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El Bombastico

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
36,048
What does that actually look like with interstate highways? Traffic rolls through those things all day long. I live about 40 miles from the Idaho border. Tons of people commute to my city in Washington for work. All of a sudden it's a six hour wait to get into Washington?

Yep, you checkpoint that shit. And if it results in long ass lines to get in or out, tough. Its what we all should've done back in February.
 

RoKKeR

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,385
Numbers continue to stagger me for the US. Nearing 300k cases, over 7k deaths... Jesus. Horrifying loss of life taking place.
 

Deleted member 1476

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,449

maabus1999

Member
Oct 26, 2017
8,958
Yep, you checkpoint that shit. And if it results in long ass lines to get in or out, tough. Its what we all should've done back in February.
You realize some for some states that would be near impossible to put a checkpoint at every border road?

If you have quick and mass testing done frequently, it will allow some form of control (we're not there yet).

If you develop an anti-body test, you can find out who has had it since there is a possibilty the majority of cases are undetected/untested. We may find this number to be surprisingly high after a few months.

If you have strict protocols for locations like schools including temperature checks, it will help mitigate outbreaks.

If they find drugs that can mitigate symptoms, then you don't have to wait for a vaccine.

All four of the above are things that can be done to slowly allow normalcy back into the world. I do expect months of lock down but by summer you'll probably see things start to reopen as progress is made on some of the points mentioned above.
 

Typhonsentra

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,948
Numbers continue to stagger me for the US. Nearing 300k cases, over 7k deaths... Jesus. Horrifying loss of life taking place.
The number I'm more interested is total tests daily. The positive tests are taking a larger and larger chunk of the overall figure, meaning we are missing a lit of people even with how restricted the testing is.
 

devilhawk

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,536
I'm no epidemiologist, but if I understand what I'm reading in that 100,000-200,000 death model is it's based on the assumption that mid April is based on the time it took to go from lockdown to maximum death per day in Wuhan, and fitting the rate of death and time of lockdowns we've seen.

What scares me is I'm really not sure we have a Wuhan style lockdown in any state, and it's a fact that lots of states still have no official lockdown order at all. Now that we're a week out from a lot of lockdowns, is there any good indication that the rate of increase is slowing because of these lockdowns yet?

I can clearly see an immediate drop in new cases as people decide to stay home instead of getting tested or are denied a test from a test shortage, but I was hoping for more than that.
Those models paint a really horrible outlook for Georgia and Mass. Sneakily, Iowa is in for some trouble considering they haven't sheltered in place yet. Hospitals turning a second floor into ICU beds has been a pretty common preparation, but states are in real trouble if there is an expectation to have 5-7X your number of ICU beds.
Funny, I don't feel like that's a waste in any way. Thanks, Bill!
There was some good articles the other week advocating for ramping up a number of the top candidates now. The hope is at least one is efficacious. The money and lives saved if one hits, would outweigh the delay of not starting production now.
 
Oct 25, 2017
27,845
Those models paint a really horrible outlook for Georgia and Mass. Sneakily, Iowa is in for some trouble considering they haven't sheltered in place yet. Hospitals turning a second floor into ICU beds has been a pretty common preparation, but states are in real trouble if there is an expectation to have 5-7X your number of ICU beds.

There was some good articles the other week advocating for ramping up a number of the top candidates now. The hope is at least one is efficacious. The money and lives saved if one hits, would outweigh the delay of not starting production now.

This seems like a good strategy to somewhat speed up the process https://www.theglobeandmail.com/can...on-reveal-whether-canadian-vaccine-bid-has-a/
 

El Bombastico

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
36,048
We're really gonna have to look at the US' situation state by state, due to the factors of geography, population density, and of course, politics. Some states maybe, hopefully, are gonna make it through okay. But others I dread are going to match or exceed Italy and Spain's numbers all by themselves.
 

devilhawk

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,536
You put state troopers/national guard at the borders and test anyone that wants to come in. Same with the airports.
You could get away with it in Washington. One side ocean, one side international border, one side mostly river. Spokane, Walla Walla, and the border towns would be tough in the East. May just be easier to checkpoint the highways before the Cascades - like coming out of Yakima, Ellensburg and Wenatchee.
 

linkboy

Member
Oct 26, 2017
13,690
Reno
We're really gonna have to look at the US' situation state by state, due to the factors of geography, population density, and of course, politics. Some states maybe, hopefully, are gonna make it through okay. But others I dread are going to match or exceed Italy and Spain's numbers all by themselves.

Exactly, I wish more people would realize that.

Each state is going to have to be treated an it's own "country". Each state is going to have it's own curve and each's state economy will have to be opened up based on how their doing.
 
Oct 27, 2017
17,973
Exactly, I wish more people would realize that.

Each state is going to have to be treated an it's own "country". Each state is going to have it's own curve and each's state economy will have to be opened up based on how their doing.
Yes, though economies are also centered on regions which may include multiple states.

And the governor of CT today outlined three separate curves for the three major population centers of the state, each a couple of weeks apart.
 

Porkepik

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,339
Vietnam is doing relatively well. They were under 50 until 6-7 planes of tourists came and a bunch of them turned out to have Coronavirus. One British couple, for example, ended up directly infecting something like 16 other people.

Now, the country as a whole is at around 270 cases and a full, national lockdown has been in place since Wednesday.
However they are doing things that wont ever be possible in our countries (quarantine camps outside of major cities, contact tracing and full confinement for ten of thousands from these 270 cases especially from an outbreak in an ha noi hospital) . They shut off all international flights last week and just a few flights left in the country. Stay home has been implemented since just last week but school have not reopened since new year . Flights and visitor from China were banned in january, sadly they waited a bit too long to ban visitors from europe. Fines for older people if they go out too they must stay home. Not many tests done though they rely mostly on quarantine . My girlfriend who is vietnamese and a manager in an international company is lucky enough to work from home one week out of two and is still getting paid but so many people who are living day to day will be in a bad situation quickly. Taking all into account I still think its safer there than here in Quebec (which is safer than belgium where my parents live and are hunkering down(70 and 72 year old) or our neighbors from nee york state. Sadly my visa for this month is unusable, no planes and borders closed . I may look selfish but whenever border opens and plane are flying I ll be in one as soon as possible, haven't seen her since january and with all of this i m not hopeful it will be before end of summer.
 

4Tran

Member
Nov 4, 2017
1,531
I'm no epidemiologist, but if I understand what I'm reading in that 100,000-200,000 death model is it's based on the assumption that mid April is based on the time it took to go from lockdown to maximum death per day in Wuhan, and fitting the rate of death and time of lockdowns we've seen.

What scares me is I'm really not sure we have a Wuhan style lockdown in any state, and it's a fact that lots of states still have no official lockdown order at all. Now that we're a week out from a lot of lockdowns, is there any good indication that the rate of increase is slowing because of these lockdowns yet?

I can clearly see an immediate drop in new cases as people decide to stay home instead of getting tested or are denied a test from a test shortage, but I was hoping for more than that.
I think that you're going to be right. I'm starting to think that any country actually treating Covid-19 with any degree of seriousness either has to have the kind of testing, screening and contact tracing that South Korea has or they'll have to lockdown as tightly as Italy. Right now in the US the tightest lockdowns are in Washington and California but these are still very porous compared to doing it properly. Couple that with the level of federal incompetence and it's fair to argue that the US as a whole has done very little to mitigate the effect of this disease. As such, the White House's projections are based on a proper response so the real world outcomes can only be worse.
 

Mr_Nothin

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
705
Those models paint a really horrible outlook for Georgia and Mass. Sneakily, Iowa is in for some trouble considering they haven't sheltered in place yet. Hospitals turning a second floor into ICU beds has been a pretty common preparation, but states are in real trouble if there is an expectation to have 5-7X your number of ICU beds.
What models are you looking at in regards to GA?
 

Bear Patrol

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,042
However they are doing things that wont ever be possible in our countries (quarantine camps outside of major cities, contact tracing and full confinement for ten of thousands from these 270 cases especially from an outbreak in an ha noi hospital) . They shut off all international flights last week and just a few flights left in the country. Stay home has been implemented since just last week but school have not reopened since new year . Flights and visitor from China were banned in january, sadly they waited a bit too long to ban visitors from europe. Fines for older people if they go out too they must stay home. Not many tests done though they rely mostly on quarantine . My girlfriend who is vietnamese and a manager in an international company is lucky enough to work from home one week out of two and is still getting paid but so many people who are living day to day will be in a bad situation quickly. Taking all into account I still think its safer there than here in Quebec (which is safer than belgium where my parents live and are hunkering down(70 and 72 year old) or our neighbors from nee york state. Sadly my visa for this month is unusable, no planes and borders closed . I may look selfish but whenever border opens and plane are flying I ll be in one as soon as possible, haven't seen her since january and with all of this i m not hopeful it will be before end of summer.
Yup, all this is true too. I'm living in Vietnam for work currently so I've been here for a little over a month and they've definitely gone further than most countries. That said, none of the steps they've taken are something that other countries could not, they're just steps that most would be unwilling to take. Even the US attempted quarantine camps on military bases early on but simply let people escape from them and then just gave up.

Given the developing nature of their health infrastructure, they had to take these steps as an epidemic would get very bad here. I'm from the US and I'd far prefer to be here in Vietnam as opposed to back home for the quarantine, sadly. I'm sure that the majority of the population can't sustain this for much longer without serious issues but I think the government chose the lesser of two evils with the steps they've taken so far.

Like you, I'm currently separated from my partner since my wife was visiting her family in the US Midwest before she came out to join me. Once the travel restrictions are lifted, you best believe she'll be on the first available plane over.

All the best to you and your girlfriend and stay strong.
 

unrealist

Member
Oct 27, 2017
757
FUFWzrel.jpg
 

Menx64

Member
Oct 30, 2017
5,774
Wondering for how long countries will try to keep everything close... I understand is the right thing to do, but people need to eat, And unfortunately the majority of the countries in the world can not sustain a prolonged period of shutdown... The world is going to be incredible scary in the next few months.
 
Oct 27, 2017
45,199
Seattle
You could get away with it in Washington. One side ocean, one side international border, one side mostly river. Spokane, Walla Walla, and the border towns would be tough in the East. May just be easier to checkpoint the highways before the Cascades - like coming out of Yakima, Ellensburg and Wenatchee.

Absolutely, you only have 4-5 roads that cross between western Washington and eastern. Would sort of split the state in half though. Feels like some dystopian shit
 

sweetmini

Member
Jun 12, 2019
3,921
I got to say I really love Seoul's fashion sense. They all look slick af.

They don't have clown hair and their jeans are not ripped apart, so they don't look like trash (fashionably western trash but yeah... jeans full of holes, hair half done and homeless beard ? I suuuuuuure love western trends....*cough cough* *pre-confinment observation, now it's normal to not have hair tended or... well... no reason not to shave, virus love beards* ) ;)
 

Antiwhippy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
33,458
They don't have clown hair and their jeans are not ripped apart, so they don't look like trash (fashionably western trash but yeah... jeans full of holes, hair half done and homeless beard ? I suuuuuuure love western trends....*cough cough* *pre-confinment observation, now it's normal to not have hair tended or... well... no reason not to shave, virus love beards* ) ;)

You definitely haven't seen K-pop fashion lmao.
 

Phabh

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,701
The US (Government) is looking very detestable at the moment. I wouldn't want to have anything to do with this commercial «partner» going forward.
 

Frankfurter

Member
Oct 27, 2017
848
Worldometers.info introduced a new data point "total cases". Does anyone know where this is from? The number of those in some countries sounds way to low to be true (e.g. France 101k tests -> 82k positive).
 

Mr_Nothin

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
705
Oct 27, 2017
5,000

eonden

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,085
Worldometers.info introduced a new data point "total cases". Does anyone know where this is from? The number of those in some countries sounds way to low to be true (e.g. France 101k tests -> 82k positive).
I think you mean "Total tests". I think they are taken from the last time the government tell them, which can be quite outdated,. For instance Spain numbers are from 25th of March while Spain is doing at least 15k daily tests (so it would mean a minimum extra of 150k tests).
 

Ambitious

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,339
Have a 100.8 fever, headache, bouts of coughing on and off this morning, and feeling lethargic....

Called the local hospital and basically told me to stay home, call back if the fever gets worse.

I don't feel *too* bad but with all this, my paranoia is in overdrive.

That was me a few weeks ago. But my fever was even higher, and I also had diarrhea and a runny nose.
I spent several hours in the queue of our national corona hotline, only for them to tell me that they won't test me and that I should just stay at home.

I'm perfectly healthy again, but I was scared for a few days back then.
 

Cass_Se

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,125
Would rather have the money "wasted" on that than on stupid space rockets.


That's a bizarre complaint given that NASA's budget is less than 3% of DoD's budget. As a human race we waste so much funds in useless ways and you complain about one thing that could actually develop our understanding as a species, smh
 

Spine Crawler

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
10,228

Frankfurter

Member
Oct 27, 2017
848
I think you mean "Total tests". I think they are taken from the last time the government tell them, which can be quite outdated,. For instance Spain numbers are from 25th of March while Spain is doing at least 15k daily tests (so it would mean a minimum extra of 150k tests).

Welp yeah, I meant total tests lol. Thanks for the information. Seems like this is a more or less worthless figure. Atleast they should put a note on there when it was last updated.