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KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,355
So they are the platform holder that recently put pressure on NPD ?

Not surprised given the informations we got but sad nonetheless.

What new information we have? I mean we lost access to data like in 2010 and after that have relied on leaks that have had less and less data as years have gone by (basically hw anymore). Has there been some new extra pressure to stop the leaks and that is why they stopped completely this year?
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Something i will never understand in general, but for sony it makes no sense at all
I get your point. I believe it is opening the door for misinformation to spread but it didn't happen that much for now.

What new information we have? I mean we lost access to data like in 2010 and after that have relied on leaks that have had less and less data as years have gone by (basically hw anymore). Has there been some new extra pressure to stop the leaks and that is why they stopped completely this year?
They came after the results of last year and the first quarter. We had a post by the admin team here on ERA in April :

Hello everyone. We just wanted to comment officially on the removal of certain information: It's been brought to our attention that proprietary NPD data has been posted in these threads and that it's been proliferating widely in a way that is a growing problem for everyone involved.

We are asking y'all to help deescalate the situation and avoid having such data spread from here. We know we can't control what people do in private, but please avoid posting NPD numbers on this platform. We really don't want to ban anyone, but that will have to be the next step if things don't settle down. Thank you for your understanding.

Every post with hints about the HW numbers has since been edited and the information removed.
 

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,355
I get your point. I believe it is opening the door for misinformation to spread but it didn't happen that much for now.


They came after the results of last year and the first quarter. We had a post by the admin team here on ERA in April :



Every post with hints about the HW numbers has since been edited and the information removed.

Oh yeah. Somehow forgot that.
 

IronTed

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jun 6, 2019
1,435

Sonicfan059

Member
Mar 4, 2018
3,024

slavesnyder

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,127
SlaveSnyder Media Corp.
I get your point. I believe it is opening the door for misinformation to spread but it didn't happen that much for now.
They came after the results of last year and the first quarter. We had a post by the admin team here on ERA in April :
Every post with hints about the HW numbers has since been edited and the information removed.
oh, i remenber that, the only thin that puzzles me is bruno saying
I can only see leaks coming back if Sony's upcoming console dominates hardware sales.
either i misunderstood or i missed something, because i never thought that sony was the one that urged npd to do a herod (merry christmas). i remember that in ps3 years, sony tried to shut up leakers, but that makes sense as it was kind of damage control.
but for the recent murder mystery Who Killed the NPD Thread i see no motive, as any leak or discussion this gen would have been free PR for ps4. and, as little poirots and marples we should start by askin cui bono? under closer examination, the arrogant aristicrat sony seems to be out of suspicion and village nincompoop nintendo is, as usual, excused for mentally not being capable of doing the crime. that leads us directly to shady phil and his bunch of good-for-nothings. of course, he tried to distract everyone with the argument that "we don't give a fuck about console sales, officer, because game pass.", but can he be trusted or is this just a smoke screen to hide the blood on microsoft's hands? and where was greenberg that night?
 
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donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
620
ResetERA Aggregate Predictions - Nov-2019

1. NSW - 1574K (stddev: 129K)
2. PS4 - 1049K (stddev: 92K)
3. XB1 - 880K (stddev: 86K)
 
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donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
620
I think they've finished Top 10 before, but very rarely (especially lately, where the top rankers are usually really close compared to what I recall the top finishing at from a decade ago when there were more systems being predicted for). Don't know the highest final ranking, off-hand,, though.

Edit:
Thanks!
 
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Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
So I read that Nintendo will have a New Super Mario Bros bundle in the US and Canada for Boxing Day at $400 CAD.

Did anyone hear about that ?

 
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donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
620
Since not all the results are public, no numerical results are shown here. Also, the rankings are just a counter, so if two users are tied, it is not reflected in these results. To prevent backing out the numbers, only the monthly results for the top 3 predictors are shown. Annual results are still full results, though.

NPD Prediction Results - November 2019

Units

1. Corporate Clown
2. GamingCJ
3. oracion


Points
Code:
     November 2019                   Overall 2019 Top (9/11)
01.  Corporate Clown        ---.--   Lelouch0612            ---.--
02.  GamingCJ               ---.--   Kaveri                 ---.--
03.  oracion                ---.--   Myriotes               ---.--
04.                         ---.--   Corporate Clown        ---.--
05.                         ---.--   CosmicBolt             ---.--
06.                         ---.--   Ryng Manuel Tolu       ---.--
07.                         ---.--   gargles                ---.--
08.                         ---.--   Jeean                  ---.--
09.                         ---.--   James                  ---.--
10.                         ---.--   Andromeda              ---.--
11.                         ---.--   TurnoftheCentury       ---.--
12.                         ---.--   Welfare                ---.--
13.                         ---.--   Sterok                 ---.--
14.                         ---.--   Zedark                 ---.--
15.                         ---.--   pitseleh               ---.--
16.                         ---.--   jroc74                 ---.--
17.                         ---.--   donny2112              ---.--
18.                         ---.--   cakely                 ---.--
19.                         ---.--   KillerMan91            ---.--
20.                         ---.--   Bitch Pudding          ---.--
21.                         ---.--   score01                ---.--
22.                         ---.--   slavesnyder            ---.--
23.                         ---.--   Astrogamer             ---.--
24.                         ---.--   Hammer24               ---.--
25.                         ---.--   Moltres006             ---.--
26.                         ---.--   Darth Smurf X          ---.--
27.                         ---.--   El Manco               ---.--
28.                         ---.--   Elandyll               ---.--
29.                         ---.--   WestEgg                ---.--
30.                         ---.--   julian                 ---.--
31.                         ---.--   Pachter                ---.--
32.                         ---.--   ThatRandomCliff        ---.--
33.                         ---.--   kyo2004                ---.--
34.                         ---.--   Limabean01             ---.--
35.                         ---.--   Slarvax                ---.--
36.                         ---.--   plusaflag              ---.--
37.                         ---.--   IronTed                ---.--
38.                         ---.--   wilmbreak              ---.--
39.                         ---.--   DeuceGamer             ---.--
40.                         ---.--   SinCItyAssassin        ---.--
41.                         ---.--   Doctor Mario           ---.--
42.                         ---.--   useyourloaf            ---.--
43.                         ---.--   GamingCJ               ---.--
44.                         ---.--   Peek-a-boo!            ---.--
45.                         ---.--   MANUELF                ---.--
46.                         ---.--   Keith Stat             ---.--
47.                         ---.--   404LinkNotFound        ---.--
48.                         ---.--   brykuhn91              ---.--
49.                         ---.--   Mercenary09            ---.--
50.                         ---.--   Quintus                ---.--

Congratulations, Corporate Clown! :D

Edit:
To give some reference on the annual competition going into the final month of the year, here are the current standings on annual points for the Top 5.

Code:
     Overall 2019 Top (9/11)
01.  Lelouch0612              958.21
02.  Kaveri                   942.27
03.  Myriotes                 932.20
04.  Corporate Clown          921.57
05.  CosmicBolt               920.34
 
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GamingCJ

Member
Apr 14, 2019
1,907
Since not all the results are public, no numerical results are shown here. Also, the rankings are just a counter, so if two users are tied, it is not reflected in these results. To prevent backing out the numbers, only the monthly results for the top 3 predictors are shown. Annual results are still full results, though.

NPD Prediction Results - November 2019

Units

1. Corporate Clown
2. GamingCJ
3. oracion


Points
Code:
     November 2019                   Overall 2019 Top (9/11)
01.  Corporate Clown        ---.--   Lelouch0612            ---.--
02.  GamingCJ               ---.--   Kaveri                 ---.--
03.  oracion                ---.--   Myriotes               ---.--
04.                         ---.--   Corporate Clown        ---.--
05.                         ---.--   CosmicBolt             ---.--
06.                         ---.--   Ryng Manuel Tolu       ---.--
07.                         ---.--   gargles                ---.--
08.                         ---.--   Jeean                  ---.--
09.                         ---.--   James                  ---.--
10.                         ---.--   Andromeda              ---.--
11.                         ---.--   TurnoftheCentury       ---.--
12.                         ---.--   Welfare                ---.--
13.                         ---.--   Sterok                 ---.--
14.                         ---.--   Zedark                 ---.--
15.                         ---.--   pitseleh               ---.--
16.                         ---.--   jroc74                 ---.--
17.                         ---.--   donny2112              ---.--
18.                         ---.--   cakely                 ---.--
19.                         ---.--   KillerMan91            ---.--
20.                         ---.--   Bitch Pudding          ---.--
21.                         ---.--   score01                ---.--
22.                         ---.--   slavesnyder            ---.--
23.                         ---.--   Astrogamer             ---.--
24.                         ---.--   Hammer24               ---.--
25.                         ---.--   Moltres006             ---.--
26.                         ---.--   Darth Smurf X          ---.--
27.                         ---.--   El Manco               ---.--
28.                         ---.--   Elandyll               ---.--
29.                         ---.--   WestEgg                ---.--
30.                         ---.--   julian                 ---.--
31.                         ---.--   Pachter                ---.--
32.                         ---.--   ThatRandomCliff        ---.--
33.                         ---.--   kyo2004                ---.--
34.                         ---.--   Limabean01             ---.--
35.                         ---.--   Slarvax                ---.--
36.                         ---.--   plusaflag              ---.--
37.                         ---.--   IronTed                ---.--
38.                         ---.--   wilmbreak              ---.--
39.                         ---.--   DeuceGamer             ---.--
40.                         ---.--   SinCItyAssassin        ---.--
41.                         ---.--   Doctor Mario           ---.--
42.                         ---.--   useyourloaf            ---.--
43.                         ---.--   GamingCJ               ---.--
44.                         ---.--   Peek-a-boo!            ---.--
45.                         ---.--   MANUELF                ---.--
46.                         ---.--   Keith Stat             ---.--
47.                         ---.--   404LinkNotFound        ---.--
48.                         ---.--   brykuhn91              ---.--
49.                         ---.--   Mercenary09            ---.--
50.                         ---.--   Quintus                ---.--

Congratulations, Corporate Clown! :D
Cool, 2nd place!
 
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donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
620
#1 Predictor, for reference.
[NSW] 1395k
[PS4] 1090k
[XB1] 875k

--------------

Since not all the results are public, this is a "Just for Fun" ranking. The way it works is that the #1 predictor for the month using the actual results is assumed to be 100% correct, and everyone else is measured accordingly. These results are not official and not used in the annual rankings. Since the real results can't be shown, these are a substitute to be used "Just for Fun." (^_^)

ResetERA "Just for Fun" Prediction Results - November 2019
Note: Uses #1 predictor as "truth" and measures everyone else relative to them.


1. Corporate Clown - 0
2. oracion - 50,000
3. PortisheadBiscuit - 80,000
4. DarkDetective - 110,000
5. Welfare - 134,000
6. GamingCJ - 140,000
6. KillerMan91 - 140,000
8. gargles - 150,000
9. Myriotes - 190,000
10. Lelouch0612 - 195,000
11. Zorg1000 - 200,000
12. Elandyll - 220,000
12. Ryng Manuel Tolu - 220,000
12. jroc74 - 220,000
12. kjtc1979 - 220,000
16. Joseki - 245,000
17. Hammer24 - 267,000
18. donny2112 - 270,000
18. pitseleh - 270,000
20. Andromeda - 275,000
21. Astrogamer - 280,000
21. TurnoftheCentury - 280,000
23. Kaveri - 282,000
24. Darth Smurf X - 290,000
24. Xevross - 290,000
26. Moltres006 - 300,000
27. Jeean - 305,000
28. SinCItyAssassin - 320,000
29. Bitch Pudding - 337,000
30. IronTed - 340,000
31. Limabean01 - 341,000
32. hannybunny24 - 345,000
33. El Manco - 350,000
34. Melody Shreds - 360,000
34. Peek-a-boo! - 360,000
36. CosmicBolt - 361,000
37. slavesnyder - 370,000
38. Piston - 380,000
38. julian - 380,000
40. Kozy - 400,000
41. UmbriaPauly - 424,000
42. Zedark - 450,000
43. ThatRandomCliff - 469,000
44. Xbro - 470,000
45. cakely - 480,000
46. DeuceGamer - 485,000
47. James - 495,000
48. Fintendo - 498,000
49. Sterok - 510,000
50. Personablue - 520,000
51. The One Who Knocks - 590,000
52. Pachter - 670,000
53. skittzo0413 - 770,000
54. mrfusticle - 775,000
55. Juryvicious - 780,000
 

Xevross

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,048
Will update when I've finished my analysis but for now I've got these ranges:

1416k < Switch < 1462k
802k < XB1 < 873k
1074k < PS4

Not sure I will manage to find an upper bound on PS4, seems most of us underestimated it.
 

julian

Member
Oct 27, 2017
16,786
For how poorly I ranked I feel like I did a lot better than I expected given how much of a crapshoot November can be.
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,658
Will update when I've finished my analysis but for now I've got these ranges:

1416k < Switch < 1462k
802k < XB1 < 873k
1074k < PS4

Not sure I will manage to find an upper bound on PS4, seems most of us underestimated it.

Given that we know NSW did 830K during BF week, that puts the weekly average for weeks 1-3 at 203K using your mid-point.

Last year the full month weekly average was 339K. If the Switch did 500-700K during BF week last year, that puts the weekly average at 218-285K for non-BF weeks in 2018.

That makes the 2019 figure seem way low, as the non-BF weeks were higher in 2018 than they were in 2019. I know that 2018 had CM as an advantage, but is that enough to offset mainline Pokemon + LM3 + NSW Lite + better Jul-Oct SW slate?

So it looks like in terms of revenue, NPD Nov 2018 > Nov 2019, given that we are talking a difference of at most ~100K, but with the availability of the Switch Lite.
 

IronTed

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jun 6, 2019
1,435
Given that we know NSW did 830K during BF week, that puts the weekly average for weeks 1-3 at 203K using your mid-point.

Last year the full month weekly average was 339K. If the Switch did 500-700K during BF week last year, that puts the weekly average at 218-285K for non-BF weeks in 2018.

That makes the 2019 figure seem way low, as the non-BF weeks were higher in 2018 than they were in 2019. I know that 2018 had CM as an advantage, but is that enough to offset mainline Pokemon + LM3 + NSW Lite + better Jul-Oct SW slate?

So it looks like in terms of revenue, NPD Nov 2018 > Nov 2019, given that we are talking a difference of at most ~100K, but with the availability of the Switch Lite.

From NPD

"Hardware spending in November 2019 declined 26% compared to YA, to $891m. YTD HW spending has fallen 24% versus YA, to $2.9B. Only Nintendo Switch is showing year-to-date hardware sales growth."

Probably safe to assume it was down in revenue, it mentions Switch is up year to date but not for November.
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,658
From NPD

"Hardware spending in November 2019 declined 26% compared to YA, to $891m. YTD HW spending has fallen 24% versus YA, to $2.9B. Only Nintendo Switch is showing year-to-date hardware sales growth."

Probably safe to assume it was down in revenue, it mentions Switch is up year to date but not for November.

Yeah definitely seems like it.

A little underwhelming IMO, but so were Nintendo's deals so I guess that is to be expected.

Still expect >2M for Dec.
 

Xevross

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,048
Given that we know NSW did 830K during BF week, that puts the weekly average for weeks 1-3 at 203K using your mid-point.

Last year the full month weekly average was 339K. If the Switch did 500-700K during BF week last year, that puts the weekly average at 218-285K for non-BF weeks in 2018.

That makes the 2019 figure seem way low, as the non-BF weeks were higher in 2018 than they were in 2019. I know that 2018 had CM as an advantage, but is that enough to offset mainline Pokemon + LM3 + NSW Lite + better Jul-Oct SW slate?

So it looks like in terms of revenue, NPD Nov 2018 > Nov 2019, given that we are talking a difference of at most ~100K, but with the availability of the Switch Lite.
Cyber Monday is a very big week, probably over half of BF week (for Switch). I think it's more likely Switch was on the higher end of your BF 2018 range. Say 700k BF week then 400k cyber monday, that would put the first two weeks of Nov 2018 much below the weekly average of this year.

Hard to say without more numbers but seems fairly reasonable to me.
 
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IronTed

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jun 6, 2019
1,435
Cyber Monday is a very big week, probably over half of BF week (for Switch). I think it's more likely Switch was on the higher end of your BF 2018 range. Say 700k BF week then 400k cyber monday, that would put the first two weeks of Nov 2018 much below the weekly average of this year.

Hard to say without more numbers but seems fairly reasonable to me.

Yeah there's a lot of unknowns here. We don't know exact BF week numbers for both years, and therefore we don't fully the know the non-BF weeks. We also don't know the growth (or perhaps lack thereof) of Pokemon week compared to last year. And of course we can only estimate CM (did Mat ever comment on how significant it is?). And of course we have no idea how much the Lite is contributing. Even if we got real HW numbers these questions would probably remain.
 

cakely

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,149
Chicago
Congratulations, Corporate Clown!

This was my worst prediction for the year, I'm glad they drop one for the yearly rankings. I overestimated Switch and underestimated PS4.
 

Xevross

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,048
The ranges I gave earlier stand, I don't think anything better can be inferred given the top 3 predictors. Shame, I was hoping we could get more accurate estimates. I miss the leaks.
 

DeuceGamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,476
This is disappointing :(

To be clear, I still appreciate what donny2112 and everyone else does for the community. Just wish we got more information to help drive discussion.
 

GamingCJ

Member
Apr 14, 2019
1,907
Will update when I've finished my analysis but for now I've got these ranges:

1416k < Switch < 1462k
802k < XB1 < 873k
1074k < PS4

Not sure I will manage to find an upper bound on PS4, seems most of us underestimated it.
Thanks for calculating the ranges!

Switch clear winner as expected. A really successful console in the prime of its life cycle.

Playstation shows there is still a lot of demand when there are deals. Especially since the Only on PlayStation Bundle sold out before actual Black Friday.

Xbox with ok numbers, but comparibly less demand despite having great deals.
 

jroc74

Member
Oct 27, 2017
28,995
Thanks for calculating the ranges!

Switch clear winner as expected. A really successful console in the prime of its life cycle.

Playstation shows there is still a lot of demand when there are deals. Especially since the Only on PlayStation Bundle sold out before actual Black Friday.

Xbox with ok numbers, but comparibly less demand despite having great deals.
Honestly, IMO everything's going according to the popularity levels of each console.

I never wavered in my PS4, XBO picks despite news trickling out that the SAD was selling nice in some regions.

Sony actually putting some effort in the deals, stock helped.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Since not all the results are public, no numerical results are shown here. Also, the rankings are just a counter, so if two users are tied, it is not reflected in these results. To prevent backing out the numbers, only the monthly results for the top 3 predictors are shown. Annual results are still full results, though.

NPD Prediction Results - November 2019

Units

1. Corporate Clown
2. GamingCJ
3. oracion


Points
Code:
     November 2019                   Overall 2019 Top (9/11)
01.  Corporate Clown        ---.--   Lelouch0612            ---.--
02.  GamingCJ               ---.--   Kaveri                 ---.--
03.  oracion                ---.--   Myriotes               ---.--
04.                         ---.--   Corporate Clown        ---.--
05.                         ---.--   CosmicBolt             ---.--
06.                         ---.--   Ryng Manuel Tolu       ---.--
07.                         ---.--   gargles                ---.--
08.                         ---.--   Jeean                  ---.--
09.                         ---.--   James                  ---.--
10.                         ---.--   Andromeda              ---.--
11.                         ---.--   TurnoftheCentury       ---.--
12.                         ---.--   Welfare                ---.--
13.                         ---.--   Sterok                 ---.--
14.                         ---.--   Zedark                 ---.--
15.                         ---.--   pitseleh               ---.--
16.                         ---.--   jroc74                 ---.--
17.                         ---.--   donny2112              ---.--
18.                         ---.--   cakely                 ---.--
19.                         ---.--   KillerMan91            ---.--
20.                         ---.--   Bitch Pudding          ---.--
21.                         ---.--   score01                ---.--
22.                         ---.--   slavesnyder            ---.--
23.                         ---.--   Astrogamer             ---.--
24.                         ---.--   Hammer24               ---.--
25.                         ---.--   Moltres006             ---.--
26.                         ---.--   Darth Smurf X          ---.--
27.                         ---.--   El Manco               ---.--
28.                         ---.--   Elandyll               ---.--
29.                         ---.--   WestEgg                ---.--
30.                         ---.--   julian                 ---.--
31.                         ---.--   Pachter                ---.--
32.                         ---.--   ThatRandomCliff        ---.--
33.                         ---.--   kyo2004                ---.--
34.                         ---.--   Limabean01             ---.--
35.                         ---.--   Slarvax                ---.--
36.                         ---.--   plusaflag              ---.--
37.                         ---.--   IronTed                ---.--
38.                         ---.--   wilmbreak              ---.--
39.                         ---.--   DeuceGamer             ---.--
40.                         ---.--   SinCItyAssassin        ---.--
41.                         ---.--   Doctor Mario           ---.--
42.                         ---.--   useyourloaf            ---.--
43.                         ---.--   GamingCJ               ---.--
44.                         ---.--   Peek-a-boo!            ---.--
45.                         ---.--   MANUELF                ---.--
46.                         ---.--   Keith Stat             ---.--
47.                         ---.--   404LinkNotFound        ---.--
48.                         ---.--   brykuhn91              ---.--
49.                         ---.--   Mercenary09            ---.--
50.                         ---.--   Quintus                ---.--

Congratulations, Corporate Clown! :D

Edit:
To give some reference on the annual competition going into the final month of the year, here are the current standings on annual points for the Top 5.

Code:
     Overall 2019 Top (9/11)
01.  Lelouch0612              958.21
02.  Kaveri                   942.27
03.  Myriotes                 932.20
04.  Corporate Clown          921.57
05.  CosmicBolt               920.34
Donny what does the score used in the overall ranking represent ?
 
OP
OP

donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
620
Donny what does the score used in the overall ranking represent ?
Well, back when we got public numbers, the points would be shown, and for the Top 10, they would typically be 90s-120s for the month. The annual points is the sum of the top 9 of 11 of those monthly point totals per user. Therefore for December for Kaveri to pass you (for example), he'd have to at least have 16 more points on the monthly list than you, if the lowest months being thrown out didn't change. (The point system itself is a way to normalize the months making November totals worth as much as April totals. Otherwise, only Nov/Dec would matter to the year, if only unit differences were used.) The point in showing the Top 5 going into the final month is to show how close or far apart all are to have an idea of how well people need to do to try to move up to the top spot. (^_^)
 

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
Will update when I've finished my analysis but for now I've got these ranges:

1416k < Switch < 1462k
802k < XB1 < 873k
1074k < PS4

Not sure I will manage to find an upper bound on PS4, seems most of us underestimated it.

Switch numbers are really great, even PS4/XB1 seem good.

I knew Switch wasn't gonna be up YOY as much as some people hoped, having Cyber Monday in December is a big deal that many in this thread kinda underestimated imo, and i'm sure December numbers will be way better than what people think. being up YOY this month was already a big success.

the other 2 of course are doing good considering the age...