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NPD June 2019: Super Mario Maker #1, Crash Team Racing #2, Switch #1 HW
- Thread starter Deleted member 278
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Absolutely.
And Switch will still outsell at least one of them next holiday
There is just no way how PS5 or Scarlett could outsell Switch in 2020. For that they must have unprecedent sales in launch month and Switch sales must fall of a cliff simultaneously.
I don't even think that both new consoles will even reach PS4/XOne launch numbers. After the long PS360 life time many gamers really wanted a new console and the price, especially for the PS4, was reasonable. A expensive PS5 will not get that much interested for launch.
I don't even think that both new consoles will even reach PS4/XOne launch numbers. After the long PS360 life time many gamers really wanted a new console and the price, especially for the PS4, was reasonable. A expensive PS5 will not get that much interested for launch.
A $500 Xbox sold over a million, I'm sure they will do the same if not more.
I fully expect at least the ps5 yo outsell switch right out of the gate and continue to do so for pretty much every month afterwards
PS4 and PS3 will have been on the market for an equal amount of time before their successor launches, assuming PS5 is fall 2020.
I believe there's a chance BOTW 2 launches around the time PS5 and Scarlett launch. Would definitely be interesting to see the results if it happens. Not to mention the guaranteed Pokemon release.
I think you are either overestimating what a console sell in its first year or underestimating the numbers the Switch could do in 2021.
Switch will start the full next year with the Lite and regular setup in addition to having a much bigger Q1 title with Animal Crossing.
I dont know what data some of you are refering to when expecting the Switch numbers to go down in a big way next year - the opposite is more likely with everything in place.
For the most part of the year Switch was an expensive system with no price drop and revision introduced. This is the first time ever that a Nintendo system is outselling the competion without being much cheaper ( see Wii v. PS360).
The same way the regular Switch now looks more attractive because of the battery life bump and what it offer compared to the Switch Lite - the same way the Switch as a system will look more attractive to the public eye once these new systems are introduced. When the family is able to get like 2-3 Switches for the price of one next-gen console, the purchase decision might not be as obvious.
More importantly though - the Switch will cement its place as the favorite pick as the second system. Only the most hardcore players will afford Xbox and PS5, or would want to be heavenly invested in both eco-systems. Switch, in whatever form Lite or regular, is the perfect additional system many players who main on one PS/Xbox/PC.
The only thing left for Nintendo to do is to team up with partner to deliver a attractive Cloud Gaming solution for there that wont have negative effect on their core-business while allowing them to have access to next-gen only games via streaming.
Once this is setup they can keep the base Switch around for who knows how many years and go "all out" with a Switch 2/Pro in a couple of years.
I might be wrong, but we will see. The market was perfect for PS4/One launches - Nintendo completly failed with the WiiU and wasnt a factor + the demand for new consoles that could deliver 1080p gaming as a base line was high.
This time its a bit different with PS4/One still being quite viable, Nintendo being really strong while Switch mobile and cloud gaming might result in a change of how players are consuming content. MS is already preparing for a future where there console and Xbox sales might not be as important to their gaming business.
Who knows how things will shake up but i dont see the market being strong enough to deliver record breaking sales in the first year for two new systems launching at 500 bucks.
BotW wont stop selling just because a sequel is released.
Quite the opposite, especially if Nintendo decides to drop the price of their early gen evergreens.
I dont know what data some of you are refering to when expecting the Switch numbers to go down in a big way next year - the opposite is more likely with everything in place.
For the most part of the year Switch was an expensive system with no price drop and revision introduced. This is the first time ever that a Nintendo system is outselling the competion without being much cheaper ( see Wii v. PS360).
The same way the regular Switch now looks more attractive because of the battery life bump and what it offer compared to the Switch Lite - the same way the Switch as a system will look more attractive to the public eye once these new systems are introduced. When the family is able to get like 2-3 Switches for the price of one next-gen console, the purchase decision might not be as obvious.
More importantly though - the Switch will cement its place as the favorite pick as the second system. Only the most hardcore players will afford Xbox and PS5, or would want to be heavenly invested in both eco-systems. Switch, in whatever form Lite or regular, is the perfect additional system many players who main on one PS/Xbox/PC.
The only thing left for Nintendo to do is to team up with partner to deliver a attractive Cloud Gaming solution for there that wont have negative effect on their core-business while allowing them to have access to next-gen only games via streaming.
Once this is setup they can keep the base Switch around for who knows how many years and go "all out" with a Switch 2/Pro in a couple of years.
This generation had the PS4 Pro and One X midgen upgrades to satisfy the demand - i dont think people that are playing current gen games in 2K/4K already are as thirsty for a new set of 500USD consoles as it was from PS360 to PS4.
I might be wrong, but we will see. The market was perfect for PS4/One launches - Nintendo completly failed with the WiiU and wasnt a factor + the demand for new consoles that could deliver 1080p gaming as a base line was high.
This time its a bit different with PS4/One still being quite viable, Nintendo being really strong while Switch mobile and cloud gaming might result in a change of how players are consuming content. MS is already preparing for a future where there console and Xbox sales might not be as important to their gaming business.
Who knows how things will shake up but i dont see the market being strong enough to deliver record breaking sales in the first year for two new systems launching at 500 bucks.
BotW wont stop selling just because a sequel is released.
Quite the opposite, especially if Nintendo decides to drop the price of their early gen evergreens.
Yeah, I also see Nintendo has plan to release BotW 2 at end of next year alongside Switch Deluxe/Pro.
weird statement, since I didn't say the first part and the 2nd part doesn't apply. If Botw got a big price drop Mario would.
anyway, nsw Zelda is at 12.77m as of 3/31. Odyssey is at 14.44. A difference of 1.67 million.
Last FY Zelda sold 4.3m compared to Odyssey's 4.04 million. That's a a 0.26 million difference.
At that current pace it'd take
6.42 years from now for it to overtake. Sales of both would presumably slow down when the next hardware released though.
Now The other factors of course is bundles, pricing, and sequels.
What we know so far is that BOTW has a sequel announced. Obivously that wouldn't kill BOTW1 sales, but it'd decrease them a little.
The same thing can happen to Mario. I think Odyssey 2 for sure will come. So when that comes it can affect sales.
And then which games get bundled will play a huge role.
But going on the information we have now, this is how it looks
I was only commenting on the idea that BotW-sequel would result in the first game selling - i dont think thats going to happen.
Dont know if BotW will outsell SMO when its said and done -both are great games and the best selling games of their respective (sub)series so it doesnt really matter.
yeah it's going to sell for NSW's entire life. Even though it has a sequel announced, it's not impossible Odysssey 2 will hit before BOTW 2. So that'd be interesting as well.
I don't know if it will either. I've heard it said a lot so I gave my thoughts. I mean, my exact quote was just:
"about the previous conversation, I don't think BOTW NSW will overtake Odyssey WW.
Especially if BOTW2 hits before Odyssey 2 "
It wasn't a big declaration.
but
Christo750
did note that Odyssey is dropping more than Zelda in JP, NPD.
So if NSW Zelda can close the gap quicker, before BOTW2 comes out, who knows.
However, a 200 dollar switch and Odyssey (which sells better at Christmas usually) could be an interesting twist though.
It's all just speculation
Actually, could that do the opposite and convince more people to check out the original before the sequel hits?
for the month it releases yea I think BOTW1 would get a bump, like we see with the old pokemon each year. but afterwards it'd trail off.
Last quarter, BotW shipped 1.09m to Odyssey's 0.68m. We'll get this latest quarter update at the end of the month, but we're seeing a similar pattern everywhere...Japan, US, Europe and all their respective eshops... Zelda is holding strong while Oddyssey is fading. Unless something changes, I see BotW closing the gap by next March.
A $500 console is not going to outsell a $200-$300 Switch, especially while it's releasing mainline Pokemon and Animal Crossing games.
PS4 will still be an attractive platform for at least a year, maybe even 2, and it will take some time for publishers (inculding Sony) to drop previous gen platforms and fully focus on PS5/Scarlett.
PS4 will still be an attractive platform for at least a year, maybe even 2, and it will take some time for publishers (inculding Sony) to drop previous gen platforms and fully focus on PS5/Scarlett.
I think you're underestimating the effect of the PS5's $500+ price versus Nintendo's more affordable $200 Switch Mini. Revenue the PS5 can win, but hardware units are a tougher fight.
yea, zelda is definitely closing the gap the way things are trending. With odyssey fading, BOTW is making up ground
but again, the big question is the holiday season.
Zelda sells more in every quarter. Then Mario gets a slight bit back at Christmas.
in Q3 Odyssey sold 1.59m to Zelda's 1.4m.
so 0.19m more.
the question will be if switch lite affects Odyssey sales more during Christmas.
if one game gets a big price drop
and of course, if either gets bundled.
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well, if i am remembering correctly, people were saying that switch will easily take every month from now on until next gen starts. i only begged to differ.
That sounds about right. The PS4 is in decline at this point and I don't think price drops will do much to change that meanwhile this year and next should be close to or at the Switch's peak
Oh...I don't think it's gonna outsell the Switch again but it still has alot of shelve life left.
Plus there are plenty of people who will want to get a Switch and check out BOTW before the sequel. I think worldwide it passes it. And all these kids getting Switches and Mario May eventually give BOTW a shot once they grow into the open world experiences.
Kind of an elephant in the room when no digital sales are counted for Call of Duty and The Division 2 on PC.
No digital sales for Minecraft on PS4 and Xbox are interesting as well, could be way higher with all sales counted, this should be a game the majority buys digitally.
No digital sales for Minecraft on PS4 and Xbox are interesting as well, could be way higher with all sales counted, this should be a game the majority buys digitally.
According to Benji MUA3 has had a very impressive first 48 hours, after poor preorders. He seems to think it could be the third biggest launch of the year so far for Switch, behind NSMBUDX and SMM2.
Nice! I was expecting an underperformance at 1-2 million units based on low pre-sales. Maybe the SDCC hype helped
That's good news. It's good from what I've played so far. Not really the sort of game I'd have expected to enjoy but it has a lot of charm.
I'll pick it up very soon, but I'm glad. I loved the first 2 entries and never expected a third, so I hope it succeeds (and is good first and foremost).
Behind NSMBUDX but ahead of the rest would be solid, assuming it isn't far behind the former.
Wow even better than Yoshi? I'm assuming Fire Emblem gonna go crazy next weekend.
Yeah I'm surprised NSMBU Deluxe and BOTW are still in the top 20 but Mario Odyssey isn't.
Yeah from what I've seen yoshi should be ahead and fire emblem should out do it
Which guns should that be? Only way this would happen if these guns shoot the 500$ price in half.
PS5 will likely be priced higher than PS4 at launch, and PS4 had the advantage that people desperately wanted new hardware after an "endless" PS3/Wii/XBox360 gen and that Microsoft and Nintendo shoot themselves in the foot with XBox marketing and WiiU.
So even if the PS5 would be launch at the same price the PS4 launched, it will probably sell less the first year.
I'm not sure why the urge to buy the newest hottest piece of tech is somehow diminissed going into next gen. People have been clamoring for a new Switch model and the current one isn't even losing steam. I'd argue Sony is in a much much stronger position on all fronts going into next gen than they were coming into this one so if they capitalize on the fact then yes, I think they can do as good as the PS4 even with a higher price tag.
Even if the PS5 sells as much in its first year as the PS4 did, I'm not sure why that'll allow it to overtake the Switch immediately, unless the Switch's sales fall off hard, which, considering that it's sales are only picking up, despite not having had a single price drop, makes it rather unlikely
Sony came in from PS2 much stronger, doesn't exactly helped PS3 sales...
There has been already described several reasons why it is highly unlikely that the PS5 will reach PS4 sales numbers in the first year, even with the same launch price as PS4. With a higher price its impossible. On the other hand the Switch sales are high flying.
Anyway there are not that many people the urges constantly for the "hottest piece of tech" and some of those will perhaps prefer a PC or at that time the XBox will be even "hotter" in their eyes than the PS5.