Seems like the obvious route for Nintendo to take with Virtual Console.
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NPD December 2017: Call of Duty WW2 #1 SW, Nintendo Switch #1 HW
- Thread starter Mpl90
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if we go by the history, both will, Sony will do it as soon as other tested the water without being burnt on the stake by public opinion/ backslash
Nintendo will eventually does it. when they figure out how to code it emselves from scratch
Nintendo and obvious often doesn't get along, though. Their service side of things are the weakest of all platform holders, and I can see Nintendo trying some weird things on their service, especially Virtual Console
Everyone at Nintendo must be so happy right now, especially after the Wii U flop. Nintendo might have a lot of money in the bank, but they really needed the Switch to be successful. I don't know if they could have made a comeback if the Switch ended up a failure as well. Congrats to Nintendo.
So what you're saying is there could be a bunch of isolated applications on consoles in the near future, every single one of them focussing on "their" games together with a bunch of older non-AA(A) titles from other publishers?
This is industry changing indeed, and probably a healthier approach than Steam on PC (as you get some real competition). But from a user perspective, I don't know if I'm a fan of adding half a dozen of subscriptions to play all the games I want.
And if MS goes "all-in" one might ask why the NextBox should be equipped with an optical drive in the first place.
Interesting.
Well, will see what Kodera will do.
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let's see if game pass can offer a steady stream of quality content like netflix of just masses of greasy undigestible fillers like the all you can eat at the bamboo garden restaurant around the corner.
i'd love to see how recoupment will work out.
i'd love to see how recoupment will work out.
Game pass is weird, because you need a subscription to play the games AND a subscription to play online, but then all of MS first party output is geared towards online, so effectively most people need double Microsoft subscriptions to get going. I could see this turn off quite a number of customers. Well, money conscious customers, which as we see from the proliferation of GaaS, are not necessary to run a business on.
You need the sub to play online regardless with game pass or not. Same with Sony. The difference is an additional 10 bucks a month give you access to 150 games including new first party games. It's only weird if you want to own the games and you have that option too at a discount.
However you look at it it's a tremendous value of their competition offer.
you might need online fee and game pass fee to finally be ready to invest in microtransactions.
Yeah yeah but how often do you take two separate subscriptions at the same company? I feel like it will hurt the perception of Xbox Live Gold.
Yeah, they should definetly lump these two together. It would make live much, much better than the competition.
Ah thanks for that...earlier in the thread I was guesstimating sub 2 million US sales so far for Horizon based on it not being in the top 10 sales of 2017, but Mario Kart 8 being #10 even without digital added....nice to have it somewhat confirmed.
With ~250k sold in Japan...it would have to have sold 3 million in the rest of the world to be past 5 million now.
It's possibke Horizon could have sold that much more in Europe and other territories more than it did in the US...just don't think it's probable
I thought we already know that Nintendo has some sort of Netflix type subscription plan for their "VC" line of games on the Switch?
Last June they announced a $20 a year service allowing you access to a library of classic Nintendo games.
Neat. I agree with your predictions.
It'll be interesting to see how big an impact Game Pass will have. I expect it to do well.
I agree with you that PS5 and the next Xbox will launch in 2020. And this is very good news for Nintendo if true.
Great piece overall, thanks for sharing.
Nice article, thanks for sharing. Can you offer us some insights on why you think the next PS and Xbox will launch in 2020?. It seems too soon after ps4 having such a wonderful 2017 and Microsoft releasing the X.
Wow, thanks for the positive feedback, all! I'll take it!
Gotta keep in mind that holiday 2020 is 3 holidays away. And yes, while PS4/Xone both had very strong years in the US in 2017, both have shown signs of already being at or past peak performance and have had to rely more heavily on price promotion to stay there. 2020 is the only real option I see, although I can imagine one may want to get the jump with a 2019 release, but I wouldn't think that prudent. Bigger question to me is what those new boxes will look like. Will both have physical media drives in all units, or will some come disc-less? Will both even really be traditional consoles as we've known them to date? What do the things like subscription services look like by then? How will net neutrality/ISP caps impact the games space in the coming years in between? Most importantly, how does Nintendo move the market over the next few years? Will it stay incremental and basically non-competitive with the PS4/Xone, or will Switch start to capture more of those dollars that would, in other gens, have gone exclusively to the more core boxes? Where's the PC in all this mess?
It's tough to see since we're all living it, but this is a moment of intense and rapid change in the gaming space. The next few years, and how the big companies react to these changes, will be fascinating to watch.
I also could be completely wrong lol.
Heh. I'll put this in my annual review.
Gotta keep in mind that holiday 2020 is 3 holidays away. And yes, while PS4/Xone both had very strong years in the US in 2017, both have shown signs of already being at or past peak performance and have had to rely more heavily on price promotion to stay there. 2020 is the only real option I see, although I can imagine one may want to get the jump with a 2019 release, but I wouldn't think that prudent. Bigger question to me is what those new boxes will look like. Will both have physical media drives in all units, or will some come disc-less? Will both even really be traditional consoles as we've known them to date? What do the things like subscription services look like by then? How will net neutrality/ISP caps impact the games space in the coming years in between? Most importantly, how does Nintendo move the market over the next few years? Will it stay incremental and basically non-competitive with the PS4/Xone, or will Switch start to capture more of those dollars that would, in other gens, have gone exclusively to the more core boxes? Where's the PC in all this mess?
It's tough to see since we're all living it, but this is a moment of intense and rapid change in the gaming space. The next few years, and how the big companies react to these changes, will be fascinating to watch.
I also could be completely wrong lol.
Heh. I'll put this in my annual review.
I also read your predictions Mat! Your 2017 ones were very well done indeed so I will take these as facts with immediate effect. Joking but it was a very good read :)
Hope you weren't referring to dedicated gaming boards with that "Switch online subscription to be received warmly" lol. I too expect it to do well but oh booooooy I don't think it will go down well here...
Core gaming boards misunderstand a Nintendo offering and its potential??
Say whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?
haha too true
The online service will do just fine. The typical Switch consumer will eat up the "free" NES games offered each month and $20-$30 per year will be an easy pill for most families to swallow.
To be fair it is a big change mentally to go from something you've had access to for free for a while to having to pay for it, so I totally get the disappointment and skepticism at this stage.
But yeah there is of course form for ridiculous overreactions as you say and that what I'm not looking forward to. If I had a penny for every "lol they're charging $80 for cardboard" posted here in relation to Labo I'd be a very rich man indeed, for example.
MatPiscatella
thank for sharing!
How do you think the share of software sales between digital and retail will develop for the three competitors?
thank for sharing!
How do you think the share of software sales between digital and retail will develop for the three competitors?
Nice read, Mat. Albeit I do disagree with ONE thing. I think the PS5/XB2 will be BOTH unveiled and released in 2020
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I can see that. 7 year gen seems about right (8 if you want to count Wii U lol).
I think we will see a "New" Nintendo Switch by then too. Form factor won't change much, but it will have better internals with more power
I'd say 7 is about right and is more than long enough. I mean, I personally didn't feel that Gen 7 started till the PS3 and Wii also came out
Well hopefully it won't have any exclusive games, like the paltry amount the New 3DS got :P
Too level-headed and reasonable for most gaming communities, unfortunately.
Only if both boxes are more iterative and completely backwards compatible.
If studios have to work with new architecture or make multigen versions of games the news of the new gen will leak in '19 anyways, so might as well announce in '19 and control the messaging.
Good read on all points.
Packaged software revenue and release count growing would be a great sign despite the increase in digital purchases.
I think we won't see PS5 and XB2 announced until 2020, similar to the PS4 and XB1 in 2013.
Seems fairly reasonable. (though I think the PS5 will be both announced and launched in 2019), except for one thing:
Software sales.
In a market (with PS4 and XB1 having a much larger base, which will obviously still be true through 2018) and year where at least in theory COD, NFL, God of War, Spider Man, NBA, Red Dead Redemption 2, Far Cry 5, Metro Exodus, and whatever shooter EA releases (maybe Anthem) and so many others....
How would you see that happening? (With what we know)
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Well I certainly see a fair amount of information being leaked at least a year before they're unveiled, even if the hardware is more iterative than unique, but I don't think it would necessarily be an issue for them. It wasn't for the PS4/XB1 and not even for the Switch, with what little was leaked prior to its unveiling. They were still able to dominate the conversation
Agree with most Mat predictions.
Some of those are easy to predict, for example is not that hard to imagine VR to struggle, as is the growth in sub services.
However, there are some interesing points. Switch success will be very important for 2018 new ideas, and some game performance will be fun to watch.
Also yes, 2018 will easy have over 16.8m consoles sold. In my predictions for the 2018 thread, i have a total of 16.25 million. 3DS alone will push total hardware over 17 million, then with legacy consoles and Nintendo mini consoles, there is no doubt this is gonna be a huge year.
Some of those are easy to predict, for example is not that hard to imagine VR to struggle, as is the growth in sub services.
However, there are some interesing points. Switch success will be very important for 2018 new ideas, and some game performance will be fun to watch.
Also yes, 2018 will easy have over 16.8m consoles sold. In my predictions for the 2018 thread, i have a total of 16.25 million. 3DS alone will push total hardware over 17 million, then with legacy consoles and Nintendo mini consoles, there is no doubt this is gonna be a huge year.
I seriously imagine everyone at Nintendo everyone morning just walking through hallways high five each other after huge news spills every week. Big congrats to them
Key phrase is "at retail."
It's why I keep harping on the point. There is more than enough room in the market for both packaged and digital software. These appeal to different markets, and having only one or the other only limits what can be achieved financially.
I totally agree on this point.
Having both options do help to increase revenue/sales for the publishers. However, at one point it could jeopardize retailers that do not benefit from this shift in consumming habits (digital, game pass, MTX ...). The recent decision of this austrian retailer shows that publishers and retailers need to agree on a better redistribution.
The growth of the industry cannot be made at the detriment of one of its key actor imo.
Thanks Mat, your thoughts definitely make sense. I was thinking on a later release around 2021 based on ps4 pro and xbox one x getting price cuts to make them more attractive for the mainstream market. Also, the start of this generation was kind of rocky for publishers too with them adapting to full HD games and later "kind of" 4K. I'm guessing than now everybody on the PS4 ecosystem is making a good profit. So no hurry to end a good thing, right?. 2018 looks pretty good for Sony, unless you have different data, I would bet on sales about as good as in 2017. And if they are able to keep up with the great first party support in 2019 and 2020, along with the guaranteed third party releases I can see them doing good with some kind of sales decline but still very good. They will probably have more room to be more aggresive with ps4 pro prices and VR has also room to grow.
If I were Sony, I will have already have some plans on what PS5 it's going to be like, but I would be flexible with the specific specs. I would wait on Microsoft to announce first as they are in the weaker position and then announce PS5 with an earlier release and better price (and make it BC). I think both consoles will still be traditional home consoles, retail is still a big part of the market specially in Japan.
What are your thoughts on Nintendo?. I think that they will progressively cut Switch price to make it more appealing to the current 3DS owners and they will release a "new Switch/Switch pro" iteration in 2019 at about the same price as current Switch. Maybe offer a wider variety of models with different storage capabilities (in a smartphone fashion) and increase customization (choose different colours for the joy-con and dock, themed SKU with certain games and so on). I think they will bet on a long lifecycle for the Switch keeping it alive with iterations and even if they release a Switch 2, it would not be disruptive but just the same thing with more power and some extra features (BC of course).
I can see Nintendo releasing a new home console around the same time as PS5 and Xbox two with similar specs to those and focused on 4K/HDR and Nintendo's proposal for VR. But I'm afraid that's more wistful thinking than anything.
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