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Sphinx

Member
Nov 29, 2017
2,377
I don't really think there's much life for the Switch to "suck out of its competitors".

this.

some of you people seem to forget, that for a long long period, PS4 was doing worse than WiiU in Japan... let that sink in for a second... worse than the goddamned WiiU...

PS4 has always received and will always continue receiving Japan's cold shoulder, you can add some thousands of units on big weeks or when big games arrive but it will always be a failure there.

3DS and VIta on their ways out means Switch can eat the whole cake
 

Psycho_Mantis

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,965
As true as this is, I don't really think there's much life for the Switch to "suck out of its competitors". The PS4 received that third party support because it was the only viable platform for said support. I imagine you'll see that change as we move through into 2018 and through 2019.

PS4 gets its third party support due to its global dominance. You won't see anything change in that regard in the future. 2018 has even better Japanese support for PS4 than 2017. We'll probably see a dip soon though as PS5 slowly comes into play.
 

Psycho_Mantis

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,965
some of you people seem to forget, that for a long long period, PS4 was doing worse than WiiU in Japan... let that sink in for a second... worse than the goddamned WiiU...

This is a lie.

WiiU/ PS4
2012 - 638k / ---
2013 - 880k/ ---
2014 - 604k/ 924k
2015 - 876k/ 1276k
2016 - 284k / 1812k
2017 - 19k / 1784k

PS4 has always received and will always continue receiving Japan's cold shoulder,

Thats a funny way of saying it getting the best third party support. In terms of sales its outdoing the PS3 software and hardware wise at similar points in time.
 

djinnEXE

Member
Oct 25, 2017
449
As true as this is, I don't really think there's much life for the Switch to "suck out of its competitors". The PS4 received that third party support because it was the only viable platform for said support. I imagine you'll see that change as we move through into 2018 and through 2019.
For sure ps4 will still continue selling for what is has unique to itself. MHW will move up the hardware numbers for some time. I'm a bit 50/50 on DBFZ and DW9 <- I blame KT for this one.

On topic
Hope Nintendo can actually deliver more on the stock in 2018 not just in JP and NA but WW
 

djinnEXE

Member
Oct 25, 2017
449
This is a lie.

WiiU/ PS4
2012 - 638k / ---
2013 - 880k/ ---
2014 - 604k/ 924k
2015 - 876k/ 1276k
2016 - 284k / 1812k
2017 - 19k / 1784k



Thats a funny way of saying it getting the best third party support. In terms of sales its outdoing the PS3 software and hardware wise at similar points in time.
Your missing his point. All that 3rd party support and promise of greatness and yet it struggled to outsell a platform that was considered a failure since launch. It shouldn't have taken it 3 years and a new model with the kind of support it got. You forget that in 2015 Splatoon, 1 game, kept the ps4 from outselling it.
 

Soony Xbone Uhh

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,156
I would never say comfotably in such a competitive time period, but yes.
After November i was pretty certain every console has a shot at being #1 or also last for the month.

Imho the hardest month since a long time to predict the correct order.
I'm just 100% sure every console sold at least 1 million and no console close to 2 million. That's the only bet i would take.
 

Pokémon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,681
I still think that the Xbox One might surprise us this month since PUBG seems to be selling really well.

It's really hard to predict this month really.
 

Psycho_Mantis

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,965
Your missing his point. All that 3rd party support and promise of greatness and yet it struggled to outsell a platform that was considered a failure since launch. It shouldn't have taken it 3 years and a new model with the kind of support it got. You forget that in 2015 Splatoon, 1 game, kept the ps4 from outselling it.

Didn't miss his point. His point was completely disproved in reality. What? PS4 is going to do more than twice, maybe 3 times the number WiiU did in Japan. And you're wrong again. PS4 outsold WiiU by nearly 1.5 times in 2015.
 

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,355
Didn't miss his point. His point was completely disproved in reality. What? PS4 is going to do more than twice, maybe 3 times the number WiiU did in Japan. And you're wrong again. PS4 outsold WiiU by nearly 1.5 times in 2015.

I guess he is talking about launch aligned comparison where WiiU was ahead for first two years thanks to stronger start.
 

Deleted member 5167

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
3,114
I guess it makes sense that the thread where Psycho Mantis restricts himself to only using JP specific sales data is the NPD one.
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,500
That's a pretty misleading way of starting that analysis off considering you're comparing WiiU's "first year" of 4 weeks compared to PS4's first year of over 10 months.

You know why it's being done like that lol.

That said, I don't think the Switch really sucked the air out of the PS4 this year or even the 3DS. Their hardware performance was pretty on par with the previous year surprisingly.

The PS4 posted that crappy year end all on its own.
 

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
That said, I don't think the Switch really sucked the air out of the PS4 this year or even the 3DS. Their hardware performance was pretty on par with the previous year surprisingly.

The PS4 posted that crappy year end all on its own.

I think it had an impact this fall and holiday but as you said PS4 lineup was so crappy and PS4 hardware sales have a cap anyways.
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
He said 20 million shipped. Not the same as 25 million sold...

I actually think his statement should be read as 20 million sold through, not shipped. It's not explicitly clear of course but the production is reported as 25-30 million, which means 20 million sold through seems like the goal to go with that production number.

We'll find out their official forecast in April I suppose.
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,500
I think it had an impact this fall and holiday but as you said PS4 lineup was so crappy and PS4 hardware sales have a cap anyways.

The PS4 and Switch software catalogues are so different I don't really see where the overlap is. I dont feel the 2 share enough titles to make the Switch a buy over the PS4 hardware wise.

I might argue duel system ownership hurt PS4 software sales to some extent though. But the PS4 had such a crap lineup this holiday its hard to really draw a link.
 

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
This is a lie.

WiiU/ PS4
2012 - 638k / ---
2013 - 880k/ ---
2014 - 604k/ 924k
2015 - 876k/ 1276k
2016 - 284k / 1812k
2017 - 19k / 1784k

This is not a lie lol, PS4 was doing worse than the Wii U for the first months in Japan, and no, i don't talk about total sales launch allinied, because of course i know Wii U was released during the holiday.

PS4 was selling for a long period of time with a baseline of 5/6K in Japan, which is slighly less than what was selling the Wii U in 2013. Some rare boost made PS4 selling over 10K for some weeks, which was still a ridiculus result, and is not Wii U wasn't doing the same some weeks.

For the first year, PS4 pretty much sold worse than the Wii U, 2014 numbers are higher than Wii U 2013 numbers only because there is launch week of >300K. Remove that week, and you see how bad 2014 numbers looks like.

PS4 of course improved and now is not selling bad, but only since 2015 when it really started to do respectable numbers, in 2014, PS4 was selling at over doom level.
 

Terraforce

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
18,917
I already posted that all of my targets and Best Buy's were out of stock. I just checked GameStop and all stores in my city are out of stock as well. That's 30+ stores. Maybe it's just a regional thing for you and you happen to be the only place that isn't facing shortages.
Considering I'm NA, that's one of the larger regions. And if EVERY online retailer has plenty, that's saying a lot.
 

MasterChumly

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,902
Considering I'm NA, that's one of the larger regions. And if EVERY online retailer has plenty, that's saying a lot.
It's already been said but I'll repeat it again. You can order online and receive in store pickup within a week or have it shipped to your house but the actual stores do not have any stock. If no stores have any in stock just because stores have it available online to ship doesn't help your argument. I don't know why your being purposely obtuse to say there's not a single supply problem because you can order it online.

No physical stores having stock is absolutely a sign of supply constraints
 

ethomaz

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,851
Santa Albertina
After read the insights my Switch prediction will be over 1 million with avg. week sales similar to November.

[NSW] 1125k

Let's think a bit more about my PS4 and XB1 prediction.
 
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Terraforce

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
18,917
It's already been said but I'll repeat it again. You can order online and receive in store pickup within a week or have it shipped to your house but the actual stores do not have any stock. If no stores have any in stock just because stores have it available online to ship doesn't help your argument. I don't know why your being purposely obtuse to say there's not a single supply problem because you can order it online.

No physical stores having stock is absolutely a sign of supply constraints
Never did I say there's no stock issues at all. Pretty silly to attempt to call me obtuse whilst putting words in my mouth. Especially when I also said earlier that I've seen plenty in stores. Since the end of the holidays alone I've been in at least a dozen different stores and most had plenty of stock as well. But what you or I see irl is more anecdotal so I wasn't relying on that as my core argument. So no, it's not "no stores." From what I've seen myself and social media the opposite seems to be true for a lot of people. The online reinforces that as online retailers had been out of stock for months near the launch and even later in the year. Thus DOES help my argument all things considering.

I don't even know why people are acting like this is such a serious deal anyway. Does it have to sell out everywhere to be a roaring success to some people here?
 

James

Member
Oct 25, 2017
271
US
Considering I'm NA, that's one of the larger regions. And if EVERY online retailer has plenty, that's saying a lot.

Nobody ever claimed that Switch was impossible to find. The claim was that Switch is having supply issues again. Evidence provided, in addition to reliable information from people who have access to it, is stock checker websites showing widespread out-of-stock at retailers across the country. If you accept that this means there are supply issues, then there is no argument. If you do not, then I am not sure what can be said...

Regarding online supply, it does look better. Amazon received what seems to have been a substantial shipment, but it came too late for Christmas shipping. Some other online retailers have stock, and some are selling against shipments they expect to receive soon.

I am not sure what basis you have for claiming that any retailer has "plenty" of stock, unless you have access to their inventory systems. Your claim that "EVERY" online retailer has stock is completely false.

Basically, you either have no point or you are wrong. Probably both. Let it go.
 

MasterChumly

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,902
Never did I say there's no stock issues at all. Pretty silly to attempt to call me obtuse whilst putting words in my mouth. Especially when I also said earlier that I've seen plenty in stores. Since the end of the holidays alone I've been in at least a dozen different stores and most had plenty of stock as well. But what you or I see irl is more anecdotal so I wasn't relying on that as my core argument. So no, it's not "no stores." From what I've seen myself and social media the opposite seems to be true for a lot of people. The online reinforces that as online retailers had been out of stock for months near the launch and even later in the year. Thus DOES help my argument all things considering.

I don't even know why people are acting like this is such a serious deal anyway. Does it have to sell out everywhere to be a roaring success to some people here?
You specifically called out benji who has inside information and said that supply was normal. I'm saying your absolutely wrong. I don't know what your deal is and why your claiming that the switch stock situation is normal when we have evidence otherwise
 

Issen

Member
Nov 12, 2017
6,819
Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but is it normal for PC Software revenue to be so low compared to console?
 
OP
OP
ZhugeEX

ZhugeEX

Senior Analyst at Niko Partners
Verified
Oct 24, 2017
3,099
I actually think his statement should be read as 20 million sold through, not shipped. It's not explicitly clear of course but the production is reported as 25-30 million, which means 20 million sold through seems like the goal to go with that production number.

We'll find out their official forecast in April I suppose.

Kimishima always refers to shipped numbers.
 

Mpl90

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,215
Kimishima always refers to shipped numbers.

Since it was a more informal environment than a financial meeting, it's possible he meant 20 millions of sell-through, but I'm sure (if he decides to follow through with that "desire") he'll start with 20 millions shipped for the next FY as initial forecast.
 

Benji

Self Requested Ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,114
Really? I've regularly seen Switches in a few different GameStops, Targets, and Walmart.

Heck, Amazon even has them in stock in seemingly a large amount as they're neither limited in quantity or prime members only as they've done before. All those stores I listed above plus BestBuy also have plenty of online stock as well.

If you want a Switch you should be able to get one rather easily, if not from one location then a plethora of others. Stock seems pretty normal right now.


Stock is lower than October / November currently in terms of availability. So depends on what you mean by normal.

Shortages doesn't mean something is literally sold out everywhere and impossible to find. It means that there are areas where demand has outstipped supply and that currently it's not widely available at most / all locations in terms of plentiful stock.

Switch is currently supply constrained. Not enormously so but enough to be noteworthy
 

Peek-a-boo!

Member
Oct 30, 2017
4,196
Woodbridge
Doubting the PS4 again, Chobel?

I don't know if he does it on purpose or not!

Although I am quite aware that Amazon isn't the be all, end all... it does have an air of Switch being the best selling console by a considerable margin whilst the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One are settled in second and third place respectively.

If the PlayStation 4 does indeed comes first or second, then that means the Xbox One will go the entire year without a 'win' in by far and away their strongest territory. I would have never guessed this after their years of domination with the Xbox 360...
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Kimishima always refers to shipped numbers.

Even in informal interviews like that? I know on financial briefings they refer to shipped but I don't think there was enough context in that interview to determine exactly what he meant, and since the WSJ seemed to be on the money with production numbers for this FY I'd be surprised if they were off for the next one. Is 20M shipped a reasonable goal if they produce close to 30M?
 

gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,126
Stock is lower than October / November currently in terms of availability. So depends on what you mean by normal.

Shortages doesn't mean something is literally sold out everywhere and impossible to find. It means that there are areas where demand has outstipped supply and that currently it's not widely available at most / all locations in terms of plentiful stock.

Switch is currently supply constrained. Not enormously so but enough to be noteworthy

Yep .
I think sometimes people forget that .
Supply constrain does not mean sold out .
 

ethomaz

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,851
Santa Albertina
There's no $199 PS4 deal this time, while XB1 was $189/$199 for the whole month.

Plus I think XB1>PS4 is gonna be "controversial"
I'm having a hard time with PS4 numbers... one side I'm thinking like you... no $199 deal = lower numbers.

But it was up YoY every month this year without any kind of deal... so why December it will be down?

December 2016 was 1.56m... I'm not seeing PS4 below 1.5m this month... it is it peak year.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Look at my 2017 prediction rank... I won't give up that just because I like a console more than another.

I do predictions to win the competition... not to make my console looks better.
I am interested in your reasoning behind favouring PS4 over Switch for the 1st place in December NPD. From what we heard from Benji, Switch is selling really well while he hinted at controversial results for PS4 and XB1, which to me suggests that XB1 may have outsold PS4 (since most would think PS4 will take the cake, at least between PS4 and XB1).

I'm having a hard time with PS4 numbers... one side I'm thinking like you... no $199 deal = lower numbers.

But it was up YoY every month this year without any kind of deal... so why December it will be down?

December 2016 was 1.56m... I'm not seeing PS4 below 1.5m this month... it is it peak year.
That's a reasonable way of looking at it, but I think we also need to consider the onslaught that was November. Those huge numbers (biggest month ever) probably will have taken away some sales from December, where gift purchasers took the plunge early when seeing that sexy $199 deal. Depending on exactly how high PS4 was last month, I think it might be down quite a bit compared to last year, while still being up YoY when combining the two months.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
I'm having a hard time with PS4 numbers... one side I'm thinking like you... no $199 deal = lower numbers.

But it was up YoY every month this year without any kind of deal... so why December it will be down?

December 2016 was 1.56m... I'm not seeing PS4 below 1.5m this month.

It could be down because of the very attractive November 200$ deal pushing usual December buyers to buy early (in November).
 
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