I saw a ton of PS4 commercials last month. Nintendo was better than I thought they would be.
I think it is the Xbox base. The same for Pro.
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NPD November 2017: Call of duty WW2 #1 SW, PS4 #1 HW
- Thread starter ZhugeEX
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Makes sense. When the PS4 released we already knew the X was coming. For those looking for the most powerful console I'm guessing a lot of them held out for the X. The Pro was just a stop gap.
Using 800k for Switch this month, and assuming the attach rate was 1:4 at the end of the tracking period as well, then Switch was at 3.4 million, and Splatoon 2 at 850k. A leak for the first month (July) gave us 332k. Looking at prior months, and how Splatoon 2 dropped in those months, and estimating some very rough ideas about numbers from those, I can see it having sold 1:4 this November. 200k might be reasonable as a prediction. That would mean good things for Skyrim, since ranking between the 200k and (likely) the 400k+ of MK8D (since MK8D sold to >50% of the userbase) just with retail sales is a very good result, better than I had anticipated myself.
We still don't have a third party game on Switch that has sold 1M physical worldwide, right? I'd guess Minecraft has, but we haven't heard whether or not Mario + Rabbids reached that number right?
It would be kind of amazing if Skyrim is the first physical title to reach that number.
The PS4 was $249 bundled from retailers for BF 2016. From Sony in December 2016 it was $299 bundled. So I'm not sure what you mean by "same if not better." Not to mention that holiday was a different scenario than this one given they just launched 3 new pieces of hardware. Vs this year where theyre competing with 2 new pieces of hardware. And the XB1 was $189 on BF at it's lowest official price.
I feel pretty confident that M+R will have passed the 1 million mark already, since it's been selling consistently. Still, Skyrim seems poised to pass the 1 million mark, and that is a pretty good result for a late port of a remaster of Skyrim, I think.
https://blog.us.playstation.com/201...undle-249-99-december-11-through-december-24/
This deal lasted 2 weeks as well compared to the one week this year.
gotcha. I'm more mad about people calling me crazy or ridiculus tho than just people disagreeing with me. This has been the same since years, and i'm honestly bored.
John Harker
Thanks as always.
2 uncertainties, if you would like to clarify them it would be appreciated. If not it's fine, too and just be silent.
Xbox One X sold >65% more than Ps4 Pro this month or the respective Ps4 Pro launch last year?
You said both Xbox One and Ps4 had their best months ever, the NPD release made the distinction between Ps4 best ever month and Xb1 best November. Do i read to much into that? :D
Good to have you here.
Thanks as always.
2 uncertainties, if you would like to clarify them it would be appreciated. If not it's fine, too and just be silent.
Xbox One X sold >65% more than Ps4 Pro this month or the respective Ps4 Pro launch last year?
You said both Xbox One and Ps4 had their best months ever, the NPD release made the distinction between Ps4 best ever month and Xb1 best November. Do i read to much into that? :D
Good to have you here.
When do you expect that you'll be able to include micro-transaction revenue into the equation?
Sony drop the price to $249 in december of 2016 too.
Also, the $189 deal for XBO S remains going on.
500GB.Sony drop the price to $249 in december of 2016 too.
Also, the $189 deal for XBO S remains going on.
Do we know what numbers they did last December?Sony drop the price to $249 in december of 2016 too.
Also, the $189 deal for XBO S remains going on.
I guess it's on track to be the first third party game not featuring Mario* to reach 1M. I'm more curious where DOOM's LTD will wind up, since at least Skyrim and BotW have a bit of genre overlap going on.
*Even if it does have his voice actor
We SHOULD know, but at this point we really can't know if we can trust those numbers...
The last estimate we had was 1,568,000, but we can't know if this estimate is legit.
M+R will be first.
second might be bomberman.
or skyrim. I assume stuff like SFII stopped selling as fast.
why only retail though? Digital can't be included?
I was talking revenue...and if you take into account Switch, 3DS, and SNES Classic...plus Nintendo had 1st party software that actually charted, they couldve be produced more revenue...and profit.
I only said retail because we won't know digital sales for most games, so it's easier to compare retail to retail.
Not that we know retail for Skyrim, but it's at least a bit easier to estimate.
Like around 1.5 mil.
I doubt it reaches the same this time around as people got a taste for that $199.
My point is that same deal of november of 2016 happened in december 2016 too. The time when BF had better deals than december is gone.
You must rememb that 332,000 is withouth digital.
The 1:4 ratio from Nintendo, must include it. Honestly considering the digital ratio Splatoon 1 had on Wii U (165K first month, 136K retail, 17% digital), is very likely Splatoon 2 did over 400K first month.
Well, to be honest i agree that November probabily has Splatoon 2 at 200K or more, but mostly i think the 1:4 ratio lifetime is surely rounded.
Look at Mario Odyssey, we have estimate who put him over Star Wars at retail, which sold almost 900k witouth digital, so Mario Odyssey is at least at >900K this month (probabily one million), and LT sales are confirmed above 2 million right now, yet Reggie talked about a 50% attach rate, which would only put Mario Odyssey at 1.7 million.
Anyway, Skyrim first month on Switch is very good, nothing to say here. So far third party on Switch are doing very good, this is a good sign for the future support!
They don't have PSVR numbers, but it's still the best selling premium headset.
Didn't it have more sales than launch or similiar in November?
Herp? Derp? Derp.
Sony just announced that they hit a 2M unit milestone for PSVR on December 7th.
NPD not sharing PSVR numbers doesn't mean they don't track those...
Who do you mean by they?
We track PSVR sales. But when you're talking about a peripheral with a sub 3% attach rate what's there to really talk about when discussing the market moving products in a month?
You guys, you don't give PSVR numbers so I don't know why he would think it's dead.
That said, saying "have" does give a different interpretation now that I see it.
Are the publishers even more hesitant to share that date with your company and in the end even other publishers, or do they want to go into the inevitable future of game sales tracking?
2 million units sold.
December just got a big promotion.
So either PSVR was never alive or it's not dead.
I'm not sure where you got those estimates from, but I'm curious?
By my estimation w/out digital, we're just over 100k
Well, and that does seem to be the question. 2 million over a year doesnt seem impressive at all, but...I guess its all relative?
I'm curious how the PSVR bundles did. Sony was pretty aggressive with them. Of course, since NPD won't release sales numbers (to the public), I guess there isn't much to say, officially. Maybe we'll get a leak or Sony will say something.
Well, Reggie listed SMO in the list of games with an attach rate of over 50%, so that doesn't prove him or our estimates wrong.
I found the following nugget when I went through Nintendo PR for the US:
Source: https://www.businesswire.com/news/h...-News-Nintendo-Switch-Best-Selling-Video-Game
So, digital for MK8D was about 16%, at least at its launch. If we use that as a guidance number, then Splatoon 2 did around 386k including digital first month. If we use it as a factor to decrease our numbers, then 170k < Skyrim < 345k, with rough approximations, of course. As you said, still a good result.
Yup, I know. I'm wondering specifically about the BF bundles.
Or maybe it exists in a grey area in between alive and dead. Some kind of zombie peripheral.
Okay great. I really look forward to see the "full picture" soon.
I don't think it's finalized yet, but will MTX more likely be added as a new category, or just added to the games $ sales?
I think this is most importantly a factor as some titles (especially F2P) would have no or low game sales, but a very healthy amount of revenue generated via MTX late in the life of the product.
I'm sure you guys will find out the best way to do and report it.
Exciting times ahead.
Switch HW sales Nov = ~800k
50% > Splatoon tie ratio >= 25% (cf Reggie)
November bigger than the 3 post Splatoon launch month --> tie ratio of Splatoon for November > 20%. (or else the tie ratio would be too badly impacted).
Skyrim over Splatoon 2 in November but under Zelda.
==> Skyrim > 20%*800k =160k which is the minimum estimated.
With digital Skyrim should be well over 200k.
ok numbers for the xbox one x. Obviously being that the xbox one was so underpowered people who owned that system would rush out to get the X, more than the people who have ps4's to the pro. more people are content with their PS4 purchase than xbox one users were.
Folks buying the Switch (based on my own anecdotal evidence) are guys (late thirties, early forties) who grew up with Nintendo, nostalgia played a very big part in their purchase, and they bought it mainly to play the Mario's and Zelda's.
Sony drop the price to $249 in december of 2016 too.
Also, the $189 deal for XBO S remains going on.
That's my fault. I had the wrong December. 2015 it was $299 bundled. Granted, the scenarios are still different. $199 unbundled in their eyes = $249 bundled. And the base one was reduced to $249 to match those bundles. BF 2016 also saw additional games included with purchase of the $249 bundle at most big retailers. My point being that it not being = to the BF sale shouldn't be shocking nor should it give ppl reason to think they will have a massive drop vs December. Sorry for the mixup
Well PS4 will probably win December... it is a easier month than November in my opinion.
I will go with over 1.35m.
BF2 bundle $249 will be the best seller SKU.
Just FYI I think you're mixing up "tie ratio" and "attach rate" at least when it comes to terminology. Tie ratio refers to how many games (or products) a consumer has bought per system, and attach rate refers to how many of a single particular product (like a game or accessory) has been bought per system sold.
Also Reggie's quote came from an interview after the 10M Switches sold PR, the period of which was through December 10th. I'm not sure if that affects your calculations at all but it's probably worth noting that this is probably when the attach rates were what he reported (50% for Zelda/Mario/MK8, 25% for Splatoon 2), while the November NPD tracking period ended November 25th.
Mario Party: The Flop 100.
I mean, who's going to buy a Mario Party game on a handheld with no TV functions? Mario Party 10 on Wii U did better than both Island Tour AND Star Rush.
I mean, who's going to buy a Mario Party game on a handheld with no TV functions? Mario Party 10 on Wii U did better than both Island Tour AND Star Rush.
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