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NPD March 2018: Far Cry 5 #1, Sea of Thieves #2; PS4 Tops Hardware Charts

Oct 25, 2017
2,381
0
I like this kind of thing too.

Some other top-sellers by platform for March 2018:

Game Gear - Sonic 2
Cube - SpongeBob SquarePants: Creature from the Krusty Krab
NDS - Big Hero 6: Battle in the Bay/Disney Frozen: Olaf's Quest double pack
PS1 - Final Fantasy Anthology
PSP - Pac-Man World 3
Wii - Just Dance 2018
OG Xbox - Otogi 2: Immortal
I just bought this for April's Npd
 

Soony Xbone Uhh

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Oct 27, 2017
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We have both numbers so...
Yeah i know. Switch and 3DS, but this also includes Wii U.
So someone has to count all the Wii U sales for the full FY. Third party Wii U games are not updated tho and not reported anymore.

The total is somewhere above 100m units
 

Soony Xbone Uhh

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,162
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They're marginal, yes.
As i said Switch + 3DS is just shy of 100m software for the fiscal year.

That's 85.3 million fist party and 14.7 million third party.
 
Oct 25, 2017
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My concern is more immediate. We're seeing gold rush behavior there right now. Getting a dozen or so games a week, many of them good, and they're launching within an eShop that's not optimized for discoverability. By the time Q4 gets here the number of good titles showing up every week is just going to increase in scale. It's going to be very easy to get lost in all the new releases.

Indies seem to be selling quite well on the platform. Hoping we're going to see some improvements that make it easier for consumers to find them.
Thanks for answering my question.
I think indie curating is a big challenge and I haven't seen a convincing solution on any platform yet but the eShop could definitely use an improvement.
 

MatPiscatella

The NPD Group - Video Game Industry Analyst
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
1,857
0
Carlsbad, CA
www.npd.com
I guess this means we'll be able to know which of the new OG Xbox games that are becoming backwards compatible and available on the store are the most popular from NPD next month?
Only if they make the top 10, unfortunately.

I think indie curating is a big challenge and I haven't seen a convincing solution on any platform yet but the eShop could definitely use an improvement.
Agreed on all points.
 
OP
OP
Phantom Thief
Oct 25, 2017
21,000
0
I like this kind of thing too.

Some other top-sellers by platform for March 2018:

Game Gear - Sonic 2
Cube - SpongeBob SquarePants: Creature from the Krusty Krab
NDS - Big Hero 6: Battle in the Bay/Disney Frozen: Olaf's Quest double pack
PS1 - Final Fantasy Anthology
PSP - Pac-Man World 3
Wii - Just Dance 2018
OG Xbox - Otogi 2: Immortal
Mat can we get these every month, this is my favorite information in the thread so far
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,968
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twitter.com
I miss having platform rankings for multiplatform releases. I guess this is something we will never see return in public disclosure? Its a shame. It was a good bit of information that helped paint a picture of how each platform was performing on the SW side of things. I wonder if perhaps this was a condition for certain parties agreeing to join the digital panel. Either way the extra bit of info in the public disclosure is definitely missed.

Also, with the PS4 continuing to sell as well as it is at $299 we probably won't be seeing any official permanent price drops for a long while unless there is some dramatic shift in manufacturing that drastically reduces costs. They are just making wayyyy too much money selling these things for a hefty profit seemingly without any negative impact on demand/sales.

Its crazy to me that its selling as well as it is at $299 almost 5 years after launch. Its frankly baffling from a historical point of view. I don't remember any platform having such a small amount of cost fluctuation for so long and yet not only does PS4 have such a high price despite its age its continuing to sell heaps of units on a monthly basis. Its unreal. Sony must be absolutely thrilled with these numbers they are pulling off while maintaining a high profit margin on HW.
 
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Nov 7, 2017
1,298
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I miss having platform rankings for multiplatform releases. I guess this is something we will never see return in public disclosure? Its a shame. It was a good bit of information that helped paint a picture of how each platform was performing on the SW side of things. I wonder if perhaps this was a condition for certain parties agreeing to join the digital panel. Either way the extra bit of info in the public disclosure is definitely missed.

Also, with the PS4 continuing to sell as well as it is at $299 we probably won't be seeing any official permanent price drops for a long while unless there is some dramatic shift in manufacturing that drastically reduces costs. They are just making wayyyy too much money selling these things for a hefty profit seemingly without any negative impact on demand/sales.

Its crazy to me that its selling as well as it is at $299 almost 5 years after launch. Its frankly baffling from a historical point of view. I don't remember any platform having such a small amount of cost fluctuation for so long and yet not only does PS4 have such a high price despite its age its continuing to sell heaps of units on a monthly basis. Its unreal. Sony must be absolutely thrilled with these numbers they are pulling off while maintaining a high profit margin on HW.
Makes you wonder how long of a tail it will have. If they ever drop to $199 that will have a huge impact on sales. Who knows maybe PS2 level sales is still on the cards. Guess the timing of the PS5 will play a large role there.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,968
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twitter.com
Makes you wonder how long of a tail it will have. If they ever drop to $199 that will have a huge impact on sales. Who knows maybe PS2 level sales is still on the cards. Guess the timing of the PS5 will play a large role there.
Ehh i doubt it. With the speed at which last gen's sales dropped off after the start of this gen I don't think we will see the sort of prolonged sales life we saw with PS2 ever again. If anything I think it just gives them more of a reason to try and extend this generation for as long as they can especially given the existence of a premium performance SKU in addition to the base unit. If anything it should make themmore confident that they can continue to sell the platform for longer with the extra wiggle room they have on pricing.

Digital tracking is currently done for the Xbox, PlayStation and Steam digital platforms only. Digital sales of SoT on Windows X store are not included in the rankings.

And I’m a bit surprised around the confusion on the hardware notes. I clearly identify PS4 as the best-selling hardware platform, with Neon Switch as the best-selling hardware item. But I guess some folks don’t differentiate between the two terms. Really not sure how it could be any more clear other than just eleiminating one of the notes.
I think there is some confusion around the language of "item" versus "plaftform." perhaps it would be better to actually just say SKU instead of "item" next time as that is more universally understood. Item is vague enough as to potentially be confusing where as SKU leaves no room for confusion.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,584
0
Australia
I like this kind of thing too.

Some other top-sellers by platform for March 2018:

Game Gear - Sonic 2
Cube - SpongeBob SquarePants: Creature from the Krusty Krab
NDS - Big Hero 6: Battle in the Bay/Disney Frozen: Olaf's Quest double pack
PS1 - Final Fantasy Anthology
PSP - Pac-Man World 3
Wii - Just Dance 2018
OG Xbox - Otogi 2: Immortal
That's awesome.

Any chance you could put some numbers on these?
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,094
0
35
Nintendu 64
mood.doctype.me
on switch games are sold for actual money. on steam it's for a tip.
people whine about switch sales not giving low enough discounts and keeping prices high, but for indies it's just healthy to live in an environment where there's no constant race to the bottom. steam sales are obscene.
For most indie games, there will be the same situtation on Switch in 2-3 years from now.
 
Nov 7, 2017
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Ehh i doubt it. With the speed at which last gen's sales dropped off after the start of this gen I don't think we will see the sort of prolonged sales life we saw with PS2 ever again. If anything I think it just gives them more of a reason to try and extend this generation for as long as they can especially given the existence of a premium performance SKU in addition to the base unit. If anything it should make themmore confident that they can continue to sell the platform for longer with the extra wiggle room they have on pricing.
Depending when the PS5 launches. From memory the PS2 sold something like 50 million after the release of the PS3. If the PS5 doesn't release until 2020 the PS4 could have a slight head start.

Last gen both the 360 and PS3 had frequent and aggressive price drops through their lives and it was a prolonged gen which prevented any decent legs.

I'm not expecting the PS4 to match the PS2 but I think 130+ million is in play.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,968
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twitter.com
Depending when the PS5 launches. From memory the PS2 sold something like 50 million after the release of the PS3. If the PS5 doesn't release until 2020 the PS4 could have a slight head start.

Last gen both the 360 and PS3 had frequent and aggressive price drops through their lives and it was a prolonged gen which prevented any decent legs.

I'm not expecting the PS4 to match the PS2 but I think 130+ million is in play.
130 lifetime is possible I think. But keep in mind we are unlikely too see the PS4 drop to the $99 pricepoint we saw the PS2 eventually drop to as well so yea I think the sales curve post PS5 launch is going to be incredibly steep. As such I'M thinking PS4 will end up somewhere in the neighborhood of 118 million Lifetime. I'd see 130 as the feasible maximum for the platfrom.



Finally got the video up. Sorry for the head cold.
Thanks as always for the video Mat. Hope you're feeling better now. I know you're busy and that these videos are something you do voluntarily in your free time so thanks for the time and effort.

Do you have any interest in maybe glitzing the videos up a bit or would you rather stick to the austere style you've got going on? The videos certainly do their job in informing folks but if you're interested in perhaps expanding your audience for them there are a few things here and there that could be done to help albeit with a bit more of a time investment on your end.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,968
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twitter.com
Apologies all for these late replies but I am just now catching up on the thread. Its been a crazy week this week so I'm nly just now having the time to sit down and comb through everything.
A $99 headset was the top selling? Surprising.
Also surprising was that the Xbox Live $25 card was the best selling game card.
Both of these are revenue, right?
Yea $25 Xbox LIve card being the top card for the month just shows that these battle royale games are pushing HW and sales on all platforms as it seems fairly certain that they are the major riving force behind these game card sales. Looks like the rising tide is truly lifting all the boats as it were.
I'm sure it doesn't have a huge impact on their revenue, but I am incredulous that it's impossible to buy a 360 game or an original Xbox game on the Xbox One without using a credit card.
On the Xbox One if you try to use your Microsoft Account Balance on a BC game, it tells you to use a credit card. With Microsoft's growing focus on backwards compatibility, they really need to figure out a way to make it work.
Huh that is odd. I just assumed they would be compatible with anything on the store. I wonder why that is.
But yea I guess that just cements even further that the game card sales are largely due to battle royale MTX more than anything else.
I think Sony should probably get their studios on next gen because it takes them for fucking ever to make games these days. Not their fault, but just in general.
Nah it'll follow their usual trend of a very slow start for SW and then an all out assault a few years into the gen. That said I imagine it could take them even a bit longer to get rolling next gen than it did this time around. All the more reason for them to have full backwards compatibility to fall back on and reinforce their catalog in the early years of the gen. Them not having that to fal back on again would be a huge mistake both for general consumer appeal with their early SW slate and for consumer retention coming from such a dominant generation of HW for them.
*nods*
At the same time though, many indie developers are saying they're getting sales on Switch at or better than they are on other platforms.
Switch a great place to be, but also shows how tough it is on STEAM and other platforms for indies right now.
I think a lot of that boils down to visibility and market saturation on other platforms though. If I recall correctly the same was true of the PS4 shortly after release with Indie games setting sales records and having phenomenal success in part due to lack of competition for visibility and mindshare at the time. While I'm sure the Switch will mirror the Vita in having particularly strong indie sales for its lifetime due in large part to its portable nature I do think these sorts of massive success will become much less common once the market on the system starts getting similarly crowded with more releases like we've seen on other platforms. I do think, however, we will see stronger price retention for indie SW on the platform and that will mean stronger revenue even given the same sort of market performance.
I like this kind of thing too.
Some other top-sellers by platform for March 2018:
Game Gear - Sonic 2
Cube - SpongeBob SquarePants: Creature from the Krusty Krab
NDS - Big Hero 6: Battle in the Bay/Disney Frozen: Olaf's Quest double pack
PS1 - Final Fantasy Anthology
PSP - Pac-Man World 3
Wii - Just Dance 2018
OG Xbox - Otogi 2: Immortal
Who the hell is still using a game gear? Flashbacks to shoving 6 AA batteries and watchinig in horror as they were depleted completely within 3 hours. 3 HOURS! Dont get me wrong that thing was a technical marvel at the time but man I've never dropped a platform so quickly. Granted Sonic 2 was like one of three games I ahd for it and is arguably the best game the system got so at least consumers still have great taste. Kudos to them but seriously... just buy a nomad or something. Nobody deserves to deal with thtat battery munching atrocity.
These random sales factoids about legacy systems are cool to see though. Fascinating stuff seeing SW is still selling somewhere at retial for these systems. I hope to see this become a monthly feature.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,968
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twitter.com
With Sony's forecast for the FY being 16 million it seems unlikely we will be seeing any price drops. Their forecast would almost assuredly be higher after the mad rush that promotional holiday price caused if they were planning to do so.
 
Oct 26, 2017
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With Sony's forecast for the FY being 16 million it seems unlikely we will be seeing any price drops. Their forecast would almost assuredly be higher after the mad rush that promotional holiday price caused if they were planning to do so.
They always do holiday price cuts in the US and EU retailers will be able to lower prices when they see fit. Can't keep sales at 18-20M every year, there is a point when sales curve downward, no matter what you do.

Holiday sales in 2017 in the US were basically flat from holiday 2016 despite the $199 price drop and $249 pricing. If they do a $249 price drop with $199 during Black Friday, I would assume sales would be lower than last year since they had the same deal last year. The PS4 is currently in a downward trend in the US and WW shipments.
 
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MatPiscatella

The NPD Group - Video Game Industry Analyst
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
1,857
0
Carlsbad, CA
www.npd.com
Do you have any interest in maybe glitzing the videos up a bit or would you rather stick to the austere style you've got going on? The videos certainly do their job in informing folks but if you're interested in perhaps expanding your audience for them there are a few things here and there that could be done to help albeit with a bit more of a time investment on your end.
Thanks for the feedback Rex. I appreciate it.

"Austere" made me chuckle, but I get it. So, long story short, I've just wanted to prove out whether or not anyone would care about these kinds of videos over the last 6 months. Turns out they do, but timing is critical. If I'm delayed a day I know I'll lose 500-1,000 views, and we're only talking 3k or so every month to begin with. So I know if I'm going to do these, they really have to be ready the moment the media release hits.

Of course, that leads to some challenges. Data is ready for analysis Monday morning, around 9-10ish Pacific. Between then and media release Tuesday around 3PMish I have to validate, analyze, turn around a 35 page report that goes to clients, write the media release as well as construct and record the YouTube bit. There are also some internal meetings that happen around this time. So, a lot to get through in a short period of time. And if something is wonky in the data that throws things off, as you can imagine. So on months like this one, where I also happened to be traveling and presenting to a client on Tuesday, and when I made a goof in the YouTube show forcing me to have to re-record it, it can be a bummer.

Anyways, adding even an hour or two to the YouTube bit is a real challenge (especially seeing as the whole thing generates zero revenue and I basically do it just for fun because I know the datahead fans dig it). I'm always trying to figure out ways to get better and make it more interesting, but in reality I probably have 1-1.5 hours of real time to prepare and record the thing, which isn't a lot, and I'm usually doing it after everything else gets done, which means I'm already kinda baked.

I dunno, it's something I think about quite a bit. And I'm not complaining or making excuses, data release is the most fun time of the month even if it is a lot. And the YouTube bit really needs some improvements. I really dig this time of month, getting to dive in to the numbers and pick out the interesting bits. And I enjoy (most of) the interaction here and on the twitters and wherever. But yeah, all the social stuff is me just having some fun, so I gotta balance. Working on it.
 
Oct 26, 2017
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For what it's worth those two + pokemon are the only reason I'm getting a switch, and if I could play these games on PC or PS4 I would.
That's fair. For me, I'd gladly play any and all games on the Switch over my PS4 or XB1 and I only got the former for the Japanese games that won't come to Nintendo platforms and the latter for Fortnite and Halo with my friends
 
Oct 25, 2017
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*nods*

At the same time though, many indie developers are saying they're getting sales on Switch at or better than they are on other platforms.

Switch a great place to be, but also shows how tough it is on STEAM and other platforms for indies right now.
Kinda late, but Nintendo apparently isn't reporting software unit sales for digital-only games, so many of those indie games would not be accounted for in the above percentage of third party sales, right?
 

Bog

Member
Oct 27, 2017
887
0
Amazing. These are great!

I just looked it up: Pac-Man World 3 ships on UMD. There's a blast from the past.
Yeah, it had the distinction of being the only game that shipped that way on PSP... aside from every other game ever released for the system.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,968
0
twitter.com
Thanks for the feedback Rex. I appreciate it.

"Austere" made me chuckle, but I get it. So, long story short, I've just wanted to prove out whether or not anyone would care about these kinds of videos over the last 6 months. Turns out they do, but timing is critical. If I'm delayed a day I know I'll lose 500-1,000 views, and we're only talking 3k or so every month to begin with. So I know if I'm going to do these, they really have to be ready the moment the media release hits.

Of course, that leads to some challenges. Data is ready for analysis Monday morning, around 9-10ish Pacific. Between then and media release Tuesday around 3PMish I have to validate, analyze, turn around a 35 page report that goes to clients, write the media release as well as construct and record the YouTube bit. There are also some internal meetings that happen around this time. So, a lot to get through in a short period of time. And if something is wonky in the data that throws things off, as you can imagine. So on months like this one, where I also happened to be traveling and presenting to a client on Tuesday, and when I made a goof in the YouTube show forcing me to have to re-record it, it can be a bummer.

Anyways, adding even an hour or two to the YouTube bit is a real challenge (especially seeing as the whole thing generates zero revenue and I basically do it just for fun because I know the datahead fans dig it). I'm always trying to figure out ways to get better and make it more interesting, but in reality I probably have 1-1.5 hours of real time to prepare and record the thing, which isn't a lot, and I'm usually doing it after everything else gets done, which means I'm already kinda baked.

I dunno, it's something I think about quite a bit. And I'm not complaining or making excuses, data release is the most fun time of the month even if it is a lot. And the YouTube bit really needs some improvements. I really dig this time of month, getting to dive in to the numbers and pick out the interesting bits. And I enjoy (most of) the interaction here and on the twitters and wherever. But yeah, all the social stuff is me just having some fun, so I gotta balance. Working on it.
Understood. Yeah release seems like a whirlwind of responsibilities. I figured as much. What you have works well from an information exchange standpoint for the intended audience. If time is in such short supply that makes sense. Keep it up. I’m sure you’ll continue to pick up some additional skills and techniques with video editing and whatnot here and there as you go. Thanks again for taking the time to do so on a monthly basis!

They always do holiday price cuts in the US and EU retailers will be able to lower prices when they see fit. Can't keep sales at 18-20M every year, there is a point when sales curve downward, no matter what you do.

Holiday sales in 2017 in the US were basically flat from holiday 2016 despite the $199 price drop and $249 pricing. If they do a $249 price drop with $199 during Black Friday, I would assume sales would be lower than last year since they had the same deal last year. The PS4 is currently in a downward trend in the US and WW shipments.
Don’t think I agree with this as I see the software slate for PS4 being particularly strong this year so provided they do a price cut I would assume it would be at least flat or even possibly up YoY. Without one though we will continue to see the slight decrease YoY that we’ve seen thus far this year.

This forecast tells me that they are going to delay any permanent price cut till the very end of the year if they do any at all. And that makes sense for them from a profit standpoint. Why cut price and reduce profit margins when the system is continuing to sell as well as it is even if that is a bit down YoY? It’s just crazy to me that the system continues sell as well as it does at the price point it’s at. I would’ve predicted a much steeper demand drop off at this price so late into the console’s lifecycle.
 
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Oct 28, 2017
2,205
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With Sony's forecast for the FY being 16 million it seems unlikely we will be seeing any price drops. Their forecast would almost assuredly be higher after the mad rush that promotional holiday price caused if they were planning to do so.
They will beat that forecast easily. Sony has been conservative this gen outiside FY 2016. The forecast for 2015 was 16 ML and they shipped 17.7 Ml in the FY.
 

MatPiscatella

The NPD Group - Video Game Industry Analyst
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
1,857
0
Carlsbad, CA
www.npd.com
Quick FYI, found out Sea of Thieves sales actually do include digital PC on the Windows X store. Play Anywhere titles aggregate under Xbox One platform. Doesn’t change the month’s story, just wanted to clarify. Will be changing headers on the platform charts for next month.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,435
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Quick FYI, found out Sea of Thieves sales actually do include digital PC on the Windows X store. Play Anywhere titles aggregate under Xbox One platform. Doesn’t change the month’s story, just wanted to clarify. Will be changing headers on the platform charts for next month.
That makes sense, thanks.
 
Oct 27, 2017
6,053
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Quick FYI, found out Sea of Thieves sales actually do include digital PC on the Windows X store. Play Anywhere titles aggregate under Xbox One platform. Doesn’t change the month’s story, just wanted to clarify. Will be changing headers on the platform charts for next month.
Makes sense and expected.
 
Oct 28, 2017
206
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With Sony's forecast for the FY being 16 million it seems unlikely we will be seeing any price drops. Their forecast would almost assuredly be higher after the mad rush that promotional holiday price caused if they were planning to do so.
With the amount of exclusive games they have this year, and the good old 3rd party marketing deals, I think they will end up revising that forecast upwards later in the year. But yeah, it doesn't seem like they will be slashing the prices, at least not significantly.
 
Oct 27, 2017
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People freak about forecasts. It's doesn't even matter when companies change their forecast continually. How many times did Nintendo change their forecasts with the switch?

Forecasts aren't set in stone. It's a prediction that changes good\bad on the fly.
 

ZhugeEX

诸葛亮 - 卧龙
Administrator
Oct 24, 2017
2,536
0
Quick FYI, found out Sea of Thieves sales actually do include digital PC on the Windows X store. Play Anywhere titles aggregate under Xbox One platform. Doesn’t change the month’s story, just wanted to clarify. Will be changing headers on the platform charts for next month.
Makes sense. The digital sales for the title were extremely impressive.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,134
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Only physical sales for Switch? But digital + physical for PS4 and Xbox One? I mean Kirby at #4 with no digital sales counted should be the big news here. Don't know how things are in the US but everyone I know including myself buys everything digital on Switch where I live, simply because it's basically a portable and it's annoying to have to carry around game cards.
 
Jan 15, 2018
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topping your forecast is no shame for the company. only for the forecaster.
We’re at that point in the PS4 lifecycle when we are waiting for the tipping point and sales to start declining. A forecast of 16m seems very conservative, so it will look good when they deliver 18m (my personal estimate).

It’s really upto Sony whether they take a bigger hit and offer more significant, longer sales. They probably haven’t even decided on their strategy.

The other big unknown is PS5. I doubt we’ll hear anything official this year, but by the end of the year PS5 maybe dominating the headlines via leaks, which in turn will have an impact on sales.