NPD May 2018: State of Decay 2 #1 software, PS4 tops hardware charts

Marano

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Mar 30, 2018
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I remain one of the most bullish analysts in the industry on Switch, Pokemon and Smash.

Leaving them off the top 10 list in a year with games like we have this year isn't downplaying any of them. Especially since we don't have digital in the tracking for Nintendo, Pokemon having two games (which always impacts its rankings) and the Dec 7 release for Smash. All will be very successful for a very long time.
With gamepass helping sales, do you see forza horizon 4 cracking the top 20? Maybe top 15? And also it's tracked by revenue, do you see the ultimate edition having a significant impact, with the car pass, two expansions and early release, or will it sell at a lower rate?
 

Theorry

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Oct 27, 2017
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With gamepass helping sales, do you see forza horizon 4 cracking the top 20? Maybe top 15? And also it's tracked by revenue, do you see the ultimate edition having a significant impact, with the car pass, two expansions and early release, or will it sell at a lower rate?
SoD2 ultimate edition did alot of work for the NPD for sure. It was very popular and was "only" 50 bucks. Even with 4 days early access gone is was very high on the xbox store after release.
Think a beefy ultitmate edition really can help. But the Ultimate edition of Forza Horizon is more pricey then the SoD2 tho.
 

Deleted member 2785

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A racing game hitting the top 10 of the year in the US is highly unlikely, regardless of the game or platforms.

As a genre, racing has been growing. But, against the slate this holiday? No chance imo.
 

Deleted member 2785

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I meant top 20 or even 15.
Oh.

Theoretically possible, sure. It's such a competitive year that I don't see it. But hey, SoT and SoD2 have both surprised me so who knows. And yep, seems to be no limit yet on how much people will pay for a game, so the high priced versions will help and will do very well.

Is your top 10 list limited to games launched in 2018? I'm wondering about the possibility of GTAV and MK8 being there.
Not limited, no. I just don't see any other titles squeezing in.
 

Emilijo

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Oct 27, 2017
494
Game boy is +100.000.000 ?
DS is at +150.000.000 ?
Nintendo home console have not been that successful historically
Yep, Sony sold cca 120 million home consoles more than Nintendo despite Nintendo releasing 3 extra home consoles and being on market 10 years before Sony:

PS1+PS2+PS3+PS4 = 420 million
NES+SNES+N64+NGC+Wii+WiiU+Switch = 300 million
 

gates2

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Jun 3, 2018
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Yep, Sony sold cca 120 million home consoles more than Nintendo despite Nintendo releasing 3 extra home consoles and being on market 10 years before Sony:

PS1+PS2+PS3+PS4 = 420 million
NES+SNES+N64+NGC+Wii+WiiU+Switch = 300 million
Wow that really puts it into perspective!
Imagine if Nintendo didn't betray Sony over the disc drive... the whole world changed because of that event. It gave birth to the most successful home console ever known to man. It must have been Nintendo's single worst decision in it's 128 years..

Btw the Vita is not tracked anymore but some stores still carry them in the US?
 
Oct 31, 2017
4,796
Oh.

Theoretically possible, sure. It's such a competitive year that I don't see it. But hey, SoT and SoD2 have both surprised me so who knows. And yep, seems to be no limit yet on how much people will pay for a game, so the high priced versions will help and will do very well.



Not limited, no. I just don't see any other titles squeezing in.
While Detroit represents Quantic Dream's best launch, do we have an estimate to the amount of units it sold? And if it did well relative to its budget? Don't know if that's something to which you have information yet.
 

Benji

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I'm expecting FH4 to be the best selling entry in the Horizon franchise, but not sure where exactly that would place it in the YTD charts. Probably not too high really.

Holiday 2018 is insanely packed with massive sellers
 

Emilijo

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Oct 27, 2017
494
Wow that really puts it into perspective!
Imagine if Nintendo didn't betray Sony over the disc drive... the whole world changed because of that event. It gave birth to the most successful home console ever known to man. It must have been Nintendo's single worst decision in it's 128 years..

Btw the Vita is not tracked anymore but some stores still carry them in the US?
Also, launch price of the PS1 was higher than N64, PS2 higher than NGC, PS3 a lot higher than Wii, PS4 higher than WiiU and Switch.
 

Peek-a-boo!

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Oct 30, 2017
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BTW the Vita is not tracked anymore but some stores still carry them in the US?
How can you track something that is dead?

Nah, it may well be ‘tracking’ to an extent, but the number is so minuscule that it doesn’t have any profound effect on the overhaul monthly rankings. If you pop into the Media Create thread, however, you shall be pleased to see that the PS Vita is alive and well!

PS1+PS2+PS3+PS4 = 420 million
NES+SNES+N64+NGC+Wii+WiiU+Switch = 300 million
Wow...

At this moment in time:

Average PlayStation console sells ~105 million
Average Nintendo (home) console sells ~ 43 million
And for good measure, the average Xbox console sells ~ 48 million

The takeaway from these numbers?

Sony should stick to their home consoles, Nintendo should stick with portable goodness and Microsoft should just, uh... carry on, I guess.
 

~Fake

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Oct 27, 2017
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I'm expecting FH4 to be the best selling entry in the Horizon franchise, but not sure where exactly that would place it in the YTD charts. Probably not too high really.

Holiday 2018 is insanely packed with massive sellers
September and October in particular.
 

Benji

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In regards to the buzz around FH4, the announce trailer for it is already nearing 2.5 million while the announce trailer for FH3 from its E3 is still only at 1 million.

FH4 is garnering a ton of attention post E3, especially for a racing title. That plus it being the first Forza game with Game Pass are some indicators it's going to sell extremely well for the current state of the genre
 
Oct 31, 2017
4,796
In regards to the buzz around FH4, the announce trailer for it is already nearing 2.5 million while the announce trailer for FH3 from its E3 is still only at 1 million.

FH4 is garnering a ton of attention post E3, especially for a racing title. That plus it being the first Forza game with Game Pass are some indicators it's going to sell extremely well for the current state of the genre
I posed the question to Mat, but I'm curious about your read as well: is 20% over Heavy Rain, with the increased budget of Detroit, considered good for Detroit? It's a high rank but also a far more expensive game, I figure, and it's one I want to get down the line. As someone who enjoys the developer's games, it's the one I'm most curious about since I wouldn't expect it to have the same legs as God of War.
 

Benji

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Oct 25, 2017
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I posed the question to Mat, but I'm curious about your read as well: is 20% over Heavy Rain, with the increased budget of Detroit, considered good for Detroit? It's a high rank but also a far more expensive game, I figure, and it's one I want to get down the line. As someone who enjoys the developer's games, it's the one I'm most curious about since I wouldn't expect it to have the same legs as God of War.

Personally speaking I would just classify Detroits performance as ok. Its certainly not a bomb by any means but I wouldn't call its performance overly positive either.

If you are someone who like the studios games there is no need to worry about their future but this wasn't exactly a home run either.

So just an overall ok / solid launch. Its QD highest launch but also their most expensive title to make by a good margin
 

chris 1515

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Oct 27, 2017
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Personally speaking I would just classify Detroits performance as ok. Its certainly not a bomb by any means but I wouldn't call its performance overly positive either.

If you are someone who like the studios games there is no need to worry about their future but this wasn't exactly a home run either.

So just an overall ok / solid launch. Its QD highest launch but also their most expensive title to make by a good margin
The cost is only 37 millions dollars. I am french and develop a game in France is much cheaper than in US and they use some outsourcing team like every studio. All their game were profitable...

http://www.playstationlifestyle.net/2018/03/22/detroit-become-human-budget-is-over-e30-million/

https://www.lesnumeriques.com/jeux-video/david-cage-detroit-become-human-est-proposition-radicale-a3729.html

And again, does Sony not push you to adopt an industrial logic? Has a Heavy Rain 2 not crossed your mind?

We didn't want to do it. Sony didn't even ask us the question. With them, we want to invent new things, to try new stories. It's an atypical adventure. It's a luxury with maximum freedom. But there's no mystery. Every game we make is profitable and finds its audience. Heavy Rain reached 5.4 million units on a single platform. Each game is profitable and generates profits.

And where do you rank on the budget scale?

We're at the bottom of the triple A range. We're trying to fight to remain competitive internationally. We had the budget we wanted for Detroit. It's not a cheap game. People will realize it by playing it. There's a lot of technology. I hope this game will compete with Triple A titles.

How many people worked on the game?

We were around 200. It's a big team but we're far from breaking records. Today there are games developed by more than 1,000 people.
Esir: And the cost is only 6 millions euros more than Beyond.
 

Ebtesam

Member
Apr 1, 2018
2,771
Yeah it does have 2K19 and Fifa to contend with in September. I expect 2K to probably take the number 1 spot.
Not This only


Look at the List
  • Genesis: Alpha One (PC, PS4, Xbox One) – September 4
  • Dragon Quest 11: Echoes of an Elusive Age (PC, PS4) – September 4
  • Destiny 2: Forsaken (PC, PS4, Xbox One) – September 4
  • Zone of the Enders: The 2nd Runner Mars (PC, PS4, PS VR, Steam VR) – September 6
  • Marvel’s Spider-Man (PS4) – September 7
  • NBA Live 19 (PS4, Xbox One) – September 7
  • Immortal: Unchained (PC, PS4, Xbox One) – September 7
  • NBA 2K19 (PC, PS4, Xbox One, Switch) – September 11
  • Shadow of the Tomb Raider (PC, PS4, Xbox One) – September 14
  • Black Clover Quartet Knight (PC, PS4) – September 14
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 2: Torna ~ The Golden Country DLC (Switch) – September 14
  • Spyro Reignited Trilogy (PS4, Xbox One) – September 21
  • 8-Bit Armies (PS4, Xbox One) – September 21
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 2: Torna ~ The Golden Country standalone (Switch) – September 21
  • Valkyria Chronicles 4 (PC, PS4, Xbox One, Switch) – September 25
  • Life is Strange 2 (PC, PS4, Xbox One) – September 27
  • Code Vein (PC, PS4, Xbox One) – September 28
  • Dragon Ball FighterZ (Switch) – September 28
  • FIFA 19 (PC, PS4, Xbox One, Switch) – September 29
  • V-Rally 4 (PC, PS4, Xbox One) – September
  • The InnerFriend (PC, PS4, Xbox One) – September
  • Insurgency: Sandstorm (PC) – September
 

Theorry

Member
Oct 27, 2017
18,569
In regards to the buzz around FH4, the announce trailer for it is already nearing 2.5 million while the announce trailer for FH3 from its E3 is still only at 1 million.

FH4 is garnering a ton of attention post E3, especially for a racing title. That plus it being the first Forza game with Game Pass are some indicators it's going to sell extremely well for the current state of the genre
Really curious what the day one or week one players are gonna be. Pretty sure we are gonna get that from MS now all the time. Looking at SoT and SoD2. Its good PR really.
 

Benji

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Oct 25, 2017
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The cost is only 37 millions dollars. I am french and develop a game in France is much cheaper than in US and they use some outsourcing team like every studio. All their game were profitable...

http://www.playstationlifestyle.net/2018/03/22/detroit-become-human-budget-is-over-e30-million/

https://www.lesnumeriques.com/jeux-video/david-cage-detroit-become-human-est-proposition-radicale-a3729.html



Esir: And the cost is only 6 millions euros more than Beyond.
I mean I still wouldn't call that a home run either way.

The game did fine, theres nothing wrong with that. Not every game is going to blow up and have an amazing performance. Its solid enough overall
 

dragonbane

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,369
Germany
I mean I still wouldn't call that a home run either way.

The game did fine, theres nothing wrong with that. Not every game is going to blow up and have an amazing performance. Its solid enough overall
For the US it certainly seems just decent. The development budget increased by 80% compared to Heavy Rain, but revenue only did by 20% in the US. Of course it needs to be mentioned that Heavy Rain was considered a big over-performance compared to its budget and Sony's expectations, so not matching that isn't necessarily a bad sign. Worldwide it is looking more favorable however since Detroit reached the 1 million units sold milestone faster than Heavy Rain by 150%.

For an interactive story game Sony should be quite happy with how it is doing (the legs also look solid in the UK and Japan).
 

Lelouch0612

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Oct 25, 2017
8,305
Benji how is Smash tracking right now and what are your expectations for the game ? Could it beat Brawl's opening month ?

Thank you very much.
 
Oct 31, 2017
4,796
Personally speaking I would just classify Detroits performance as ok. Its certainly not a bomb by any means but I wouldn't call its performance overly positive either.

If you are someone who like the studios games there is no need to worry about their future but this wasn't exactly a home run either.

So just an overall ok / solid launch. Its QD highest launch but also their most expensive title to make by a good margin
Thank you for your perspective!
 

nib95

Member
Oct 28, 2017
10,302
In regards to the buzz around FH4, the announce trailer for it is already nearing 2.5 million while the announce trailer for FH3 from its E3 is still only at 1 million.

FH4 is garnering a ton of attention post E3, especially for a racing title. That plus it being the first Forza game with Game Pass are some indicators it's going to sell extremely well for the current state of the genre
Not just that, but as far as exclusives go, it's basically all the Xbox One has for fall afaik, whereas before that was projected to be split between Crackdown 3 and Ori and the Will of Wisps too. Plus it will probably be one of the highest rated Xbox One games out there. Could do some seriously impressive numbers, very likely higher than any prior Forza release.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,130
I really don't know how they are supposed to estimate the downloads of a console game, but here is SuperData Research take about Detroit launch (worldwide)

Sony continues to prove single-player exclusives fair well with Detroit: Become Human, the latest in series of successful Sony releases. Sony’s new sci-fi title sold 291,000 digital units at launch in May, a solid reception for a console-exclusive and new IP.
 
Nov 2, 2017
2,151
Italy
I really don't know how they are supposed to estimate the downloads of a console game, but here is SuperData Research take about Detroit launch (worldwide)
As always, this is Super data, which never got really precise estimate. So do not ignore this but don't expect this to be very accurate.

Benji how is Smash tracking right now and what are your expectations for the game ? Could it beat Brawl's opening month ?

Thank you very much.
I would be REALLY surprised if it doesn't.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,130
As always, this is Super data, which never got really precise estimate. So do not ignore this but don't expect this to be very accurate.
Absolutely, I don't bite so much into estimates, especially when they pretend to know what's happening with a single player game in the PlayStation Store. That being said, this report was used by Nirolak to create a thread about Pokemon Go, that's how I noted the Detroit part.
 

pswii60

Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,242
UK
Not just that, but as far as exclusives go, it's basically all the Xbox One has for fall afaik, whereas before that was projected to be split between Crackdown 3 and Ori and the Will of Wisps too. Plus it will probably be one of the highest rated Xbox One games out there. Could do some seriously impressive numbers, very likely higher than any prior Forza release.
What has being exclusive got to do with anything though? It's not like XBO owners only buy exclusives and there's plenty of big third party releases like RDR2.
 

X1 Two

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
3,023
How can you track something that is dead?

Nah, it may well be ‘tracking’ to an extent, but the number is so minuscule that it doesn’t have any profound effect on the overhaul monthly rankings. If you pop into the Media Create thread, however, you shall be pleased to see that the PS Vita is alive and well!



Wow...

At this moment in time:

Average PlayStation console sells ~105 million
Average Nintendo (home) console sells ~ 43 million
And for good measure, the average Xbox console sells ~ 48 million

The takeaway from these numbers?

Sony should stick to their home consoles, Nintendo should stick with portable goodness and Microsoft should just, uh... carry on, I guess.
Averages over so few data points are ... pointless.
 

Snake Eater

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,226
State of Decay 2 topping the charts has to be the shock of the century, I've heard and read nothing but horrible things about this game. Also graphically looks terrible
 

JSG87

Member
Mar 13, 2018
566
Not This only


Look at the List
  • Genesis: Alpha One (PC, PS4, Xbox One) – September 4
  • Dragon Quest 11: Echoes of an Elusive Age (PC, PS4) – September 4
  • Destiny 2: Forsaken (PC, PS4, Xbox One) – September 4
  • Zone of the Enders: The 2nd Runner Mars (PC, PS4, PS VR, Steam VR) – September 6
  • Marvel’s Spider-Man (PS4) – September 7
  • NBA Live 19 (PS4, Xbox One) – September 7
  • Immortal: Unchained (PC, PS4, Xbox One) – September 7
  • NBA 2K19 (PC, PS4, Xbox One, Switch) – September 11
  • Shadow of the Tomb Raider (PC, PS4, Xbox One) – September 14
  • Black Clover Quartet Knight (PC, PS4) – September 14
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 2: Torna ~ The Golden Country DLC (Switch) – September 14
  • Spyro Reignited Trilogy (PS4, Xbox One) – September 21
  • 8-Bit Armies (PS4, Xbox One) – September 21
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 2: Torna ~ The Golden Country standalone (Switch) – September 21
  • Valkyria Chronicles 4 (PC, PS4, Xbox One, Switch) – September 25
  • Life is Strange 2 (PC, PS4, Xbox One) – September 27
  • Code Vein (PC, PS4, Xbox One) – September 28
  • Dragon Ball FighterZ (Switch) – September 28
  • FIFA 19 (PC, PS4, Xbox One, Switch) – September 29
  • V-Rally 4 (PC, PS4, Xbox One) – September
  • The InnerFriend (PC, PS4, Xbox One) – September
  • Insurgency: Sandstorm (PC) – September
Is v-rally 4 Switch releasing later than the other platforms?
 

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,132
As always, this is Super data, which never got really precise estimate. So do not ignore this but don't expect this to be very accurate.
I have small faint memory of them spawning from Chartz back in a day when I was a active user there long time ago. That is why I was always puzzled how SuperData is regarded as legit data when we know Chartz is bs. Maybe I am just remembering wrong though.
 

nib95

Member
Oct 28, 2017
10,302
What has being exclusive got to do with anything though? It's not like XBO owners only buy exclusives and there's plenty of big third party releases like RDR2.
No, but as even other mods have alluded to on here, whether due to marketing, difference in perception or whatever else, often times exclusives tend to do slightly better on a per single platform basis with certain types of games, comparative to multiplatform stuff of the same genre. I can't see the Xbox One version of The Crew 2 for example doing nearly as well as FH4.
 
Nov 2, 2017
2,151
Italy
I have small faint memory of them spawning from Chartz back in a day when I was a active user there long time ago. That is why I was always puzzled how SuperData is regarded as legit data when we know Chartz is bs. Maybe I am just remembering wrong though.
I remember when i used to be a very active user on Chartz, good times lol.

I plan to comeback tho, recently i was busy and i decided to spend the little time i had on ERA, but on Chartz there are some great person who also have knowledge of some markets. (elso they do a great work for Amazon and COMG threads)