NPD April 2018: God of War #1 software, PS4 tops hardware charts

Benji

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This honestly makes me wonder what the ceiling is for TLOU Pt 2.

All early metrics in terms of this far out from launch are far ahead of what GoW was putting up
 

RexNovis

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Oct 25, 2017
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Both Switch and PS4 are doing really well and doing so while pursuing completely different development goals. Having a diverse approach to development and HW design only helps the industry appeal to a wider audience. We should all be really happy to see that both are resonating in the market.

I do not understand this incessant need to try and downplay ones performance in comparison to another. They are their own platforms and are far more different than they are alike. Stop focusing on what they are doing in comparison with each other and instead celebrate what they are doing independently.
 

jayu26

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Oct 25, 2017
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This honestly makes me wonder what the ceiling is for TLOU Pt 2.

All early metrics in terms of this far out from launch are far ahead of what GoW was putting up
Benji, would you say that God of War blew up around the time previews started dropping in March and then later after reviews dropped? This goes back to earlier discussion of how much do reviews (and meta scores) matter, at least for single player games.

My guess is that The Last of Us Part II is tracking like that because of implicit trust in Naughty Dog brand.
 

Benji

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How's Spider-Man looking? I think previously you said it was below what GoW was projecting.
Well depends on what you mean.

Spidey by social metrics is enormous. So things like online communities, Twitter, YouTube etc. its killing it.

But in terms of regular broad consumers I haven't seen the same sort of traction GoW had / has. Spidey isn't until September though so that coupled with reviews if they are really positive could push it higher
 

gundamkyoukai

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Oct 25, 2017
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This honestly makes me wonder what the ceiling is for TLOU Pt 2.

All early metrics in terms of this far out from launch are far ahead of what GoW was putting up
Having felling that it really going to be a monster .
Also as wordinthewater ask how is Spider-Man looking ?

Wonder how the marketing for that going to be .

EDIT thanks for the answer .
 

Benji

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Benji, would you say that God of War blew up around the time previews started dropping in March and then later after reviews dropped? This goes back to earlier discussion of how much do reviews (and meta scores) matter, at least for single player games.

My guess is that The Last of Us Part II is tracking like that because of implicit trust in Naughty Dog brand.
GoW always had pretty strong indicators but yeah there is no question that once previews hit it picked up. Reviews took it into another stratosphere though. Game was always going to do well but once reviews hit the thing took on a life of it's own

It'll be much bigger WW but in the US hard to tell.
Early metrics for TLOU Pt 2 in the US are significantly ahead of GoW in a similar time frame
 

dbcyber

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Oct 25, 2017
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GOW3 was the last time a Sony First Party did over a million in NPD I believe? Not even TLOU and Uncharted 4 managed that though had tremendous sales and long legs. Think Sony just fast tracked the sequel, still hope Cory gets to make an original IP.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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Well depends on what you mean.

Spidey by social metrics is enormous. So things like online communities, Twitter, YouTube etc. its killing it.

But in terms of regular broad consumers I haven't seen the same sort of traction GoW had / has. Spidey isn't until September though so that coupled with reviews if they are really positive could push it higher
Yeah I was talking about the second part. Guess the preview event will help with this and maybe a bit of a jump after the E3 presentation. Thank you.
 

jayu26

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Oct 25, 2017
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GoW always had pretty strong indicators but yeah there is no question that once previews hit it picked up. Reviews took it into another stratosphere though. Game was always going to do well but once reviews hit the thing took on a life of it's own
Interesting. Seems like the God of War brand is just very strong in the US. If The Last of Us Part II match God of War reviews then it is going to do some heavy damage.
 

nib95

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Oct 28, 2017
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Eh you could round to 1.9 if you felt of the mood
Holy moly. That's a good degree higher than I was expecting.

Doesn't that mean revenue was a fair amount above the $100m GTA San Andreas on the PS2 managed? That was the previous exclusive record that God of War broke after all.
 
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gundamkyoukai

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Oct 25, 2017
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GOW3 was the last time a Sony First Party did over a million in NPD I believe? Not even TLOU and Uncharted 4 managed that though had tremendous sales and long legs. Think Sony just fast tracked the sequel, still hope Cory gets to make an original IP.
Think HZD also did around a million and was also a new IP .
TLOU got close if i remember and it was new a new IP if it gets growth like UC it going to be huge .
 
Oct 25, 2017
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GOW3 was the last time a Sony First Party did over a million in NPD I believe? Not even TLOU and Uncharted 4 managed that though had tremendous sales and long legs. Think Sony just fast tracked the sequel, still hope Cory gets to make an original IP.
Think HZD also did around a million and was also a new IP .
TLOU got close if i remember and it was new if if get growth like UC it going to be huge .
Yeah, with digital, HZD>1M.
 

Benji

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Keep in mind it shouldn't be too surprsing TLOU is tracking so well

First one was widely loved, overall faith in ND, and God of War was coming off of an entry most didn't care about. GoW didn't really blow up until late.

That said, to me TLOU Pt 2 has a much better chance of outselling GoW than Spidey does
 
Oct 25, 2017
12,283
Keep in mind it shouldn't be too surprsing TLOU is tracking so well

First one was widely loved, overall faith in ND, and God of War was coming off of an entry most didn't care about. GoW didn't really blow up until late.

That said, to me TLOU Pt 2 has a much better chance of outselling GoW than Spidey does
True, but I know TLoU is going to get that big bump as it gets closer to launch like God of War did. If it is already much farther ahead, and we add the big bump that is to come......

Interesting times ahead!

God of War is definitely going to make it tough for TLoU and Spidey either way.
 

Nightengale

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TLOU Part II, looking at various social media metrics, are also very strong. At first glance, there's no 20mil views equivalent of GoW2's gameplay trailer, but combined views, views from non-PS channels, engagement numbers from those stuff are very very strong.

With only one game in the pocket, and without the spin-off test, it's hard to tell for sure, but it feels to me that TLOU is Sony's most fan-beloved IP right now, and the closest thing to what Zelda and Mario enjoys in in terms of extremely engaged fanbase in the Nintendo audience.
 
Oct 28, 2017
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True, but I know TLoU is going to get that big bump as it gets closer to launch like God of War did. If it is already much farther ahead, and we add the big bump that is to come......

Interesting times ahead!

God of War is definitely going to make it tough for TLoU and Spidey either way.
TLOU will sell more than GOW both domestically and WW. TLOU is a monster.
 

Benji

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TLOU Part II, looking at various social media metrics, are also very strong. At first glance, there's no 20mil views equivalent of GoW2's gameplay trailer, but combined views, views from non-PS channels, engagement numbers from those stuff are very very strong.

With only one game in the pocket, and without the spin-off test, it's hard to tell for sure, but it feels to me that TLOU is Sony's most fan-beloved IP right now, and the closest thing to what Zelda and Mario enjoys in in terms of extremely engaged fanbase in the Nintendo audience.
Yep. I think a big factor will be reviews.

I've mentioned it before but in terms of sales the difference beween say an 88 and a 90 Meta doesn't mean all that much.

But if you can get up into that 93 - 94 Meta range? Yeah that legit makes a difference. If TLOU can get into that territory like GoW did, I really wouldn't bet against it blowing up massively. Same could be said of Spidey of course but I need to see more real world consumer interest at the sort of level GoW / TLOU have before I strap myself to that train.
 
Oct 28, 2017
1,228
TLOU Part II, looking at various social media metrics, are also very strong. At first glance, there's no 20mil views equivalent of GoW2's gameplay trailer, but combined views, views from non-PS channels, engagement numbers from those stuff are very very strong.

With only one game in the pocket, and without the spin-off test, it's hard to tell for sure, but it feels to me that TLOU is Sony's most fan-beloved IP right now, and the closest thing to what Zelda and Mario enjoys in in terms of extremely engaged fanbase in the Nintendo audience.
IIRC the reveal trailer for TLOU had more than 50k share on ND’s Facebook page. That’s so much more than GOW. Also TLOU is much stronger internationally than GOW and it will be stronger domestically.
 

Phendrift

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Oct 25, 2017
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Yep. I think a big factor will be reviews.

I've mentioned it before but in terms of sales the difference beween say an 88 and a 90 Meta doesn't mean all that much.

But if you can get up into that 93 - 94 Meta range? Yeah that legit makes a difference. If TLOU can get into that territory like GoW did, I really wouldn't bet against it blowing up massively. Same could be said of Spidey of course but I need to see more real world consumer interest at the sort of level GoW / TLOU have before I strap myself to that train.
I remember people saying reviews didn’t matter.

It feels like they almost single handedly turned the tide for this game. Sony was super smart to put the embargo a whole week before the game released
 
Oct 28, 2017
1,228
Yep. I think a big factor will be reviews.

I've mentioned it before but in terms of sales the difference beween say an 88 and a 90 Meta doesn't mean all that much.

But if you can get up into that 93 - 94 Meta range? Yeah that legit makes a difference. If TLOU can get into that territory like GoW did, I really wouldn't bet against it blowing up massively. Same could be said of Spidey of course but I need to see more real world consumer interest at the sort of level GoW / TLOU have before I strap myself to that train.
Is GOW still showing strong legs this late in May?
 

Phendrift

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Oct 25, 2017
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Except Nintendo, I expect Pokemon to launch just after
Yeah, Nintendo does not give a shit.

I remember when they literally released 3D World and ALBW, their own big titles for both of their own systems, on the exact same day. Like, wtf

They will put Pokémon or Smash on the same day as Red Dead if they wanted to and not bat an eye. And honestly, it probably won’t hurt them.
 

Nightengale

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IIRC the reveal trailer for TLOU had more than 50k share on ND’s Facebook page. That’s so much more than GOW. Also TLOU is much stronger internationally than GOW and it will be stronger domestically.
Yeah, that's what I meant. There's no easy-to-gravitate to "whoa, so huge views on this trailer" ( partly contributed by Sony's late release of the TLOU2 reveal trailer, letting a 3rd-party channel share a similar view count ), but the high number of shares, likes, comments. The fact that those trailers have so many views on channels of different languages ( Spanish, Italian channels, etc ). The consistency of the view counts between the two trailers so far. It's doing really good numbers in its own way.
 

gundamkyoukai

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I remember people saying reviews didn’t matter.

It feels like they almost single handedly turned the tide for this game. Sony was super smart to put the embargo a whole week before the game released
Review help but i don't think it turn the tide .
It was the previews where hype begin to get big .
Plus social metrics for GOW was always looking good.

As for TLOU IMO even if the review for it 90 for eg i still think it going blow up .
ND games always show growth it's just a matter of how much .
 

Benji

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I remember people saying reviews didn’t matter.

It feels like they almost single handedly turned the tide for this game. Sony was super smart to put the embargo a whole week before the game released
Well it really depends. Sometime they genuinely don't

Look at Ubisoft's service games.Ghost Recon for example only reviewed a 70 Meta and still was a huge seller, with very strong legs.

That's why I stressed the REALLY HIGH score, that 93-94 Meta range genuinely start to make a difference. Once you get into that sort of crazy range it builds buzz by itself. To be clear though GoW was always going to be very big / successful. The review scores just escalated it into a whole other tier
 

Phendrift

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Oct 25, 2017
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Well it really depends. Sometime they genuinely don't

Look at Ubisoft's service games.Ghost Recon for example only reviewed a 70 Meta and still was a huge seller, with very strong legs.

That's why I stressed the REALLY HIGH score, that 93-94 Meta range genuinely start to make a difference. Once you get into that sort of crazy range it builds buzz by itself. To be clear though GoW was always going to be very big / successful. The review scores just escalated it into a whole other tier
Yeah, it depends on the type of game for sure. I definitely don’t think they matter much for multiplayer service games.

But these single player experiences like GoW, yeah, a super high meta and great WoM can do wonders. Certainly seemed to help BotW last year too, as evidenced by comparing it’s to those of Skyward Sword
 

gundamkyoukai

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Oct 25, 2017
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Well it really depends. Sometime they genuinely don't

Look at Ubisoft's service games.Ghost Recon for example only reviewed a 70 Meta and still was a huge seller, with very strong legs.

That's why I stressed the REALLY HIGH score, that 93-94 Meta range genuinely start to make a difference. Once you get into that sort of crazy range it builds buzz by itself. To be clear though GoW was always going to be very big / successful. The review scores just escalated it into a whole other tier
IMO that comes down to type of game .
Review seem to matter more for SP only type games.
GaaS \ MP games have much better time coming back from low reviews even more so with a good content plan .

Also wonder if Sony going to push the MP part of TLOU some what since it one of the few games they have which has MP.
 

allan-bh

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Oct 25, 2017
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GOW3 was the last time a Sony First Party did over a million in NPD I believe? Not even TLOU and Uncharted 4 managed that though had tremendous sales and long legs. Think Sony just fast tracked the sequel, still hope Cory gets to make an original IP.
It's likely that The Last of Us did over a million since retail sales were very close to that mark.

But nothing compares with ~1.9m for GoW. Amazing result
 

Arkaign

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Nov 25, 2017
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Terrible battery, replacement for breaking triggers. I've bought three and not because of how amazing the controller is.
I'm so puzzled by this, but I count myself lucky. I have the DS4 that came with my slim and one extra blue one. Both with the Nyko dual slot charging stand. Both have very heavy use, and never had the slightest problem with quality or battery.

Did have some used PS3 controllers with bad battery life though, and those also felt much flimsier. I did get a PS3 like 2013 or something though, so it was probably pretty well used by someone who was hard on it. Fresh battery from Amazon fixed em up though.

Thinking back, in gaming since 1982, the only controllers I've ever had break on me were those awful Atari sticks. NES, SMS, Genesis, SNES, TG16, PS1, N64, Dreamcast, PS2, GameCube, Xbox, 360, etc. Never a single issue after Atari.
 

jeromeSF

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Nov 2, 2017
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This honestly makes me wonder what the ceiling is for TLOU Pt 2.

All early metrics in terms of this far out from launch are far ahead of what GoW was putting up
If the reviews are great, I think it will be the best PS4 exclusive by a few millions. I can see a $199 bundle during 2020 holidays
 

Arkaign

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Nov 25, 2017
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Is Xbone microsofts WiiU? It almost seems brushed aside in sales threads now.
Not exactly, but in some respects?

There's a lot of people that have a really fuzzy memory of how Gen7 actually went. This was especially true when MS kept trumpeting that X1 was ahead of 360 in sales rates. Which of course was technically true, but super misleading.

OG Xbox was pretty low in sales, but built a pretty hardcore slice of customers. Thanks to a terrible deal with Nvidia, it ended early despite solid growth from Halo 1 and 2 being iconic juggernauts. However, MS/Xbox wasn't yet mainstream enough to be fully trusted by the average gaming community at large compared to Sony/Nintendo.

Enter 360, which launched pretty early to not very much fanfare. Holidays 2005, no Halo entry, high price for a console, supply shortages, and pretty mediocre sales to be honest. A lot of games were just waiting on PS3 due to big promises from Sony, and the incredible library of PS2 gave a lot of credibility to Sony in terms of delivering yet another massive success to follow PS1 and PS2, not to mention loads of features like HDMI, Blu-ray, and built in WiFi. All three of which were missing from 360.

As we all know, PS3 came in 06 at a ludicrous price of entry (though if you added WiFi and HDDVD to 360, it actually was competitive). It disappointed in terms of being distinctly more powerful than 360, and this was a bad look when Gears of War dropped in November 06, bringing the first landmark new IP to 7th Gen as a MS exclusive. Sales started to ramp up for MS, especially in the US and UK. It grew even more when improved models and Halo 3 followed in 07, with more reliable supply and distribution. This would remain a steady pattern all the way until Kinect, which caused a huge bubble of increased sales of Slim 360s. 360 even reached more than niche levels in mainland Europe and some RoW markets like Canada, Mideast, and Mexico.

So sales for 360 were : slow, moderate, rising, then massive, before slowing down sharply in the post Kinect bubble. Made it easy for X1 to launch and maintain a lead on 360 because of how slowly 360 started.

X1 launched on the coattails of 360, which had built a hardcore base of fans who expected a true sequel to 360 : a powerful, games focused unit with great exclusives and class leading multiplats. Initial sales were indeed massive to that dedicated fanbase. However, it didn't take long at all for that momentum to completely fizzle and turn pretty mediocre. Outside of US/UK, it turned into a pretty rough ride, often being outsold 8 to 1, 10 to 1, or worse, in countries like Germany, France, Spain, etc.

Purely in terms of US sales, X1 is not terribly far off from 360 levels of success up to this point. But in 360 lifetime, it hit Kinect around this time (5 years on), which gave 360 a big 2nd wind. Massive even. X1? Looks like it's pretty flat, up YoY but only compared to an utterly dismal 2017. Rest of world X1 is on life support, excepting UK, which is cooled off a bit on it compared to US (in ratio vs PS4), but remains somewhat solid. Mainland Europe, Asia, Africa, Mideast, and most of South America it almost seems like it's a dead platform.

But : it looks like it will EOL at 45-47 million units, with very healthy attach and digital purchase rates. This is several times higher than WiiU, and it's almost certainly profitable as a platform with no major issues, whereas OG and 360 were pretty bad overall in economic sense. Xbox from 2001-2012 probably lost money overall, perhaps substantial money. X1, despite lower sales than 360 should be massively more profitable than all previous Xbox history, perhaps unless you isolated only 2010-2011.

Definitely sets the stage for an interesting 9th Gen for Xbox. They now have quite a lot of experience in what not to do vs what is successful, and their recent moves (1X, BC, Gamepass, etc) seem to indicate good things. Despite not owning an X1, I'm moderately hopeful they can do better next time with their new outlook and corporate vibe.
 
Mar 17, 2018
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Wait so you complained they need to spend more to improve animation and then say animation has gotten better? huh?
Your answer is clearly in the paragraph you quoted, and it's really easy to understand. Yep, animation has definitely gotten better, especially relative to their horrid grass and field colors along with the dated player models. But pitching animations lack big time, and there are all sorts of issues. They definitely need to improve animation, and it should be a major focus going forward. But yeah they have gotten better. I don't think that is hard to understand.
 

RexNovis

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Oct 25, 2017
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The fact that SW that ranked so low in the over all list ranks so high in the Xbox platform list indicates that the SW sales on XB1 are ... not great.
 

hussmk

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Oct 29, 2017
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Keep in mind it shouldn't be too surprsing TLOU is tracking so well

First one was widely loved, overall faith in ND, and God of War was coming off of an entry most didn't care about. GoW didn't really blow up until late.

That said, to me TLOU Pt 2 has a much better chance of outselling GoW than Spidey does
Has TLOU PS4 passed the PS3 version in sales yet in the US?
 

Peek-a-boo!

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Oct 30, 2017
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Woodbridge
But it looks like it will EOL at 45-47 million units, with very healthy attach and digital purchase rates. This is several times higher than WiiU.
Bearing in mind that the Xbox One is (slowly) approaching 37 million units, and that it is currently up 15% YoY, even though I acknowledge that 2017 was a dismal year for the Xbox One, I find it a little bit difficult with 45-47 million being the EoL number, the latter figure of which would be almost exactly three and half times more units than the Wii U (13.56 million)!

Given that Microsoft goes crazy with bundles and prices, especially in both November and December respectively, I cannot see a scenario where they only sell another 8-10 million in the next two and a half years, between now and 2020.

Personally speaking, I think they will just about scrape by the 50 million milestone; 7 million this year, 4 or 5 million next year and a couple of million towards EoL for the Xbox One.

The fact that SW that ranked so low in the over all list ranks so high in the Xbox platform list indicates that the SW sales on XB1 are ... not great.
I know this the NPD thread, but the same applies for the PAL charts, which is the Xbox One second biggest market by a significant margin, and even that’s shrinking all the time...

I would like to think that GamePass is ‘making up’ those low numbers however, there doesn’t seem to be any real indication of just how many people are actually buying - and staying on - these service related products, seeing as Microsoft keeps those numbers to themselves.
 
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Gamer17

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Oct 30, 2017
5,691
Bearing in mind that the Xbox One is (slowly) approaching 37 million units, and that it is currently up 15% YoY, even though I acknowledge that 2017 was a dismal year for the Xbox One, I find it a little bit difficult with 45-47 million being the EoL number, the latter figure of which would be almost exactly three and half times more units than the Wii U (13.56 million)!

Given that Microsoft goes crazy with bundles and prices, especially in both November and December respectively, I cannot see a scenario where they only sell another 8-10 million in the next two and a half years, between now and 2020.

Personally speaking, I think they will just about scrape by the 50 million milestone; 7 million this year, 4 or 5 million next year and a couple of million towards EoL for the Xbox One.



I know this the NPD thread, but the same applies for the PAL charts, which is the Xbox One second biggest market by a significant margin, and even that’s shrinking all the time...

I would like to think that GamePass is ‘making up’ those low numbers however, there doesn’t seem to be any real indication of just how many people are actually buying - and staying on -these service related products, seeing as Microsoft keeps those numbers to themselves.
honestly at this pace i wouldn't be surprised to see MS start the next the gen in 2019.
 

MrTired

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Oct 28, 2017
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Bearing in mind that the Xbox One is (slowly) approaching 37 million units, and that it is currently up 15% YoY, even though I acknowledge that 2017 was a dismal year for the Xbox One, I find it a little bit difficult with 45-47 million being the EoL number, the latter figure of which would be almost exactly three and half times more units than the Wii U (13.56 million)!

Given that Microsoft goes crazy with bundles and prices, especially in both November and December respectively, I cannot see a scenario where they only sell another 8-10 million in the next two and a half years, between now and 2020.

Personally speaking, I think they will just about scrape by the 50 million milestone; 7 million this year, 4 or 5 million next year and a couple of million towards EoL for the Xbox One.



I know this the NPD thread, but the same applies for the PAL charts, which is the Xbox One second biggest market by a significant margin, and even that’s shrinking all the time...

I would like to think that GamePass is ‘making up’ those low numbers however, there doesn’t seem to be any real indication of just how many people are actually buying - and staying on - these service related products, seeing as Microsoft keeps those numbers to themselves.
Game pass would explain the low first party software but not third party. It's a shame we don't get plaftorm share breakdown for games.