NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month

Nov 18, 2017
1,120
It did 20 million once.
It won’t be close to 20 million anymore.
I see 12 million next year and 8 million after that.

But I agree, 120 should be fine. I expect 125 to 127
- 2019 : 104 million total
- 2020 : 112 million total
- 2021 : 118 million total
- 2022 to 2025 : 125-27 million LTD
That's why I said nearly 20m, it's averaged 18m p/y - and as I said hasn't been price dropped much...I think it has longer legs than you're predicting due to the price drop options...I'm certainly expecting it to get past 130m, it's currently tracking ahead of PS2 - even if it slows much quicker I project something like this;

 
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Ex-Actarus

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That's why I said nearly 20m, it's averaged 18m p/y - and as I said hasn't been price dropped much...I think it has longer legs than you're predicting due to the price drop options...I'm certainly expecting it to get past 130m, it's currently tracking ahead of PS2 - even if it slows much quicker I project something like this;

135 million ? No way.
That means the PS4 would still sell 45M more units ? I don’t see that happening.

Even if it’s ahead of the PS2, I expect a drastic decline as it’s been the case for pretty much all consoles ( expect the PS2 ).
 
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Oct 25, 2017
1,928
135 million ? No way.
That means would do 45 more million ? I don’t see that happening.

Even if it’s ahead of the PS2, I expect a drastic decline as it’s been the case for pretty much all consoles ( expect the PS2 ).
Well and PS1. PS1 shipped over 30 million units after launch of PS2.
 
Oct 25, 2017
10,405
Yes.
During decline most of the sales happens during pricecuts and holidays. Outside of that, it’s going to be a very important decline... I think the KEY numbers will be for January, February and March. Let see how the PS4 does.
I think PS4 does well the first 3-4 months of this year. Lots of quality software is launching. In fact, I expect it to outsell Switch at least twice in this period. I think late spring and summer is when we’ll really start to notice a decline

(unless TLoU 2 launches, somehow)

Well and PS1. PS1 shipped over 30 million units after launch of PS2.
So, when do you think Sony drops PS4’s price to $99?
 

Benji

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Oct 25, 2017
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PS4 still has a ton of life left in it.

I'm expecting a pretty large drop in 2019 but I still think they can get 14-15m or so shipped this year. That's still great
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,825
135 million ? No way.
That means the PS4 would still sell 45M more units ? I don’t see that happening.

Even if it’s ahead of the PS2, I expect a drastic decline as it’s been the case for pretty much all consoles ( expect the PS2 ).
I don’t think next gen condoles will stop ps4. Next gen is going to be more of a mid gen upgrade this time and with streaming services in the mix I can see PS4 selling for a long while and also get decent support.
 
Oct 27, 2017
8,131
Well and PS1. PS1 shipped over 30 million units after launch of PS2.
They sold the PSone for sub 100 bucks at that point - i doubt the PS4 will be anywhere close to that cheap since Sony want people to upgrade to the Next-Gen as fast as possible.
The PS4 will also have much more competition in the entry-mainstream market with mobile and Switch - consoles selling this well longer after the new system is out probably wont happen anymore on this scale.

But yeah if Sony wants the PS4 to go on longer ans is ready to make it attractive even compared to the PS5 - yeah it could have very long legs.
 
Nov 2, 2017
10,010
Yes.
During decline most of the sales happens during pricecuts and holidays. Outside of that, it’s going to be a very important decline... I think the KEY numbers will be for January, February and March. Let see how the PS4 does.
That still seems like a big drop, I’m expecting them to do more promotions this year than last, don’t people also expect a super slim model still? That should surly give it more life.

Anyone has the sales of the 5th and 6th year of PlayStation consoles to see how big the drop was?
 

Benji

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Oct 25, 2017
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The first half of the year PS4 (and Xbox One) is most likely to be really down as Fortnite was really moving hardware during the slower times of the year in 2018

Not to mention God of War
 
Nov 18, 2017
1,120
135 million ? No way.
That means the PS4 would still sell 45M more units ? I don’t see that happening.

Even if it’s ahead of the PS2, I expect a drastic decline as it’s been the case for pretty much all consoles ( expect the PS2 ).
I think it'll be closer to my 135m than your 127m :)

Don't forget they haven't hit $200 for anything other than a small promotion, and also they have big hitters still to come. Another factor people are not considering is that if PS5 is BC then that fact might help PS4 have longer legs as people might buy into the PlayStation ecosystem with a view to getting PS5 down the line and taking their library with them.

I just don't see the PS4 only selling ~35m between now and end of life.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,928
They sold the PSone for sub 100 bucks at that point - i doubt the PS4 will be anywhere close to that cheap since Sony want people to upgrade to the Next-Gen as fast as possible.
The PS4 will also have much more competition in the entry-mainstream market with mobile and Switch - consoles selling this well longer after the new system is out probably wont happen anymore on this scale.

But yeah if Sony wants the PS4 to go on longer ans is ready to make it attractive even compared to the PS5 - yeah it could have very long legs.
I mean it won't get to $99 (adjusted to inflation $99 in 2001 is $140 today so it's harder and harder to hit sub $100) but if they want to keep cheap entry level device (so selling it with low hardware margins) even after launch of PS5 to get people in the ecosystem I could see PS4 having pretty long life. Especially in developing markets where price is bigger factor and where Sony has been traditionally strong.
 
Nov 18, 2017
1,120
The first half of the year PS4 (and Xbox One) is most likely to be really down as Fortnite was really moving hardware during the slower times of the year in 2018

Not to mention God of War
Granted, and I bow to your vastly superior knowledge, but a price drop would likely keep PS4 going this year and then we have some pretty big titles coming
 
Oct 27, 2017
8,131
I mean it won't get to $99 (adjusted to inflation $99 in 2001 is $140 today so it's harder and harder to hit sub $100) but if they want to keep cheap entry level device (so selling it with low hardware margins) even after launch of PS5 to get people in the ecosystem I could see PS4 having pretty long life. Especially in developing markets where price is bigger factor and where Sony has been traditionally strong.
Yeah it depends on what they will be able to offer with the PS5 - if they have already a entry model/cheaper PS5 like MS will likely offer then we wont see them pushing the PS4 too strong post PS5 release. Add in the fact that the new system will likely have full BC i think a faster transition than usual is likely.

If Sony only offers a traditional PS5 console at 400 bucks keeping the PS4 (+VR) as an attractive entry price model to their eco system will be more important...true.
 
Oct 27, 2017
5,146
Yes.
During decline most of the sales happens during pricecuts and holidays. Outside of that, it’s going to be a very important decline... I think the KEY numbers will be for January, February and March. Let see how the PS4 does.
The decline won’t be that drastic, especially if TLoU2 releases or if Dreams and Days Gone are hits. Or if sony hits that magic $199
 

Ex-Actarus

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I think PS4 does well the first 3-4 months of this year. Lots of quality software is launching. In fact, I expect it to outsell Switch at least twice in this period. I think late spring and summer is when we’ll really start to notice a decline

(unless TLoU 2 launches, somehow)
The PS4 won’t be in front of the Switch anymore, expect pricecut. There are many good titles incoming, but no killer ap like God of War, Spideman or Read Dead 2.

The Switch will sell 25 million next year. The PS4 days as the Number 1 console ended up in December 2018. But what a ride it was.
 
Oct 25, 2017
10,405
The PS4 won’t be in front of the Switch anymore, expect pricecut. There are many good titles incoming, but no killer ap like God of War, Spideman or Read Dead 2.

The Switch will sell 25 million next year. The PS4 days as the Number 1 console ended up in December 2018. But what a ride it was.
I think Switch has most months of 2019 in the bag but not all of them.
 

Benji

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Oct 25, 2017
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Granted, and I bow to your vastly superior knowledge, but a price drop would likely keep PS4 going this year and then we have some pretty big titles coming
Its still going very strong. If they can manage a 14-15m year in 2019 like I'm expecting that's still massive this late in the cycle

It's just the decline is definitely setting in and 2018 is going to be a very difficult comp this year. People still dont get how much Fortnite moved hardware. It was probably the biggest hardware mover of the entire gen
 

Ex-Actarus

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The decline won’t be that drastic, especially if TLoU2 releases or if Dreams and Days Gone are hits. Or if sony hits that magic $199
Dreams and Days Gone ?
You really think those games would move units ? I don’t think so.
TLOU 2 will be a holiday title and no problem to sell the PS4 during the holiday season.
 
Nov 1, 2017
486
Oct 25, 2017
1,928
So, when do you think Sony drops PS4’s price to $99?
It wont need to get that low as people also have way more buying power than back in late PS1 days ($99 in 2001 in US is same as $140 today) . Personally lowest I can see is $149 somewhere around 2021 if flash memory has gotten cheap enough and they can replace traditional HDD with something like 256Gb (or 512Gb) of flash memory (I also think they will launch Super Slim PS4 (7nm) this year). This is of course only if they are willing to use PS1/PS2 pricing strategy with PS4 after PS5 launch.


Yeah it depends on what they will be able to offer with the PS5 - if they have already a entry model/cheaper PS5 like MS will likely offer then we wont see them pushing the PS4 too strong post PS5 release. Add in the fact that the new system will likely have full BC i think a faster transition than usual is likely.

If Sony only offers a traditional PS5 console at 400 bucks keeping the PS4 (+VR) as an attractive entry price model to their eco system will be more important...true.
I would imagine that also digital playing bigger role in distribution of games will help to keep cheaply priced PS4 more desirable for longer. In the past new gen launching meant that older consoles had less and less shelf space for games and if you bought old console years after launch of successor you kinda had to buy games used and that made barrier higher for anyone to buy older consoles. Now you can probably buy every single PS4 game even 5 years after launch of PS5 digitally (and probably very cheaply). But yeah it really depends what Sony does with PS4 (and PS5 like you said). Do they sell it cheap like with PS1 and PS2 and keep it alive as entry level device for years or will they kill it after the new gen launch like with PS3.
 
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Feb 26, 2018
1,449
TLoUII will carry PS4 next year but the drop is inevitable. Still I believe PS4 will sell 130m LT
Days Gone may impact HW sales if it's good. Don't believe it will but who knows
 
Dec 4, 2018
978
Spiderman is the kind of cross-public exclusive that sells consoles.

TLOU2 is the kind of exclusive that is gonna sell millions but appeals to hardcore gamers that most likely already have a PS4. It's not gonna be a comparable system seller.
 
Oct 27, 2017
6,142
I Read, but the graph was just t confirm that 2018 was PS4 second best year, so that was not a satire but a fact.
What does that have to do with PS4 having its second best year though?
It's probably because as late as post BF when Benji said PS4 sold most, but all 3 were close, it wasn't certain Nintendo would sell the most in 2018 with a massive December so there was a lot of pre gloating. I mean we still don't know the final tally.
 
Oct 25, 2017
10,405
Spiderman is the kind of cross-public exclusive that sells consoles.

TLOU2 is the kind of exclusive that is gonna sell millions but appeals to hardcore gamers that most likely already have a PS4. It's not gonna be a comparable system seller.
It will probably have a similar effect as God of War did. Meaning it will move a lot of hardware.
 
Oct 28, 2017
6,237
It's probably because as late as post BF when Benji said PS4 sold most, but all 3 were close, it wasn't certain Nintendo would sell the most in 2018 with a massive December so there was a lot of pre gloating. I mean we still don't know the final tally.
I think you're all slightly confused. That poster was talking about Sony havung its 2nd best calender year for the PS4 worldwide. They were not talking about NPD numbers or comparing to the Switch.

The Switch is certainly going to be the best selling system of the year.
 
Oct 26, 2017
100
Quick hypothetical question about PS4:

If you are Sony what would you prefer for 2019, about 12 millions sales for the PS4 priced at 300$ or price cut the console to 200$ and keep it at 18-20 million yearly?
 
Dec 4, 2018
978
It will probably have a similar effect as God of War did. Meaning it will move a lot of hardware.
GoW, serious as it is, is about killing monsters in an epic, colorful, mythical adventure.

TLOU2 is a gritty, ultra violent (and realistic) stealth zombie shooter that highlights the worst of humanity in the bleakest setting imaginable.

Not comparable in wide appeal imo.
 

Ex-Actarus

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Its still going very strong. If they can manage a 14-15m year in 2019 like I'm expecting that's still massive this late in the cycle

It's just the decline is definitely setting in and 2018 is going to be a very difficult comp this year. People still dont get how much Fortnite moved hardware. It was probably the biggest hardware mover of the entire gen
Benji, do you think Fornite had an impact on potential higher PS4 sales in 2018 because it was also released on the Switch ?
 
Oct 25, 2017
10,405
GoW, serious as it is, is about killing monsters in an epic, colorful, mythical adventure.

TLOU2 is a gritty, ultra violent (and realistic) stealth zombie shooter that highlights the worst of humanity in the bleakest setting imaginable.

Not comparable in wide appeal imo.
Both are ultra-violent M-rated games. They're aiming for the same demographic. The Last of Us is one of the most beloved games in recent memory. And its sequel is going to move hardware.

We have this type of discussion with almost every major upcoming release ("everyone who wants this game already owns x console") and it's never true.
 
Oct 27, 2017
5,146
Dreams and Days Gone ?
You really think those games would move units ? I don’t think so.
TLOU 2 will be a holiday title and no problem to sell the PS4 during the holiday season.
Days gone, if it reviews well and Sony markets it right....absolutely. I could see it doing GOW number tbh. Era if way off the mark for that game.

Dreams is more a mystery. I don’t really believe it will but I could see it catching on and becoming a mega success.

You estimated 33% decline YOY is too much. I’m guessing around 17% decline and around 15M
 
Oct 25, 2017
14,786
If the PS4 has an actual permanent price drop next year then I can see it having a very soft drop from this year. Which would be crazy impressive.

But I think at its current price the drop will be a fair bit more substantial. It all depends on whether or not they want to lower the price.
 
Oct 25, 2017
10,405
It certain will, but not at the same pace as Spiderman or GoW. That's my prediction.
The only reason it's probably not going to move numbers as high as GoW is due to the stage of the PS4's lifecycle the game is launching in. When you take that into account though, it will have a similar impact.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,928
If the PS4 has an actual permanent price drop next year then I can see it having a very soft drop from this year. Which would be crazy impressive.

But I think at its current price the drop will be a fair bit more substantial. It all depends on whether or not they want to lower the price.
I am almost willing to bet my balls that there will be new Super Slim this year with 7nm node (and with that price drop). Even PS3 got its third revision.
 
Oct 26, 2017
4,600
I am almost willing to bet my balls that there will be new Super Slim this year with 7nm node (and with that price drop). Even PS3 got its third revision.
I wonder though. Would another price drop and revision really help out that much at this late in its life? I just kind of get the feeling that it'll help out a bit initially before the PS5 / XB2 come out and the PS4 / XB1's sales fall off hard, like the PS3 / 360
 
Oct 25, 2017
14,786
I am almost willing to bet my balls that there will be new Super Slim this year with 7nm node (and with that price drop). Even PS3 got its third revision.
I feel like those kinds of bets are frowned upon here.

But yeah, that seems likely. They'll want a cheaper product that can sell fairly well throughout the first few years of the PS5's life.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,928
I wonder though. Would another price drop and revision really help out that much at this late in its life? I just kind of get the feeling that it'll help out a bit initially before the PS5 / XB2 come out and the PS4 / XB1's sales fall off hard, like the PS3 / 360
Well as we saw again during this November that especially PS4 had plenty of demand with cheap price I would say yes if they do it this year. Of course more time goes on smaller the impact will be. And these revisions themselves are not supposed to really move hardware. It's the lower price that they allow as it's cheaper to manufacture them.


I feel like those kinds of bets are frowned upon here.

But yeah, that seems likely. They'll want a cheaper product that can sell fairly well throughout the first few years of the PS5's life.
Oh. Well then I just say that I will predict that there is new cheaper model launching this year lol.