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November 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 11th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Metroid Prime gets treated like some red head child around here. All the other Nintendo series apparently can grow and expand their series sales, but no no no when it comes to Metroid we have to keep downplaying the success of the switch, downplay there's nothing like Metroid Prime on the Switch, downplay the current industry. We can't factor none of that into Metroid Prime 4 being successful.
Maybe some of us don't think it'll sell 2-3 million? Maybe some of us think it'll do what every other Nintendo series is doing on the Nintendo Switch and sell the best for its series and then some (for most of Nintendo's series so far)?
To be fair we really know almost nothing about it, so it is kind of hard to discuss it beyond talking about the potential of the IP.
But yeah people tend to forget Prime 1 was a thing before FPS games really took off. So the ceiling for those games back then may be wildly different from what's possible in today's gaming landscape.
Sure, what are some of the latest sales of the franchise? It was always a small franchise compared to Nintendo's other IPs which really push systems.
I'm going to be bold here and say Prime 4 will sell more than that.
Switch software is setting franchise records. Especially core oriented ones. Metroid is one of Nintendo's most core oriented series.
It WILL surpass Prime 1's 2.74 million
The last time it was relevant the genre it played in was nearly irrelevant, so you can't really compare that.
To be fair, I think we should be cautious about predicting growth for any franchise whose game we haven't seen yet.
Once we saw Zelda, Mario, and Smash, it seemed pretty clear that all of those were gonna show some unprecedented levels of growth for their franchises. The question was by how much, and (now) it's whether Nintendo can replicate that success with sequels. And it's also pretty obvious at this point that any Nintendo franchise is gonna do much better on Switch than it did on 3DS or Wii U.
We don't really have any basis for predicting how Prime 4 will do yet. It's one of the few franchises that did worse on Wii than on GameCube. It could turn out to be a step in the wrong direction, even while everything else sells gangbusters.
The point is the effect of these small exclusives on hardware sales are mostly not notable and will be hard to point out like the games that sell +10 million.
Nah, the gifs were just for effect. I never implied those three games were all there was to 2019 for Nintendo.
Benji got what I was saying pretty effortlessly. Be more like Benji and less like you.
If it's presented well.
If it's firsf impression is bad and continues to not impress, it won't do that.
It's just really difficult to discuss potential when we know nothing.
Uhh, like, first of all, we have never seen Metroid Prime 4 and have no idea how good it will be or when it will release.
I would think Nintendo's expectations are probably at 5m or so for Prime 4 if they have invested a serious amount of resources into it. Less if the game is some lower budget thing.
I would think Nintendo's expectations are probably at 5m or so for Prime 4 if they have invested a serious amount of resources into it. Less if the game is some lower budget thing.
The thing is, Nintendo has like 5 times more relevant exclusives in 2019 than 2018 which cover a wide area of genres that can attract multiple different people. That is an advantage compared to 2018. Oh, and don't forget that sweet sweet movie industrie push with Marvel Avengers and Detective Pikachu.
The Wii was the last platform with a full Metroid title. You saw what happened with the Wii. Correlation = perfect causation.
I completely agree that we need to see it before judging but I would also point out that it selling less on the Wii than the Gamecube isn't exactly a bad sign for MP4 on Switch. The Wii audience was far more likely to buy something like NSMB and Mario Kart than Metroid Prime or the Conduit or something like that. The Switch audience seems to be more "core" oriented so more people would likely be interested in a game like Metroid Prime 4 on Switch than on Wii even if the install base will be lower when all is said and done (and I'm not sure if that will be the case).
Team Ninja's Avengers game will surely be overshadowed by Crystal Dynamics' Avengers game that will surely be shown next year.
lol
(CD's game will almost surely be more impressive than the Team Ninja game, just joking about how far away the Crystal Dynamics game is).
1 million in one week for a console is such an extremely rare occurrence.
Afaik that never ever happend outside the 2 biggest sales weeks of the year (BF and the last weekend before Christmas)
Correct Switch sold 1.5 million in December 2017. At least 2 million would be up 35% YoY. 2.5 million would be up 67% YoY.
That is massive growth.
Yeah and what i described is a microeconomic trend Nintendo is also part of.
What I said was not unique to Nintendo back in the days. It was equally true for Playstation, Xbox or other platforms.
This recent shift also affects Nintendo, even tho they still skew more towards December for various reasons, of which you mentioned some.
If Switch sells above 2.5 million units in December I gladly cut off my pinky.
Yes, we'll see.
Or maybe some retail insider should tell if Switch is moving double the numbers of November this year.
Nah, it's not like the comparison of Wii vs. GameCube was "casuals up, core down." Twilight Princess and Smash did really solid numbers on Wii that GameCube would never have been able to dream of.
The story for Wii was that all potential Nintendo audiences (demographics-wise) grew: non-gamer converts, lapsed gamers, and core gamers. That doesn't necessarily mean a lift for every franchise, because games will still sell based on how they're received by the market. And I think it's crystal clear that Prime 3 wasn't that warmly received in any sense of the word compared to Prime 1.
Well, the most grown number was the dust collector gamers.
Umm... what ever happened to good old avatar bets?
Anyway I think 2.5M is more or less the ceiling here but over 2M is very possible. I still don't think we've heard much from retail insiders besides general "it's doing great" so yeah we're working blind here but I'm still expecting a fairly good bump from November as usual.
The Xbox deals were not as bad as I initially thought. They had BFV and NBA 2K19 bundles for 229 in addition to 199 Minecraft. 199 MC was definitely disappointing, but $150 is probably just a bridge too far. The other bundles are actually pretty great. To get a triple A game and a 1TB console for 229 is pretty great in the scheme of things. We're really in that late gen phase of fantastic value.
Marquee titles have little to no effect except for Nintendo. See, Sony's November 2018.
Yeah, us message board goers are only interested in market share games. I like to ask this: If you could have PS4 be 149 this holiday OR get a $10,000 check (to you, random forum dweller, personally) and PS4 stays 199, what would you choose? Most everybody would choose 199. The point is clear, when it affects US monetarily, we would have different views.
Well, that's Sony/MS/Nintendo. Price reductions on hardware come directly out of their pockets.
I'm just buying some Nintendo stock right now to hedge my bet. I'm fine.
It saw a 75% growth YoY in November, so a 35% growth in December would not be that crazy I think. But I agree that 2.5 million is a bit optimistic. I think 2.0 - 2.2 million.
~ 4526K (2018) VS ~ 4372K (2017) or +3.5% YoY for the Jan-Nov period
So, with an expected weak December, PS4 will be flat or a bit down by the end of the year.
For an overall commentary, about as expected. The Era anecdotes looked like PS4 was winning 10-1, I wasn't buying though cus I know my history, that happens every year. You just have to pay attention to Benji's comments to usually get a good feel.
Disappointing a bit that Xbox was down YoY for me.
And the Xbox One X anecdotally I bet did extremely well. It was available for 399 generally, which is a big reduction.
Disappointing a bit that Xbox was down YoY for me.
And the Xbox One X anecdotally I bet did extremely well. It was available for 399 generally, which is a big reduction.
The homophobia jumped out.
===
The december numbers will be interesting.
I... what?
I would like clarification on why you think what I said is homophobic in any way shape or form.
Ehm, Nintendo stock actually doesn't represent at all how well Nintendo is doing, because some analysts like to talk it down. Even if somehow Nintendo reaches their goal, the stock will drop because the analysts find a way to spin it into a negative way.
I've been keeping track of 360 vs One this whole generation, gen over gen. Basically, Xbox One was still ahead by 45k units going into November, where I expected 360 to finally come out ahead.
I have 360 for 1374k in Nov 2010, vs Xbox O's 1340k this Nov, difference of 34k, One somehow maintains it's lead for another month, by a piddly 11k LOL.
One has no chance though, 360 had a ridiculous 2011/year 6, and in Dec 2010 (next months comp) was over 1.8m. Next month, December of year 5 2010/2018, finally 360 will overtake One gen over gen.
Although given the rough nature of NPD estimates the margin of error is pretty high, so exact numbers are a fruitless endeavour.
I have 360 for 1374k in Nov 2010, vs Xbox O's 1340k this Nov, difference of 34k, One somehow maintains it's lead for another month, by a piddly 11k LOL.
One has no chance though, 360 had a ridiculous 2011/year 6, and in Dec 2010 (next months comp) was over 1.8m. Next month, December of year 5 2010/2018, finally 360 will overtake One gen over gen.
Although given the rough nature of NPD estimates the margin of error is pretty high, so exact numbers are a fruitless endeavour.
instituting a new rule that you have to hyperlink a Benji post when you say "but Benji said"
just kidding, but still
Yeah, but it had that crazy system seller called Xenoblade Chronicles 2 come out in December. :p
Also, my previous Metroid comment was half-serious. I fully expect some multiplayer component. They pushed it hard in their last game, had it in their DS Metroid games, and had a great multiplayer mode in Nintendoland. It feels like something they want to get right.
Fire Emblem is technically a bigger franchise than Metroid right now soooooooooooo
Yeah so now you see you are wrong. So my original post stands.
First, Let it be known that I'm assuming Prime 4 is going to be a similar game to the first three, just a bit more modernized.
Anyways, I'm just saying I think today's environment is a great one for Prime to succeed in, moreso than the Gamecube and Wii were.
I'm not going to even limit it to Nintendo. Single player exclusive games in general are doing very, very well now. Sony's got new IPs that are selling way over 2 million. Both Sony and Nintendo are reviving old IPs to record sales (Zelda, God of War, Fire Emblem). I don't know why people think Metroid in particular would just.... stagnate. On the most successful console for core games Nintendo has released in ages.
Not to mention, the Metroid fan base has been very vocal about the series' absence. I'm sure it's drawn a ton of eyes towards it. Hell, that's how I got into the series in 2014. It made a Prime 4 logo reveal one of the most hyped things at E3.
I mean feel free to bring this up if it underperforms, but I think Nintendo would REALLY have to fuck up for it to not set a record for the series honestly.
I don't know....I don't know you personally but I do know that everyone who was going to buy Fire Emblem already has a Switch therefore you aren't real
/s obviously
It appears the discussion has gotten caught up in the numbers and December predictions and forgotten..........................
Congrats to uptownsoul. As always, thanks to Donny2112 for his work and all the sales gurus for their appreciated insightful contributions.
It's my most anticipated game.
Plus, I'll buy a special Edition Switch if they make one.
Shooters? Metroid Prime came out after Halo and Nintendo fans were already conditioned for shooters coming off the Goldeneye/Perfect Dark console.
Metroidvanias? They're no more relevant now.
