NPD May 2018: State of Decay 2 #1 software, PS4 tops hardware charts

Snake Eater

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,798
State of Decay 2 topping the charts has to be the shock of the century, I've heard and read nothing but horrible things about this game. Also graphically looks terrible
 

JSG87

Member
Mar 13, 2018
571
Not This only


Look at the List
  • Genesis: Alpha One (PC, PS4, Xbox One) – September 4
  • Dragon Quest 11: Echoes of an Elusive Age (PC, PS4) – September 4
  • Destiny 2: Forsaken (PC, PS4, Xbox One) – September 4
  • Zone of the Enders: The 2nd Runner Mars (PC, PS4, PS VR, Steam VR) – September 6
  • Marvel’s Spider-Man (PS4) – September 7
  • NBA Live 19 (PS4, Xbox One) – September 7
  • Immortal: Unchained (PC, PS4, Xbox One) – September 7
  • NBA 2K19 (PC, PS4, Xbox One, Switch) – September 11
  • Shadow of the Tomb Raider (PC, PS4, Xbox One) – September 14
  • Black Clover Quartet Knight (PC, PS4) – September 14
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 2: Torna ~ The Golden Country DLC (Switch) – September 14
  • Spyro Reignited Trilogy (PS4, Xbox One) – September 21
  • 8-Bit Armies (PS4, Xbox One) – September 21
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 2: Torna ~ The Golden Country standalone (Switch) – September 21
  • Valkyria Chronicles 4 (PC, PS4, Xbox One, Switch) – September 25
  • Life is Strange 2 (PC, PS4, Xbox One) – September 27
  • Code Vein (PC, PS4, Xbox One) – September 28
  • Dragon Ball FighterZ (Switch) – September 28
  • FIFA 19 (PC, PS4, Xbox One, Switch) – September 29
  • V-Rally 4 (PC, PS4, Xbox One) – September
  • The InnerFriend (PC, PS4, Xbox One) – September
  • Insurgency: Sandstorm (PC) – September
Is v-rally 4 Switch releasing later than the other platforms?
 

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,269
As always, this is Super data, which never got really precise estimate. So do not ignore this but don't expect this to be very accurate.
I have small faint memory of them spawning from Chartz back in a day when I was a active user there long time ago. That is why I was always puzzled how SuperData is regarded as legit data when we know Chartz is bs. Maybe I am just remembering wrong though.
 

nib95

Member
Oct 28, 2017
11,308
What has being exclusive got to do with anything though? It's not like XBO owners only buy exclusives and there's plenty of big third party releases like RDR2.
No, but as even other mods have alluded to on here, whether due to marketing, difference in perception or whatever else, often times exclusives tend to do slightly better on a per single platform basis with certain types of games, comparative to multiplatform stuff of the same genre. I can't see the Xbox One version of The Crew 2 for example doing nearly as well as FH4.
 
Nov 2, 2017
2,296
Italy
I have small faint memory of them spawning from Chartz back in a day when I was a active user there long time ago. That is why I was always puzzled how SuperData is regarded as legit data when we know Chartz is bs. Maybe I am just remembering wrong though.
I remember when i used to be a very active user on Chartz, good times lol.

I plan to comeback tho, recently i was busy and i decided to spend the little time i had on ERA, but on Chartz there are some great person who also have knowledge of some markets. (elso they do a great work for Amazon and COMG threads)
 

Panic Freak

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,949
State of Decay 2 topping the charts has to be the shock of the century, I've heard and read nothing but horrible things about this game. Also graphically looks terrible
You must not be digging too deeply then. The first game was really well received by gamers and it became the best selling XBLA game of all time in a very short window.
 

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,119
Very nice list. I'd think that Assassin's Creed might outsell Spider-Man due to it being multiplatform and probably garnering good reception. But I wouldnt be surprised if SM still trumps it.
I'm sure I'll get more than a couple things wrong, the gaps between titles on the lower end of the list is so small that placement doesn't really matter that much. AC making the list wouldn't be a huge surprise, although AC:O missed the top 10 entirely last year and this year's slate has arguably much higher sales potential overall.
 

lmcfigs

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
7,298
I'm not sure if there's any reason to believe BF5 will outsell Far Cry w/ so many releases around it.
 

Y2Kev

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,632
Look Detroit is a mega global smash hit phenomenon and the order 2 is being made by polyphony digital as we speak.
 

Peek-a-boo!

Member
Oct 30, 2017
1,684
Woodbridge
Averages over so few data points are ... pointless.
Well, apart from the PlayStation 3, two PlayStation consoles are over 100 million and the PlayStation 4 is definitely going to pass that milestone too, therefore the average works out pretty well for the PlayStation home consoles.

Nintendo have always had a portable and home system to support and develop games for so, showing the average for their home consoles tells us that their portable market is the one that is worth them pursuing, hence the hybrid nature of the Switch as well as continuing to make the odd game or two on the 3DS.

Xbox One is likely to hit somewhere in the region of ~50 million so, again, that’s a pretty good average to look at especially considering it only does well in both the US and the UK respectively. The Xbox 360 remains an outlier due to the frontloaded popularity of Kinect and being the cheaper alternative (between the PlayStation 3) for an entire generation.

Few data points? Maybe. Pretty close average numbers all told? Yes.
 

Noobie

Member
Oct 28, 2017
611
Look Detroit is a mega global smash hit phenomenon and the order 2 is being made by polyphony digital as we speak.
nah, my sources say that Media Molecule has been assigned the task to make the next super smash hit The Order 2, with cuddly character and user defined objectives and random dynamic creation. It will explode our minds and will cause start of the end of the civilization. jk
 

slavesnyder

Member
Oct 26, 2017
878
SlaveSnyder Media Corp.
nah, my sources say that Media Molecule has been assigned the task to make the next super smash hit The Order 2, with cuddly character and user defined objectives and random dynamic creation. It will explode our minds and will cause start of the end of the civilization. jk
the order 2 will be called The Order: B.L.T. (buyable lengthy teaser) and will surprisingly introduce Knacks, a gritty reboot of the beloved franchise, directed by kojima and werner herzog.
 

v_iHuGi

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
5,155
I have small faint memory of them spawning from Chartz back in a day when I was a active user there long time ago. That is why I was always puzzled how SuperData is regarded as legit data when we know Chartz is bs. Maybe I am just remembering wrong though.
Super Data only tracks digital, those are Digital only estimates.
 

fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
11,738
Yep, Sony sold cca 120 million home consoles more than Nintendo despite Nintendo releasing 3 extra home consoles and being on market 10 years before Sony:

PS1+PS2+PS3+PS4 = 420 million
NES+SNES+N64+NGC+Wii+WiiU+Switch = 300 million
I’d probably separate Switch as it’s really something else. More people use it portably than stationary too.

Nintendo
home: 289m
portable: 427m
hybrid: 18m

PlayStation
home: 420m
portable: 92m

Actually I’m surprised Nintendo handhelds outsold Sony home consoles despite only launching 5 years earlier and both being 4 gens of hardware. PS4 will move Sony ahead in the end but it’s strange they’re this close given the perception around each.
 
Last edited:
Nov 4, 2017
1,926
Good on SoD2 for snagging top spot, I didn't expect that. And those God of War legs etc.

But where's the Dark Souls Remastered? This isn't a good look for you people.
 

Primethius

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,260
I’d probably separate Switch as it’s really something else. More people use it portably than stationary too.

Nintendo
home: 289m
portable: 427m
hybrid: 18m

PlayStation
home: 420m
portable: 92m

Actually I’m surprised Nintendo handhelds outsold Sony home consoles despite only launching 4 years earlier and both being 4 gens of hardware. PS4 will move Sony ahead in the end but it’s strange they’re this close given the perception around each.
I don't understand why that's surprising? What is the perception around each? Haven't Nintendo handhelds always been considered massive beasts? Same number of gens and launching a bit earlier?
 

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,269
I’d probably separate Switch as it’s really something else. More people use it portably than stationary too.

Nintendo
home: 289m
portable: 427m
hybrid: 18m

PlayStation
home: 420m
portable: 92m

Actually I’m surprised Nintendo handhelds outsold Sony home consoles despite only launching 4 years earlier and both being 4 gens of hardware. PS4 will move Sony ahead in the end but it’s strange they’re this close given the perception around each.
Small correction but more like five and half years earlier. GameBoy launched in April 1989 in japan and original Playstation in December 1994 in Japan.
 

MrTired

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,599
I’d probably separate Switch as it’s really something else. More people use it portably than stationary too.

Nintendo
home: 289m
portable: 427m
hybrid: 18m

PlayStation
home: 420m
portable: 92m

Actually I’m surprised Nintendo handhelds outsold Sony home consoles despite only launching 4 years earlier and both being 4 gens of hardware. PS4 will move Sony ahead in the end but it’s strange they’re this close given the perception around each.
Your surprised that Nintendo's sold more portable hardware when it started releasing 4 years before Sony's first console. Really? Even though portable hardware is usually sold cheap than the console of the same generation. I'm surprised that Sony's home console total is so close to Nintendo's portable console sales.
 
Nov 4, 2017
1,926
I’d probably separate Switch as it’s really something else. More people use it portably than stationary too.

Nintendo
home: 289m
portable: 427m
hybrid: 18m

PlayStation
home: 420m
portable: 92m

Actually I’m surprised Nintendo handhelds outsold Sony home consoles despite only launching 4 years earlier and both being 4 gens of hardware. PS4 will move Sony ahead in the end but it’s strange they’re this close given the perception around each.
I'm not that surprised considering that the handhelds are a lot cheaper, they're easier to lose/break (thereby necessitating replacement) and are prime candidates for double-dipping when improved hardware revisions come along (seriously, did anybody who bought that hideous OG DS not eventually upgrade to a delicious lite or DSi?).
 

Bran Van

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
1,540
In regards to the buzz around FH4, the announce trailer for it is already nearing 2.5 million while the announce trailer for FH3 from its E3 is still only at 1 million.

FH4 is garnering a ton of attention post E3, especially for a racing title. That plus it being the first Forza game with Game Pass are some indicators it's going to sell extremely well for the current state of the genre
Do YouTube trailer views mean much? I believe quite a few around E3 were inflated by advertising - or so some users were tracking
 

Renna Hazel

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,616
I remain one of the most bullish analysts in the industry on Switch, Pokemon and Smash.

Leaving them off the top 10 list in a year with games like we have this year isn't downplaying any of them. Especially since we don't have digital in the tracking for Nintendo, Pokemon having two games (which always impacts its rankings) and the Dec 7 release for Smash. All will be very successful for a very long time.
Will Pokemon's bundle with the Pokeball be counted towards total revenue for the game?
 

StevieP

Member
Oct 27, 2017
598
I'm not that surprised considering that the handhelds are a lot cheaper, they're easier to lose/break (thereby necessitating replacement) and are prime candidates for double-dipping when improved hardware revisions come along (seriously, did anybody who bought that hideous OG DS not eventually upgrade to a delicious lite or DSi?).
If you really want to go down this road, how many ps1, ps2s and 360s "don't count"? Or now with our mid Gen refreshes in the mix, how many ps4s do we want discard? I'd love some numbers
 

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,269
Yes, I just caught that too! Ack! -_-;
Well to the your original point. Hardware sales are indeed rather similar but if we look at the software sales maybe that is where the somewhat different perception comes from. PS1 and PS2 combined have shipped more software than all Nintendo handhelds put together. Add PS3 and PS4 and the difference is massive.
 

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,119
Im a bit late, but couldnt this be more of a plus to be an entry-friendly, "go-related" title with less complex features? I know its difficult to predict anyway.
Definitely. And given the latest increases in the Pokemon Go user base I could be completely missing the potential upside. However, my forecast is already pretty high given Switch projected installed base and franchise historicals... I don't know sometimes it feels like throwing at a dart board will deliver as good a prediction as anything.

Will Pokemon's bundle with the Pokeball be counted towards total revenue for the game?
It should, but I'm not 100% certain on how this package will be categorized yet.

Do YouTube trailer views mean much?
Sometimes, but I find google trends more directionally helpful personally.

RIP my mentions.
 
Nov 4, 2017
1,926
If you really want to go down this road, how many ps1, ps2s and 360s "don't count"? Or now with our mid Gen refreshes in the mix, how many ps4s do we want discard? I'd love some numbers
I'm not trying to say they don't count, I'm just saying there are plenty of reasons for Nintendo handhelds to sell so well (on top of being excellent devices with killer libraries).
 

Emilijo

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
494
I’d probably separate Switch as it’s really something else. More people use it portably than stationary too.

Nintendo
home: 289m
portable: 427m
hybrid: 18m

PlayStation
home: 420m
portable: 92m

Actually I’m surprised Nintendo handhelds outsold Sony home consoles despite only launching 5 years earlier and both being 4 gens of hardware. PS4 will move Sony ahead in the end but it’s strange they’re this close given the perception around each.
In conclusion:

Sony sold 510 million units with 6 consoles which is average 85 million per console

Nintendo sold 720 million units with 11 consoles which is average 65 million per console
 

shark97

Member
Nov 7, 2017
3,448
For shits and giggles Imma spitball MS in there. Portable obviously zero. Home: Xbox~25m, Xbox 360 ~85m, Xbox One ~40m. ~150m. If you wanna quibble that Xbox One is 35 m (I'd disagree) well OTOH 360 could have pushed close to 90m, (I recall last figure they gave was 84) so whatever it cancels out and still~150m


Nintendo
home: 289m
portable: 427m
hybrid: 18m

PlayStation
home: 420m
portable: 92m


Xbox
Home: 150m
Portable: 0/NA

I mean, comparing that to iconic Nintendo's home total over a longer period actually doesn't look too bad. But I'd rather not really go there, it's just for fun.
 

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,269
I remember when i used to be a very active user on Chartz, good times lol.

I plan to comeback tho, recently i was busy and i decided to spend the little time i had on ERA, but on Chartz there are some great person who also have knowledge of some markets. (elso they do a great work for Amazon and COMG threads)
I was also active user there back in a day (joined 2006...damn times flies) before I switched to GAF around 2011/2012 and now very rarely take a peek there. While sites own numbers are bs I also remember that some users shared some real data that you couldn't even find from GAF so it was nice in that way.
 

Django.Mango

Member
Jan 31, 2018
802
Definitely. And given the latest increases in the Pokemon Go user base I could be completely missing the potential upside. However, my forecast is already pretty high given Switch projected installed base and franchise historicals... I don't know sometimes it feels like throwing at a dart board will deliver as good a prediction as anything.
Thanks for your response. Defenitely will be interesting to observe. Keep up the good work.
 

Emilijo

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
494
For shits and giggles Imma spitball MS in there. Portable obviously zero. Home: Xbox~25m, Xbox 360 ~85m, Xbox One ~40m. ~150m. If you wanna quibble that Xbox One is 35 m (I'd disagree) well OTOH 360 could have pushed close to 90m, (I recall last figure they gave was 84) so whatever it cancels out and still~150m


Nintendo
home: 289m
portable: 427m
hybrid: 18m

PlayStation
home: 420m
portable: 92m


Xbox
Home: 150m
Portable: 0/NA

I mean, comparing that to iconic Nintendo's home total over a longer period actually doesn't look too bad. But I'd rather not really go there, it's just for fun.
Sony's Home Consoles average: 105 million
Microsoft's Home Consoles average: 50 million
Nintendo's Home Consoles average: 48 million

So even Xbox has higher average than Ninteno's home consoles.