donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
620
ITT, predict for the NPD November 2018 retail period (November 4-December 1, 2018) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but SalesEra followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?
Trust me said:
To have fun? To share thoughts and speculation with a like mined group of people? To be able to communicate directly with individuals who study this industry for a living?
ethomaz said:
Since 2010 I guess we don't get official numbers anymore... that doesn't mean we don't get the numbers.

The ranking and results are based in real numbers.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Tuesday, December 11th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: November 4-December 1, 2018 (4 weeks, October was 4 weeks)
NPD Physical Results Release: Thursday, December 13th @ 4 p.m. EST (public thread with physical+digital posted 5 days later on December 18th ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Format:

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[XB1] 1200K      [XB1] 1.2 million
[XB1] 1200K      [XB1] 1200 thousand
[XB1] 1,200,000  [XB1] 1.200.000
[XB1] 1200000    [XB1] - 1200000


Potential hardware impacting events in November:
Black Friday week AND full Cyber Monday week (first time both in November retail periodin a decade)
PS4 - $199 (Nov 18-) - ~2 weeks (until stock ran out)

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

October's Resuts
PS4: ~342K
NSW: ~255K
XB1: ~212K

October 2017 NPD thread (first one at ResetERA)
November 2017 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive

Addendum: Notes on Black Friday sales from Industry
* Nintendo: Switch sold more BF->CM than any Nintendo system in history, highest week in U.S. for Switch (+115% increase over 2017), LTD Switch > 8.2m (major issues with number, as this being end of November LTD disagrees with BF week being +115% alone; probably much higher Nov than this LTD would indicate)
 
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Quinton

Specialist at TheGamer / Reviewer at RPG Site
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
17,446
Midgar, With Love
This one's gonna be crazy. Subscribing to this thread in a real hurry. Here's hoping for healthy industry results and great performances from all three.

I'll post some predictions later.
 
OP
OP

donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
620
So I see a lot of Switch predictions significantly greater than 800K, which would ~ match the 8.2 LTD noted by Nintendo. Guessing there was a thread discussing the Nintendo press release. Can someone summarize what the reasoning for thinking it's much higher than the press release would indicate or just share a link to the thread?

Thanks!

Edit:
Found the thread and the reasoning. Yeah, seemed like only 800K would not warrant those huge increases over BF and weekly increases prior. Modified note in OP to include some discussion on the LTD number, then. (^_^)
 
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Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
So I see a lot of Switch predictions significantly greater than 800K, which would ~ match the 8.2 LTD noted by Nintendo. Guessing there was a thread discussing the Nintendo press release. Can someone summarize what the reasoning for thinking it's much higher than the press release would indicate or just share a link to the thread?

Thanks!
We worked out together with Benji's insider info that the 800k is actually physically impossible, and that the 800k number is more likely to be just BF sales added to the October total.

Edit: Link
 
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ZhugeEX

Senior Analyst at Niko Partners
Verified
Oct 24, 2017
3,099
November 18 has a tough comp vs November 17.
Combined hardware unit sales in November 17 were highest since November 11.
(my comp ignores plug & play hardware).
 

z0m3le

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,418
[XB1] 1070K
[PS4] 1510K
[NSW] 1520K

Switch was ahead of PS4 until black friday, it was really close after the holiday, so I assume PS4 was ahead then, but there was another week of sales, right before Smash, after commercials started for it and after the bundle launched, so I am going with NSW ahead of PS4 in the final week, making up the difference.

November 2017 saw PS4's peak month in America, I can't see it being higher this year when it's expected to be down yoy.
 

Toni

Banned
Nov 13, 2017
1,983
Orlando, Florida
[XB1] 1070K
[PS4] 1510K
[NSW] 1520K

Switch was ahead of PS4 until black friday, it was really close after the holiday, so I assume PS4 was ahead then, but there was another week of sales, right before Smash, after commercials started for it and after the bundle launched, so I am going with NSW ahead of PS4 in the final week, making up the difference.

November 2017 saw PS4's peak month in America, I can't see it being higher this year when it's expected to be down yoy.

I believe benji said eventhough PS4 might be down YoY, it should still take November somewhat comfortably. I don't think it's going to be that close between PS4 and switch.
 
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Peek-a-boo!

Member
Oct 30, 2017
4,257
Woodbridge
I'm surprisingly disappointed to realise the PlayStation 4 didn't have anywhere near enough stock to be within reaching distance of two million units, let alone surpassing it...

One console is definitely up YoY (Switch), one console is probably flat or slightly down (PlayStation 4) and the other is surely down YoY (Xbox One).

[PS4] 1560K
[NSW] 1290K
[XB1] 990K

Going for

PS4] 1600K
[NSW] 1450K
[XB1] 1300K

You're forgetting the leftmost square bracket in front of PS4!
 

z0m3le

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,418
I believe benji said eventhough PS4 might be down YoY, it should still take November somewhat comfortably. I don't think it's going to be that close between PS4 and switch.
Here is what he actually said:
Tough to say tbh. Declaring the top selling hardware this time of year is difficult as different places see different results.

Switch outsold the PS4 the entire month outside of BF week. Ir appears PS4 edged it still on BF week itself though even with Switchs huge result

I THINK PS4 still takes the month, but by a pretty narrow margin
Now that was still without the final week of the month, and PS4 being down YoY for November (also from benji's posts in that thread) and he himself estimating 1.5M for Switch as reasonable, I'll go with both PS4 and Switch hitting that result and Switch just edging it out. People putting a 200k+ gulf in their estimates are where I question what their methodology is. From the reports we got, not having these 2 platforms neck and neck is odd to me.
 
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Deleted member 2791

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
19,054
Here is what he actually said:

Now that was still without the final week of the month, and PS4 being down YoY for November (also from benji's posts in that thread) and he himself estimating 1.5M for Switch as reasonable, I'll go with both PS4 and Switch hitting that result and Switch just edging it out. People putting a 200k+ gulf in their estimates are where I question what their methodology is. From the reports we got, not having these 2 platforms neck and neck is odd to me.

Compared to last year, 200k is a pretty narrow margin. Benji doesn't have access to precise data over the entire country and a 200k difference would fit with what he said.