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NPD March 2018: Far Cry 5 #1, Sea of Thieves #2; PS4 Tops Hardware Charts

Wololo

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Member
Nov 20, 2017
1,564
0
So I'm a bit confused. Are they saying the drop in hardware sales was driven by the Xbox one? Yet the ps4 still sold more? Bit confusing the way it reads.
 

MatPiscatella

The NPD Group - Video Game Industry Analyst
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
1,862
0
Carlsbad, CA
www.npd.com
So I'm a bit confused. Are they saying the drop in hardware sales was driven by the Xbox one? Yet the ps4 still sold more? Bit confusing the way it reads.
Drop was because of Switch. Last March was launch, so of course it’s down.

Xbox One has big growth versus last year, PS4 relatively flat, but still leading the market.
 
We’re at that point in the PS4 lifecycle when we are waiting for the tipping point and sales to start declining. A forecast of 16m seems very conservative, so it will look good when they deliver 18m (my personal estimate).

It’s really upto Sony whether they take a bigger hit and offer more significant, longer sales. They probably haven’t even decided on their strategy.

The other big unknown is PS5. I doubt we’ll hear anything official this year, but by the end of the year PS5 maybe dominating the headlines via leaks, which in turn will have an impact on sales.
if sony's pricing strategy isn't related to the calendar but to the development of sales numbers we might have to be really patient. right now they just keep on drinking their milk with lots of cream and see how far this wave will carry them.
so, it's more our fault then theirs that ps4 still has this price tag.
 
Oct 25, 2017
242
0
Quick FYI, found out Sea of Thieves sales actually do include digital PC on the Windows X store. Play Anywhere titles aggregate under Xbox One platform. Doesn’t change the month’s story, just wanted to clarify. Will be changing headers on the platform charts for next month.
Wait so essentially some sales counts twice?
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,464
0
Is GOW game moving hardware?
We'll see next month.

Surprising to see Sony not really bother with price cuts for PS4. They'll probably do the same promotion they did last year, $199 and I think a game for Black Friday?

Nevertheless, you'd think Sony would want as many people in their ecosystem so that they transfer to PS5. But yeah, clearly PS4 is reaching its saturation point, and the only thing thats probably going to convince casuals at this late in the game is price.
 
Mar 13, 2018
405
0
Thanks for the feedback Rex. I appreciate it.

"Austere" made me chuckle, but I get it. So, long story short, I've just wanted to prove out whether or not anyone would care about these kinds of videos over the last 6 months. Turns out they do, but timing is critical. If I'm delayed a day I know I'll lose 500-1,000 views, and we're only talking 3k or so every month to begin with. So I know if I'm going to do these, they really have to be ready the moment the media release hits.

Of course, that leads to some challenges. Data is ready for analysis Monday morning, around 9-10ish Pacific. Between then and media release Tuesday around 3PMish I have to validate, analyze, turn around a 35 page report that goes to clients, write the media release as well as construct and record the YouTube bit. There are also some internal meetings that happen around this time. So, a lot to get through in a short period of time. And if something is wonky in the data that throws things off, as you can imagine. So on months like this one, where I also happened to be traveling and presenting to a client on Tuesday, and when I made a goof in the YouTube show forcing me to have to re-record it, it can be a bummer.

Anyways, adding even an hour or two to the YouTube bit is a real challenge (especially seeing as the whole thing generates zero revenue and I basically do it just for fun because I know the datahead fans dig it). I'm always trying to figure out ways to get better and make it more interesting, but in reality I probably have 1-1.5 hours of real time to prepare and record the thing, which isn't a lot, and I'm usually doing it after everything else gets done, which means I'm already kinda baked.

I dunno, it's something I think about quite a bit. And I'm not complaining or making excuses, data release is the most fun time of the month even if it is a lot. And the YouTube bit really needs some improvements. I really dig this time of month, getting to dive in to the numbers and pick out the interesting bits. And I enjoy (most of) the interaction here and on the twitters and wherever. But yeah, all the social stuff is me just having some fun, so I gotta balance. Working on it.
The tweet above about Nintendo 3Rd party vs 1St party support ratio, is the 85% 1St party including wii u & 3DS? It seems to me that 3Rd Parties are generally really happy with their sales on Switch so I assume that what it is. Is that correct?
 

Jom

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,170
0
I think we need to start defining what "success" is when it comes to GoW. I propose that if it only loses Sony 1 million that's a solid success, 10 mil loss is a moderate success, and 100 mil loss is a wash.
 
Nov 2, 2017
8,059
0
I think we need to start defining what "success" is when it comes to GoW. I propose that if it only loses Sony 1 million that's a solid success, 10 mil loss is a moderate success, and 100 mil loss is a wash.
Sony will lose nothing and they will make money from it, I really don’t see how anyone can say it could make them lose money.
 

Ludens

Banned
Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,578
0
Sweden
We'll see next month.

Surprising to see Sony not really bother with price cuts for PS4. They'll probably do the same promotion they did last year, $199 and I think a game for Black Friday?

Nevertheless, you'd think Sony would want as many people in their ecosystem so that they transfer to PS5. But yeah, clearly PS4 is reaching its saturation point, and the only thing thats probably going to convince casuals at this late in the game is price.
They want to milk the price us much as possible. PS4 is still selling more than the Switch and Xbox so why would they do a price cut?
Also they have Spider man in sep so they will bank on that for the casuals. Maybe after BF and the holidays we will see a price cut.

Now Sony is making boatload of money so its hard for us to predict what they will do next.
 
Oct 26, 2017
626
0
behind your back
I think we need to start defining what "success" is when it comes to GoW. I propose that if it only loses Sony 1 million that's a solid success, 10 mil loss is a moderate success, and 100 mil loss is a wash.
i'd say it's already a success if they can keep the loss small enough, so they don't have to shut down the studio.
instead, sony could finally put them on a project that is more promising and contemporary than single player games, because the guys at santa monica seem to be quite talented after all. for example, they can start working on an avatar system for the playstation network.
 

v_iHuGi

Banned
Member
Oct 28, 2017
5,175
0
27
god of war will do fine (for a single player game at least).
don't expect too much of course, but in the end sony won't lose too much money on founding this outdated extravaganza.
One of the worst NPD posts I've ever seen, God of War already made every single cent back.

Edit : i see this is Satire, lmao you fooled me.

10/10 post, from worst to best I've yet seen.
 
Oct 27, 2017
3,841
0
i'd say it's already a success if they can keep the loss small enough, so they don't have to shut down the studio.
instead, sony could finally put them on a project that is more promising and contemporary than single player games, because the guys at santa monica seem to be quite talented after all. for example, they can start working on an avatar system for the playstation network.
This is brutal.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,107
0
35
Nintendu 64
mood.doctype.me
i'd say it's already a success if they can keep the loss small enough, so they don't have to shut down the studio.
instead, sony could finally put them on a project that is more promising and contemporary than single player games, because the guys at santa monica seem to be quite talented after all. for example, they can start working on an avatar system for the playstation network.
nice one :)

though, who knows. it seems they're already started:

 
Oct 26, 2017
1,744
0
California
i'd say it's already a success if they can keep the loss small enough, so they don't have to shut down the studio.
instead, sony could finally put them on a project that is more promising and contemporary than single player games, because the guys at santa monica seem to be quite talented after all. for example, they can start working on an avatar system for the playstation network.
STOP, STOP! HE'S ALREADY DEAD!
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,336
0
Chicago
i'd say it's already a success if they can keep the loss small enough, so they don't have to shut down the studio.
instead, sony could finally put them on a project that is more promising and contemporary than single player games, because the guys at santa monica seem to be quite talented after all. for example, they can start working on an avatar system for the playstation network.
This post is a forum treasure!

It should be buried under a sandy beach.
 

Jom

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,170
0
i'd say it's already a success if they can keep the loss small enough, so they don't have to shut down the studio.
instead, sony could finally put them on a project that is more promising and contemporary than single player games, because the guys at santa monica seem to be quite talented after all. for example, they can start working on an avatar system for the playstation network.
I don't think that's ambitious enough for a studio of SSM's caliber. I'd suggest avatar system and then a battle royale with those avatars. Purchases for customizations for the avatars on the dashboard/profile do not carry over to the BR game for 2x the mtx so that SSM can finally start making up for some of their losses.
 
Oct 25, 2017
787
0
Quick FYI, found out Sea of Thieves sales actually do include digital PC on the Windows X store. Play Anywhere titles aggregate under Xbox One platform. Doesn’t change the month’s story, just wanted to clarify. Will be changing headers on the platform charts for next month.
When you originally said they didn't could I was confused... There is no difference at all in any way between the store on PC and on Xbox... It's the same binary
 
Oct 26, 2017
626
0
behind your back
I don't think that's ambitious enough for a studio of SSM's caliber. I'd suggest avatar system and then a battle royale with those avatars. Purchases for customizations for the avatars on the dashboard/profile do not carry over to the BR game for 2x the mtx so that SSM can finally start making up for some of their losses.
that's the razor-sharpest concept i ever heard of. awesome brainwork, jom.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,968
0
twitter.com
sony should make a sackboy/girl avatar system and have people earn costumes and accessories by spending trophies
I gotta say this genuinely seems like a fantastic idea except Sackboy/Sackgirl aren't really a major image for the brand these days. Perhaps they could do something with dreams where you create your own avatars.
 

MatPiscatella

The NPD Group - Video Game Industry Analyst
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
1,862
0
Carlsbad, CA
www.npd.com
When you originally said they didn't could I was confused... There is no difference at all in any way between the store on PC and on Xbox... It's the same binary
Well, that's because I was wrong.

Issue was that we are only authorized to track PSN, XBL and STEAM. However, because Microsoft's own systems don't differentiate between Xbox and Win X store purchases for titles like Sea of Thieves (because, yeah, same unique identifier) we also capture these PC purchases as Xbox One purchases. I hadn't realized this before.

Fun part is trying to create new headers for the best-sellers charts without using an additional 20 words to explain it.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,968
0
twitter.com
Well, that's because I was wrong.

Issue was that we are only authorized to track PSN, XBL and STEAM. However, because Microsoft's own systems don't differentiate between Xbox and Win X store purchases for titles like Sea of Thieves (because, yeah, same unique identifier) we also capture these PC purchases as Xbox One purchases. I hadn't realized this before.

Fun part is trying to create new headers for the best-sellers charts without using an additional 20 words to explain it.
Perhaps just indicate that all Microsoft published SW is XB1/Win10 unless otherwise stated. Seems simple enough
 
Mar 14, 2018
876
0
i'd say it's already a success if they can keep the loss small enough, so they don't have to shut down the studio.
instead, sony could finally put them on a project that is more promising and contemporary than single player games, because the guys at santa monica seem to be quite talented after all. for example, they can start working on an avatar system for the playstation network.
That's a brilliant post :)
only if it's sarcasm, of course
That is nearly two weeks of Fortnite revenue...
Nah, not every multiplayer game has the fortnite success and i am glad Sony still makes games like GoW