Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of October and November. Both months are 4 weeks long, but November is the 2nd biggest month of the year in terms of total sales and the biggest month when it comes to weekly average thanks to Black Friday week. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for November to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.
Code:
2012
Xbox 360 October: 270K / 4 = 67,500
Xbox 360 November: 1.259M / 4 = 314,750
Weekly average +366%
PS3 October: 170K / 4 = 42,500
PS3 November: 762K / 4 = 190,500
Weekly average +348%
3DS October: 245K / 4 = 61,250
3DS November: 540K / 4 = 135,000
Weekly average +120%
Notable Events in November
Xbox 360
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$149 4GB / $199 250GB Bundles / $199 4GB Kinect Bundle]
Call of Duty: Black Ops II [2 weeks] [4.53M]
Halo 4 [3 weeks] [3.2M]
Assassin's Creed III [4 weeks]
PS3
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$199 250GB Bundle]
Call of Duty: Black Ops II [2 weeks] [2.87m]
Assassin's Creed III [4 weeks]
3DS
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals
Code:
2013
Xbox 360 October: 166K / 4 = 41,500
Xbox 360 November: 647K / 4 = 161,750
Weekly average +290%
PS3 October: 119K / 4 = 29,750
PS3 November: 407K / 4 = 101,750
Weekly average +242%
3DS October: 452K / 4 = 113,000
3DS November: 741K / 4 = 185,250
Weekly average +64%
Notable Events in November
Xbox 360
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$99 4GB / $189 250GB Bundles / $189 4GB Kinect Bundle]
Call of Duty: Ghosts [4 weeks] [>3.3M]
PS3
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$149 12GB Bundle / $199 250GB Bundles]
Call of Duty: Ghosts [4 weeks] [>1.8M]
3DS
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals
The Legend of Zelda: A Link between Worlds Special Themed Gold + Black XL bundle $219 [2 weeks] [125K]
The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds [2 weeks] [280K]
Code:
2014
Xbox One October: 168K / 4 = 42,000
Xbox One November: 1.231M / 4 = 307,750
Weekly average +632%
PS4 October: 297K / 4 = 74,250
PS4 November: 831K / 4 = 207,750
Weekly average +180%
3DS October: 138K / 4 = 34,500
3DS November: 515K / 4 = 128,750
Weekly average +273%
Xbox 360 October: 63K / 4 = 15,750
Xbox 360 November: 306K / 4 = 76,500
Weekly average +386%
PS3 October: 35K / 4 = 8,750
PS3 November: 89K / 4 = 22,250
Weekly average +154%
Notable Events In November
Xbox One
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$329 500GB Bundles]
Assassin's Creed: Unity 500GB bundle $349 [4 weeks] [<829K]
Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare 1TB bundle $499 [4 weeks] [200K]
Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare [4 weeks] [<1.195M]
Halo MCC [3 weeks] [>660K]
Grand Theft Auto V [2 weeks] [>517K]
Far Cry 4 [2 weeks] [214K]
Dragon Age Inquisition [2 weeks] [<192K]
PS4
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$399 500GB Bundle]
GTAV + The Last of Us 500GB Bundle $399 [1 week] [340K]
Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare [4 weeks] [<1.11M]
Grand Theft Auto V [2 weeks] [>583K]
Far Cry 4 [2 weeks] [281K]
Dragon Age Inquisition [2 weeks] [<258K]
3DS
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals
Crystal Blue 2DS $99 [2 weeks]
Crystal Red 2DS $99 [2 weeks]
Persona Q Special Themed Black XL bundle $199 [Gamestop] [1 week]
Pokémon Alpha Sapphire / Pokémon Omega Ruby [2 weeks] [1.5M]
Xbox 360
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$99 4GB / $179 4GB Kinect Bundle / $199 500GB Bundle]
Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare [4 weeks] [<1.238M]
Far Cry 4 [2 weeks] [~120K]
PS3
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$249 500GB Bundles]
Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare [4 weeks] [<725.7K]
Code:
2015
Xbox One October: 303K / 4 = 75,750
Xbox One November: 1.296M / 4 = 324,000
Weekly average +327%
PS4 October: 275K / 4 = 68,750
PS4 November: 1.539M / 4 = 384,750
Weekly average +460%
3DS October: 110K / 4 = 27,500
3DS November: 350K / 4 = 87,500
Weekly average +218%
Notable Events in November
Xbox One
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$299 500GB Bundles / $349 1TB Bundles]
Gears of War UE 500GB White bundle $349 [Walmart] [4 weeks]
Fallout 4 1TB Bundle $399 [3 weeks] [158K]
Tomb Raider 1TB Bundle $399 [Best Buy + MS Store] [4 weeks]
Xbox One Elite Bundle $499 [Gamestop + MS Store] [4 weeks]
Call of Duty Black Ops 3 [4 weeks] [1.948M]
Fallout 4 [3 weeks] [<1.116M]
Star Wars Battlefront [2 weeks] [843K]
Rise of Tomb Raider [3 weeks] [176K]
PS4
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$299 500GB Bundles]
Star Wars Battlefront 500GB Bundle $349 / Limited Bundle $399 [2 weeks] [375K]
Black Ops 3 1TB Bundle $429 [4 weeks] [251K]
Call of Duty Black Ops 3 [4 weeks] [1.902M]
Fallout 4 [3 weeks] [<1.264M]
Star Wars Battlefront [2 weeks] [883K]
3DS
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [3DS XL Bundle $129 / $179 New 3DS XL]
Code:
2016
Xbox One October: 303K / 4 = 82,250
Xbox One November: 1.007M / 4 = 251,750
Weekly average +206%
PS4 October: 235K / 4 = 58,750
PS4 November: 1.112M / 4 = 278,000
Weekly average +373%
3DS October: 123K / 4 = 30,750
3DS November: 556K / 4 = 139,000
Weekly average +352%
Notable Events in November
Xbox One
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$249 500GB Bundles / $299 1TB Bundles]
Free game with any Xbox One purchased [9 days: November 4 - November 12]
Xbox One S Battlefield 1 500GB Stormy Grey Limited bundle $299 [Wal-Mart/MS Store] [4 weeks]
Xbox One S Gears of War 4 500GB Deep Blue Limited bundle $299 [Gamestop/MS Store] [4 weeks]
Call of Duty Infinite Warfare [4 weeks]
PS4
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$249 500GB Bundles]
Call of Duty Infinite Warfare free with every PS4 [2 days: November 4 - November 5]
PS4 Pro 1TB $399 [3 weeks] [~260K]
Call of Duty Infinite Warfare [4 weeks]
3DS
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [2DS $79 / New 3DS Bundle $99]
Pokémon Sun / Pokémon Moon [2 weeks]
Code:
2017
Switch October: 290K / 4 = 72,500
Switch November: 775K / 4 = 193,750
Weekly average +167%
Xbox One October: 129K / 4 = 32,250
Xbox One November: 1.38M / 4 = 345,000
Weekly average +970%
PS4 October: 211K / 4 = 52,750
PS4 November: 1.69M / 4 = 422,500
Weekly average +701%
Notable Events in November
Switch
Increased supply for the holidays / Black Friday
Xbox One
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$189 500GB / $229 500GB Bundles / $299 1TB Bundles]
500GB Bundles $249 w/ free game Nov 13 - Nov 18 [1 week]
Xbox One X 1TB $499 [3 weeks] [~430K]
Call of Duty WWII [4 weeks]
Star Wars Battlefront II [2 weeks]
PS4
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$199 1TB]
Call of Duty WWII Camo 1TB Bundle $299 [4 weeks]
Star Wars Battlefront II 1TB Bundle $299 [2 weeks]
PS4 Pro Star Wars Battlefront II 1TB Limited Bundle $449 [2 weeks]
Call of Duty WWII [4 weeks]
Star Wars Battlefront II [2 weeks]
Code:
2018
Switch October: 255K / 4 = 63,750
Switch November: 1.36M / 4 = 340,000
Weekly average +433%
Xbox One October: 212K / 4 = 53,000
Xbox One November: 1.34M / 4 = 335,000
Weekly average +532%
PS4 October: 342K / 4 = 85,500
PS4 November: 1.48M / 4 = 370,000
Weekly average +333%
Notable Events in November
Switch
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals / [$299 Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Bundle]
*NEW* Cyber Monday
Let's Go, Pikachu! Pikachu & Eevee Bundle $399 / Let's Go, Eevee! Pikachu & Eevee Bundle $399 [3 weeks]
Pokémon: Let's Go, Pikachu! / Pokémon: Let's Go, Eevee! [3 weeks]
Xbox One
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$199 Minecraft 1TB Bundle / $229 1TB Bundles / $399 One X / $429 One X Bundles]
*NEW* Cyber Monday
Xbox One S Battlefield V 1TB Bundle $299 [3 weeks]
Xbox One X Battlefield V 1TB Bundle $499 [3 weeks]
Xbox One X Battlefield V 1TB Gold Rush Bundle $499 [Best Buy] [3 weeks]
Xbox One X Fallout 76 1TB Bundle $499 [3 weeks]
Fallout 76 [3 weeks]
Battlefield V [2 weeks]
PS4
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$199 1TB Bundle]
PS4 Slim Spider-Man 1TB Bundle $199 [2 weeks] * Black Friday Bundle
PS4 Slim Call of Duty Black Ops 4 1TB Bundle $299 [1 week]
*NEW* Cyber Monday
Fallout 76 [3 weeks]
Battlefield V [2 weeks]
Code:
2019 October Weekly Averages Using #1 Predictor
Switch: 312K / 4 = 78,000
PS4: 172K / 4 = 43,000
Xbox One: 111K / 4 = 27,750
Notable Events in November
Switch
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals / [$299 Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Bundle]
Special Pokemon Switch Lite $199 [4 weeks]
Pokemon Sword / Pokemon Shield [3 weeks]
Xbox One
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$149 All Digital / $199 One S Bundles / $349 One X Bundles]
Xbox One X Star Wars: Jedi Fallen Order Bundle $499 [3 weeks]
Xbox One S Star Wars: Jedi Fallen Order Bundle $299 [3 weeks]
Star Wars: Jedi Fallen Order [3 weeks]
PS4
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals [$199 Bundle / $299 Pro]
PS4 Slim The Last of Us Remastered + God of War + Horizon Zero Dawn Complete Edition Bundle $199 [1 week]
PS4 Pro Death Stranding Limited Bundle $399 [4 weeks]
Death Stranding [4 weeks]
Star Wars: Jedi Fallen Order [3 weeks]
Notes
November is enormous. It's expected that every console will jump by around +200% (3x) or more from October.*
*3DS is an exception.
Important note is that Cyber Monday week is once again a December week this year.
Below is a collection of known/extrapolated Black Friday week numbers from last generation.
Code:
Sales / % of November Sales
Xbox 360
2005: 326,000 (Launch)
2007: 310,000 / 40%
2008: 388,000 / 46%
2011: 960,000 / 57%
2012: 750,000 / 60%
PS3
2007: ~155,000 / ~33% (Xbox claims 360:PS3 was 2:1)
2008: ~129,000 / ~34% (Xbox claims 360:PS3 was 3:1)
2009: 440,000 / 62%
2012: 525,000 / 69%
Wii
2006: 476,000 (Launch)
2007: 350,000 / 36%
2008: 800,000 / 39%
2009: 550,000 / 44%
2010: 600,000 / 47%
2011: +500,000 / +58% (500K just on Black Friday, whole week unknown)
2012: 300,000 / 71%
3DS
2012: 250,000 / 46%
Unfortunately, no more numbers were given during the 8th gen other than the Xbox One having the 2nd best Black Friday in Xbox history in 2015 (+22% from BF 2014 / +750K). The DS has once sold ~1M units during Black Friday 2009 and the Gameboy Advance did around that (over a 10 day period) in 2002.
Switch in 2018 surpassed the Wii's best Thursday-Monday 5 day period which covers Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and that Switch was up +115% from that same period in 2017.
Xbox
Xbox loves the holiday season. Continually sells massive numbers in November, usually over 4 times as much as October, and recently that has been hitting well over 5x October.
Xbox One has had both the largest and lowest rises for the Xbox brand since 2012. A massive +970% in 2017, nearly 1000%, thanks to the launch of the Xbox One X with >430K sold, accompanied by Call of Duty WW2 and Star Wars Battlefront 2 (Comparing One S sales in November to October, that's a rise of +636% which is still bigger than the 2014 rise) and +206% in 2016, following a big October thanks to Gears of War 4 and Battlefield 1 and a disappointing November software lineup.
2019 finally sees a decrease in price for Xbox One for the first time since 2017's low of $189, down to $149 thanks to the Xbox One S All Digital Edition. The One X is also the lowest ever at $349.
PlayStation
PlayStation tends to do well throughout the year, so sometimes the boost in November isn't as big as Xbox. However, now that the PS4 is the market leader and picked up the marketing/bundle rights to titles such as Call of Duty, sales in November have improved over the 7th gen.
The PS4 had an average 2014 increase with +180% but then in 2015 they had the largest games bundled with the PS4 and a $50 price drop from October, leading to the largest rise since 2011 except for the Xbox One increase in 2014 with +460%. 2016 had the launch of the PS4 Pro which helped increase sales +373%. 2017 had the first $199 deal for the system and that along with COD WW2 and Battlefront 2 pushed units by +701%. 2018's increase is lower than usual thanks to high October sales from Red Dead Redemption 2 and Black Ops 4.
2019 has yet another $199 bundle, but this time it's more of a greatest hits bundle. The Pro is also at the lowest price yet at $299, but sales will be more concentrated around the $199 bundle.
Nintendo
The 3DS averages a rise of +205% with the smallest rise being +64% (2013) and the largest rise being +352% (2016).
Switch is set for a massive November thanks to the launch of the first proper Pokemon games of the generation, Sword and Shield. They are the fastest selling Switch games worldwide at +6M, faster than Smash Ultimate's +5M.
This holiday has the addition of Switch Lite, the $199 handheld only model. Switch should continue to see big growth over October.
Recap
November is the second biggest month of the year so everyone will see big boosts.
The biggest November ever recorded in the 7th gen was the Wii with 2,040,000 back in 2008. Second biggest? Xbox 360 with 1,688,000 in 2011.
The biggest November ever recorded in the 8th gen was the PS4 with 1,690,000 in 2017. Second biggest? PS4 again with 1,539,000 in 2015.
