NPD November 2017: Call of duty WW2 #1 SW, PS4 #1 HW

[Elandyll]

I'm having a hard time with PS4 numbers... one side I'm thinking like you... no $199 deal = lower numbers.

But it was up YoY every month this year without any kind of deal... so why December it will be down?

December 2016 was 1.56m... I'm not seeing PS4 below 1.5m this month... it is it peak year.

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I think that because of no $199 deal the PS4 will be down MoM (it normally would be up), but because the XB1S has been $199 since October and wasn't that popular at that price, I don't think it actually played as big a part in December as the "price frenzy" of BF/ CM.

The XB1 "fam" will be impacted due to the lack of XB1X pre orders and the XB1S carrying its lack of 2017 buzz, so I think it's going to be Switch > PS4 > XB1.

As of now, until some potential ground breaking news from Abdiel, I think

NSW: 1.5m
PS4: 1.3m
XB1: 1.1m

 

[Benji]

Again keep in mind don't base all of your expectations on my posts. It's one chunk of data and not the complete picture of the US retail market.

That said you now have both me and Amazon telling you a healthy lead for Switch in December. It would take a freak underperformance somewhere for it to not lead the month. Not impossible of course but seems unlikely.

Xbox and PS4 could potentially be a coin flip

 

[silva1991]

Methinks

NSW 1.7m
PS4/Xbox1 ~ 1.3m

 

[djinnEXE]

Look at my 2017 prediction rank... I won't give up that just because I like a console more than another.

I do predictions to win the competition... not to make my console looks better.

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What are the stakes in this competition and what do you win? Because the way you respond to people if they even humor the Switch winning or want to believe insider reports makes me think you bet your life on the ps4 coming out on top.

 

[chobel]

NSW: 1.65m
XB1: 1.3m
PS4: 1.1m

 

[Zedark]

Hmm, let me throw my own updated predictions in with the insight we have atm:

NSW - 1.7M
XB1 - 1.35M
PS4 - 1.3M

I think the deal for XB1 at $189 will put it very lightly ahead. PS4 will be down YoY by roughly 250k because of the huge month that preceded it, combined with a new competitor for people's money (Switch)* and the big deals for XB1 taking away some interest.

* Please note that this effect is quite small in my estimation, and the XB1 part is a bigger reason. Switch might take a few 10k away (maybe 100k at most) on a 1.6M base number, so that's really not a lot. I'm NOT saying Switch is going to make the PS4 drop in sales to a significant degree, just so we're clear.

 

[ethomaz]

What are the stakes in this competition and what do you win? Because the way you respond to people if they even humor the Switch winning or want to believe insider reports makes me think you bet your life on the ps4 coming out on top.

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I responded to people saying Switch will be first? I just give my prediction.

I believe PS4 will come on top... you don't stop to sell well from one month to another without any reason.

 

[Saint-14]

What are the stakes in this competition and what do you win? Because the way you respond to people if they even humor the Switch winning or want to believe insider reports makes me think you bet your life on the ps4 coming out on top.

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Nothing wrong with predicting PS4 will be above Switch, I'm not sure why you are bothered by him doing that.

 

[KillerMan91]

Again keep in mind don't base all of your expectations on my posts. It's one chunk of data and not the complete picture of the US retail market.

That said you now have both me and Amazon telling you a healthy lead for Switch in December. It would take a freak underperformance somewhere for it to not lead the month. Not impossible of course but seems unlikely.

Xbox and PS4 could potentially be a coin flip

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Well maybe those couple of november tracking days could change things a bit despite Switch having bigger december. Cyber monday still had $199 PS4 deals left.

 

[Benji]

Well maybe those couple of november tracking days could change things a bit despite Switch having bigger december. Cyber monday still had $199 PS4 deals left.

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Still seems unlikely as by the time Cyber Monday hit $199 PS4 was basically gone outside of a few brief moments at certain retailers.

But you never know coukd happen. Switch not no 1 though would heavily surprise me

 

[Lwill]

Again keep in mind don't base all of your expectations on my posts. It's one chunk of data and not the complete picture of the US retail market.

That said you now have both me and Amazon telling you a healthy lead for Switch in December. It would take a freak underperformance somewhere for it to not lead the month. Not impossible of course but seems unlikely.

Xbox and PS4 could potentially be a coin flip

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How was the Switch selling on Amazon last month? I thought the Switch was leading there.. which means that I will weight your comments more than Amazon's info. :)

 

[Pokémon]

Well maybe those couple of november tracking days could change things a bit despite Switch having bigger december. Cyber monday still had $199 PS4 deals left.

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Wasn't the $199 PS4 stock gone by Cyber Monday anyways and thus not really relevant in this case? I vaguely remember stock being gone by then.

EDIT: Beaten by Benji's confirmation.

 

[Benji]

How was the Switch selling on Amazon last month? I thought the Switch was leading there.. which means that I will weight your comments more than Amazon's info. :)

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Both Switch sku's ranked higher than PS4 for December on Amazon. Considering both are higher than PS4 that would seem to indicate a rather large lead for Switch

 

[Psrock1]

Can we please stop using Amazon as indication of anything.
This was Nov in Amazon.

# 8 Xbox
#12 PS4
#13 Switch
#16 Switch

 

[Zedark]

Can we please stop using Amazon as indication of anything.
This was Nov in Amazon.

# 8 Xbox
#12 PS4
#13 Switch
#16 Switch

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PS4 was sold out very quickly on amazon, earlier than other retailers iirc. That definitely skews the ranking imo. Same to some extent will be the case this month, since the SWBFII bundle sold out on amazon some time towards Christmas.

 

[Skittzo]

Can we please stop using Amazon as indication of anything.
This was Nov in Amazon.

# 8 Xbox
#12 PS4
#13 Switch
#16 Switch

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Probably a good idea to include other SKUs for Xbox and PS4 too, and note that Amazon tracked the full month including Cyber Monday while NPD did not.

 

[kowalski]

Wasn't the $199 PS4 stock gone by Cyber Monday anyways and thus not really relevant in this case? I vaguely remember stock being gone by then.

EDIT: Beaten by Benji's confirmation.

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Not in Walmart and Gamestop. Actually it was #1 on Walmart for Cyber Monday.

 

[cakely]

Again keep in mind don't base all of your expectations on my posts. It's one chunk of data and not the complete picture of the US retail market.

That said you now have both me and Amazon telling you a healthy lead for Switch in December. It would take a freak underperformance somewhere for it to not lead the month. Not impossible of course but seems unlikely.

Xbox and PS4 could potentially be a coin flip

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Sounds legit. Switch with a healthy lead and Xbox One and PlayStation 4 close enough that it really doesn't matter.

My final prediction will be Switch > PS4 > XBO with both PS4 and XBO being down from November.

 

[Psrock1]

PS4 was sold out very quickly on amazon, earlier than other retailers iirc. That definitely skews the ranking imo. Same to some extent will be the case this month, since the SWBFII bundle sold out on amazon some time towards Christmas.

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Hence the reason, the rankings are not that important to reality. There was nothing according to Amazon that led me to believe PS4 had its best month ever November, nothing.

 

[Psrock1]

Probably a good idea to include other SKUs for Xbox and PS4 too, and note that Amazon tracked the full month including Cyber Monday while NPD did not.

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#29 xbox X
#48 xbox x
#55 xbox s
#60 PS4 sLIM
#82 PS4 Pro

The xbox dominated in Amazon and the Switch had two console in the top 15.
reality says otherwise.

 

[Benji]

Hence the reason, the rankings are not that important to reality. There was nothing according to Amazon that led me to believe PS4 had its best month ever November, nothing.

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I mean I never base anything off just Amazon.

But I'm seeing Switch no1 as well. It's both data sets leading me to that conclusion.

Could be wrong though of course

 

[CrypticSlayer]

I'm surprised MS didn't price cut the AC and SOW 500 GB bundles to 199. They instead opted for the bundles with older games. Makes me wonder if they'll pull out the 199 on those bundles in around March of next year.

 

[KillerMan91]

Still seems unlikely as by the time Cyber Monday hit $199 PS4 was basically gone outside of a few brief moments at certain retailers.

But you never know coukd happen. Switch not no 1 though would heavily surprise me

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Wasn't the $199 PS4 stock gone by Cyber Monday anyways and thus not really relevant in this case? I vaguely remember stock being gone by then.

EDIT: Beaten by Benji's confirmation.

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At least Walmart still had some $199 stock by cyber monday.

edit. Beaten by kowalski

 

[ethomaz]

Still seems unlikely as by the time Cyber Monday hit $199 PS4 was basically gone outside of a few brief moments at certain retailers.

But you never know coukd happen. Switch not no 1 though would heavily surprise me

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Well I read here some retailers hold $199 stock to Cyber Monday and that was why a new availability happened...

Walmart and GameStop had $199 PS4 at CM and it was even the best selling item.

 

[The Last One]

What are the stakes in this competition and what do you win? Because the way you respond to people if they even humor the Switch winning or want to believe insider reports makes me think you bet your life on the ps4 coming out on top.

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Why do you care so much? It's just a prediction, all signs points to a wrong one but still... Don't know what you're trying to do here.

 

[panda-zebra]

I mean I never base anything off just Amazon.

But I'm seeing Switch no1 as well. It's both data sets leading me to that conclusion.

Could be wrong though of course

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Can you say if your data is fine grained or is it limited to rankings and whole weeks/calendar months, or can you query daily and units/revenue? So basically, can you separate the last few days of November from your November figures and if so what do the rankings/numbers look like? As mentioned above, there was reportedly still stock of the $199 ps4 on CM at some outlets, it was top seller at Walmart that day and Gamestop had units.

 

[Psrock1]

I mean I never base anything off just Amazon.

But I'm seeing Switch no1 as well. It's both data sets leading me to that conclusion.

Could be wrong though of course

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Funny, I thought the Switch was going to Win in November, it had been winning the previous months, so I was shocked it got rocked so hard. So, Yes, I would be surprised if it loses again.
I just don't put much stock to Amazon rankings.

 

[Hero]

I responded to people saying Switch will be first? I just give my prediction.

I believe PS4 will come on top... you don't stop to sell well from one month to another without any reason.

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Ordinarily I would agree but Sony ran a great deal for Black Friday weekend was way too lucrative for consumers to pass up and could have potentially gotten people on the fence that may have waited a few weeks into December to buy it to get one immediately. If the 199 price was valid through December I would have found it to increase from November at a usual rate.

 

[Lwill]

Hence the reason, the rankings are not that important to reality. There was nothing according to Amazon that led me to believe PS4 had its best month ever November, nothing.

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Amazon: December (1-30)
https://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2017-12/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar#1

#6 Switch Gray $299
#10 Switch Neon $299
#14 PS4 1TB Star Wars 2 $249/$299
#28 PS4 1TB $199/$299
#31 Xbox One S 500GB Forza Horizon 3 Hot Wheels $199
#36 Xbox One X 1TB $499
#53 PS4 Pro 1TB $349/$399

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Can we please stop using Amazon as indication of anything.
This was Nov in Amazon.

# 8 Xbox
#12 PS4
#13 Switch
#16 Switch

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Well, unlike November, both of Switch's SKUs are above the others' base SKU by a notable amount on Amazon. How is the current stock for PS4's BF2's SKU? It is still below both the Switch, but way above the others.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Can we please stop using Amazon as indication of anything.
This was Nov in Amazon.

# 8 Xbox
#12 PS4
#13 Switch
#16 Switch

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I just use Amazon for rankings. I don't use it for details.

PS4 was ahead in November (up to the NPD cutoff) and PS4 sold the most. Switch is the leading SKU in December. It will most likely sell the most in December.

Well, unlike November, both of Switch's SKUs are above the others' base SKU by a notable amount on Amazon. How is the current stock for PS4's BF2's SKU? It is still below both the Switch, but way above the others.

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There have been instances where things ranked relatively far apart on Amazon have been close in sales over US as a whole.

I would just stick to rankings. Of course, I'm not saying there can't be a considerable gap between Switch and the others. I'm saying Amazon isn't useful in determining that.

 

[chobel]

Where's PS4 CoD:WW bundle? We're about to enter 2018 and there's still no sign of it.

 

[Psrock1]

The Xbox was the winner in November in Amazon, not the PS4...........

 

[Ryng™]

The Xbox was the winner in November in Amazon, not the PS4...........

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And for the 643879292874 time, Amazon is from November 1 to November 30, While NPD tracking stopped in November 25.

 

[djinnEXE]

Where's PS4 CoD:WW bundle? We're about to enter 2018 and there's still no sign of it.

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Was there one planned?

 

[Sangetsu-II]

The Xbox was the winner in November in Amazon, not the PS4...........

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Incorrect PS4 was ahead of XB1 by NPD cut off.

 

[Psrock1]

And for the 643879292874 time, Amazon is from November 1 to November 30, While NPD tracking stopped in November 25.

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So, I shouldn't based my numbers on Amazon rankings?

 

[SinCityAssassin]

So, I shouldn't based my numbers on Amazon rankings?

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Like people say in every thread, Amazon and other retailer rankings provide a piece of data that isn't necessarily the most complete picture. To base your numbers on them completely is foolish, but looking into them provides a bit of an insight on the pacing of sales.

 

[MasterChumly]

The Xbox was the winner in November in Amazon, not the PS4...........

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Correct and the PS4 was the winner during the NPD timeframe....... so your point is?

 

[Benji]

Like people say in every thread, Amazon and other retailer rankings provide a piece of data that isn't necessarily the most complete picture. To base your numbers on them completely is foolish, but looking into them provides a bit of an insight on the pacing of sales.

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Exactly. As has been repeated many times no one has the complete picture until the NPD report releases. Different products can sell differently at different retailers. It's actually very common as say a GameStop and a Wal-Mart have different types of shoppers.

That said when you start to see a pattern, as we are seeing in December with my data as well as Amazon's the picture starts to become clearer.

Essentially for Switch to not take the month either PS4 had to have had a monster Cyber Monday or Switch had to have severely underperformed somewhere. Both situations are indeed possible but not the likeliest scenario IMO

 

[allan-bh]

I'm surprised MS didn't price cut the AC and SOW 500 GB bundles to 199. They instead opted for the bundles with older games. Makes me wonder if they'll pull out the 199 on those bundles in around March of next year.

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Probably because these are third-party games, it's more cheap for them cut the price of bundles with first-party titles.

 

[Celine]

Wonder if Switch will beat the record for monthly sales this generation which was set by PS4 last month.

 

[Pooroomoo]

Wonder if Switch will beat the record for monthly sales this generation which was set by PS4 last month.

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While everything is possible, there's nothing that hints at that. I would think that its being full price with no promotions at all (as opposed to its competitors) would hinder something like that from happening. While there have been occurrences where Nintendo December doubled their November, the circumstances were quite different (especially price-wise). And there are no hints that this happened.

 

[slavesnyder]

Do we think PS1 Classic will launch in 2018?

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don't think so. they prefer to sell the old stuff digitally.

 

[Deleted member 4976]

don't think so. they prefer to sell the old stuff digitally.

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In the case of PS1, not even that really. Sony's handling of PS1/2 has been laughable at best.

 

[Kodama4]

People underestimating PS4 again based on Amazon ranking...gonna be a fun December prediction thread

 

[Apa504]

People underestimating PS4 again based on Amazon ranking...gonna be a fun December prediction thread

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I mean, is not only that, Benji said that his data is showing Switch leading comfortably.

 

[slavesnyder]

In the case of PS1, not even that really. Sony's handling of PS1/2 has been laughable at best.

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i agree that it is sad to see such a huge catalogue rotting and wasted. but sony doesn't take care and doesn't care, which is a tragedy under the aspects aqua already explained, preserving the artform gaming.
anyway, i do not think sony will give us a retro PS1 or PS2 mainly as they have no interest in providing the opportunity to avoid the PSN ecosystem. best thing that could happen would be remasters on PSN or a classics collection, but no separate and isolated hardware. most realistic thing would be one or two more prestige reworks like shadow of the colossus, a dozen of loveless ports and the rest is silence.

 

[djinnEXE]

All I want from Sony is the all the God of War games remade on PS4. Why they only ported GoW3 alone for the 10th anniversary I'll never understand.

 

[Elandyll]

The Xbox was the winner in November in Amazon, not the PS4...........

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In November, b&m retail is king. Amazon can end up right, but it might also miss widely if stocks aren't there (like here).

 

[ethomaz]

In the case of PS1, not even that really. Sony's handling of PS1/2 has been laughable at best.

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I'm the minority but I did not buy any PS2 or PS1 Classic on PS3 because there is no incentive to play these games again.

Sony probably aimed my money with the PS2 to PS4 because I already purchased 8 games just to get the trophies.

If they do the same with PS1 games I probably ending spending over $1k with these games.

I really want 100% trophies of old games I already played... I will pay even full price for Grandia, Xenogears, Soul Reaven, Final Fantasy Tatics, etc with trophies.

HD Remasters and PS2 to PS4 are the way I want old games.