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phantomx

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,801
Sort of how Sony was forced to focus on one platform (and an online service) after the bomb of the Vita.

Sony will never realize the halcyon days of selling ~165 million consoles across two systems like they did last gen with PS3/psp

:)

Everyone is dealing with contraction in the dedicated gaming market.

They are making more money than they ever did, so I don't think they're worried about that 'contraction'.

I put it in quotations because I never got the point to combine handheld and console numbers.

Well, many people are arguing gaming hardware units sold as a barometer for success/failure...and how Nintendo was combatting the "failure" of increasingly lower home console sales...and possibly declining portable console sales...by getting rid of their traditional home console platform and focusing on a very powerful handheld device that can function as a way to play both their handheld gaming and tv gaming.

People saw Nintendo going from ~255 million Wii/Ds sold and going to ~85 million Wii U/3ds as a wake up sign to Nintendo to deal with contraction with a new business model (hybrid)

That's why I brought up Sony also having to deal with the fact that their days of selling ~165 million pieces of gaming hardware a gen is over too. Like Nintendo, they are dealing with market contraction by focusing on one platform, making mid-gen refreshes of said platform, and relying on a paid online gaming service for majority of their revenue going forward.

And I didn't say Sony was worried about contraction. Just like Nintendo was never "worried" about their hardware contraction.

Sony simply addressed it by changing their hardware priorities and design and moving towards an online gaming service business model.

I mean, what would Sony's "success" (profit) with the ps4 this gen be without PsN?

I agree, the focus shouldn't be raw hardware sales units...which is kind of what I was trying to address with my earlier post lol
 

Revolsin

Usage of alt-account.
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,373
The reason I highlight January is because its a big shopping Week 1 for Japan. The other thing was that there's also the release of MHWorld and if Nintendo floods the channels with units, the Switch is, regardless of MH, more popular and it will take money away from possible purchases of a competitor at its...

... only? major release for Japan in 2018.

We're seeing the demand slow down a bit now with the Switch being in stock in some places in Japan. I don't honestly think they can do much to prevent PS4 beasting there for a while due to MH.
 

phantomx

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,801
They're not "numbers." They're projections / estimates through the end of 2017 by analyst Daniel Eves who works for GBH Insights.

It's derived primarily from cursory channel checks and surveys, and is no way intended to be a wholly accurate or comprehensive reflection of the retail landscape.

So, it pretty much fits USA Today standards
 

Deleted member 4021

Oct 25, 2017
1,707
Nintendo will certainly have to increase production if they want to hit 20 million next year.
 

phantomx

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,801
Nintendo will certainly have to increase production if they want to hit 20 million next year.

Haven't they already?

I mean, the last time we heard from Nintendo they plan on having shipped ~17 million Switch's by the end of March. And a recent WSJ rumor has that expectation increasing to ~19 million units

Considering how poor production was the first 6 months, Nintendo still hitting 17-19 million units shipped by March means they pretty much hav their production issues taken care of.
 

Benji

Self Requested Ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,114
I think he's referring to his earlier vow to stop posting so much of his personal industry info in gaming forums...?

It's a weakness.

I'm a sucker and I love talking about the industry.

Frankly the secretive nature of this industry is beyond lame anyways and primarily comes from publishers
 

RexNovis

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,152
Regarding PSVR I'm still rather bearish on the whole concept of VR as any sort of mass appeal/ mass market consumer device. I just can't see people being willing to wear a head make united display en masse. Vision obstruction is also a big no no for most.

Even if the pricing becomes more affordable I think at best it'll be a very small profitable niche of the market. I do think this niche will be among the highest ARPU in the industry though.
 

Benji

Self Requested Ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,114
Regarding PSVR I'm still rather bearish on the whole concept of VR as any sort of mass appeal/ mass market consumer device. I just can't see people being willing to wear a head make united display en masse. Vision obstruction is also a big no no for most.

Even if the pricing becomes more affordable I think at best it'll be a very small profitable niche of the market. I do think this niche will be among the highest ARPU in the industry though.

It won't ever be the main form of gaming / entertainment

But I'm telling ya'll consumer interest is still sky high. Its surprising the amount of units even random strap on sets that just utilize your cell phone sell. There is still a big upside to VR, absolutely
 

Deleted member 4021

Oct 25, 2017
1,707
I'm surprised we haven't heard about second-gen VR headsets yet. It feels like the progress on VR has halted since the consumer versions came out.
 

Benji

Self Requested Ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,114
I'm surprised we haven't heard about second-gen VR headsets yet. It feels like the progress on VR has halted since the consumer versions came out.

Agreed. I'm pretty surprised we haven't heard of 2nd gen sets yet (especially from Oculus)

Sony is saving their next set for PS5 but you would think PC sets would refresh. Without a doubt VR started slower out of the gate than many anticipated though so this likely set back development time / schedules
 

phantomx

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,801
It's a weakness.

I'm a sucker and I love talking about the industry.

Frankly the secretive nature of this industry is beyond lame anyways and primarily comes from publishers

Hey I don't blame you. I wouldn't be able to thread that needle any better if I were in your place.

Let's face it, threads like this on gaming forums ultimately break down to ego stroking...honestly...it never stays just about objective data/analysis. It's all about the control/interpretation/spin of it. Anyone who keeps posting in here..beyond asking a simple question...is delving into ego stroking of some sort.

Heck, even NPD's Matt Piscatella can't refrain from getting himself bogged down and arguing with posters from time to time lol. He can't refrain from responding to random poster's comments either!

Seems to me you should just own it. You can't give any info/data/interpretation without being challenged and needing your ego to respond. It's pretty much impossible. Like an alcoholic or smoker the only real answer is 100% abstention
 

Benji

Self Requested Ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,114
Hey I don't blame you. I wouldn't be able to thread that needle any better if I were in your place.

Let's face it, threads like this on gaming forums ultimately break down to ego stroking...honestly...it never stays just about objective data/analysis. It's all about the control/interpretation/spin of it. Anyone who keeps posting in here..beyond asking a simple question...is delving into ego stroking of some sort.

Heck, even NPD's Matt Piscatella can't refrain from getting himself bogged down and arguing with posters from time to time lol. He can't refrain from responding to random poster's comments either!

Seems to me you should just own it. You can't give any info/data/interpretation without being challenged and needing your ego to respond. It's pretty much impossible. Like an alcoholic or smoker the only real answer is 100% abstention

You are like.......literally entirely misunderstanding what I'm saying.

I don't post for ego stroking. I couldn't give a shit less about that.

I just enjoy talking about this stuff and wish EVERYTHING was out in the open. Look how much I post in the box office threads where I have zero inside info and just talk about all the public numbers. I'm a nerd for this shit.
 

Rainrir

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,337
It's a weakness.

I'm a sucker and I love talking about the industry.

Frankly the secretive nature of this industry is beyond lame anyways and primarily comes from publishers

I need to know the secret handshake to get into the circle of "gaming insiders".

Pretty Please?
 

Phendrift

Member
Oct 25, 2017
32,292
Switch shortages again?

Good. Now we can go from "it's in stock? Demand is low and no one wants it!" back to "Nintendo is back to using artificial shortages to create demand, we still don't know if it's a success!"
 

Terraforce

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
18,917
Still not great. I'm hoping the situation improves in January
Really? I've regularly seen Switches in a few different GameStops, Targets, and Walmart.

Heck, Amazon even has them in stock in seemingly a large amount as they're neither limited in quantity or prime members only as they've done before. All those stores I listed above plus BestBuy also have plenty of online stock as well.

If you want a Switch you should be able to get one rather easily, if not from one location then a plethora of others. Stock seems pretty normal right now.
 

Pokémon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,679
Industry insider who has access to actual data says there are Switch stock shortages going on.

BULLSHIT says another random dude with his anecdotal evidence.

7f5.gif
 

Terraforce

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
18,917
Industry insider who has access to actual data says there are Switch stock shortages going on.

BULLSHIT says another random dude with his anecdotal evidence.

7f5.gif
If you're referring to me calm down there. It could be a regional thing for all I know, but it's much more than mere anecdote when literally every online retailer has a substantial amount of stock. That's all I'm referring to. Geez some people take this shit too seriously.
 
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panda-zebra

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 28, 2017
5,736
Thanks for the PS.VR info, Benji , always happy to hear positive info regarding VR adoption. The more people buy in and show off to their friends, and more so now with better pricing, the more it'll continue to steadily tick over and become a thing. Never get tired of reading about people rushing out to buy their own setup after being blown away demoing a friend or relative's headset, it's a great time of year for that with gifting and party season.

Haha! What you don't like a good game of whack-a-Chad Zhuge?
More ideas for ERA-themed Dreams efforts, ty.
 

Jaal

Member
Oct 28, 2017
221
Its possible Nintendo will divert stock to Japan for January, they will want to put a lot of stock into the market and, potentially, around the MHW launch in Japan.

While it isn't happening in the NA market, the Switch is very much sucking the life out of its competitors in Japan.

Ps4 match the same numbers of 2016 in Japan, a home system couldn't do more even with all the support from third parties like the Ps4. Without Switch Ps4 don't magically sell 4 million this year, its only a fan fiction.

And please, don't transform the NPD thread the same things of the Media Create ones.
 

Rainrir

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,337
And please, don't transform the NPD thread the same things of the Media Create ones.

I take offense to this. The only sale thread with full retail data and decades of sales data is MC. This allows original analysis of the sales in one region and the spotting of trends.

We also do Mobile game companies from time to time, which is a blindspot in NPD and PAL.

What is this "same things" you are talking about. NPD and PAL wished it has the same data access as MC.
 
Oct 25, 2017
15,171
And please, don't transform the NPD thread the same things of the Media Create ones.
Considering we had like 10 pages of weird contrary bullshit the moment there was a hint Switch might be in first place for December, I doubt it'd be like the Media Create you think exists anyways.

However, the fact that there was 10 pages of weird contrary bullshit based on something that wasn't about current market sales data, that's exactly like Media Create without any help whatsoever.
 
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Pokémon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,679
If you're referring to me calm down there. It could be a regional thing for all I know, but it's much more than mere anecdote when literally every online retailer has a substantial amount of stock. That's all I'm referring to. Geez some people take this shit too seriously.

The one you quoted earlier and tried to disprove, Benji.
 

Terraforce

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
18,917
The one you quoted earlier and tried to disprove, Benji.
I still stick to what I said in my last post. Maybe it really is just a regional thing, because not just anecdotes from irl, every single online retailer I see has plenty of stock which would lead me to believe otherwise.

The facts I see point differently. I'm not saying I know more than everyone else or whatever you were trying to imply whilst mocking me with that immature gif and exaggerations, I just don't see the evidence to back up the claim currently.
 
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Revolsin

Usage of alt-account.
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,373
Wow, you are predicting the ps4 will sell more than the Switch in Japan next month?

Probably won't win Jan or even Feb(because of how late in the month MH is releasing), but it'll definitely be winning a few weeks of each. MH is a massive system seller in Japan specifically.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
We're seeing the demand slow down a bit now with the Switch being in stock in some places in Japan. I don't honestly think they can do much to prevent PS4 beasting there for a while due to MH.
Actually, Silpheed-mcd's update from today said that the Switch was selling out a lot again, with only a few stores having supply. The supply slowing down was tied to week 52 being a really slow week (as many told us already), and now the demand apparently is going up a lot again. I doubt Switch will drop below a level needed to handily outsell PS4 month-for-month, even with MHW releasing. The only week I could see PS4 outselling Switch is the week MHW releases, personally.
 

MasterChumly

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,895
I still stick to what I said in my last post. Maybe it really is just a regional thing, because not just anecdotes from irl, every single online retailer I see has plenty of stock which would lead me to believe otherwise.

The facts I see point differently. I'm not saying I know more than everyone else or whatever you were trying to imply whilst mocking me with that immature gif and exaggerations, I just don't see the evidence to back up the claim currently.
I already posted that all of my targets and Best Buy's were out of stock. I just checked GameStop and all stores in my city are out of stock as well. That's 30+ stores. Maybe it's just a regional thing for you and you happen to be the only place that isn't facing shortages.
 

Mr_F_Snowman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,879
Gets pretty tiring seeing people saying "i don't see the evidence" when the evidence is put right in front of them from people with the numbers
 

Sphinx

Member
Nov 29, 2017
2,376
Benji and other sales data insiders, one question for you.

in what camp are you right now, with the info there is?

A .- "people should remain cautiously optimistic with the Switch, it's doing well but 2018 is where Switch's fate will be decided, I am really not sure we have a PS2/Wii/PS4 here"

B .- "people doubting Switch are out of their mind, if we compare sales historical data, switch can be nothing but a smashing success"

I know you guys don't have all info so it's not a statement but an educated guess/gut feeling (also, it's just for fun)

Thanks in advance :D
 

Psycho_Mantis

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,965
While it isn't happening in the NA market, the Switch is very much sucking the life out of its competitors in Japan.

This is just plain wrong and has already been discussed in the MC threads: PS4 will end near flat YOY and its hardware sales are largely related to its software lineup.

Japan doesn't care for KH as much as you think

Another misleading statement. Who wouldn't coin KH3 as a major game in Japan in 2018?
 

MatrixMan.exe

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,498
Its possible Nintendo will divert stock to Japan for January, they will want to put a lot of stock into the market and, potentially, around the MHW launch in Japan.

While it isn't happening in the NA market, the Switch is very much sucking the life out of its competitors in Japan.

What competitors? :P
 

djinnEXE

Member
Oct 25, 2017
449
What competitors? :P
The one getting all the games, even if it does nothing for the system there.


Also People are really over selling KH3s impact on ps4 in Japan. I think it will be big by moving software +500K or so but not hardware. There aren't many BIG hardware movers in Japan and like 75% of them are Nintendo's own games
 

MatrixMan.exe

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,498
The ones with big third party support ;)

The one getting all the games, even if it does nothing for the system there.


Also People are really over selling KH3s impact on ps4 in Japan. I think it will be big by moving software +500K or so but not hardware. There aren't many BIG hardware movers in Japan and like 75% of them are Nintendo's own games

As true as this is, I don't really think there's much life for the Switch to "suck out of its competitors". The PS4 received that third party support because it was the only viable platform for said support. I imagine you'll see that change as we move through into 2018 and through 2019.
 
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