immunity... Seems far-fetched to me. In my opinion, the biggest thing that debunks this is the fact that the rate of infection dropped as soon China implemented the lockdown (as per this analysis).

Thoughts?
Number of infections is definitely much higher and fatality rate much lower than estimated in my opinion. I really wish we could test an entire city of ~100k people in Germany or Italy or wherever to get a better idea.
 

Rory

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,159
That was Hong Kong. And they did, driven in part by people returning from overseas.

Almost all of China's new cases are imported from abroad at this point, the issue isn't so much that they lifted restrictions too soon.
It's not a huge huge issue anyway, since they are testing and quarantining everyone that come into the country right now.

In many places they are slowly opening things up. Still not schools, but you have more and more businesses being reopened, even bars and clubs, though obviously they have screening and testing infrastructure that allows for that.
So my point still stands. We shouldn't jump to the false conclusion that it's save to reduce measures after 2-4 weeks when it took china almost 3-4 month.

Especially given that we do not test/screen enough, and people do not bother to take safety measures serious or precautions at all (party, not wearing masks in public etc.).

We do not have the resources, nor the abilities, and there has to pass way more time.

For how long have schools been closed in china?
 

Zerokku

Member
Oct 25, 2017
339
How is it possible China has zero new cases? I ask because doesn't the virus have an incubation period of ~14 days? So even if in total lockdown, there would still be new cases popping up for at least two weeks after? I mean.... Not even one person was infected but asymptomatic? Huh?

I feel like I am missing something here?

Think about it this way, the virus will die in the wild without a host. With enough isolation, disinfection/cleanliness, it has nowhere to spread to and it would die. If that is true everywhere, then it will no longer spread because theres no version of it alive to spread. The virus either died on surfaces after a few days (or from disinfectant like lysol, soap, etc.), or died without passing infection due to people in isolation/quarantine.

Probably not explained well but I hope you get the gist of it.
 

Lulu

Saw the truth behind the copied door
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
26,680
Number of infections is definitely much higher and fatality rate much lower than estimated in my opinion. I really wish we could test an entire city of ~100k people in Germany or Italy or wherever to get a better idea.
Well Iceland seems to be proving this
 

Lishi

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,284
Think about it this way, the virus will die in the wild without a host. With enough isolation, disinfection/cleanliness, it has nowhere to spread to and it would die. If that is true everywhere, then it will no longer spread because theres no version of it alive to spread. The virus either died on surfaces after a few days (or from disinfectant like lysol, soap, etc.), or died without passing infection due to people in isolation/quarantine.

Probably not explained well but I hope you get the gist of it.


I would change no new case to no detected new case.

Probably still few around that slipped testing due shifting focus.

Still probably not a lot.
 
May 26, 2018
24,006
Prediction: Trump will say "I'm unilaterally lifting restrictions! State of emergency is over!"

Then some dumb people will try to restart business. A ton of people will get sick.

The Chinese and the Democrats will be blamed, simultaneously.
 

Adventureracing

The Fallen
Nov 7, 2017
8,027
Wow, apparently about 1 in 180 people age 18-50 who get the flu go to the hospital and 1 in 5000 die according to the CDC.

We probably should be more scared of there being simply a flu with absolutely no vaccine to hold it back, nonetheless an even deadlier and more contagious flu.

Have you not heard of the Spanish flu? We absolutely are scared of another crazy flu variation.
 

Irminsul

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,034
edition.cnn.com

How an Austrian ski resort helped coronavirus spread across Europe

Henrik Lerfeldt has fond memories of Kitzloch, a popular restaurant and bar in the Austrian ski resort town of Ischgl, where he partied several nights while on vacation three weeks ago.

playing beer pong while pandemic


result: hundreds of cases
Yeah, that has already caused quite some commotion in Austrian politics and the press. Let's just say people are not happy with how Tyrolean authorities have handled Ischgl and how it's very apparent it's not politicians who run the show, but the tourism industry.