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TanookiTom

Member
Oct 29, 2017
686
Berlin
Not sure how accurate that is, since Xenoblade had a special edition which gives it an advantage in revenue. The question is how many of those were available, of course.

True of course, but I think even something like 200+k would be considered at least a moderate success for Skyrim in the US, no? And from anecdotal evidence it seems to be chugging along in the mid-range chart positions on Amazon, the Euro charts etc.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Thanks for this info. That's good enough for me.



Oh, the 280,000 figure may not be fully accurate? That definitely makes it more difficult to guess Skyrim, but even if it's a bit lower that would still seem to be a solid start for Skyrim.
Sorry, I wasn't clear. 280k for XBC2 is accurate, but it's not accurate to say that Skyrim is necessarily below that. It could be slightly above XBC2 but below it in revenue due to the special edition XBC2 had.
 
Oct 28, 2017
58
[QUOTE="MatPiscatella, post: 3492654, member: 2785"]
All 3 consoles did exceptionally well. In my mind, looking at the data, it's really a three way tie for "winning" Q4. The gaps in both Units and Spending between the three are quite small. No one ran away with the quarter. Each platform has found its own audience.[/QUOTE]
Terrible news! How can one fanboy faction use these numbers to gloat if all parties are putting up healthy numbers?! Ugh, maybe next month.

(Jk. Glad to see that all the usual suspects are doing gangbusters and the NPD thread is, like, 100% more civil than the last couple.)

Edit: One thing I'm super salty about is how difficult it is to do literally anything from my damn iPhone while posting. Down with Apple. Boo!
 

DeuceGamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,476
Sorry, I wasn't clear. 280k for XBC2 is accurate, but it's not accurate to say that Skyrim is necessarily below that. It could be slightly above XBC2 but below it in revenue due to the special edition XBC2 had.

Oh, I see and that makes sense. I would guess it should at ~260-270k or higher then, right?

Thanks for clarifying that.
 

Akita One

Member
Oct 30, 2017
4,628
Wow, Super Mario Odyssey managed to pass Mario Kart, and Destiny 2 still sold strong in December not counting Battle.net (and with all of the internet against it)...Xenoblade made top 20 and ARMS made the top ten Nintendo sellers of 2017...all my favorite new releases of 2017 came out big...

giphy.gif
 

erikNORML

Member
Oct 30, 2017
1,709
From a sales perspective, fine to great. However, without knowing digital, and without knowing the budgets behind these versions, impossible to say what's good and what's not so good for the titles themselves.

Sounds good enough to me. I can't imagine the ports were THAT expensive. I'd imagine for sales Skyrim > Doom > LA Noire (even though LA Noire seems to at least be outselling the XB version). I'd imagine with digital sales incorporated that Bethesda should at least be generally pleased with their first experiment. Would love to see one of their new games released day and date with other platforms to see how it can really compete when its not older (but solid) ports. I personally am loving the hell out of all three on Switch.
 
Oct 25, 2017
13,246
I'll be interest to see Labos performance in a few months. It seems to be a huge hit with Nintendo's core audience already, but I wonder how it'll do with the intended target audience.

Cardboard and the price point seem like an iffy proposition for kids.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
True of course, but I think even something like 200+k would be considered at least a moderate success for Skyrim in the US, no? And from anecdotal evidence it seems to be chugging along in the mid-range chart positions on Amazon, the Euro charts etc.
I'm very confident Skyrim should be well past 200k by now. From John Harker about November:
Not counting December, id put skyrim below 150k, where'd 200k+ come from?
So, Skyrim <150k. This month, it will have continued to sell, so I think >100k is very reasonable as an estimate. That would put it closer to 250k than 200k (assuming John didn't define something like 105k as "below 150k). That said, I think Skyrim might have sold a bit more than 100k, possibly up to 130k-150k, putting the absolute upper limit at 300k. Now, that would probably violate its ranking below Xenoblade, so we need to go down, but I think maybe 250k to 280k is a fair guess. Skyrim will continue to sell, too, so it should comfortably pass the 1 million mark imo.

Edit: Sorry Mat, I didn't mean to quote you here!
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Hello MatPiscatella

I am still amazed by GTAV legs. What a tremendous success !

I was wondering in what extent people are buying a PS4/X1 to play this game. Is it the main reason or one among many others ?

I am sure that you have been wondering what king of impact a possible GTAV on Switch could have. I was hoping that you could share some of your thoughts on the subject ? (Evergreen ? How succesful ? What impact on HW and on other versions legs ?).

Thank you very much !
 
Oct 26, 2017
7,981
US + Japan sold 4.1M units according to NPD and MC during that period which would mean about 3M for the rest of the world. Possible? I'd say so.

Would be absolutely massive first 10 months for the Switch if that's true.

Possible but sounds a little too high for 'other', at least going by how shipments tend to be somewhere between NA and Japan figures. Shipments aren't everything of course but we'll hear more about them at the end of the month.
 

Echizen

Member
Oct 27, 2017
597
Not sure how accurate that is, since Xenoblade had a special edition which gives it an advantage in revenue. The question is how many of those were available, of course.

People who wanted the Xenoblade Chronicles 2 special edition didn't have too much trouble pre-ordering one or finding it at launch. It seemed to be pretty well supplied.

But yeah, it's hard to say how much of an impact it had without actual numbers.
 

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,119
Basically telling them that they are getting inaccurate and lower representation on a set of charts that is increasingly getting more and more attention?

The PR piece is a side benefit. The real benefit is being able to see the rest of the digital marketplace for benchmarking, planning and forecasting. Folks only get to see what they share.

I was wondering in what extent people are buying a PS4/X1 to play this game.

There's a correlation between hardware sales and sales of GTAV. It's one of the games that people regularly buy when they buy a new console. But it's also an exceptional seller to non-HW buyers. As to why people are buying a particular console? Don't know. But some correlation exists.
 

marc^o^

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,206
Paris, France
I'll be interest to see Labos performance in a few months. It seems to be a huge hit with Nintendo's core audience already, but I wonder how it'll do with the intended target audience.

Cardboard and the price point seem like an iffy proposition for kids.
It will definitely be interesting to see. Nintendo managed to sell over 30 millions balance boards at $90.

Few believed it would succed at that price, even after Japanese's successful launch.
https://www.wired.com/2008/04/wii-fit-price-t/
 

Driver

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,053
Southern California
General stats from the NPD report for December 2017
  • Total: $3.29 billion (up 10 percent from $3 billion in December 2016)
  • Hardware: $1.27 billion (up 27 percent from $997 million)
  • Console software: $1.24 billion (up 2 percent from $1.22 billion)
  • PC software: $40 million (down 17 percent from $48 million)
  • Accessories: $735 million (flat from $734 million)

Jesus Christ, Console Software absolutely dwarfs PC software. Not even close.
 

cakely

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,149
Chicago
Looking at the best selling games of 2017 list is a little bit of a bummer.

Of the big three, only the Switch list doesn't read like a usual suspects list of yearly mega-franchises, and 2017 was a really good year for a great variety of very good games.
 

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,119
Jesus Christ, Console Software absolutely dwarfs PC software. Not even close.

Ehhhhhh PC software here is only full game downloads from STEAM for members of the digital leader panel. It's a miniscule portion of overall PC sales and I really shouldn't even break it out anymore. You know what? In January I won't. I'll just roll it all up together.
 

Bunkles

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
5,663
The PR piece is a side benefit. The real benefit is being able to see the rest of the digital marketplace for benchmarking, planning and forecasting. Folks only get to see what they share.

Thanks for the info. I hope they come around because, as an armchair analyst, I'd love a more accurate view of how Switch software is doing. :)
 

Driver

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,053
Southern California
Ehhhhhh PC software here is only full game downloads from STEAM for members of the digital leader panel. It's a miniscule portion of overall PC sales and I really shouldn't even break it out anymore. You know what? In January I won't. I'll just roll it all up together.

I figured there was something I was missing there. Too bad we can't get a more accurate comparison. Its an interesting stat.
 

Saty

Member
Oct 27, 2017
610
Matt, i'm sure NPD has it's equivalent of Steamspy, crawling user data for NA only. Where would PUBG place in the overall 2017 top 10 list if you include your estimation of North America Steam copies sold?
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Possible but sounds a little too high for 'other', at least going by how shipments tend to be somewhere between NA and Japan figures. Shipments aren't everything of course but we'll hear more about them at the end of the month.
Looking at last quarter's LTD shipments, we see the following:

Japan = 1.95M (25.6%)
Americas = 3.11M (40.8%)
Other = 2.56M (33.6%)
Total = 7.63M

It should be noted, of course, that NPD only gives US numbers, so the Americas category cannot be wholly ascribed to the US (i.e. the 4.1M is Japan+US rather than Japan+NA). Using estimates from the first quarter, the Switch had sold 906k in US, while shipments to Americas were 1.20M. Now, we can't take the ratio from that directly, either, since some units would still be in transit, and therefore shipped but not sold to the US. The question is: what percentage of Americas is US? We don't know, so let's try some scenarios that could be true, namely 80%, 85%, and 90%

80%: Japan + US = 25.6 + 0.80*40.8 = 58.24% of total sales -> Total sales in Q4 = 4.1/0.5824 = 7.04M
85%: Japan + US = 25.6 + 0.85*40.8 = 60.28% of total sales -> Total sales in Q4 = 4.1/0.6028 = 6.80M
90%: Japan + US = 25.6 + 0.90*40.8 = 62.32% of total sales -> Total sales in Q4 = 4.1/0.6232 = 6.58M

Some final remarks: the numbers for Japan and US are shipped, not sold. The US had some stock left, but even when Japan doesn't, there could still be some units in transit, meaning that the shipped numbers is higher. This problem also presents itself in the reasoning above: the 7.63M is not sold through, but shipped. Therefore, we had to make the uncertain assumption that sell-through compared to shipments is everywhere approximately equal. We already know this isn't true in Japan, where every unit is sold (almost) as soon as it hits store shelves. So, keep that in mind when reading/using the numbers above.
 

Kusagari

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,436
Danganronpa making the top 2 of a systems yearly list is pretty awesome, even if it's for a dead system.
 

slavesnyder

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,127
SlaveSnyder Media Corp.
I'll be interest to see Labos performance in a few months. It seems to be a huge hit with Nintendo's core audience already, but I wonder how it'll do with the intended target audience.

Cardboard and the price point seem like an iffy proposition for kids.
The few days of spotlight for Labo are already counted as right now Microsoft Research Labs are developing a counter-attack to best this cheap cardboard nonsense. As technological leader they will release their own construction kits based on chipboard, including a jigsaw and wood glue.
 
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Instro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,018
Semi OT

"Analyst says Nintendo might have sold 7 million Switch units in Oct-Dec globally, which would bring life-to-date figure at more than 14.6 million. Nintendo reports its 3rd FY-quarter results at the end of this month."



So that would leave then with needing ~2m units in Q4 to beat their FY forecast. Seems reasonable.
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,500
Looking at the best selling games of 2017 list is a little bit of a bummer.

Of the big three, only the Switch list doesn't read like a usual suspects list of yearly mega-franchises, and 2017 was a really good year for a great variety of very good games.

Mega franchises are megafranchises because they appeal to the masses. I dont get why this is a problem or even a bummer.
 
Oct 26, 2017
7,981
Looking at last quarter's LTD shipments, we see the following:

Japan = 1.95M (25.6%)
Americas = 3.11M (40.8%)
Other = 2.56M (33.6%)
Total = 7.63M

I essentially expected all these numbers to double in the quarter, which might be a little optimistic but not far off. They would still need a few million this quarter to exceed their revised target.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Looking at the best selling games of 2017 list is a little bit of a bummer.

Of the big three, only the Switch list doesn't read like a usual suspects list of yearly mega-franchises, and 2017 was a really good year for a great variety of very good games.
The most mainstream crowd doesn't care about that variety for the most part. In fact, there's somethiing to be said for the idea that having a larger variety of less popular titles makes it even less likely that one of them will break the top 10 for the year, as the audience for it will be split between the many great releases.

Not that the games you're talking about have any chance either way (i.e. Nier, Persona, Fire Emblem, and many more).
 

Apex88

Member
Jan 15, 2018
1,428
We know Mario Kart Deluxe sold ~2.4 million in the US so far (according to Nintendo)

We know Mario Kart Deluxe without digital numbers is #10 on overall software sales this year in the US.

So we can surmise that Horizon had to have sold < 2 million in the US to not crack the top 10.

I don't think it's sold over 300k in Japan...has it?

I find it hard to believe 3.7 million sold in Europe and other territories....?
Europe itself is now a larger market for PlayStation than the US ( with the gap growing). Over here Horizon has also played a more prominent role in retailer promotions and bundles. When tallying up these things we also tend to underestimate 'other' territories, particularly as many are emerging markets.

It's all guestimates, with an unknown digital percentage. 2.4m sales in 8 months (from April 30th's 3.4m), could be considered on the high side. But when you consider the amount of new systems sold in the intervening period (15m?), plus existing owners who where waiting to pick it up, I think we're in the ballpark around 5m-6m.

These days it always seems the community has a ballpark lifetime sales figure in mind based on limited data. But then we're surprised when actual figures come out. Only this week we heard Heavy Rain was at 5.3m, well above estimates.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
We know Mario Kart Deluxe sold ~2.4 million in the US so far (according to Nintendo)

We know Mario Kart Deluxe without digital numbers is #10 on overall software sales this year in the US.

So we can surmise that Horizon had to have sold < 2 million in the US to not crack the top 10.

I don't think it's sold over 300k in Japan...has it?

I find it hard to believe 3.7 million sold in Europe and other territories....?
The game sold 2.6 million in two weeks after release. Meanwhile, the US sales number for the game was just over 1 million according to John Harker, and this is after more than 4 weeks of sales. It seems reasonable to assume that at least at the end of March, the ratio US:ROTW was 1:2 (1 million US, 2 million ROTW). If that ratio has kept up, then WW would be under 6M by your estimation. I personally think that 5M-5.5M is a reasonable if uneducated guess for the game, which is nothing if not a really good debut for an exclusive new IP by a studio with no pedigree in this genre.
 

cakely

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,149
Chicago
The most mainstream crowd doesn't care about that variety for the most part. In fact, there's somethiing to be said for the idea that having a larger variety of less popular titles makes it even less likely that one of them will break the top 10 for the year, as the audience for it will be split between the many great releases.

Not that the games you're talking about have any chance either way (i.e. Nier, Persona, Fire Emblem, and many more).

You're right, of course. It's not a problem, it's the reality of a sales-based (or revenue-based?) list of a year's worth of games.
 

Apex88

Member
Jan 15, 2018
1,428
The most mainstream crowd doesn't care about that variety for the most part. In fact, there's somethiing to be said for the idea that having a larger variety of less popular titles makes it even less likely that one of them will break the top 10 for the year, as the audience for it will be split between the many great releases.

Not that the games you're talking about have any chance either way (i.e. Nier, Persona, Fire Emblem, and many more).
Even the biggest yearly multiplats only sell to a fraction of the usersbase. We get hooked into lumping all multiplats together, and often underplayng the importance of exclusives or smaller titles. Everyone has different tastes, a mix match of games, it's this diverse library that gives a system mainstream appeal.

This seems to be playing itself out in the market. You have your mainstays like CoD, but it's the MLB's, Persona's, Horizon's etc. that bring a larger section of the mainstream audience to your platform versus the competition.

It's only really Nintendo that's out on its own and a pure exclusives machine. That may change a little with the Switch as people choose certain multiplats on that platform for the mobile option.
 

Psycho_Mantis

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,965
Persona above Nier and Fire Emblem? In what universe?

Reality. Persona 5 and Nier could swap though.

Seems fair, you missed Yokai Watch, though. Not sure where it should go, though. The second game sold over 3 million just in Japan, but the third game was down a lot. Still, it's over 1.5 million Japan only, so I would at least put it in the same category as Persona, Nier and Fire Emblem, and maybe even in the top tier category, as it has the potential to sell above Soulsborne games.

Forgot YW. Yeah it would probably be in the 2 million category.

Calling Dark Souls, Nier, and Ni-Oh JRPGs seems like a big stretch.

They are Japanese RPGs so no, its correct.

Yeah, no. Fire Emblem is easily above NieR and Persona, and so is Xenoblade now above Tales, Valkyria Chronicles and Ni No Kuni. I'd put MH above Soulsborne too, but waiting for the release of World to judge that is probably better.

VC did 2 million, Ni No Kuni did 1.1 million. ToZ is most likely 1 million+. The only reason I placed Tales above is because it was able to do 1 million+ in some past games, though they could very well be on the same level.
 

ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
Ehhhhhh PC software here is only full game downloads from STEAM for members of the digital leader panel. It's a miniscule portion of overall PC sales and I really shouldn't even break it out anymore. You know what? In January I won't. I'll just roll it all up together.
how often do you guys check steam spy? given the nature of PC gaming, it's probably the best measure (even if flawed) of the landscape. too bad there's no Origin Spy or Battle.net Spy
 

Bitch Pudding

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,202

The big picture is important here. Their system sold the most units this holiday season and basically all they needed was a one week fire sale which moved a severe amount of sales from December into November. That firesale was cross-financed by all the other consoles sold in that period for regular MRSP (and that $249 BF bundle which was introduced far too late to make a difference).
 

StevieP

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,276
Reality. Persona 5 and Nier could swap though.



Forgot YW. Yeah it would probably be in the 2 million category.



They are Japanese RPGs so no, its correct.



VC did 2 million, Ni No Kuni did 1.1 million. ToZ is most likely 1 million+. The only reason I placed Tales above is because it was able to do 1 million+ in some past games, though they could very well be on the same level.

Breath of the Wild is certainly a successful JRPG
 

Revolsin

Usage of alt-account.
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,373
Skyrim being the #10 best selling Switch game of 2017 despite just 2 months of sales is quite amazing, and paints a bright picture for big 3rd party games on it.

Skyrim on Switch was very overpriced compared to other consoles, and was essentially a port of a 6-7 year old game that's already been ported tons of times. So for upcoming 3rd party games that actually have price parity and are releasing simultaneously as other consoles like Dark Souls, I'm expecting seriously great results. Switch's version of Dark Souls might even outsell the other new ones despite the massive userbase gulf.
 
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