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NPD June 2018 : PS4 Top Selling Current Gen HW, NES #1, PS4, Xbox, Switch Up YoY

jroc74

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,139
That Mindstorms comp idea is interesting. I'm going to look into that. We track the Toys category within NPD Entertainment. Thanks for the idea.

Refresh ratios are fairly similar.

I'm forecasting ps5/NeXt in 2020, refreshes I have coming on a 2-3 year cycle. Pending any market disruption that changes things. Which tends to always happen.
This is interesting. I feel if the One X was cheaper it would have a higher ratio. It still might, but probably much higher.

But a cheaper One X probably wouldn't have the same specs. Interesting strategy from both Sony and MS with the mid gen refreshes.

If I was MS, I would stop doing so many XBO deals. Just focus on profits, this gen is over. Or only do deals on the One X. No matter what they do, the Switch might pass the XBO total sales before the next Xbox comes out. They are going to have to just deal with it.
 
Nov 2, 2017
2,361
Italy
Well now that i think about that, it is true XB1 had a lot of deals in June, but at the same time last year there wasn't XB1X model which is way more expensive... i think XB1 actual increase in units is less impressive, but at the same time those are good numbers anyway.
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,265
This is interesting. I feel if the One X was cheaper it would have a higher ratio. It still might, but probably much higher.

But a cheaper One X probably wouldn't have the same specs. Interesting strategy from both Sony and MS with the mid gen refreshes.

If I was MS, I would stop doing so many XBO deals. Just focus on profits, this gen is over. Or only do deals on the One X. No matter what they do, the Switch might pass the XBO total sales before the next Xbox comes out. They are going to have to just deal with it.
You do know that these companies make tons of money selling software, services and digital transactions. The boxes are just a means to get into the home. So focusing on profits on these boxes isn’t the right way to go. Not when there’s much more to be gained from services and software
 

Pablo Mesa

Banned
Nov 23, 2017
6,878
I'm a customer. So yes it is for me to decide, and myself and many others have decided against it.

And you should know very well how Nintendo thinks every thing they make is too valuable and Jack up the price to nonsensical numbers, no matter how shitty they are (1-2 switch and labo).
Doesnt matter as individuals but what the majority does.
And again going by that retailers have nit liquidated stock or pull price cuts (see gundam game example)
I wonder how far it goes the narrative that labp is not rotating
 

Sense

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,608
My local target has been out of pro for like three weeks now. Weird. Maybe a new model plus the Spider-Man pro bundle are the next big shipments
 

J-Skee

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,300
Is there a breakdown of sales for Monster Hunter: World? I know it sold over 8 million worldwide, but what's the split between Xbox One & PS4?
 

Slam Tilt

Member
Jan 16, 2018
5,574
Their basic world view is - third party games don't sell well on Nintendo platforms. Game x that wouldn't have done well given the circumstances on any platform = proof this is the case on the Switch as well. Any game y doing well = there are reasons it did well and they do not apply to 3rd party games generally...
It looks to me like it's all part of a broader pattern to marginalize Nintendo's successes. Every time a Nintendo system does well, there's always caveats attached to it so third-party developers don't have to support it they way they support successful non-Nintendo consoles.
 

ethomaz

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,851
Santa Albertina
The Xbox One is doing phenomenal numbers this year. PS4 is just doing more phenomenally. This year's market isn't some doing good some doing bad. It's only different magnitudes of good.
Dammint... when I ran faster my competition ran even more faster :P

Refresh ratios are fairly similar.
That is interesting... I guessed XB1 was a more desired console than Pro for its respective userbase.
Now you saying the ratio are fairly similar means Pro sells more units than X (that was something I always have doubts).

Thanks.
 
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Maxime

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,021
Super happy to see Vampyr doing good numbers (especially since all ResetEra's experts were claiming the game to be DOA :p)! I hope Focus will continue this trend of 10-15 million AA games.
 

Cinemikel

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,433
So I guess Octopath did pretty well in July, may not reflect harsh on NPD due to missing digital, but it seems to have sold pretty well decently fast for what the game is. Probably already made back its budget in development, marketing and then some!

MatPiscatella What are your thoughts on Octopath Traveler? I know you cant go into detail because it's July, but I wanted to reflect on a market's perception of a game's value through graphics. A lot of debate came from whether or not people thought the game was worth $60 simply due to the visuals of a game. Has that actually occurred for any game, even if the game was considered overall good? Could you go into that discussion as a whole? I'm sure you can probably find a pattern between games that you believe was rejected by consumers due to being overpriced.

What made Octopath overcome the (dumb) debate of value because it came off to some people as a lower budget pixel game vs other games that underperformed because the public rejected something as "overpriced"? A lot of people say Sushi Striker was overpriced, but not really for the visuals. More because it seems the general market do not wish to pay $50 for a puzzle game
 

skittzo0413

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,549
So I guess Octopath did pretty well in July, may not reflect harsh on NPD due to missing digital, but it seems to have sold pretty well decently fast for what the game is. Probably already made back its budget in development, marketing and then some!

MatPiscatella What are your thoughts on Octopath Traveler? I know you cant go into detail because it's July, but I wanted to reflect on a market's perception of a game's value through graphics. A lot of debate came from whether or not people thought the game was worth $60 simply due to the visuals of a game. Has that actually occurred for any game, even if the game was considered overall good? Could you go into that discussion as a whole? I'm sure you can probably find a pattern between games that you believe was rejected by consumers due to being overpriced.

What made Octopath overcome the (dumb) debate of value because it came off to some people as a lower budget pixel game vs other games that underperformed because the public rejected something as "overpriced"? A lot of people say Sushi Striker was overpriced, but not really for the visuals. More because it seems the general market do not wish to pay $50 for a puzzle game
I think the SNES JRPG nostalgia probably balanced out the "overpriced" arguments when it comes to the visuals.

As the NES Classic has proved this month, nostalgia is a hell of a drug.
 

Terraforce

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
9,145
I should clarify to mean "consoles". Even if Uncharted is at 10 mill, Mario Odyssey is already well past that at 11.3 mill in just 7 months.
Tbf God of War is outpacing Uncharted 4 by a lot. Probably still behind Odyssey's pace, but probably close based on its month to month performance.

On Sushi Striker back in May:


Well I’m not shocked. ;)
Wow not even on its own console?? That's crazy. The game has its flaws, but definitely deserves more than this.
 

LegendofLex

Member
Nov 20, 2017
3,083
So I guess Octopath did pretty well in July, may not reflect harsh on NPD due to missing digital, but it seems to have sold pretty well decently fast for what the game is. Probably already made back its budget in development, marketing and then some!

MatPiscatella What are your thoughts on Octopath Traveler? I know you cant go into detail because it's July, but I wanted to reflect on a market's perception of a game's value through graphics. A lot of debate came from whether or not people thought the game was worth $60 simply due to the visuals of a game. Has that actually occurred for any game, even if the game was considered overall good? Could you go into that discussion as a whole? I'm sure you can probably find a pattern between games that you believe was rejected by consumers due to being overpriced.

What made Octopath overcome the (dumb) debate of value because it came off to some people as a lower budget pixel game vs other games that underperformed because the public rejected something as "overpriced"? A lot of people say Sushi Striker was overpriced, but not really for the visuals. More because it seems the general market do not wish to pay $50 for a puzzle game
I'm obviously not Mat, but I have a few hunches about this.

I think people tend to make too big a deal out of the relationship between production value (2D vs. realistic HD) and price tag. I don't think most people care. They're happy to buy games with pixel art if they expect the right level of quality out of those games. They're happy to pay full price if they think the game is compelling.

That said, the amount of quality they expect often comes down to how these games are conceptualized, stylized, and marketed. Do they seem like low-rate projects pandering to a niche? Or do they seem like the kinds of beloved, best-selling 2D games we got 25+ years ago, which fell out of vogue with big publishers during the rise of 3D/HD graphics and cinematic storytelling? As we see with NES and SNES Classic, people en masse never really stopped loving NES and SNES games - it's more that publishers by and large moved on from those types of games. So games that really seem to dip into that untapped well are bound to do well, but that doesn't guarantee that every classic JRPG-style game will do well.

While you can clearly see the DNA connecting Bravely Default and Octopath Traveler if you're familiar with both games, I think Octopath's incredible success comes down to those sorts of differences in perception. From the get go, people were drawing comparisons between Octopath and Final Fantasy VI - I don't remember seeing favorable comparisons on that level for Bravely Default.

I also don't really think Sushi Striker sold poorly because it was a $50 puzzle game. I think it sold poorly because it was a game that most people didn't really end up wanting or caring about.
 

Johnny956

Member
Oct 25, 2017
342
My local target has been out of pro for like three weeks now. Weird. Maybe a new model plus the Spider-Man pro bundle are the next big shipments

Wonder if the Pro is undergoing a small model revision and Sony was thinking they would have enough stock in the summer when sales are slower. Just showerthoughts as it seems strange being out of stock randomly in summer at many places
 

DeuceGamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,540
I know this is NPD but with 3DS still trucking along slowly what’s the chances it limps to 80m WW? Think it’s most likely to end up between 75-80m but interested if others think it has a chance.

Note: According to Nintendo Q1 2018 financial report 3DS is currently at 72.89m units.
 

Arkaign

Member
Nov 25, 2017
1,552
You do know that these companies make tons of money selling software, services and digital transactions. The boxes are just a means to get into the home. So focusing on profits on these boxes isn’t the right way to go. Not when there’s much more to be gained from services and software
This is exactly why I think both Sony and Nintendo (and MS with an official X1S rev 2 super slim maybe with new process tech 12 or 7nm) should target $199 or less entry as official MSRP as soon as logically possible.

As seen last BF, the sales potential is massive for this price point, and people that are price sensitive to having a spare $300 laying around are less sensitive towards picking up a game, a controller, etc several times a year or more along with online subs by month or 3 month, etc.

This Gen has seen a really really long run without an official sub $200 standard price. Xbox would be the most probable to get there first. I think a 5.5" Switch Mini at $199 would sell like absolute madness, DS levels probably over the time and price/bundle options. Dongle instead of dock, integrated dpad and controls, kickstand, still compatible with wireless joycons purchased separately. I'm pretty certain this is the future of switch per se, with the OG serving as 'Switch XL' so to speak comparing the lineup to *DS stuff.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,432
I know this is NPD but with 3DS still trucking along slowly what’s the chances it limps to 80m WW? Think it’s most likely to end up between 75-80m but interested if others think it has a chance.

Note: According to Nintendo Q1 2018 financial report 3DS is currently at 72.89m units.
can't do it imo.
it was only 300k+ this quarter, can't find the exact number at the moment.
 

OrbitalBeard

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,193
I know this is NPD but with 3DS still trucking along slowly what’s the chances it limps to 80m WW? Think it’s most likely to end up between 75-80m but interested if others think it has a chance.

Note: According to Nintendo Q1 2018 financial report 3DS is currently at 72.89m units.
It's pretty much impossible, barring a breakout 3DS hit no one sees coming.
 

DeuceGamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,540
I think it will limp past 75m with the holidays upcoming. I’m expecting some decent deals this holiday, but I agre I can’t see it reach 80m, though I’d be happy to be wrong.
 
Nov 2, 2017
2,361
Italy
3DS will definitively surpass 75 million lifetime, kinda like Switch it was severely undershipped last quarter, and should have a way better 2018.

80 million tho, eeeeeeeeeeeeeeh..... that's really unlucky.
 

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
11,997
This is interesting, but with the alignment of launches, I'm not sure how relevant. For the majority of these machines, the second June would also be after the second Holiday season, which usually means either A) stronger sales due to being a hit or B) weaker sales as the system fails to find a market. Of those, I think only 3DS was a March initial release?
PSP was as well.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,466
The Netherlands
I know this is NPD but with 3DS still trucking along slowly what’s the chances it limps to 80m WW? Think it’s most likely to end up between 75-80m but interested if others think it has a chance.

Note: According to Nintendo Q1 2018 financial report 3DS is currently at 72.89m units.
US market seems to skew perception: worldwide, the system only shipped 0.36M this quarter, down 62% YOY. It'll probably hit 75M at some point, but 80M seems completely out of reach.
 

Tron1

Member
Dec 23, 2017
5,248
Any hard numbers for Mario tennis? Would like to know wolfenstine switch also. I just don’t see those ports continuing.
 

Nocturnal

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,301
Did we get any sort of comment if Mario Tennis Aces is the 4th best launch on the Switch behind Zelda, MK8D and SMO.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,466
The Netherlands
Really? Do we have any legit numbers from them? Indies are throwing out numbers left and right do we have any hard numbers for major AAA third parties?
We don't, but Bethesda said their games did well, well enough to show that there was a market for their games on the Switch. Nothing in that statement can be read differently than that their games performed well.

Edit: Source
 
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DeuceGamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,540
3DS will definitively surpass 75 million lifetime, kinda like Switch it was severely undershipped last quarter, and should have a way better 2018.

80 million tho, eeeeeeeeeeeeeeh..... that's really unlucky.
I wonder what type of deals they plan on having for this upcoming holiday. Should be a big help for it to cross 75m.

US market seems to skew perception: worldwide, the system only shipped 0.36M this quarter, down 62% YOY. It'll probably hit 75M at some point, but 80M seems completely out of reach.
Yea, it’s definitely having a hard time outside the US. Japan especially seems to have tanked, but I guess that’s expected with the Switch and market saturation.

Edit: thanks to both for the thoughts!
 

test_account

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,085
Apparently Switch is a secondary platform for so many people. That is, until its software starts selling well. Then all of a sudden all of its owners only own one system, so of course these games on the tumbelweed-laden Switch are selling well!
The sad thing is I see this type of logic also from a few people who are supposedly higher up on the food chain, at least on this site, and so I think it is possibly a wide spread thing at least in certain circles in the (Western) industry.
Are you sure that its the same people who claim the same thing, and that its an all or nothing situation? (either every owner has it has a secondary system, or either every owner only owns a Switch). From my understanding, the main arguement about being a secondary system is that people mainly buy first party games on it, while getting multiplatform games elsewhere. Another arguement is that people say developers are leaving money on the table for not supporting the Switch, does this mean that they're arguing that all the Switch owners only owns a Switch? Otherwise they could just get the games elsewhere if they own other systems as well (multiplatform titles).

But regardless, the main reason why games sell well is because they are good. Competition matters, games can be overshadowed by other games, but bigger titles at least will probably find a way to sell if they're really good.
 
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v_iHuGi

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
5,155
I know this is NPD but with 3DS still trucking along slowly what’s the chances it limps to 80m WW? Think it’s most likely to end up between 75-80m but interested if others think it has a chance.

Note: According to Nintendo Q1 2018 financial report 3DS is currently at 72.89m units.
Nah, it'll probably settle somewhere around 75/76M.

Nintendo Financials showed Console is in it's last legs.
 

Pablo Mesa

Banned
Nov 23, 2017
6,878
I just don’t see those ports continuing.
so far Skyrim and Doom did well, and WII "flopped" in all account in the other ports. too so we dont know Bethesda actual expectations

Really? Do we have any legit numbers from them? Indies are throwing out numbers left and right do we have any hard numbers for major AAA third parties?
Indies like to give out Number, AAA dont, is not a conspiracy or that someone hide AAA numbers in shame, is just how the publishers work

Yeah that’s one way to look at it.
Ill Love to know how would be another way to read that then.
 

TazKa

Member
Oct 27, 2017
274
That Mindstorms comp idea is interesting. I'm going to look into that. We track the Toys category within NPD Entertainment. Thanks for the idea.

Refresh ratios are fairly similar.

I'm forecasting ps5/NeXt in 2020, refreshes I have coming on a 2-3 year cycle. Pending any market disruption that changes things. Which tends to always happen.
Thanks and ratios of both refreshes are close is interesting. :)
 

Pooroomoo

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,043
Is there another way ?
Honest question
Another way to look at it (not mine...) - if a third party say they are happy with sales on the Switch (or any Nintendo system for that matter), they are lying.

From what I've noticed, ironically the same people that think this way (with some exceptions) also consider anything that can even remotely be considered negative (including anonymous reports, especially those actually) as the absolute truth, and then go on and generalize it to be the absolute truth for all games for the console in question ...

Just something I observed.
 

Pooroomoo

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,043
Are you sure that its the same people who claim the same thing, and that its an all or nothing situation? (either every owner has it has a secondary system, or either every owner only owns a Switch). From my understanding, the main arguement about being a secondary system is that people mainly buy first party games on it, while getting multiplatform games elsewhere. Another arguement is that people say developers are leaving money on the table for not supporting the Switch, does this mean that they're arguing that all the Switch owners only owns a Switch? Otherwise they could just get the games elsewhere if they own other systems as well (multiplatform titles).

But regardless, the main reason why games sell well is because they are good. Competition matters, games can be overshadowed by other games, but bigger titles at least will probably find a way to sell if they're really good.
It may not have been clear from my post, but what I was referring to was the type of convoluted logic, not the argument itself. I was actually thinking of a few "higher up" people who I specifically saw say "3rd party games won't sell on Nintendo systems", and then go on and use any remote example (that really shouldn't be used) to show it is the same story on Switch, while games that prove otherwise "don't count"for different reasons.
Personally I believe that Switch is not your typical Nintendo system in that regard, and its audience is quite different in most countries from past systems.
 

Omnistalgic

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,490
NJ
That Mindstorms comp idea is interesting. I'm going to look into that. We track the Toys category within NPD Entertainment. Thanks for the idea.

Refresh ratios are fairly similar.

I'm forecasting ps5/NeXt in 2020, refreshes I have coming on a 2-3 year cycle. Pending any market disruption that changes things. Which tends to always happen.
Everyone likes 2020, but you think a software disruption could cause a delay as well? Or just a new player into the industry?

Also tsk for the Apple link buddy above who I can't @ with the Japanese tiles in their name. lol

Also, I've noticed a trend of XB1 getting a lot more praise on Reset lately and even coming from the NPD guys. Personally, the only thing appealing about it is build quality, Forza/Ori and the controller, it's still a hard sale for me at $500 or $450. Not trying to derail or anything, just wondering if future outlook looking better actually builds brand awareness outside of the enthusiast bubble? Also, are a lot of these XB1X buyers PS owners also getting new consoles towards the end of the gen? I'm thinking about jumping into a next Xbox, particularly with Halo Infinite release, but its still a hard purchase as Pro owner this late in the generation. Switch was much easier as they don't feel at all redundant like PS/XBox does. Thoughts?
 
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Boiled Goose

Member
Nov 2, 2017
9,273
Really? Do we have any legit numbers from them? Indies are throwing out numbers left and right do we have any hard numbers for major AAA third parties?
Skyrim was in the top 10 switch selling games as late as May NPD.
Doom made to the top 10 switch games as late as January 2018.
Both have had or still have presence in eShop top sellers.
Skyrim still top 12 or so on Amazon best sellers for Switch.
Bethesda expressed satisfaction with sales.
Both Doom and Skyrim are still basically full price.


Do you have any reason to believe they DIDN'T do well? Or are you just assuming based on what exactly?

The only major third party games released for Switch are mario rabbids and octopath. Both sold over a million. Not sure they even count as AAA.