NPD May 2019: MK11 #1, Days Gone #2, Total War #3, Rage2 #4. Switch #1 HW.

[Zedark]

Feel pretty confident that M+R is at least above 3m WW. Maybe 4.


it'd only be behind BiS and SPM in terms of mario rpgs LTD sales if so

edit:
Can we assume everything on NSW's top 10 LTD has sold over 1 million physically in the US? I'd believe so.

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We know that NSMBUDX did 30% more in its first month than NSMBU in dollar sales, and the latter did 243k. Assuming both cost the same (that's true, right?), NSMBUDX did 316k first month. That was back in January. Would it have done more than twice that number in the 4 months that followed? I'm not sure tbh.

 

[Mory Dunz]

We know that NSMBUDX did 30% more in its first month than NSMBU in dollar sales, and the latter did 243k. Assuming both cost the same (that's true, right?), NSMBUDX did 316k first month. That was back in January. Would it have done more than twice that number in the 4 months that followed? I'm not sure tbh.

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true, I should take out physically. Plus digital I think they are.

I just don't see NSMU shipping 3.31 million WW by 3/31 and not having 1m in the US by 5/31.

but yea, might need digital for my statement.

 

[WestEgg]

Interesting. I wonder if BotW is close to passing Mario Odyssey LTD WW. That would be unprecedented I believe for a 3D Zelda title to come out ahead of a 3D Mario on the same system. I didn't think it would happen a year ago, but BotW seems to be keeping stronger legs and now it seems like it a matter of time. And considering that Odyssey is no slouch either, that's crazy.

 

[Deleted member 2145]

"Seeing tons of evidence this is selling to consumers that never played the first game."

you think?

 

[Zedark]

"Seeing tons of evidence this is selling to consumers that never played the first game."

you think?

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I feel like that is a hypallage: "Seeing evidence this is selling to tons of consumers that never played the first game" seems to be the intended message in my view.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Interesting. I wonder if BotW is close to passing Mario Odyssey LTD WW. That would be unprecedented I believe for a 3D Zelda title to come out ahead of a 3D Mario on the same system. I didn't think it would happen a year ago, but BotW seems to be keeping stronger legs and now it seems like it a matter of time. And considering that Odyssey is no slouch either, that's crazy.

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WW?

you know we get public Nintendo sales quarterly right.
sometimes I see people ask questions about X nintendo game, and I'm like, it's all there on the website, or Celine's thread. Or the quarterly threads

IR Information : Sales Data - Top Selling Title Sales Units

www.nintendo.co.jp

The last fiscal year, BOTW sold 4.3m
Odyssey sold 4.04m

BOTW won't pass Odyssey imo. It'd have to sell a lot more than Odyssey from now.

Sequel timing for both games will be interesting, (even thought I think BOTW has no chance regardless.)
I wonder when Odyssey's sequel will be announced and released. I originally said 2020.

 

[WestEgg]

WW?

you know we get public Nintendo sales quarterly right.
sometimes I see people ask questions about X nintendo game, and I'm like, it's all there on the website, or Celine's thread. Or the quarterly threads

IR Information : Sales Data - Top Selling Title Sales Units

www.nintendo.co.jp

The last fiscal year, BOTW sold 4.3m
Odyssey sold 4.04m

BOTW won't pass Odyssey imo. It'd have to sell a lot more than Odyssey from now.

Sequel timing for both games will be interesting, (even thought I think BOTW has no chance regardless.)
I wonder when Odyssey's sequel will be announced and released. I originally said 2020.

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Yeah, I know we get quarterly updates, was just curious if with BotW slowly creeping ahead of Odyssey's monthly sales as time goes by if there's enough fuel in the tank for it to go all the way.

 

[Deleted member 2145]

I feel like that is a hypallage: "Seeing evidence this is selling to tons of consumers that never played the first game" seems to be the intended message in my view.

Click to shrink...

yeah I was just having a hearty chuckle that that was a newsworthy point instead of a given. the Switch has now, what, doubled the Wii U's LTD? more? of course it's selling to people who never played the game. just thought it was funny, is all

 

[Mory Dunz]

Yeah, I know we get quarterly updates, was just curious if with BotW slowly creeping ahead of Odyssey's monthly sales as time goes by if there's enough fuel in the tank for it to go all the way.

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oh.
The issue is Odyssey sells more at Christmas to diminish some of the ground BOTW makes up.

looking it up,
in Q3 last FY, Odyssey old 1.59m. BOTW did 1.4m.

I think BOTW outsold odyssey for the majority of the other quarters until that.

But overall it's just not doing enough to creep up imo.
Especially if BOTW2 comes out before SMO2. I personally still think SMO2 will come out before BOTW2 even though BOTW2 is announced. lol call me crazy.

 

[Mory Dunz]

yeah I was just having a hearty chuckle that that was a newsworthy point instead of a given. the Switch has now, what, doubled the Wii U's LTD? more? of course it's selling to people who never played the game. just thought it was funny, is all

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if you mean WW, closer to tripled.
lol, sad.

 

[night814]

oh.
The issue is Odyssey sells more at Christmas to diminish some of the ground BOTW makes up.

looking it up,
in Q3 last FY, Odyssey old 1.59m. BOTW did 1.4m.

I think BOTW outsold odyssey for the majority of the other quarters until that.

But overall it's just not doing enough to creep up imo.
Especially if BOTW2 comes out before SMO2. I personally still think SMO2 will come out before BOTW2 even though BOTW2 is announced. lol call me crazy.

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Not crazy at all, Mario Odyssey was released only like 9 months or so after it's reveal. I expect if there is a direct sequel in the same vein as say Galaxy 2 it will be revealed and released in the same year. Where as Zelda always seems to have a big gap in between it's reveal and release for new 3D games.

 

[IronTed]

oh.
The issue is Odyssey sells more at Christmas to diminish some of the ground BOTW makes up.

looking it up,
in Q3 last FY, Odyssey old 1.59m. BOTW did 1.4m.

I think BOTW outsold odyssey for the majority of the other quarters until that.

But overall it's just not doing enough to creep up imo.
Especially if BOTW2 comes out before SMO2. I personally still think SMO2 will come out before BOTW2 even though BOTW2 is announced. lol call me crazy.

Click to shrink...

Agreed, though if you include with Wii U version, BoTW is at 14.38 million, narrowly behind Odyssey (14.44). But Switch-only I don't think BoTW will ever get ahead.

 

[Skittzo]

yeah I was just having a hearty chuckle that that was a newsworthy point instead of a given. the Switch has now, what, doubled the Wii U's LTD? more? of course it's selling to people who never played the game. just thought it was funny, is all

Click to shrink...

The game did also release on the 3DS to be fair.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Not crazy at all, Mario Odyssey was released only like 9 months or so after it's reveal. I expect if there is a direct sequel in the same vein as say Galaxy 2 it will be revealed and released in the same year. Where as Zelda always seems to have a big gap in between it's reveal and release for new 3D games.

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Yup,
Personal prediction:

BOTW2 is next seen at TGAs, gets "Fall 2020" or maybe just "2020" window, but we all know it means fall.
Sometime in 2020 it gets delayed and it comes out in March 2021.

SMO2. It could be revealed in Sept 2019 direct, or Spring 2020 direct, releases in october or November 2020.

Agreed, though if you include with Wii U version, BoTW is at 14.38 million, narrowly behind Odyssey (14.44). But Switch-only I don't think BoTW will ever get ahead.

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Oh yeah, I was assuming he meant only Switch.
But if it includes Wii U, it seems BOTW can surpass it

 

[ShinobiBk]

I think BOTW is coming next FY. Zell told us a while ago it was planned for 2020 I thought?

 

[Deleted member 2145]

The game did also release on the 3DS to be fair.

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yeah that's true

anyway I just had a nice chuckle at the wording of that point and it's really not anything more than that

 

[WestEgg]

I think BOTW is coming next FY. Zell told us a while ago it was planned for 2020 I thought?

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It always struck me as the game Nintendo would want to have on the shelves Holiday 2020 when Scarlett/PS5 launches, and having Odyssey 2 at the same would be icing on the cake.

 

[Mory Dunz]

I think BOTW is coming next FY. Zell told us a while ago it was planned for 2020 I thought?

Click to shrink...

Yeah, I just think it'll get delayed.

But hit the FY in March.

 

[Deleted member 37233]

Yeah, I just think it'll get delayed.

But hit the FY in March.

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Animal Crossing Style.

 

[Turbo Tu-Tone]

Days Gone with a fresh serving of crow to the naysayers.

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I'll clear my plate, because I honestly thought this would be the first big AAA release from Sony that didn't chart well. Damn thing came in under MK11. Been watching my friend stream it and it's not a bad game at all. Congrats to Bend Studios.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Next 3D Mario is gonna be ready for 2020 Holidays.

Doubt TGAs are gonna get BotW2 footage - Nintendo is gonna keep that for the next e3.

 

[DevilMayGuy]

Crazy SMM2 word of mouth and sales. I probably need to pick it up.

 

[Deleted member 37233]

Doubt TGAs are gonna get BotW2 footage - Nintendo is gonna keep that for the next e3.

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They could unveil the logo with another trailer at TGA and reveal gameplay and a release date at E3.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Next 3D Mario is gonna be ready for 2020 Holidays.

Doubt TGAs are gonna get BotW2 footage - Nintendo is gonna keep that for the next e3.

Click to shrink...

Unless the game is a few years away, I don't think we'll go that long without seeing it.

Reveal already showed footage which was a nice surprise. And hopefully indicates it's coming soonish

TGAs had first real footage in 2014.
Then a trailer in 2016 that revealed Zelda.
And gameplay session in 2016
Then 2017 had the DLC annnouncement and shadow drop.

unless the game is a few years off, we're definitely seeing it before E3 2020 imo.
The Game Awards has a long history with BOTW.
In fact, it seems like Nintendo's most highlighted game at TGA by far.

If not TGA, then the spring direct,
but I'll say TGA personally.

Can't see it waiting until e3, again unless it's a while off.

 

[PortisheadBiscuit]

Was at Target to get SMM2 and they were completely out of the Switch Online bundle, Best Buy only had two left. Anecdotal, but possibly a nice increase in online subscriptions.

 

[PortisheadBiscuit]

Top 10 software per platform through May 2019 from Mat:

Spoiler

It's a shame Switch chart shows third party games sell badly. Where are massive third party titles like Ultra Street Fighter 2?

On a more serious note, SMP passed Splatoon 2. It's a massive success, and should easily hit 10M worldwide. Smash taking second place in lifetime sales on Switch is also huge, and it could very well hit no. 1 imo.

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Other than MK8D and BOTW being absolute juggernauts, SMP is the biggest surprise in terms of sales to me.