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NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month

Oct 27, 2017
1,865
Netherlands
I think 2009 Wii levels can be challenged in December 2019. So if the Switch reaches Wii December 2008 levels in December 2018, we need to SERIOUSLY look at the Switch as the next candidate to the 100 million club ( PS4 getting there easily by next year for sure ).
Given normal trajectories, we should be considering that anyway. The unified development should make a Wii 2011 slump less likely. The only threat might be PS5/XB2 killing any interest for Switch dead in its tracks.
 

Aleh

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,329
Given normal trajectories, we should be considering that anyway. The unified development should make a Wii 2011 slump less likely. The only threat might be PS5/XB2 killing any interest for Switch dead in its tracks.
I don't think $400 stationary consoles that can't play Nintendo games will have any effect on Switch sales
 
Dec 7, 2017
4,367
Spain
Given normal trajectories, we should be considering that anyway. The unified development should make a Wii 2011 slump less likely. The only threat might be PS5/XB2 killing any interest for Switch dead in its tracks.
I think it would have been the case with a late 2019 launch. But with a 2020 launch, I mean the Switch could sell at 199$ ( so probably half next gen console launch price ) by then for December. I think Switch sales will be very strong until late 2021 at least.
 
Nov 20, 2017
2,421
Given normal trajectories, we should be considering that anyway. The unified development should make a Wii 2011 slump less likely. The only threat might be PS5/XB2 killing any interest for Switch dead in its tracks.
I think you're forgetting the threat of Nintendo completely losing the script and the headline software trending more toward stuff no one really wants, which was also a big problem for Wii in 2010-11.
 
Oct 27, 2017
784
Austria
Switch outselling PS4 and XBox combined in December would be Wii frenzy levels of insanity. I still remember when GameStop was telling customers not to expect to get their Wii's until March.
Only difference is that the Wii did it head to head with the PS3 and 360. The PS4 and Xbox One are 3.5 years older and most people interested in them already have one. The Switch will likely wreak havoc during 2019 as well, until 2020, then the PS5 and Xbox Two will try to take over. -That said, I expect the Switch to have a much longer lifespan and legs than the Wii, which burned out like a star after a few years...
 
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Oct 27, 2017
1,865
Netherlands
I don't think $400 stationary consoles that can't play Nintendo games will have any effect on Switch sales
I don't think so either, especially because the hybrid nature of the Switch has the added benefit that the perception of the device can easily move over from a console to that of a handheld. I was just saying that's the only way in which I can foresee Switch not continuing to outpace the 3DS.
(That is, I think 3DS was 14M - 18M, Switch is 15 -.. 19?, okay so it's not outpacing it by much yet I guess, but it also didn't have significant price drops)
 
Oct 27, 2017
5,212
I have a feeling next gen is going to start later in 2020 if at all. This time last year spring 2020 launch seemed plausible. I don't think the software is ready at all. 3rd parties are still heavily invested in current gen. And if we get a 2-3X power device over the OneX nothing about it will be revolutionary. PCs have been operating in that space for years
 
Oct 26, 2017
3,980
I think you're forgetting the threat of Nintendo completely losing the script and the headline software trending more toward stuff no one really wants, which was also a big problem for Wii in 2010-11.
I'd say 2010 had some pretty good games, like Super Mario Galaxy 2. It was 2011 and 2012 that were barren landscapes due to them shifting to the 3DS and the Wii U, so I don't think anything quite like that will happen with the Switch

By essentially announcing the ps4 life was coming to an end? Ppl aren't going to buy a console that isn't getting future support. Just wait for the ps5?
The PS4 is still selling very well, close to its peak year, so I don't think that's it. More than likely because there weren't as many notable deals in December and plenty of folk who would've brought it in December bought one in November
 
Oct 27, 2017
784
Austria
I have a feeling next gen is going to start later in 2020 if at all. This time last year spring 2020 launch seemed plausible. I don't think the software is ready at all. 3rd parties are still heavily invested in current gen. And if we get a 2-3X power device over the OneX nothing about it will be revolutionary. PCs have been operating in that space for years
PCs are limited by the entry level of GPUs and CPUs. While the latter are running laps around the consoles the GPUs aren't actually that impressive on the PC side of things for the majority of users. Many gaming PCs have GTX970 or GTX1060 tier cards in their systems, which both are roughly as powerful as what the Xbox One X is rocking. Developers know of this as well and will always program engines around those cards and the consoles in mind.

With the GTX2060 a new mainstream GPU is to be released soon, the power gain is not immense though, roughly 40% faster than the 1060 and about 50% more expensive. That said I doubt the Nextbox will be able to be more than twice as powerful as the X if it launches in Q2 of 2020, so the gains will be much less impressive than what we got this generation compared to the PS360. If I had to make a bet, I would say the Nextbox(and PS5) will be only roughly 80% faster than the One X but it will benefit of better, upgraded Engines that would have been impossible on the One X' architecture.

Nintendo will actually have the biggest gain when they release their Switch 2 sometime in 2023 or 2024, thanks to mobile devices already catching up to the PS4 Vanilla System in terms of raw power.
 
Nov 20, 2017
2,421
I'd say 2010 had some pretty good games, like Super Mario Galaxy 2. It was 2011 and 2012 that were barren landscapes due to them shifting to the 3DS and the Wii U, so I don't think anything quite like that will happen with the Switch
2010 did have some great games, as did 2011. Galaxy 2, DKC Returns, and the Kirby games were all star titles.

But Nintendo definitely showed they were losing their way compared to the start of the generation with Wii Play: Motion, Metroid: Other M, and Skyward Sword, all of which were terrible sequels.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,410
First things first, I want to thank Mat and Benji, the sales info and hints are amazing and they make way to a fun discussion. I usually just lurk these thread, but really, with all the trolls appearing out of the woods I just wanted to show appreciation for what you do.

Back on topic - something that causes chaos... Maybe Smash's sales are so massive that it overtook a big AAA release? Everyone expects Smash to sell well, but its sales have honestly been insane.
 
Oct 26, 2017
3,980
2010 did have some great games, as did 2011. Galaxy 2, DKC Returns, and the Kirby games were all star titles.

But Nintendo definitely showed they were losing their way compared to the start of the generation with Wii Play: Motion, Metroid: Other M, and Skyward Sword, all of which were terrible sequels.
Ehh...I suppose so but, aside from Metroid Other M, I can't say I agree with the rest. Nintendo's low budget games tend to be hit or miss in general and that didn't really change during the Wii's lifetime and I personally really liked Skyward Sword. There are naturally high and lows with their output
 
Nov 20, 2017
2,421
Ehh...I suppose so but, aside from Metroid Other M, I can't say I agree with the rest. Nintendo's low budget games tend to be hit or miss in general and that didn't really change during the Wii's lifetime and I personally really liked Skyward Sword. There are naturally high and lows with their output
I'm not talking about software you personally liked.

I'm talking about software that damaged the brand. Other M definitely damaged the brand. Wii Play: Motion completely squandered any potential it could have gained from its brand. Aonuma has publicly noted that backlash to Skyward Sword led them down a different path with Breath of the Wild.
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,181
so any chance switch reaches the 20 million goal ?
I'm not talking about software you personally liked.

I'm talking about software that damaged the brand. Other M definitely damaged the brand. Wii Play: Motion completely squandered any potential it could have gained from its brand. Aonuma has publicly noted that backlash to Skyward Sword led them down a different path with Breath of the Wild.
1,2 switch is basically wii play 3
 
Oct 26, 2017
3,980
I'm not talking about software you personally liked.

I'm talking about software that damaged the brand. Other M definitely damaged the brand. Wii Play: Motion completely squandered any potential it could have gained from its brand. Aonuma has publicly noted that backlash to Skyward Sword led them down a different path with Breath of the Wild.
Wii Play: Motion was too irrelevant to damage the brand. I honestly forgot it was even a thing till you brought it up

Metroid Other M hurt the Metroid brand more so than the Wii and, even then, the change came in no small part to the less than stellar sales of the last 2 Metroid Prime titles and only really put the series on ice for a bit

Now that I'll give you as Zelda tends to be a hardware seller, even late into the console lifespan but Skyward Sword sort of came and went with minimal impact and has a mixed reception at best
 
Oct 22, 2018
545
2010 did have some great games, as did 2011. Galaxy 2, DKC Returns, and the Kirby games were all star titles.

But Nintendo definitely showed they were losing their way compared to the start of the generation with Wii Play: Motion, Metroid: Other M, and Skyward Sword, all of which were terrible sequels.
It's not like the first Wii Play was that good.
 
Nov 20, 2017
2,421
Wii Play: Motion was too irrelevant to damage the brand. I honestly forgot it was even a thing till you brought it up
Irrelevance is the worst thing that can happen to a brand.

Metroid Other M hurt the Metroid brand more so than the Wii and, even then, the change came in no small part to the less than stellar sales of the last 2 Metroid Prime titles and only really put the series on ice for a bit
You don't think that being shackled to a bunch of shitty first-party games hurt Wii in its later years?

Now that I'll give you as Zelda tends to be a hardware seller, even late into the console lifespan but Skyward Sword sort of came and went with minimal impact and has a mixed reception at best
To be fair to Skyward Sword, it was only the latest in a long line of Zelda games that weren't anywhere near their potential.

But that doesn't mean that Nintendo releasing it wasn't bad for the brand.

It's not like the first Wii Play was that good.
It was perfectly adequate at being what it was: a reason to get your family members to pick up a Wii Remote who might not have otherwise.

Wii Play: Motion was a trash heap that didn't even fulfill this wrt Wii MotionPlus, even though that's clearly what they wanted it to do.
 
Oct 26, 2017
3,980
Irrelevance is the worst thing that can happen to a brand.

You don't think that being shackled to a bunch of shitty first-party games hurt Wii in its later years?

To be fair to Skyward Sword, it was only the latest in a long line of Zelda games that weren't anywhere near their potential.

But that doesn't mean that Nintendo releasing it wasn't bad for the brand.
Only a portion of those Wii series games were notable to begin with, mainly Wii Sports, Wii Fit, and Wii Sports Resort. I don't think Wii Play: Motion had much of an effect in general as the only reason the first one sold anything at all was because it came with a Wiimote

When only a few were truly shitty and, for at least one of them, was a title with a mixed reception at worst, not really. You're mixing in too much of your own personal opinion into it. The lack of quality support overall and the Wii's main appeal wearing thin overall had far more to do with the Wii's decline than anything, neither of which should be issues for the Switch

I'd say Skyward Sword mainly hurt the brand by not helping the Wii from declining ever more significantly that year and being overshadowed by other fantasy games, such as Dark Souls and Skyrim, but even that wasn't anywhere near as hurtful as what I previously mentioned
 
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Dec 10, 2017
3,662
2010 did have some great games, as did 2011. Galaxy 2, DKC Returns, and the Kirby games were all star titles.

But Nintendo definitely showed they were losing their way compared to the start of the generation with Wii Play: Motion, Metroid: Other M, and Skyward Sword, all of which were terrible sequels.
Going to have to disagree since Skyward Sword scores almost the same as Twilight Princess and won several GOY. So it wasn’t some huge backlash, especially when Nintendo said themselves that they have been trying to make Zelda more opened since WW, but didn’t have the hardware to do it unto the Wii U.

Compared to Other M that scored noticeably lower than Prime 3.
 
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Dec 10, 2017
3,662
Only a portion of those Wii series games were notable to begin with, mainly Wii Sports, Wii Fit, and Wii Sports Resort. I don't think Wii Play: Motion had much of an effect in general as the only reason the first one sold anything at all was because it came with a Wiimote

When only a few were truly shitty and, for at least one of them, was a title with a mixed reception at worst, not really. You're mixing in too much of your own personal opinion into it. The lack of quality support overall and the Wii's main appeal wearing thin overall had far more to do with the Wii's decline than anything, neither of which should be issues for the Switch

I'd say Skyward Sword mainly hurt the brand by not helping the Wii from declining ever more significantly that year and being overshadowed by other fantasy games, such as Dark Souls and Skyrim, but even that wasn't anywhere near as hurtful as what I previously mentioned
Not really overshadowed since Skyward Sword won some GOY over those games.

And Skyward Sword hardly hurt the brand when it still was the fastest selling Zelda game even when Nintendo left the Wii to die in 2011.
 
Oct 26, 2017
3,980
Not really overshadowed since Skyward Sword won some GOY over those games.

And Skyward Sword hardly hurt the brand when it still was the fastest selling Zelda game even when Nintendo left the Wii to die in 2011.
But it received far less than expected out of a series like Zelda. It won a few but not much

I don't think it hurt the Wii, as the Wii had long since peaked, as much as do little to help out the Wii at that point in time
 
Dec 10, 2017
3,662
But it received far less than expected out of a series like Zelda. It won a few but not much

I don't think it hurt the Wii, as the Wii had long since peaked, as much as do little to help out the Wii at that point in time
Still won despite those other games you mentioned. I remember since there was a lot of salt over that.

That and a lot of Zelda games actually don’t win a lot of awards like Majora’s Mask, Wind Waker, and almost all the handheld games. Out of the Zelda games: Ocarina of Time, Twilight Princess, and Breath of the Wild got a lot of rewards.

Not counting Zelda 1 to Link to the Past since those games predate mainstream awards.
 
Jan 16, 2018
4,663
Nintendo will actually have the biggest gain when they release their Switch 2 sometime in 2023 or 2024, thanks to mobile devices already catching up to the PS4 Vanilla System in terms of raw power.
Raw power has never been the deciding factor in console wars. Just look at the ColecoVision, Neo*Geo, 3DO, or Gamecube.

But Nintendo definitely showed they were losing their way compared to the start of the generation with Wii Play: Motion, Metroid: Other M, and Skyward Sword, all of which were terrible sequels.
Outside of Skyward Sword, all of those franchises had small and/or fickle audiences (yes, I'm going there). And I maintain that Skyward Sword was a decent game overall, albeit linear as hell.

Just long enough to get Microsoft and Sony to jump on the bandwagon, all according to keikaku.
 
Oct 27, 2017
142
My dream for next NPD thread and all the others going forward would be to have a modified soundclip of Starcraft saying "NPD good to go sir!" in the OP.
 
Oct 26, 2017
3,980
Still won despite those other games you mentioned. I remember since there was a lot of salt over that.

That and a lot of Zelda games actually don’t win a lot of awards like Majora’s Mask, Wind Waker, and almost all the handheld games. Out of the Zelda games: Ocarina of Time, Twilight Princess, and Breath of the Wild got a lot of rewards.

Not counting Zelda 1 to Link to the Past since those games predate mainstream awards.
A Nintendo game winning any award in general will naturally bring out a lot of salt :P

There is that but I'd argue that, considering the prestige the series holds, it's a bit odd that their main 3D entries aren't as big contenders for GotY as you'd think they would