I wanted to take a moment to discuss about NPD analyst and ERA member Mat Piscatella's opinions about hardware cycles. Basically from October results, one of his "quick hit takes" is that "hardware cycles as we knew them are over".
He then explained:
Edit:
-----
And I think he's right. It's clear that both PS4 and Xbox One are still seeing tremendous success even when we are relatively late in their life cycles. 3DS is also seeing a similar situation in the US. This of course can be attributed to the Pro and X revisions, but I think there's also the other important factor mentioned by Mat: "bigger consumer response to promotion". But why is exactly this happening? What makes this generation's promotions more appealing to people than last gen's?
This also ties into Nintendo's ex-president statement about Switch having a 10 year life cycle. With revisions that boost the performance, there's really no need for a full successor in a long time if this trend continues.
But returning to Sony and Microsoft, it's evident they are working on next-gen consoles and will release as soon as 2020. Should those consoles be developed with longer life cycles in mind? Multiple revisions instead of a succesor in 6-7 years, so they have a 10 year cycle like Nintendo?
He then explained:
Edit:
So, probably should have used more concrete context. "Highly unpredictable" is really in reference to an expected range of error in a hardware forecast. Of course it isn't random, and of course hardware sales can be forecast. But the range of error is higher now. "Highly unpredictable" can signal randomness, which is certainly not the case here. Bad word choice on my part.
-----
And I think he's right. It's clear that both PS4 and Xbox One are still seeing tremendous success even when we are relatively late in their life cycles. 3DS is also seeing a similar situation in the US. This of course can be attributed to the Pro and X revisions, but I think there's also the other important factor mentioned by Mat: "bigger consumer response to promotion". But why is exactly this happening? What makes this generation's promotions more appealing to people than last gen's?
This also ties into Nintendo's ex-president statement about Switch having a 10 year life cycle. With revisions that boost the performance, there's really no need for a full successor in a long time if this trend continues.
But returning to Sony and Microsoft, it's evident they are working on next-gen consoles and will release as soon as 2020. Should those consoles be developed with longer life cycles in mind? Multiple revisions instead of a succesor in 6-7 years, so they have a 10 year cycle like Nintendo?
Last edited: