-
Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
-
We have made minor adjustments to how the search bar works on ResetEra. You can read about the changes here.
November 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 11th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Honestly, it probably means a nice amount of consoles in Japan. Not sure if the US has a similar set of dedicated fans who would buy the system for the game. Maybe MatPiscatella knows if Fire Emblem has such qualities in the US as well?
Yeah, the game isn't going to sell itself on the genre.
It's going to have to by franchise pedigree, good advertising and word of mouth. Which I think it will.
I also wonder, how many system sales could one Smash Bros Ultimate DLC character at max do if he is from a franchise that can draw in masses?
My friend is buying a Switch whenever Fire Emblem comes out. The only two games he would immediately buy one for are Fire Emblem and Advanced Wars (RIP). I hope that Fire Emblem isn't a 3 versions cash grab like Fates was.
I dunno, God of War is certainly Metroidvania inspired, and just won GoY off the back of that design. Certainly from an indie standpoint the genre has flourished over the last few years.
That's not to say Metroid will blow up like God of War, but there's definitely a market to play that type of game if done right.
Wargroove could interest him! I'm looking forward to that game.
Metroid doesn't have any chance to sell 10M however I do believe Metroid Prime 4 is poised to be the best selling Metroid game ever if the game delivers (>3M).
Franchises can experience huge growth. What was the best selling MH in the West before MHW? They're are other recent examples of games experiencing huge growth like GoW, smash, Zelda he'll even CoD had a huge jump.
The main reason I mention MHW is that prime 4 is in a similar position where it is a game that can benefit heavily from improved HW and is essentially skipping a whole generation. I don't see it suddenly joining Nintendo's biggest franchises but I can see it becoming a far bigger success than any previous prime game and yes selling some HW.
The main reason I mention MHW is that prime 4 is in a similar position where it is a game that can benefit heavily from improved HW and is essentially skipping a whole generation. I don't see it suddenly joining Nintendo's biggest franchises but I can see it becoming a far bigger success than any previous prime game and yes selling some HW.
You misunderstand. I don't think the genre is a hindrance. I just don't think it's a selling point. No one bought GoW because it has Metroidvania elements.
Haha, I've re-read many GOW reviews after it won- your description is news to me.
It's been far too long. I was wondering when I'd see this nonsense start cropping up again
Far too long? Where have you been the past month, people have been saying this very often about Smash.
Then earlier this year it was said about Spider-Man and God of War.
Metroid will do as well as Nintendo wants it to. If they give it the budget, scope and time needed for it live upto the series critical pedigree along with a good release window and strong advertising push there is no reason it can't do 5 million plus considering the genre its in
I mean how many major Nintendo first party titles will actually sell under 5 million once all is said and done?
Pokemon Lets Go - Way Over
Smash Ultimate - Way Over
Zelda - Way Over
Mario Kart - Way Over
Mario Odyssey - Way Over
Mario Party - Way Over (not as of now but soon enough)
Splatoon 2 - Way Over
1-2 Switch / Mario Tennis / Kirby / Tropical Freeze - Possible depending on legginess. Easier to say after next financial report
Xenoblade / Arms - Nope
I'd argue that game design is in fact a huge reason why the game was so acclaimed and sold so well.
Not that that means anything in particular for Metroid Prime 4.
For some reason you're counterpointing me with quality of game design when this line of conversation was about relevance of genre.
No one disputes people bought it because it was a well made game. My point is that no one bought God of War because they heard it had Metroidvania elements.
You forgot to mention one other Nintendo franchise that has potential to significantly grow on the Switch, Fire Emblem. Fates ended up with ~2.85 million units sold. Unless Threee Houses turns out to be a disaster, I think it can easily break 3 million+ units. 5 million might be a stretch though.
And you would have a relevant point if you could point to anyone who ran out and bought it because they heard "has metroidvania elements" instead of "it's a really well made game". Because the conversation you've entered is about whether or not Metroidvania as a genre is a relevant selling point, not whether or not people enjoy that gameplay style.
I don't think the Metroid series is well suited to be a generic competitive FPS.
Frankly multiplayer was never a big component of the series on the contrary Metroid is a single player experience which main appeal is the exploration of a sprawling alien world with the help of newly acquired power ups/abilities.
I believe that this formula can be successful but it need a director with a good vision and that have the balls to add to the established Metroid Prime template new exciting spins (even if they might subvert some established rules) that make people hyped to play the game on top of just pretty graphics.
Simply remaking Metroid Prime with pretty graphics would be a mistake.
Essentially Metroid Prime 4 would need to be changed in a similar way as Breath of the Wild where it subvert some rules thought sacred but remaining also faithful to the series core identity (which for Metroid is the alien world and the interaction with it).
Yeh the way Switch titles are selling its more plausible for a major first party title to sell over 5 million than under (if they are handled correctly and of the assumed quality one would expect from Nintendo first party stuff)
Whether or not they know to call it by that name, the "Metroidvania elements" in God of War are a selling point. Things like gameplay loop and progression systems are a huge part of the appeal of the game. People go out and buy the game because they heard someone describing to them what are essentially design elements shared with Metroidvanias. I don't think this necessarily means anything for the sales potential of Prime 4. I was just pointing out that those specific design elements of God of War are relevant to its success.
And please spare me with this patronizing "conversation you've entered" stuff.
Of the games released or announced so far for Switch in an established Nintendo series/characters I'd say the game that will ship less than 5M in the end will be:
Kirby Star Allies, DKCTF, Xenoblade 2, Fire Emblem Three Houses, Captain Toad, Mario Tennis Aces , Yoshi's Crafted World, Pokken, Bayonetta 3 (and Fire Emblem Warriors/Hyrule Warriors if you want to include them).
Without knowing anything about Metroid Prime 4 I would say there is a good chance that it will sell less than 5M.
I think there is a chance to buck the trend though.
Of the yet to be released games NSMBUDX, Animal Crossing, Luigi's Mansion 3 have a very good chance to sell more than 5M (assured for the former 2).
Is what matters because the conversation is about GENRE being a selling point for a game not GAMEPLAY and the relevance of Metroidvania as a GENRE.
That member got permabanned. I just wish he was there to reply to his foolish comments on how Switch would only sell 950k-1050k in anovember because of Nintendos incompetent PR 😂
Do you have any info on how all three consoles are performing so far this month relative to last December?
Major first party releases was my qualifier. So I wouldn't include Captain Toad/Pokken/Warriors titles/Bayonetta which are ports/filler and not really a fair comparison
I think Kirby/Mario Tennis/Fire Emblem could all possibly leg their way to 5 million
I don't think either of the three will have final sales above 5M.
However I do expect Kirby Star Allies to end up being the second best selling Kirby game ever while I expect Mario Tennis Aces to become the best selling game in the franchise.
DK TF, Tennis, Kirby, Xenoblade, Arms, Pokken, Fire Emblem, Metroid, Yoshi, Pikmin, etc
There are loads.
The franchises you listed as way over, are traditionally Nintendo's biggest franchises( Pokemon, Mario, Zelda, Smash and now Splatoon)
Yeh I'm not super confident but its not crazy to think they might get there - at the end of Sep they were at 2.1 / 2.16 million. If, at the next report they are around 3 million that would be achieved in under one year.
So 5 million lifetime (with promotions / discounts etc) is not that crazy
Mario Tennis and Kirby are looking to do near 3 million within 12 months so they'll get close to 5 million lifetime if not over.
Fire Emblem is as likely to do 5 million as not and the rest of your list are all ports or not even out on the system yet. The only "major" titles i.e an original game given a good marketing push but not looking to get near 5 million are ARMS / 1-2 switch and LABO - all brand new IP in niche / out there genres or completely experimental titles / released at launch to a fraction of the current user base
Switch software is universally selling like crazy, if Prime 4 is as good as we would all hope and wish 5 million is a good target
Doubt it. It would exceptional legs and these franchises have never been close to 5 million.
Lmao no.
PS1 December 1997 - 2.18 million
PS1 December 1998 - 2.60 million
PS1 December 1999 - 1.93 million
whoever do that should not be on there, there is a reason if most of those people are in another forum. And even there, people laught at those people who still doubt about you, so really Benji, don't worry about them.
OP
OP
Yep. Really hope they put out a special edition console. (^_^)
FEWarriors had cross-promotion (don't recall if Valentia did, though), so it's a good bet.
PS4 won't beat 2015 sales. I think it will be super flat to 2017 numbers
XB1 will be flat too or slighly above last year, it won't reach 2016 numbers.
Switch will easy be the best selling console this year
December 1996 - 765K
December 1997 - 1.64 million
December 1998 - 1.54 million
December 1999 - 1.21 million
December 2000 - 655K
It's crazy how much Sony and Nintendo first party games have exploded this gen. Niche games are even doing well now. Last gen really stifled creativity and diversity imo.
Thanks
The PS1 smoked it but the N64 put up a fight
In 1997 Nintendo 64 was very competitive against PS1, winning 6 months out of 12. PS1 ended up selling more because of a bigger holiday.
5.04 million VS 4.36 million
The PS1 lead started to be clear in 1998, when it outsold N64 every months, and by a huge margin some times (like >x2), but at least N64 managed to have some close months.
7.07 million VS 4.12 million
In 1999 and 2000 PS1 and N64 were closer tho, 2000 in particular. The reason PS1 sold a lot more than N64 was because of it's long legs, but before GC released, N64 was able to put up a fight.
Ok maybe not lets wait and see - Kirby has done 5 million before though
Last edited:
Not even close. Fates with multiple SKUs counted reached 3 million. JRPGs are not some explosive genre either. Your 5 million estimate is not remotely based in reality but wishful projection.
The Kirby GB game sold around 1.7 million in Japan alone, probably shipped closer to 2 million. Kirby on SW is not replicating that and like I said, exceptional legs would be needed.
Yes, I do pay attention to sales stats.