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NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
- Thread starter ZhugeEX
- Start date
While Switch could have even higher holiday peak in coming years it's not guaranteed even if it has price cuts. For example highest holiday season in US for PS4 is still 2015 when it was more expensive than it's today and didn't have Pro model.
This is now the main reason we need a new Punch Out game.
On hardware I've never had a big miss tbh
I just second guess my data because I dont want to just assume I'm always accurate 100%. Best to be cautious than overly sure of yourself.
I dont want to ever mislead people, certainly not intentionally. So I be careful with what I say
Indeed,
when you consider where Wii or even better the DS were price point wise - just shows off what kind of success the Switch. Hell the Switch for the most part has been more expensive or at least as expensive as the base competition system - that usually not the spot where you expect the Nintendo system. Wii/DS were MUCH cheaper than their competition at the time, so the affordable price was a huge advantage.
Switch had a lot going for it this holiday season aside from price though. Pokemon game that sold almost mainline numbers in US during its firth month (and should do really well in December too) and their biggest franchise in terms of first month sales in December (Smash). If Switch has gradual pride cuts (like most consoles) those are used just to stop declining sales. While Switch should sell more in total next year I am not completely sure about holidays especially in US (where Smash is gigantic).
I'm not sure if switch WILL do 3mil just think its possible.
With cyber Monday counting in dec and switch having a big post Christmas push just seems 3 mil is possible however unlikely.
Also, I don't have anyone blocked on Era so not sure where that's from?
With cyber Monday counting in dec and switch having a big post Christmas push just seems 3 mil is possible however unlikely.
Also, I don't have anyone blocked on Era so not sure where that's from?
Next years lineup will be bigger - if Animal Crossing and Pokemon Gen 8 deliver things could get really up there
The most important part - as always is that games like Smash or even Lets Go that dropped this year, will still be system seller next year for people that hadnt picked up the system yet.
By the end of 2019 the Switch will have a massive libary, if we see how things are developing in terms of 3rdParty support, lots of choices for a lot of customers.
Many of the core users are waiting for the Revision before jumping in - same for the price drop. So Switch hasnt reached its final form yet and is putting up these numbers already.
How did I forget that...
Sorry guys, my 2nd point still stays with the post Christmas rush.
2.7 mil is more inline with what I'm thinking then.
If you've never been that off, then I think you might be overcompensating with your downplaying. Maybe the trolls or warriors have just scared you a bit, I get it.
So knowing your data isn't representative of 100% of the market and that the holidays can screw with things (...even though I guess they haven't before?), you currently see things at roughly what? PS4 ~0.8, Switch ~2.5 and XB1 at....you haven't actually shared too much insight into Xbox. So I'll just say ~1.3 for shits and giggles.
Also, to emphasize, I've been saying this is the year of everybody winning for at least 6 months. Even if Switch handily surpasses PS4 YTD sales, nothing can change that. I wish more posters realized that. Crazy fucking year.
Just want to go back to this post.
The Switch will most likely outship the PS4 this fiscal year, especially if what we are being told in this thread right now is correct. It is ahead in Japan and would be ahead in NA, Europe would have to be huge for the PS4 to make up for the deficits elsewhere and we know the Switch is at least doing better than last year in most European markets.
Pokemon probably will make it out in 2019 going by Game Freak's relative consistent output of games. There will also either be a price drop or revision, and possibly a combination of the two. Nintendo also has a number of other games coming out beyond Animal Crossing that have been announced, and probably more that haven't been announced. It should be the systems best year if Nintendo does everything right and it should definitely be up from 2018 where it really went into a steady cruise control for the April through October months in NPD and Japan data.
I dont give out hard data unit predictions
Right now all I'm projecting are
Switch over 2 million
Xbox One around a mil give or take a bit
PS4 under a million
Apologies. Wasn't trying to get a hard number prediction out of you. More curious that it seemed you were coaching your language to downplay your own data rather than believing what you saw.
Japan did about 1.54M so far,and there is one more week that could add about 160k, so about 1.7M for Q4 2018. US has 266k for October, 1360k for November and then an estimated 2.5M for December,putting the estimated sell-through for Japan and US at around 5.8M. That should put them well on the way to shipping at least 10M units WW in this quarter, but they should want 1-2 million more to hit the goal, of course (and they could very well reach that even in the number example above). Still, a great performance this holiday if things don't fall flat!
Q3 is always disproportionately huge for Nintendo. That said if Switch is north of 2m in the US their shipments for just that region would be 4m+. We could feasibly be looking at one of Nintendo's biggest Q3 shipments.
Does anybody know how well Switch does in Canada? I own one myself and I know a friend who never owned consoles loved the aesthetic of the switch and bought it with botw, smp and smash.
I mean, Canada's population is 10% of the US, but that would not mean it translates to 10% additional sales for the Americas. It could be weaker or stronger, so if anyone could clarify how well Canada does for consoles compared to the US, thanks.
I mean, Canada's population is 10% of the US, but that would not mean it translates to 10% additional sales for the Americas. It could be weaker or stronger, so if anyone could clarify how well Canada does for consoles compared to the US, thanks.
yup. the math for 20M shipment gets a lot easier if North America is massive.
Deleted member 59
Guest
I'll go further;
NA - 3.9m+ (based on ~260k oct, ~1.3m Nov, 2m+ Dec plus 10% for Canada)
JPN - 1.6m+ (based on figures from M-C and at least 100k for week 52)
So sold to customer for this quarter for those two territories is 5.5m+
Shipped therefore you'd have to imagine 6m+
(Edited to add Canada to the NA figure)
Last edited by a moderator:
Traditionally it actually is 10% of the US. The last Switch and PS4 numbers I saw for Canada had roughly the 10% ratio intact.
I believe the last numbers we got put Canada at roughly 10% of the US, indeed.
By accounting for inflation Switch is as expensive as Wii in 2006-2007. Of course it is more expensive than DS.
PS4 has had also better sw years after 2015 (and new models and price cuts) and has not matched its 2015 holiday performance (in US). Switch will have overall better library and maybe price cut too but especially December and the effect of Smash (that will probably sell way beyond 4 million and drive big amount of hw) will be hard to match. Especially as I doubt Nintendo will release Pokemon or Animal Crossing in December. Pokemon Go will also lessen the hw impact of next years Pokemon even if it sells more.
Your NA number is way too low. It is probably in the 4m+ range.
I don't see a scenario where a cheaper Switch with a much more appealing library and a what is shaping up to be a really good 2019 line up is not doing better than this year. Especially in Europe and Japan, where the current price seems to be the limiting factor.
Deleted member 59
Guest
Hence the "+" I've only used 2m as the base for December, nothing else, because that's all we know right now. Oct and November figures are taken from previous threads.
The fact they're somewhat close to approaching 3m this month, it means they'll easily go even beyond that next year as it's just the perfect storm with probable price cuts, bundles, revisions and crazy line-up with massive system sellers like Pokémon Gen 8 and Animal Crossing. I wonder if it can surpass Wii's record.
Yep but your NA number was more like a US number. You should add around 10% from Canada.
Deleted member 59
Guest
Ah, My mistake here was thinking NPD figures were for USA and Canada!
PS4 launched at 399, which was already considered "cheap" for a next gen system in 2013. The fact that the base system only dropped by hundred bucks 5 years later says it all.
The audience Nintendo usually targets is much more price sensitive - so even a 50 bucks can make a big difference at that level. Just see the Wii vs. WiiU reception in terms of price point.
Either way - by the Janury direct we will have a better picture of the 2019 lineup. No doubt in my mind that the Switch will outperform most if not all 2018 months.
I think you are missing the point here. Nintendo systems in the past usually had quite the price advantage compared to other available systems.
Not in terms of hardware, not in terms of software.
So Switch could potentially outsell PS4+XBO combined in December. If this performance continues then third parties are going to struggle to ignore that.
Most 3rdPartys devs are already on board - EA is the only mayor exception with their lackluster support.
It certainly possible. Considering Japan is flat, the rest of the world would have to pick up some significant slack. We'll have to see what the NPD numbers are though to be more sure. A 2m December makes the math work out for me but 2.5m would be really lock it in. Would almost assure they ship 11m for Q3.
Europe is performing much better than last year going by the available data and should be relatively on par with NA's performance, if not a little bit lower. Japan will probably be lower than 25% for the Q3 ratio this time around.
As in games like the divison anthem? Etc? Yeah they'll continue to ignore smaller less graphically intensive games should come though
The "Other" region has consistently been around 35% for the current year., and that was also the case by the end of December 2017.
What available data is there for Europe that suggests better performance this year?
UK HW sales & Spain sales notably, but I won't be able to find sources and such right now.
The eShop is drowning in games, and it's likely only going to get more challenging as more games keep coming to it once it starts pulling away from the pack in 2019.
One data point I know of is that March 2017 - February 2018 sold about the same as March 2018 - 10 December 2018 in the UK as per Christopher Dring's comment. Adding the rest of December and future January plus February sales should put it up significantly imo.
Q3 shipments for Switch last year were 7.23m. Nintendo doesn't provide "regional" split, just a generic Japan/The Americas (I presume US+Canada+whatever other country they sell Switch in South America)/Other (Europe+rest of the world).