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November 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 11th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Well, then I think XBO will outsell PS4 like happened in december of last year.
Honestly, the biggest surprise to me is the performance of Xbox of November with only -3% drop compared to previous November when Xbox X was released.
Switch, had amazing increase of 75% yoy, but I was expecting it to be more around 1450k+ atleast.
PS4, definitely was under shipped by Sony at 199$, probably in favor of long term profit that they can make by selling it at 299$.
Switch, had amazing increase of 75% yoy, but I was expecting it to be more around 1450k+ atleast.
PS4, definitely was under shipped by Sony at 199$, probably in favor of long term profit that they can make by selling it at 299$.
There's usually a factor of 2x for Nintendo HW (and especially Switch) going from November to December, but this year November was more inflated due to Cyber Monday not being tracked in December and the MK8DX bundle. So 1.5 -> 2.5 is a good estimate I'd say.
Switch should end up as the best selling platform for the year if it performs as expected, since Sony has no big deals for this month (unless...surprise).
Yep. Switch gonna be the best selling console this year. Sony f up with low stock and bad december deals
I'm surprised that Xbox was able to move so many units with a worse deal on BF this year. Very good performance!
Switch up significantly was to be expected despite Nintendo official PR. Are the units close enough that Switch will be number 1 in revenue? I expected it would be close enough that it may be a PS4 unit and Switch revenue and it looks like it's definitely possible.
PS4 continues to exceed expectations this year despite shortages of the Spidey bundle. Clearly there is still plenty of demand for PS4, especially at $199.
It's becoming a bit cliche, but it really was a great month for everyone. Now, can't wait to see software :)
Switch up significantly was to be expected despite Nintendo official PR. Are the units close enough that Switch will be number 1 in revenue? I expected it would be close enough that it may be a PS4 unit and Switch revenue and it looks like it's definitely possible.
PS4 continues to exceed expectations this year despite shortages of the Spidey bundle. Clearly there is still plenty of demand for PS4, especially at $199.
It's becoming a bit cliche, but it really was a great month for everyone. Now, can't wait to see software :)
Wow, that'd be fantastic! Nintendo's handhelds probably have pulled similar or better numbers, but their price point was usually lower than even the most basic Switch sku (with no games).
December is normally close to 2x November if I remember correctly so it should easily surpass 2 million.
Edit: to be clear, I wouldn't expect it to be double, but it should definitely be up in Dec enough to clear 2 million fairly easily IMO.
There were shortages yea. But the reason it's disappointing result is that they probably could have hit the same number if not higher if they did a less enticing deal but with more stock.
I mean... look at the XB1 result. It's a 100k within the PS4. I don't really get why you'd do such a great bundle, and limit stock so incredibly so.
huuum... I think 2-2.5 million will be the range. This time, November was huge for Nintendo.
They won't have the usual grow. Still, it may sell 2.5m but i think is a best case scenario.
I'll go with 2.3 million
Sony did not fuck up.
They got the sales they want and now riding the profit train .
You have to ask questions like how much money do you lose overall? What are the spending habits of the people buying deals like this?
Yeah, you could have sold more but at what cost? I'd assume Sony is only comfortable with losing what they did with this set amount of PS4 shipped for this deal.
that was a good month for my predictions!
I may back in the Top 5 yearly chart :D
Ya gotta have Faith, Arthur. Smash will lead us to +3 Million units.
YOU GOTTA HAVE FAITH, ARTHUR.
Probably they don't want to devalued PS4 making more easy to buy one at $199, because would become less appealing at the regular price.
That XB1 result is incredible! They had the Xbox One X launch last November. To only be down 3% is truly fantastic.
If this is true, Switch will end up as the best selling platform this year in the US.
If this is true, Switch will end up as the best selling platform this year in the US.
Pretty sure the number of stock they provided was intentionally done by them, with respect to how many they wanted to sell at low cost.
Why are people disappointed with PS4? Sony could have sold significantly more if they wanted. There was plenty of demand at $199 but Sony was only interested in selling a specific amount at that price.
Considering their overall sales for this year have been up significantly over their projections, I don't think anyone should be disappointed.
Considering their overall sales for this year have been up significantly over their projections, I don't think anyone should be disappointed.
Not so much limiting their stock as limiting their bundles sold at massively below cost. And it makes sense. The idea is to bring more people into the ecosystem and get them buying software to make up that profit, but there's a threshold in which selling too many consoles at such a reduced rate actually has a negative effect on that. Sony's been in the game long enough to have a ton of data informing them of where that sweet spot is for losing money on hardware vs gaining it on software.
Frankly I think that Spiderman bundle was too good. They would have sold the same amount with just PS4 at $200.
I won't be extraordinarily surprised now, after magicpork leaked that -3%.
Loosing market share to MS and Nintendo is a f in my book. Sony have lots of money so why don't use them to have profits in the long run? Ps4 user this gen is more likely to buy a ps5 next gen. Locking people into the ecosystem should be a priority
Oh yeah, I kinda forget the Wii was like a damn rocket for a couple of years there. Still the Wii was cheaper than the Switch, so I'd be more impressed with 2.5M in this December!
This should also be another year with PS4 over 5 million .
That seem to be the going number for them lol.
That seem to be the going number for them lol.
Ya gotta have Faith, Arthur. Smash will lead us to +3 Million units.
YOU GOTTA HAVE FAITH, ARTHUR.
DON'T DO THIS TO ME! You know i like crazy high predictions!
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH
And we can't assume all the people buying this deal will make it up in software either.
The PS4 has been on the market for a while now but these people are only just now buying it. As such, I think it is more likely these buyers will be inclined to play Spidey and, for the most part, be done with the PS4. I don't think we should assume all of them will buy Plus, buy a bunch of 1st party games, etc.... I'm sure that will be the case for a certain percentage of them but it may not be a big percentage.
So, it is just finding balance within all the cross between units sold and getting that money back through other means with this particular buyers.
Because locking people into your ecosystem that buying a system cheap is not a given .
Some also most likely not high spending consumers and you don't want to devalued your product to much .
People act like people buying PS+ is a sure bet when over half the user base don't have it.
They are already the market leader by a huge margin of 2:1 ww over xbox.
They are a business company and profit is mostly what drives them the most, not losing 100$ profit per console when they in good position.
You could say the same thing for why didn't Switch didn't drop it's price by 100$ and gain more market share , things just doesn't work like that.
Yep, that's the point I'm driving at. The bundle they put out for the stock they had is weird, when a $199 bundle would have sold just as well.
Heh, I remember calming down people in the PS4 Black Friday deal announcement thread who were throwing out terms like "destroying" and "dominating" the competition. It was always coming down to stock and considering Sony would like to make some profit they were never going to ship a crazy amount* of the bundle.
*2+ million units
*2+ million units
Why are people surprised about Xbox selling the way it has? Xbox before Switch was notorious for getting outsold by Sony all year only to beat Sony in the holidays prompting I believe Greenburg to use that silly "regular season and playoffs" analogy. A rising tide raises all ships. The holidays are just like that. At this point, Sony doesn't care about trying to outsell anyone. They just want the profits and I'm shocked they were able to pass the PS3's LTD in only 5 years and are now knocking on the door of PSX's LTD.
Weeeell, they probably could have sold the very same amount of consoles without including Spidey (or selling the bundle at a higher price). OR they really just underestimated demand and did not ship enough of those bundles.
From that point of view PlayStation as a console did extremely well, but Sony could have done a better job.
Sony probably locked in on having a better bundle than they did last year... and since 199$ for just the Slim is sooooo 2017.. hehe
Speaking of, which is the best selling Sonh console in the US so far? PS2? And how far is PS4 from those numbers?