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NPD February 2018: Monster Hunter World #1 SW, PS4 #1 HW
- Thread starter ZhugeEX
- Start date
I think people just assumed that he was making things up when his hardware prediction turned out incorrect.
I am happy to hear that the hysteria of this being the final generation of home consoles has been so thoroughly, and embarrassingly, debunked. Also, I am happy the naysayers have been proven wrong about MHW. Generally, naysayers being put into place has always been rewarding.
He may get votes, but my bet is that Smoak puts it together this year. Justin Smoak has always been a + defender, and has always shown flashes of brilliance with the bat. After a productive 2017 he seems to be approaching the plate with more confidence than ever. I think there is a real chance he puts it all together and grabs that MVP trophy. Late bloomers make for great stories...
He may get votes, but my bet is that Smoak puts it together this year. Justin Smoak has always been a + defender, and has always shown flashes of brilliance with the bat. After a productive 2017 he seems to be approaching the plate with more confidence than ever. I think there is a real chance he puts it all together and grabs that MVP trophy. Late bloomers make for great stories...
I'd be okay with Smoak doing that. Dude has certainly paid his dues. Would be a great story.
And true story on the "last gen of consoles" nonsense. Sad that so many believed it. They lost out on lots and lots of money by not having games ready earlier this cycle.
Seriously! As a kid I did full leagues of stratomatic baseball back when you had to track everything by hand. I updated stats like avg and era after every game for every player.. by hand. Once the computer versions of games came out I would print out hundreds of pages of stats looking for weird anomalies. This gig is verrrrry similar to that!!
And true story on the "last gen of consoles" nonsense. Sad that so many believed it. They lost out on lots and lots of money by not having games ready earlier this cycle.
Seriously! As a kid I did full leagues of stratomatic baseball back when you had to track everything by hand. I updated stats like avg and era after every game for every player.. by hand. Once the computer versions of games came out I would print out hundreds of pages of stats looking for weird anomalies. This gig is verrrrry similar to that!!
The Spider Man game rankings would be very interesting to see. I dont think the guy has had such a good history (at least recently) but I think the newer games got sub par reviews and meh marketing.
Yeah I'll get those. People forget that Spider-Man 2 was about as big a hit as existed when it released. Was a massive seller.
My man Joey Votto actually winning NL MVP by being one of the best year in and year out. It's a shock he hasn't won more.
Kinda reminds me of software sales for exclusives this year will surprise lol.
Dang, I know this is true but I'm a Reds homer man. No matter how much they suck lol.
I feel like PS4 has the momentum over the next couple months. I think it's anyone's game until September, but all of the big three will do well. Switch will most likely really start to pour it on this fall (when Online/and most likely Smash) and most likely take top selling platform of the year barring a significant price drop from the competition. The degree of Labo's success and whether or not Pokemon releases will also be huge factors.
Also a Reds fan and no lies detected. Votto is a great player and sadly stuck on some horrible teams.
Downside of being a datahead. I have a bit of a blind spot recognizing the next big thing. I can see how a market might be primed for a thing, but when I see a new kind of game I've always had a hard time deciding if it was going to be hot or not. I'd have other people in the org give me their takes and I'd forecast from there.
MatPiscatella Tropical Freeze on the Switch - do you think it'll outperform the Wii U release?
Game deserved so much more :(
Game deserved so much more :(
From what ive seen (which is a small sample size) Far Cry should easily be #1 and is a toss up between Kirby and MLB for #2 considering Kirby has had supply issues. Stuff like NBA and GTA should be high as well. Sea of Thieves should be out of the top 5 for sure.
Not mat, but I don't need to be an industry analyst to see it'll do better than wiiu.
Given what's been happening with similar titles, seems like a safe bet.
True.
Was just curious if maybe the price being higher than the original Wii U release combined with the fact that there doesn't seem to be much new about this particular port (besides Funky) compared to Mario Kart or Pokken would hold it back
I've never incorrectly predicted hardware results on Reset
And even if I were to get them "wrong" does Amazon just make up it's results when it differs from the NPD?
This is exactly why I will never provide hardware again :-)
They latch onto the one passing comment I made that I wouldn't be surprised if Xbox took February. When I actually never even made a February hardware prediction. They also leave out the part where I specifically also mentioned Switch not being overly strong compared to Xbox and PlayStation in the exact same thread. But I'm lying ya know. I just make this all up.
Amazon must also be full of people that make stuff up considering they had the lowest selling console as number 1 for the month of February. Maybe its actually one giant conspiracy and WE ALL ARE LIARS!
I guess people assume all retailers must have the same order but that shouldn't even be a thought with how close these consoles can be some months.
Either way the drama has mostly stopped since I've stopped talking about hardware, so that's about the best thing I could have ever done.
Most intelligent people who have been following this believe you, don't let a few bad apples sour your view of the rest of us;)
I don't, most people are awesome here that's why I still post. It's just way easier to avoid the drama that comes with hardware.
But let's just move on its all good.
Goal for March 2018 results for me is to avoid responding to all negative comments. Important step for me
I mostly lurk on these threads because people get way too heated on their console of choice and I don't want to be in the middle of that but I really appreciate your insight and I do hope you ignore those few.
I'm curious about retail marketing for Labo. I haven't really seen anything online outside of Nintendo's Twitter account and definitely no TV commercials, but some people have been reporting that in-store ads and displays are going up?
It's strange how little marketing overall there has been for it but I guess that might be due to Nintendo's expectations on the sales pattern. I bet they aren't planning on having it be front loaded.
It's strange how little marketing overall there has been for it but I guess that might be due to Nintendo's expectations on the sales pattern. I bet they aren't planning on having it be front loaded.
Yeah, that's probably the case. Still, I think it'll start ramping up soon anyway.
Most of us have this sort of issue too.
The common assumption is always more of the same and to map the past onto the future until something breaks up the paradigms and then becomes the new paradigm. I think it is a product, in our case, of low information and over-applying the limited information we do have, because that is all that is given to our intellect to play with. "Rules" being seen that aren't quite that, because that is where trying to intellectualize our interest leads us. Yeah there is a lot of throwing hands up in the air and admitting ignorance too, but ultimately these assumptions shape the way dialogue flows.
But here you are talking about having a lot of information and still having a similar problem, which makes me think this diagnosis is simplistic.
Makes me wonder how people who can see this sort of thing coming really well can do so; makes it seem independent in some way from information. Which tbh, makes sense given the shape of information.
Luck has a lot to do with it. Lots of game execs have a big hit, are deemed to have some kind of special ability, get big promotions, and then can never replicate it.
There are some visionaries, but these folks are the ones making the games, and many of them aren't known publicly.
There are some visionaries, but these folks are the ones making the games, and many of them aren't known publicly.
I think that is an interesting phenomenon that in some sense probably ultimately defies sophisticated attempts to understand even if sophistication in belief production can help us so much, generally speaking, and augments even this phenomenon :P.
Just wanted to apologize, I'm a little more sober now than when I posted that. I can see how my post might come off as a little snarky (?). Just meant to say that I feel all of the Wiiu ports will do better than the original releases.
I'm not smart enough to understand this. Can you dumb it down a bit?
No need for an apology! I wasn't bothered by your post at all
I rarely post, hence my username, I always feel like people misunderstand/misinterpret me and avoid posting. Alcohol removes my usual disposition of not commenting. Glad my comment wasn't taken the wrong way.
I'm just saying that I think, in general, applying scientific, mathematical, logical, etc. rigor to things does have positive results but doesn't necessarily achieve every answer we'd like to know.
As an example: consider all the great results that modern science has achieved despite many things remaining mysterious. I personally think that will always be the case even as we produce more and more great results and that in some sense the fullness of what we are reaching for is outside the grasp of our methods even though they seem to be grasping something, and something that is quite meaningful to our ends.
To bring this back to the case at hand, I'm sure market research helps make products successful, even revolutionary products successful, but at the same time doesn't figure out the shape of every possible successful product.
I'm not saying you were wrong per se. You just based your comment on what data you have.
Ahhhhhhh... okay cool. Yep. Data doesn't answer everything, and it certainly answers less in video games than many other areas.
I can explain about 35% of the variability in sales between games through use of available quant. That leaves 65% or so that cannot be explained.
We may find more data points that helps get us closer, but I imagine, for the most part, we'll never know what a game will sell until it launches.
A lot of people have tried to automate forecasting, mainly through mulivariate regression of one sort or another. Always fails. You can't quant games.
Those of us that are decent at this kind of gig can take available data and then apply the years of experience and knowledge gathering to make an informed attempt at making a forecast better. Ultimately, we'll still be wrong a lot, but we'll get closer than a computer or a quant from like CPG or something.
I can explain about 35% of the variability in sales between games through use of available quant. That leaves 65% or so that cannot be explained.
We may find more data points that helps get us closer, but I imagine, for the most part, we'll never know what a game will sell until it launches.
A lot of people have tried to automate forecasting, mainly through mulivariate regression of one sort or another. Always fails. You can't quant games.
Those of us that are decent at this kind of gig can take available data and then apply the years of experience and knowledge gathering to make an informed attempt at making a forecast better. Ultimately, we'll still be wrong a lot, but we'll get closer than a computer or a quant from like CPG or something.
You clearly have not followed Benji's posts closely nor when, where, for what and how often he was attacked by select posters, and so do not know what you are talking about.
When you do not really know a subject closely and it involves other posters (especially helpful ones like Benji that offer valuable insights) it is often better to not write anything than to write your hot take. You only make things worse.
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MatPiscatella Will NPD be tracking the different LABO kits separately or will you track them together in one monolithic LABO item?
putting them together would be senseless. they are games, not console families.
So, what's the purpose of your condescending post? To make things better?
Here let me help ya out then. It's dinosaurs. Dinosaurs are the next big thing in games. I'm going to will it into in existence... please... I've been so patient ... T_T
