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Hero

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,743
SMO is behaving like a typical 3D Mario game does post-release. BotW is behaving abnormally for a 3D Zelda game post-release.

The summer is a slow period, but PS4 and XB1 tanking and Nintendo low key entering beast mode (well in SW) even before the release of the hardware revisions and with semi open world Pokemon coming up, is going to lead to a very interesting and probably one sided Christmas.

I wonder if Switch becoming the hot ticket at the end of the year is going to influence next gen hype.

Sony should have just listened to me and release PS5 in 2019.

Hey bud. Remember when you made the claim that SMM2 was dropping? I do. Good times.
 

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
I think a lot of people are forgetting that Breath of the Wild is the only Zelda game on the Switch and there are (3) games with Mario in the title in the Top 20 for the month competing with Odyssey for attention.

A parent picking up a Switch for their kid is way more likely to pick up Breath of the Wild, Mario Kart, and maybe one of these: Super Mario Maker 2/New Super Mario Bros U DX/Super Mario Odyssey.

That could be part of it.
 

Limabean01

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,664
WA, australia
I'd be really upset if Nintendo/retro doesn't handle prime 4 well and push the series to its full potential. The prime series always had the ability to be a massive seller imo, but never really entered mainstream culture or was gimped by release factors.

A well advertised Metroid game with the same critical praise as prime 1 would sell >5 million on switch if handled right, I'm sure of it.
 
OP
OP

Deleted member 249

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
28,828
Because you can't take one while ignoring the other. A game that has an explosive launch generally has harder drops. Odyssey has weaker legs than Zelda thus far yes. The LTD thus far is not wildly different Odyssey will chart relatively stronger in the holiday season than it is now. The frame of the discussion would make you think Odyssey wasn't the better selling game.
Because Odyssey isn't the better selling game. Breath of the Wild gets an additional 1.7 million units from the Wii U version that puts it over the top.
 

Simba1

Member
Dec 5, 2017
5,383
If Nintendo can do this with Fire Emblem, what's stopping them from doing it with their other underperforming IP?

Why do we not see a revival of this style for Metroid, Pikmin, Kid Icarus, F-Zero, Advance Wars, et al?

The reason for Fire Emblem's explosion in popularity is not just "waifus", though it's easy to say it's just that, the handling of the IP has been remarkable ever since Awakening. Why not go for a repeat?

Yeah, I also think because almost every Nintendo IP on Switch is selling from good to great, they will be much more willing to do some other older or not active IPs.
 

Wander_

Banned
Feb 26, 2018
5,552
Odyssey has still shipped over a million more units than BOTW Switch overall. The game had an explosive launch and obliterated all other 3D Mario game sales. This is ignoring how much more Mario games and platformers in general are on the Switch. And this ignores that Mario skews more towards children and the Switch is still expensive all things considering.

Odyssey's legs are not really bad. It's going to cross 20m.

BOTW hasn't even passed Odyssey yet, some of the talk here is legit crazy.

it has.
 

ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
I'd be really upset if Nintendo/retro doesn't handle prime 4 well and push the series to its full potential. The prime series always had the ability to be a massive seller imo, but never really entered mainstream culture or was gimped by release factors.

A well advertised Metroid game with the same critical praise as prime 1 would sell >5 million on switch if handled right, I'm sure of it.
the fact that Metroid Prime 3 didn't outsell the first tells me there might be some limitation. and it's not like it wasn't a critical darling
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,658
Why are you discussing total sales when the topic is continued sales?

Fact: Breath has been outcharting Odyssey.

We could check quarterly shipments too to have a better picture.

Global Quarterly Shipments

orMXXSo.png



Quarterly Average

BOTW - 1,361,000
SMO - 2,134,286

Quarterly Average Post Launch Quarter

BOTW - 1,205,556
SMO - 978,333

There have been 6 quarters following the launch of SMO. In this time, it has moved an additional 5,870,000 units. BOTW in the same time period has shipped 6,910,000 units. SMO pulled ahead of BOTW in Q2 and Q3 FY18 by a total of 230,000 but BOTW stayed ahead in Q1/Q4 FY18 and Q1 19 by a total of 1,270,000. We will see if last year's trend of SMO winning Q2/3 continues (unlikely for Q2 IMO).
 

Dark Cloud

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
61,087
the fact that Metroid Prime 3 didn't outsell the first tells me there might be some limitation. and it's not like it wasn't a critical darling
Metroid Prime 4 will easily be the best selling Metroid game. This is the best core Nintendo system Nintendo has had since the SNES. And you already know how all of Nintendo's games are selling on Switch. MP3 has no bearing on how much this franchise is about to grow.
 

Durden

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
12,511
Really happy to see MUA3 do so well. Despite some issues, primarily with the camera, it's an awesome game for what it is. And it was really cool for Nintendo do partner with them to publish it.
 

Everywhere

Banned
Jun 12, 2019
2,104
Global Quarterly Shipments

orMXXSo.png



Quarterly Average

BOTW - 1,361,000
SMO - 2,134,286

Quarterly Average Post Launch Quarter

BOTW - 1,205,556
SMO - 978,333

There have been 6 quarters following the launch of SMO. In this time, it has moved an additional 5,870,000 units. BOTW in the same time period has shipped 6,910,000 units. SMO pulled ahead of BOTW in Q2 and Q3 FY18 by a total of 230,000 but BOTW stayed ahead in Q1/Q4 FY18 and Q1 19 by a total of 1,270,000. We will see if last year's trend of SMO winning Q2/3 continues (unlikely for Q2 IMO).
Thank you.

That table also shows that new Switch owners are buying more Breath than Odyssey.
 

Limabean01

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,664
WA, australia
the fact that Metroid Prime 3 didn't outsell the first tells me there might be some limitation. and it's not like it wasn't a critical darling
Prime 3 underperforming as much as it did is for sure a strong argument against what I said, yes. But in counter to that point, I'd say the demographic for switch and general state of the industry is far removed from that of the Wii era.

Wii was a software beast for nintendo's more casual-oriented or truly flagship series like Mario kart and 2D Mario - but the 'hardcore' games they released didnt do nearly as well as the install base would have you think. Mainline Zelda, Smash, Xenoblade, 3D Mario, Kirby, Mario party, Mario tennis - practiclly all the 'smaller' tier franchises sold less on Wii than on switch, in most cases rather significantly so.

Metroid falls into that category very strongly. It is Nintendo's most hardcore, non-mainstream/casual franchise, at least out of their main stuff. This is exactly the audience that has caused BOTW, Odyssey, FE, Smash Bros, Xenoblade etc to do up to double the sales of Wii entries. 5m is a very optimistic goal, I'm aware of that, but I'm absolutely expecting it to easily be the best selling Metroid game of all time.
Well, technically speaking, that's correct
>:(
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,487
because that's how it works for every game and comparison?

mortal kombat wouldn't be the best selling game of the year if you count just the xbox version.

Be-because the sales of the game are spread across two platforms?
Breath of the Wild has outsold Super Mario Odyssey, just as Grand Theft Auto V has outsold Mario Kart Wii.

Because then the comparison isn't on even ground. But it you wanna add them sure, I'm not going to waste my time on this argument. If you aren't doing a platform specific comparison I dont even get the point of comparing these 2 titles at all.
 
OP
OP

Deleted member 249

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
28,828
Because then the comparison isn't on even ground. But it you wanna add them sure, I'm not going to waste my time on this argument. If you aren't doing a platform specific comparison I dont even get the point of comparing these 2 titles at all.
The comparison is between how the two games are selling, period. Breath of the Wild has sold more than Super Mario Odyssey, and continues to sell better than Super Mario Odyssey around the world. That's the point being made. Arbitrarily taking out about 10% of Breath of the Wild's sales to counter that point doesn't achieve anything at all.
 

Akita One

Member
Oct 30, 2017
4,626
the fact that Metroid Prime 3 didn't outsell the first tells me there might be some limitation. and it's not like it wasn't a critical darling
I think FPS games weren't nearly as popular then, unless it was a polished competitive shooter like Goldeneye or Halo 2. Especially so on those Nintendo consoles.

It's totally different now...Halo 3, then Oblivion/Skyrim, Borderlands and Deus Ex Human Revolution kicked the doors wide open. Many people now prefer first person adventure games over the traditional 3rd person games. The Switch now has FPS games left and right...I wouldn't be surprised if MP4 outsold all of the Metroid games since MP1 combined. This era is perfect for its success.
 

ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
Prime 3 underperforming as much as it did is for sure a strong argument against what I said, yes. But in counter to that point, I'd say the demographic for switch and general state of the industry is far removed from that of the Wii era.

Wii was a software beast for nintendo's more casual-oriented or truly flagship series like Mario kart and 2D Mario - but the 'hardcore' games they released didnt do nearly as well as the install base would have you think. Mainline Zelda, Smash, Xenoblade, 3D Mario, Kirby, Mario party, Mario tennis - practiclly all the 'smaller' tier franchises sold less on Wii than on switch, in most cases rather significantly so.

Metroid falls into that category very strongly. It is Nintendo's most hardcore, non-mainstream/casual franchise, at least out of their main stuff. This is exactly the audience that has caused BOTW, Odyssey, FE, Smash Bros, Xenoblade etc to do up to double the sales of Wii entries. 5m is a very optimistic goal, I'm aware of that, but I'm absolutely expecting it to easily be the best selling Metroid game of all time.

>:(
Metroid Prime 4 will easily be the best selling Metroid game. This is the best core Nintendo system Nintendo has had since the SNES. And you already know how all of Nintendo's games are selling on Switch. MP3 has no bearing on how much this franchise is about to grow.
MP4 being the best selling game in the series is a given, yes. but my point was more that, despite the Wii being more casual oriented, it's core Nintendo base is still larger than the GCN's. MP3 not matching MP1 might be more of a sign of an inherent problem with Metroid Prime than user base. how MP4 will pull past MP1 will tell us a lot.
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,487
The comparison is between how the two games are selling, period. Breath of the Wild has sold more than Super Mario Odyssey, and continues to sell better than Super Mario Odyssey around the world. That's the point being made. Arbitrarily taking out about 10% of Breath of the Wild's sales to counter that point doesn't achieve anything at all.

BOTW on 2 platforms has outsold Odyssey on 1 "barely". Okay? Removing BOTW WiiU sales to level out the comparison because 2 platforms is greater than 1 is simple math. It is not arbitrary.

Obviously if Odyssey had a WiiU version its total would be higher. That's why you do a platform specific comparison. BOTW outselling Odyssey when you add an aditional 13m userbase is not noteworthy as a comparison in my opinion. Not when the whole criticism is Odyssey was flash in the pan comparativeky (which is an lol statement alone). Its the better selling Switch title.
 
OP
OP

Deleted member 249

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
28,828
BOTW on 2 platforms has outsold Odyssey on 1 "barely". Okay? Removing BOTW WiiU sales to level out the comparison because 2 platforms is greater than 1 is simple math. It is not arbitrary.

Obviously if Odyssey had a WiiU version its total would be higher. That's why you do a platform specific comparison. BOTW outselling Odyssey when you add an aditional 13m userbase is not noteworthy as a comparison in my opinion.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
If that's the new goalpost, Odyssey is still about to be overtaken in short order, it's only a few hundred thousand units ahead. This conversation started with an observation of the two games' relative sales legs. The fact that BOTW is exhibiting greater legs than Odyssey even when their sales numbers are so close then reinforces the original point that was being made (which at the time was deflected with "well Odyssey sold more to begin with")
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,487
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
If that's the new goalpost, Odyssey is still about to be overtaken in short order, it's only a few hundred thousand units ahead. This conversation started with an observation of the two games' relative sales legs. The fact that BOTW is exhibiting greater legs than Odyssey even when their sales numbers are so close then reinforces the original point that was being made (which at the time was deflected with "well Odyssey sold more to begin with")

As of June 30, 2019

Odyssey 14.94m
BOTW 13.61m

That's more than a few hundred thousand. BOTW has better legs, no one is doubting that. The point of contention is both, Odyssey has had good legs and Odyssey is ahead of BOTW on the Switch. I donr have any doubt BOTW will sell better in the end though Odyssey will be big to watch in the holiday where Mario games get huge boosts
 

K Samedi

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,989
If Nintendo can do this with Fire Emblem, what's stopping them from doing it with their other underperforming IP?

Why do we not see a revival of this style for Metroid, Pikmin, Kid Icarus, F-Zero, Advance Wars, et al?

The reason for Fire Emblem's explosion in popularity is not just "waifus", though it's easy to say it's just that, the handling of the IP has been remarkable ever since Awakening. Why not go for a repeat?

They upped the budget on a lot of their games and Fire Emblem is one of them. Its natural they sell more. Now I can see F-Zero and Metroid and the others you mentioned doing good if they give it a proper budget and I hope they give them a chance but it's still risky business. I do think that Metroid and Pikmin are going to come back in a big way and break records. Not so sure about Advance Wars, Kid Icarus and F Zero.
 

IronTed

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jun 6, 2019
1,435
Prime 3 underperforming as much as it did is for sure a strong argument against what I said, yes. But in counter to that point, I'd say the demographic for switch and general state of the industry is far removed from that of the Wii era.

Wii was a software beast for nintendo's more casual-oriented or truly flagship series like Mario kart and 2D Mario - but the 'hardcore' games they released didnt do nearly as well as the install base would have you think. Mainline Zelda, Smash, Xenoblade, 3D Mario, Kirby, Mario party, Mario tennis - practiclly all the 'smaller' tier franchises sold less on Wii than on switch, in most cases rather significantly so.

Metroid falls into that category very strongly. It is Nintendo's most hardcore, non-mainstream/casual franchise, at least out of their main stuff. This is exactly the audience that has caused BOTW, Odyssey, FE, Smash Bros, Xenoblade etc to do up to double the sales of Wii entries. 5m is a very optimistic goal, I'm aware of that, but I'm absolutely expecting it to easily be the best selling Metroid game of all time.

It is interesting that Metroid was the only Nintendo IP going from GC to Wii that didn't get a boost. Prime 2 cratering was understandable given the circumstances but 3 is tougher to explain. 4 has a lot going for it and has no excuse as long as it's a great game, which it has to be to succeed.
 
OP
OP

Deleted member 249

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
28,828
As of June 30, 2019

Odyssey 14.94m
BOTW 13.61m

That's more than a few hundred thousand. BOTW has better legs, no one is doubting that. The point of contention is both, Odyssey has had good legs and Odyssey is ahead of BOTW on the Switch. I donr have any doubt BOTW will sell better in the end though Odyssey will be big to watch in the holiday where Mario games get huge boosts
Okay, yeah, the gap is bigger than I thought it was, fair enough.
I wonder if NSMBU/Mario Maker 2 will have any effect on how Odyssey does this Holiday (or if Link's Awakening will have any effect on BOTW, for that matter).
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,487
Okay, yeah, the gap is bigger than I thought it was, fair enough.

My only issue is I dont think Odyssey has poor legs. I think BOTW has outrageously good legs. Odyssey is already so much above your normal 3D Mario in such a short time it is hard to know what the limit is for it. BOTW is way above regular Zelda but it was a launch title so the growth wasn't instant like Odyssey.

The whole idea that Odyssey was a weak 3D Mario and that explains falling behind BOTW is weird. It is the best selling 3D installment. It isn't a quality thing. (This isnt even an Odyssey defense force, its 3rd on my Mario 3D plarformers list. You just cant deny how well its sold)

I wonder if NSMBU/Mario Maker 2 will have any effect on how Odyssey does this Holiday

Probably will just due to the amount of Mario and platforners on the system

(or if Link's Awakening will have any effect on BOTW, for that matter).

Likely wont since its a remake of a 2D entry.
 

Dark Cloud

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
61,087
F-Zero would sell better only because it's on the Switch. It will not show the growth you want to see from the series though if it's just F-Zero. The genre , more so the type of game it is, will always hold it back.
 

Deleted member 3017

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
17,653
BotW on Switch is absolutely going to outsell Odyssey at some point and it's going to be glorious. Not necessarily because Zelda deserves it more than Mario (that's pretty subjective), but because WHO THE HELL expected The Legend of Zelda to become this successful?!? Even in Japan??? It's wonderful to see.
 
OP
OP

Deleted member 249

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
28,828
My only issue is I dont think Odyssey has poor legs. I think BOTW has outrageously good legs. Odyssey is already so much above your normal 3D Mario in such a short time it is hard to know what the limit is for it. BOTW is way above regular Zelda but it was a launch title so the growth wasn't instant like Odyssey.

The whole idea that Odyssey was a weak 3D Mario and that explains falling behind BOTW is weird. It is the best selling 3D installment. It isn't a quality thing.

Probably will just due to the amount of Mario and platforners on the system

Likely wont since its a remake of a 2D entry.
Right, I wouldn't say Odyssey has poor legs in a vacuum, it's just that the charts are populated with games that have far better legs, relatively speaking (Zelda, Smash, Minecraft, GTA5). I don't think Odyssey has bad legs due to bad word of mouth, I think it has weaker legs than Breath of the Wild due to weaker word of mouth than Breath of the Wild (which I feel is an uncontroversial statement).
 

Deleted member 11008

User requested account closure
Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
6,627
It is interesting that Metroid was the only Nintendo IP going from GC to Wii that didn't get a boost. Prime 2 cratering was understandable given the circumstances but 3 is tougher to explain. 4 has a lot going for it and has no excuse as long as it's a great game, which it has to be to succeed.

If you say it's Metroid Prime 3 then it's more difficult to sell than a new unrelated entry, I think.

IMHO Nintendo should ditch the 4 for the fourth title and add a subtitle.
 
OP
OP

Deleted member 249

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
28,828
BotW on Switch is absolutely going to outsell Odyssey at some point and it's going to be glorious. Not necessarily because Zelda deserves it more than Mario (that's pretty subjective), but because WHO THE HELL expected The Legend of Zelda to become this successful?!? Even in Japan??? It's wonderful to see.
I think on the whole there's general agreement on Zelda being the better game, which ultimately is what fuels this success it has enjoyed.
I agree, it is magnificent to see. I hope BOTW2 is every bit as great (quality wise and success wise).
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,487
Right, I wouldn't say Odyssey has poor legs in a vacuum, it's just that the charts are populated with games that have far better legs, relatively speaking (Zelda, Smash, Minecraft, GTA5). I don't think Odyssey has bad legs due to bad word of mouth, I think it has weaker legs than Breath of the Wild due to weaker word of mouth than Breath of the Wild (which I feel is an uncontroversial statement).

I agree with this. I mean all this said I prefer BOTW to Odyssey personally. It will be interesting to see how Odyssey performs in the holidays.
 

Renna Hazel

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,557
Because then the comparison isn't on even ground. But it you wanna add them sure, I'm not going to waste my time on this argument. If you aren't doing a platform specific comparison I dont even get the point of comparing these 2 titles at all.
To be fair, the comparison isn't on even ground either way. BotW was a Switch launch game and the console was sold out for months. Plenty of Wii U owners likely would have purchased Zelda on Switch if the U version didn't exist. Zelda being on Wii U hurts it's sales on Switch (as opposed to it being solely on Switch). Obviously Odyssey would sell better overall if it were also on Wii U, but BotW would have sold better on Switch if it wasn't also on Wii U.
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Global Quarterly Shipments

orMXXSo.png



Quarterly Average

BOTW - 1,361,000
SMO - 2,134,286

Quarterly Average Post Launch Quarter

BOTW - 1,205,556
SMO - 978,333

There have been 6 quarters following the launch of SMO. In this time, it has moved an additional 5,870,000 units. BOTW in the same time period has shipped 6,910,000 units. SMO pulled ahead of BOTW in Q2 and Q3 FY18 by a total of 230,000 but BOTW stayed ahead in Q1/Q4 FY18 and Q1 19 by a total of 1,270,000. We will see if last year's trend of SMO winning Q2/3 continues (unlikely for Q2 IMO).

SMO outsold BotW during last year's Q3, which suggests that it's a more desirable gifting/family type of purchase that goes with a new Switch. It'll be interesting to see if that happens again this year.

But overall BotW is definitely outlegging SMO, no question.
 
Jan 10, 2018
6,327
I think a lot of people are forgetting that Breath of the Wild is the only Zelda game on the Switch and there are (3) games with Mario in the title in the Top 20 for the month competing with Odyssey for attention.

A parent picking up a Switch for their kid is way more likely to pick up Breath of the Wild, Mario Kart, and maybe one of these: Super Mario Maker 2/New Super Mario Bros U DX/Super Mario Odyssey.

That could be part of it.

Parents pick Smash and Mario Kart. Their kids can play with friends in the most easily and most satisfying way. Zelda is for the Switch coremarket, fuckers like us.
 

DecoReturns

Member
Oct 27, 2017
22,003
Zelda Breath of the Wild is Mainstream now.

Let see if Nintendo can keep the Zelda series in that position.
 

metalslimer

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
9,558
We are never getting a non open world mainline Zelda again which I'm happy about. Keep innovating in the breath of the wild style for a long time!

Grezzo can keep doing remakes though.