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James

Member
Oct 25, 2017
271
US
Switch HW sales Nov = ~800k
50% > Splatoon tie ratio >= 25% (cf Reggie)
November bigger than the 3 post Splatoon launch month --> tie ratio of Splatoon for November > 20%. (or else the tie ratio would be too badly impacted).
Skyrim over Splatoon 2 in November but under Zelda.

==> Skyrim > 20%*800k =160k which is the minimum estimated.

With digital Skyrim should be well over 200k.

Also, you seem to be assuming that all Splatoon sales are physical.
 

rahzel

Member
Oct 27, 2017
452
I expect the Xbox One X to be consistent in December. Maybe a slight drop.

January of course everyone is broke. So It will crater.
I think we'll see a considerable drop in December. November had a few months of pre-orders included.

Anyway, great launch for XB1X. I predicted 450K, so was pretty close.

In December, I'm guessing 250-300K for XB1X.
 

Adventureracing

The Fallen
Nov 7, 2017
8,035
Folks buying the Switch (based on my own anecdotal evidence) are guys (late thirties, early forties) who grew up with Nintendo, nostalgia played a very big part in their purchase, and they bought it mainly to play the Mario's and Zelda's.

Thankfully we have actual evidence which shows switch owners are buying much more than just Mario and Zelda.
 

Adventureracing

The Fallen
Nov 7, 2017
8,035
I know that, but Nintendo first party is what sells the most on the Switch. That's partly because the Switch doesn't have many of the heavy hitters (CoD's, BF's, GTA's and such).

Nintendo has went all out with their first party and released multiple heavy hitters. Not only that but they've all been highly rated and advertised heavily. 3rd parties basically haven't even shown up on switch yet outside of late ports. Im sure 1st party SW will always perform very strongly on switch but late ports were never going to compete with Nintendos big guns.
 

Cranster

Prophet of Truth
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,788
I thought console gaming was dead though?!

Oh wait, if Michael Pachter say's it, then it's wrong!
 

panda-zebra

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 28, 2017
5,737
I expect the Xbox One X to be consistent in December. Maybe a slight drop.

January of course everyone is broke. So It will crater.
What's slight mean here, percentage-wise? Less 5-10%? There was a long, drawn-out build-up to the console's release leading to unprecedented pre-order numbers with a limited edition machine, for those reasons I'm seeing a near 40% drop-off despite December silly season spending, so something in the region of 250k. $500 is pricey for gifting material. PUBG inclusion doesn't move the needle, it's a $30 download code, it's more of a PR/awareness opportunity than anything designed to entice someone to lift the box down from the shelf.

Okay great. I really look forward to see the "full picture" soon.
I don't think it's finalized yet, but will MTX more likely be added as a new category, or just added to the games $ sales?
I think this is most importantly a factor as some titles (especially F2P) would have no or low game sales, but a very healthy amount of revenue generated via MTX late in the life of the product.
I'm sure you guys will find out the best way to do and report it.

Exciting times ahead.
Yeah I'm really interested in seeing how F2P games perform on console, if we can get a look at that, even just relative to other MTX spending, it'd offer some interesting insight.

What would happen if PS4 also won December at 250?
Should we rule out the chance that it'll also come with sweetner coupons at retail?
 

Soony Xbone Uhh

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,156
Maybe Xbox x one will be more front loaded.
Probably. Maybe even likely as the Xbox One X had a bigger push prior release comparted to Ps4 Pro.
Stock will be a big factor, too as Ps4 Pro was supply contrained in December 2016.

We'll see. Could go either way.
I find 430k + decent. I was expecting a bigger launch, so i think December could perform a little better than i initially thought and the total for 2017 will be the same. Just less in November and more in December.
 

N.Domixis

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
9,208
The world will keep spinning.
Gravity will take its second day off in its entire history to witness the NPD results. After which we will go hurdling into the sun. The last thing humanity ever witnessess is the most beautiful blinding sunset/sunrise ever. After which our solar system goes silent once again, waiting for the next sentient beings to evolve.
 

Jom

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,490
lol how do you go from $199 and sometimes with a $50 gift card for a 1tb to $249 for a 500gb PS4. Sales are going to drop off pretty significantly from last month.
 

Stouffers

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
3,924
Probably just anectdotal, but I've witnessed mostly dwarf albino lost-amazonion-tribesmen purchasing the Switch and mainly to play Return of Samus.
 

Vena

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,441
Gravity will take its second day off in its entire history to witness the NPD results. After which we will go hurdling into the sun. The last thing humanity ever witnessess is the most beautiful blinding sunset/sunrise ever. After which our solar system goes silent once again, waiting for the next sentient beings to evolve.

With no gravity, you'd actually never run into the Sun. Instantaneous velocity vector is perpendicular to the normal of the radius of orbit of all planets relative to the Sun. Everything would just fly off into space in a straight line.

This includes the Sun, since the Milky Way would also dissociate in a similar fashion as the Black Hole would lose it's hold over everything.
 

donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
620
for some new jumping into the conversation, is there a resone why NDP dosent suply numbers (estimates for sales) while media creat deos?
I'm sure there's much more detailed financial reasons that we don't see, but one reason is probably competition. Enterbrain/Famitsu have been providing weekly numbers of some type since there were ever numbers to provide. If MC wanted to get a foothold in the tracking in Japan, they couldn't start off with charging for every bit of information. Now Enterbrain/Famitsu and MC also charge for more detailed analysis, used game sales, sales past the top 30/20 each week and past top 100 each year (love the Top 1000 charts out of Japan!), so it's not like they give everything for free. What they do give is great for weekly analysis, though.

One of the financial reasons is probably the cost of getting the data from a geographic region the size of Japan vs. one the size of the U.S. It probably costs more for NPD to get the data from store systems of a much wider area than Japan has. In the same vein, getting sales data for Europe as a whole would be more difficult than Japan, too.

In the end, I think competition is probably the biggest single reason, though. There really isn't an alternative to NPD for tracking U.S. sales. As such, they have great leverage over what they choose to provide or not provide.

With no gravity, you'd actually never run into the Sun. Instantaneous velocity vector is perpendicular to the normal of the radius of orbit of all planets relative to the Sun. Everything would just fly off into space in a straight line.

This includes the Sun, since the Milky Way would also dissociate in a similar fashion as the Black Hole would lose it's hold over everything.
Stupid inertia!
 

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,119
Actually it's a much simpler explanation. We don't "own" the data in the US, the participating publishers and retailers do. Therefore It can't be shared unless authorized.

Back in the day NPD would release tons of data including hw and sw figures. I'd do that again tomorrow if I could. Shrug.

We don't have a good representative sample of albino Saharan tribesman in our consumer panel. I'm beginning to get concerned about this.
 
Oct 25, 2017
15,172
lol how do you go from $199 and sometimes with a $50 gift card for a 1tb to $249 for a 500gb PS4. Sales are going to drop off pretty significantly from last month.
The appeal of that battlefront 2 bundle will be determined by whether or not the public still thinks it's promoting gambling, hell I was asked about what microtransactions even meant by family in regards to Star Wars.
 
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Skeeter49

I wish Jim Ryan would eat me
Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,297
With no gravity, you'd actually never run into the Sun. Instantaneous velocity vector is perpendicular to the normal of the radius of orbit of all planets relative to the Sun. Everything would just fly off into space in a straight line.

This includes the Sun, since the Milky Way would also dissociate in a similar fashion as the Black Hole would lose it's hold over everything.
I never expected NPD to get this deep
 

Vena

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,441

Doesn't mean we can't run into someone else's sun! I hear those are big!*

*This all presumes we survive the explosion of our black hole because gravity took a day off. I have a feeling that our likely hood of surviving is actually fairly small, though it will take some time for us to find out that we were doomed.
 

donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
620
Actually it's a much simpler explanation. We don't "own" the data in the US, the participating publishers and retailers do. Therefore It can't be shared unless authorized.

Back in the day NPD would release tons of data including hw and sw figures. I'd do that again tomorrow if I could. Shrug.
Are there different ideas of ownership for sales data in Japan vs. the U.S., then? NPD reps have mentioned about the publishers allowing data to be listed before, and one of the companies backing out is probably the main reason that the HW figures stopped in 2008(?) or so. Just seems weird that the publisher would allow the data in Japan and not the U.S. unless there are different ideas of ownership for those numbers in the two countries.
 
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