-
Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
-
We have made minor adjustments to how the search bar works on ResetEra. You can read about the changes here.
NPD June 2019: Super Mario Maker #1, Crash Team Racing #2, Switch #1 HW
- Thread starter Deleted member 278
- Start date
A lot of it depends on what games each company is able to get out on their respective systems. The price gulf is also going to be incredibly stark: the Switch Lite could hit $150 at some point two years from now, while the PS5 will of course be staying at its launch price ($500?).
Nintendo's 2021 could very realistically be expected to have the Breath of the Wild sequel and a major Pokemon release (probably not a new generation, but at least a third version/sequel or remake). If the next 3D Mario doesn't release opposite the new launches in 2020, that can also easily be expected to show up in 2021. The potential for what else could be coming is up in the air, but by that time your Mario Kart 9's, Splatoon 3's, whatever is next for 2D Mario, Monolith's game, etc would all be considered "due," or at least whatever has been worked on by those teams.
If Sony has the more standard sparse first-year release schedule expected of a new console and Nintendo focuses enough Aces during the same time period, coupled with a potentially $300 or more price difference for entry, I could easily see the Switch outselling the PS5 for the year.
Nostalgia's a hell of a drug.
Haven't played CTR yet but I recently bought the Crash Trilogy and it's uh...average at best. Subjective opinion and what what, of course.
My bad, I assumed the subject was NPD.
I looked at the convo, where was WW mentioned? Comic Obsessed didn't mention anything, so I assumed he meant NPD
I mean you didn't lie, but at the same time...
But that's a (supposedly) mediocre game that will wind up selling significantly less than the 100 versions previous entry. Kind of proving his point
Yeah I dont see where it was bought up worldwide or why we would be dicussing worldwide in an NPD thread?
You're right, though. The trilogy is kinda meh. Nostalgia is powerful.
CTR is fantastic (best Crash game).
Oh yeah, definitely picking it up when it hits $20, like I did with the Trilogy.
Yeah, I always assume that unless specified NPD is being talked about (if it's in a NPD thread obviously).
If we're talking WW then it's easy to see Switch outselling Scarlett in 2021 since the Xbox is so anemic in most of the world.
à propos 200.
people saying that there's no sales life in ps4 any more ignore the still possible wildcard of a price cut. sony was very strict with discounts so far, and like a mother, who rarely gives out candy to their children, suddenly throwing a heavy dose of sugar-coated delight into the ring for the holiday season might lead to some outbursts of hyperactivity among the breed.
Of course, ps4 at tht price point would also be a steal and sell alot. Ps4 is at its end of life per se in terms of the generation and new Playstation the horizon so Sony probably will drop it down or make a cheaper slim.
Who is saying that lol ?
PS4 is yet to reach its final form - as in a even slimmer version at 200 bucks.
No no, I said it as a compliment. In spanish we use sometimes "brutal" as "amazing" "incredible" etc. I'm sure Crash did fantastic, so that makes Mario Maker's 1st place (considering single console, less time, no digital) even more impressive.
Im sorry for the confusion.
Those games are equal to the scope of gta/rdr/cyberpunk/ hell even witcher 3?
99.9% of the game out there dont have the scope of RDR or GTA - this doesnt prove the point lol.
Acting like once in a generation games like RDR2 are the norm for 3rdParty multiplattform is ridiculous.
As for the debate for PS5 vs Switch, 2020 will obviously be taken by the Switch. The Lite will ensure that along with a strong lineup and the PS5 probably coming out in November 2020.
For 2021, hard to say that far out with so many variables, my gut says that the Switch will win in units and the PS5 will win in revenue (and it will retail around $500). The Switch will have to sell somewhere between 1.5x to 2.5x to outstrip via revenue. Xbox will probably beat it in revenue too. Those consoles gonna cost a pretty penny. A Switch Pro won't cost any more than $350, so I don't know if that would help.
For 2021, hard to say that far out with so many variables, my gut says that the Switch will win in units and the PS5 will win in revenue (and it will retail around $500). The Switch will have to sell somewhere between 1.5x to 2.5x to outstrip via revenue. Xbox will probably beat it in revenue too. Those consoles gonna cost a pretty penny. A Switch Pro won't cost any more than $350, so I don't know if that would help.
A weird prediction - unless you are NPD, why would you care about a system performing better in terms of revenue ?
Not really - people are realistic.
The consoles will be expensive and the list of exclusives limited early on.
Prime console numbers during the first year is unlikely.
Me. I buy a new copy every day to keep the numbers up.
Rockstar should give me a prize.
Another copy of GTAV would be great.
3rd party sells Xbox and PS. Exclusives are more a compliment. You can bet the newest 3rd party games built for these new consoles will push units. I don't think they will have to be in their prime to outdo Switch either.
I'm just talking about the launch month btw. The year is more murky.
Whatever the price of PS5 ($399 or $499), they'll sell every consoles available during the first months.
Likelihood of Sony or MS shipping enough consoles in the fall - assuming a November launch - to outsell the Switch/Nintendo during the Holidays is next to zero.
Lots of variables missing but i think your are downplaying the sales level Switch will achieve once the Lite version has been released.
Switch had a lackluster lineup last year until the near end, no price drops and pretty much every big 3rdParty release missing - yet it did have the strongest Holiday performance of all consoles this generation. And PS4/One launched had a lot of hype and demand going for them because the PS360 gen was so long. The idea of PS5/Nextbox launches just dominating "because" - seems a bit weird to me. They would need the by far best launch numbers and shipments ever in addition to the Switch somewhat tanking. I dont know about that.
Compare what these consoles sold during launch and how much the Switch will sell this Holiday season.
Those third party games will largely be available on the Xbox one and PS4 as well for the first few years. So I'm not really seeing these cross gen games pushing the new consoles
PS5 and Scarlett vs Switch for launch month (assuming it's November) will entirely come down to the shipment size of the former and the deals of the latter. Granted if either launch earlier than they take the month without question. But Switch taking next year is the most likely outcome.
Not really.
1st full year in the US :
PS3 : 2.56m
X360 : 3.9m
PS4 : 4.77m
XB1 : 4.32m
NSW in 2017 (10 months) : 4.88m
NSW in 2018 : 5.64m
NSW in 2019 : curently up 20-30% YoY
So even if in 2020/2021, the Switch declines it should remain a tough competitor.
Of course they will, the hardcore crowd will jump over to a new gen asap.
It is likely true but that would still be beatable numbers.
The XB1 sold 2.5m units whereas the PS4 sold 1.9m units (limited by stock issues) in November/December 2014.
Last year, the Switch sold 3.1m units during those two months.
I just think they will outdo the Switch. I don't know about either "dominating" the other.
Your points are fair btw. I think the Switch's price is a considerable advantage that shouldn't be overlooked though.
They did for this generation. It won't change next gen.
Agreed.
One outdoing the other doesn't have to mean it will be a sizable gap.
The gap will depend on factors unknown today like the price and the release schedule for all these consoles.
Was wondering if switch would lose out on a month.
Thought sales would dip with the lite announcement, but July is a strong software month. August has the new switch, September has the lite and a bunch of major titles.
Maybe it'll lose November with a big Black Friday sale
Thought sales would dip with the lite announcement, but July is a strong software month. August has the new switch, September has the lite and a bunch of major titles.
Maybe it'll lose November with a big Black Friday sale
This is the year we should see some nice Black Friday deals for the Switch so I'd bet on it more than holding it's own, if not taking it
Given how close last Nov was, I doubt it. Also not sure if the New Switch will have an effect in August, since it seems to be more of a stealth drop.
As to 2021, another factor will be how the PS5 and Scarlett perform. If it's a 360 style split (where one clearly dominates the other) then the Switch would be number 2. If it's more like this gen, where both systems sell relatively close to each other, then the Switch could narrowly top both.
Switch last November was ~1.35 million. If Switch sells something like that , i don't see PS5 beat Switch during launch month.
I don't, but NPD often reports on what system sold the most and what system had the highest revenue.
Well, both of them are launching so late they might as well be 2021 consoles.
I'm a bit bemused by posters claiming next-gen is 'around the corner' when the consoles are a year plus away. That's not around the corner.
I can see both beating Switch the month the launch in but losing holidays because Switch will likely still have the best December on the fact of price differences (there's only so many people who will pay for $400-$500 or even $600 consoles) and lineup.
We have zero idea what Switch's 2020 lineup is going to look like. But it will certainly be more well rounded than the mostly cross gen and 1 or 2 exclusives on the new consoles.
If Switch is up 20-30% this year, they can be down 20-30% next year and still sell as much as they did last year, and Switch may not be down next year, could be flat.
~1.1M
Next gen launches will probably do 1M day one so depending on which week they launch, either PS5 or Scarlett could hit 1.2-1.4M