NPD April 2018: God of War #1 software, PS4 tops hardware charts

Apr 29, 2018
274
God of war release did made me excited, something I have not felt in a long time about games. Reviews were big reason behind that.

Santa Monica decided to keep everything a secret. That was the big reason why people didn't cared much about it. Reviews did not told us what in their either but that flurry of 10s in beloved franchise was amazing to see.

Now I just need to get a ps4.
 
Nov 16, 2017
380
Game pass would explain the low first party software but not third party. It's a shame we don't get plaftorm share breakdown for games.
I think it can affect 3rd party. Instead of buying recently new game or any game. You just may say F it I’ll find something in gamepass
 
Oct 31, 2017
103
Y'all. C'mon now.

PS4 had an amazing month, certainly.

But this business is not a zero sum game. And cross-ownership is so high (and growing) that it's becoming more clear that each ecosystem is offering enough of a differentiation that, while of course these systems are still competitive, they're less directly in competition than we've ever seen.

Xbox One is up BIG on last year. And, with the numerous announcements of unique features, along with a stronger flow of software coming to support, bodes very well for now through the end of the gen.

Switch is still on pace to be the second best-selling console OF ALL TIME (it's fallen behind Wii recently because the launch month timing has given Wii two holidays over the same number of months Switch has had one). It also has Pokemon and Smash on the way, and it looks like a dockless version is possible which would incentivize multiple Switch ownership per owning household. I'm still forecasting Switch to take the top share spot in HW and physical SW sales and will keep that forecast until we get a date on Pokemon.

Just because the PS4 hit some record highs doesn't mean that the other platforms aren't performing well.

It's not a zero sum market. For your preferred console to win it does not mean that the other systems have to lose.
Hi Mat,

You said that the Xbox is up big on last year but they have the X which was not available last year and correct me if I'm wrong but my impression was that xbox sales were very soft last year before the holidays. To me the Xbox being up yoy is not surprising but I wonder what you think. We're you not expecting the Xbox to be up this year? Is it up more than you thought it would be?

Thanks
 
Nov 6, 2017
2,108
Minus digital I assume?cause if so thats almost double near what the best exclusives from the ps3 and ps4 era have done till now
Why 14m worldwide is on the cards when all is said and done
 
Oct 29, 2017
301
New York
I mean, not everyone is into games like The Last of Us, just like not everyone is into racing games or shooters. It doesn’t change that TLOU got so big some fans started crying when the sequel was revealed, heh.
I've never said it didnt. I just think Kratos is oneof the most iconic characters playstation has. If not the most.
 
Oct 29, 2017
301
New York
Nah. It didn't sell 70 million copies, so you're clearly not the only playstation fan who didn't buy it :)
It's one thing if you see that a game doesn't appeal to you. That's 100% normal, and healthy behavior for any consumer.
It's quite another thing if you can't imagine how it could appeal to anyone, which would belie a stunning lack of empathy or imagination.
I think i didnt express myself correctly, i'd said that because i dont think the main character in The Last of Us is as iconic as Kratos is to playstation.
 
Nov 15, 2017
1,857
Think HZD also did around a million and was also a new IP .
TLOU got close if i remember and it was new a new IP if it gets growth like UC it going to be huge .
TLOU had also a really solid MP which HZD and GoW don't have so TLOU2 is probably building on that which will give it legs + microtransaction revenue.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,724
This honestly makes me wonder what the ceiling is for TLOU Pt 2.

All early metrics in terms of this far out from launch are far ahead of what GoW was putting up
GoW's hard hard M rating always limited its appeal IMO. Its amazing it was as big as it was. 5 million + copies sold of a guy that rips another guy's head right off. TLOU is "hard M" but that hardness is so much softer these days when TV is filled with gritty post apocalyptic violence on every channel.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,368
Texas
I think i didnt express myself correctly, i'd said that because i dont think the main character in The Last of Us is as iconic as Kratos is to playstation.
Ah. Agreed. Though naughty dogs animators must have had more free time than the Santa Monica people, because damn did they put out some crazy meme gifs
 
Oct 28, 2017
555
what is a reasonable prediction for GoW? 12 million?
are people not going too far ahead?

GOW3 opened with over 1.1 million but its second month was not even 200k if i remember.
So 1.8-1.9 million first month is mighty impressive but i will not bet on its legs.
It will be impressive if second month is above 500k.

To hit 10+ million i think you need legs like Crash or TLOU. and although GOW is a fresh start but it is still a new entry in the series and existing series launch do not behave like a new IP in legs department. I think MatPiscatella or Benji can shed more light on the legs of a new entry in an existing series vs new IP.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,045
are people not going too far ahead?

GOW3 opened with over 1.1 million but its second month was not even 200k
if i remember.
So 1.8-1.9 million first month is mighty impressive but i will not bet on its legs.
It will be impressive if second month is above 500k.

To hit 10+ million i think you need legs like Crash or TLOU. and although GOW is a fresh start but it is still a new entry in the series and existing series launch do not behave like a new IP in legs department. I think MatPiscatella or Benji can shed more light on the legs of a new entry in an existing series vs new IP.
Yes, but it did just decent performance globally while this one is huge globally.
 

MatPiscatella

The NPD Group - Video Game Industry Analyst
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
1,874
Carlsbad, CA
As a non service game I expect God of War sales to be more frontloaded than historical comps, fwiw.

Hi Mat,

You said that the Xbox is up big on last year but they have the X which was not available last year and correct me if I'm wrong but my impression was that xbox sales were very soft last year before the holidays. To me the Xbox being up yoy is not surprising but I wonder what you think. We're you not expecting the Xbox to be up this year? Is it up more than you thought it would be?

Thanks
Any time console sales rise in the 6th calendar year of that console’s life it’s surprising.

Xbox hw sales are up, and we are seeing big upticks in Xbox accessory sales, game card sales, the new software that has come out like Sea of Thieves have done very well (better than I’d expected) and platform share of multiplat titles is strong.

I recently raised my Xbox One forecast to flat year on year, but I really don’t know what to think about Xbox One right now. A combination of PUBG/Fortnite/SoT/Gamepass has it humming along quite nicely so far this year, but of course we have many unknowns because the Xbox ecosystem is doing things very differently than historical comps so projecting has a very high range of error.
 

MatPiscatella

The NPD Group - Video Game Industry Analyst
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
1,874
Carlsbad, CA
Okay, I guess people just expected something else more significant, because GOW and PS4 going great was kind of expected.
No one expected it to set an all time PS exclusive record and for PS4 to have the highest April plat sw sales ever.

And what could have possibly been “more significant”? Come on.
 
Dec 1, 2017
472
are people not going too far ahead?

GOW3 opened with over 1.1 million but its second month was not even 200k if i remember.
So 1.8-1.9 million first month is mighty impressive but i will not bet on its legs.
It will be impressive if second month is above 500k.

To hit 10+ million i think you need legs like Crash or TLOU. and although GOW is a fresh start but it is still a new entry in the series and existing series launch do not behave like a new IP in legs department. I think MatPiscatella or Benji can shed more light on the legs of a new entry in an existing series vs new IP.
Well Benji said GoW has legs like a God so take that as you will I suppose.
 
Dec 1, 2017
472
Keep in mind I'm referring to the type of game it is. Its legging as well as it could for a single player only narrative driven game.

Not like a CoD, GTAV, etc.
Got it. I'm still pretty confident it'll outpace Horizon which is also a single player narrative driven game . I predict GoW to break the 10m barrier in 2-3 years.
 
Oct 28, 2017
3,895
are people not going too far ahead?

GOW3 opened with over 1.1 million but its second month was not even 200k if i remember.
So 1.8-1.9 million first month is mighty impressive but i will not bet on its legs.
It will be impressive if second month is above 500k.
GOW4 has become a huge event. It's on another level compared to GOW3. It's also on a more successful platform and the word of mouth is incredible. There's every reason to expect better legs for GOW4 than GOW3.

The only issue that might hurt GOW4 compared to GOW3 is timing. GOW3 came out in March, GOW4 in April. That means GOW4's second month is May, which is usually a slow month. But even despite that, GOW4 should have great legs.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,198
Keep in mind I'm referring to the type of game it is. Its legging as well as it could for a single player only narrative driven game.

Not like a CoD, GTAV, etc.
Which is good since i don't think anyone should expect legs like the big MP type games.
Lack of DLC , MTX etc etc makes the early sales even more important because of the ASP.
 
Oct 28, 2017
2,075
Not exactly, but in some respects?

There's a lot of people that have a really fuzzy memory of how Gen7 actually went. This was especially true when MS kept trumpeting that X1 was ahead of 360 in sales rates. Which of course was technically true, but super misleading.

OG Xbox was pretty low in sales, but built a pretty hardcore slice of customers. Thanks to a terrible deal with Nvidia, it ended early despite solid growth from Halo 1 and 2 being iconic juggernauts. However, MS/Xbox wasn't yet mainstream enough to be fully trusted by the average gaming community at large compared to Sony/Nintendo.

Enter 360, which launched pretty early to not very much fanfare. Holidays 2005, no Halo entry, high price for a console, supply shortages, and pretty mediocre sales to be honest. A lot of games were just waiting on PS3 due to big promises from Sony, and the incredible library of PS2 gave a lot of credibility to Sony in terms of delivering yet another massive success to follow PS1 and PS2, not to mention loads of features like HDMI, Blu-ray, and built in WiFi. All three of which were missing from 360.

As we all know, PS3 came in 06 at a ludicrous price of entry (though if you added WiFi and HDDVD to 360, it actually was competitive). It disappointed in terms of being distinctly more powerful than 360, and this was a bad look when Gears of War dropped in November 06, bringing the first landmark new IP to 7th Gen as a MS exclusive. Sales started to ramp up for MS, especially in the US and UK. It grew even more when improved models and Halo 3 followed in 07, with more reliable supply and distribution. This would remain a steady pattern all the way until Kinect, which caused a huge bubble of increased sales of Slim 360s. 360 even reached more than niche levels in mainland Europe and some RoW markets like Canada, Mideast, and Mexico.

So sales for 360 were : slow, moderate, rising, then massive, before slowing down sharply in the post Kinect bubble. Made it easy for X1 to launch and maintain a lead on 360 because of how slowly 360 started.

X1 launched on the coattails of 360, which had built a hardcore base of fans who expected a true sequel to 360 : a powerful, games focused unit with great exclusives and class leading multiplats. Initial sales were indeed massive to that dedicated fanbase. However, it didn't take long at all for that momentum to completely fizzle and turn pretty mediocre. Outside of US/UK, it turned into a pretty rough ride, often being outsold 8 to 1, 10 to 1, or worse, in countries like Germany, France, Spain, etc.

Purely in terms of US sales, X1 is not terribly far off from 360 levels of success up to this point. But in 360 lifetime, it hit Kinect around this time (5 years on), which gave 360 a big 2nd wind. Massive even. X1? Looks like it's pretty flat, up YoY but only compared to an utterly dismal 2017. Rest of world X1 is on life support, excepting UK, which is cooled off a bit on it compared to US (in ratio vs PS4), but remains somewhat solid. Mainland Europe, Asia, Africa, Mideast, and most of South America it almost seems like it's a dead platform.

But : it looks like it will EOL at 45-47 million units, with very healthy attach and digital purchase rates. This is several times higher than WiiU, and it's almost certainly profitable as a platform with no major issues, whereas OG and 360 were pretty bad overall in economic sense. Xbox from 2001-2012 probably lost money overall, perhaps substantial money. X1, despite lower sales than 360 should be massively more profitable than all previous Xbox history, perhaps unless you isolated only 2010-2011.

Definitely sets the stage for an interesting 9th Gen for Xbox. They now have quite a lot of experience in what not to do vs what is successful, and their recent moves (1X, BC, Gamepass, etc) seem to indicate good things. Despite not owning an X1, I'm moderately hopeful they can do better next time with their new outlook and corporate vibe.
Thank you for such a detailed response. Interesting to look at things from the bigger picture. So is Xbone in line to surpass 360 sales then? It looks like it won’t quite make it to half 360 lifetime sales.
 
Oct 26, 2017
4,011
Tampa
are people not going too far ahead?

GOW3 opened with over 1.1 million but its second month was not even 200k if i remember.
So 1.8-1.9 million first month is mighty impressive but i will not bet on its legs.
It will be impressive if second month is above 500k.

To hit 10+ million i think you need legs like Crash or TLOU. and although GOW is a fresh start but it is still a new entry in the series and existing series launch do not behave like a new IP in legs department. I think MatPiscatella or Benji can shed more light on the legs of a new entry in an existing series vs new IP.
Still concerned eh?

should we read anything into the lack of Sony press release on God of War world wide sales over the first weekend?
A bit transparent :x
 
Oct 28, 2017
2,075
honestly at this pace i wouldn't be surprised to see MS start the next the gen in 2019.
This is more of what I meant comparing it to WiiU. Not so much sales numbers, but rather shortening this gen to launch a new better hardware to start next gen regardless of when they launched X. I could see it.

And if that happens, the EoL sales will be much lower than predicted for Xbone.
 
Is the Wii the best selling console of all-time? I always thought it never caught the PS2, or the Nintendo DS for that matter.

Y'all. C'mon now.

PS4 had an amazing month, certainly.

But this business is not a zero sum game. And cross-ownership is so high (and growing) that it's becoming more clear that each ecosystem is offering enough of a differentiation that, while of course these systems are still competitive, they're less directly in competition than we've ever seen.

Xbox One is up BIG on last year. And, with the numerous announcements of unique features, along with a stronger flow of software coming to support, bodes very well for now through the end of the gen.

Switch is still on pace to be the second best-selling console OF ALL TIME (it's fallen behind Wii recently because the launch month timing has given Wii two holidays over the same number of months Switch has had one). It also has Pokemon and Smash on the way, and it looks like a dockless version is possible which would incentivize multiple Switch ownership per owning household. I'm still forecasting Switch to take the top share spot in HW and physical SW sales and will keep that forecast until we get a date on Pokemon.

Just because the PS4 hit some record highs doesn't mean that the other platforms aren't performing well.

It's not a zero sum market. For your preferred console to win it does not mean that the other systems have to lose.