NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month

Saint-14

Member
Nov 2, 2017
10,916
TLoU sold +17 million and still charting to this day btw, people shouldn’t underestimate its selling power, if it’s coming this year then it’s launch month should cause comparable bump to hardware as GoW and Spider-Man.
 

Ex-Actarus

Member
Dec 7, 2017
5,892
Spain
Days gone, if it reviews well and Sony markets it right....absolutely. I could see it doing GOW number tbh. Era if way off the mark for that game.

Dreams is more a mystery. I don’t really believe it will but I could see it catching on and becoming a mega success.

You estimated 33% decline YOY is too much. I’m guessing around 17% decline and around 15M
Honestly forget God of War numbers. Not only Days Gone is a new IP, but Sony Bend is not the best Sony studio out there. I really like them, but they’re not Santa Monica, Naughty Dog or Guerilla...

So I don’t expect a high Metacritic score. Besides the game did not really received positive vibe from previews. The game is not a looker and it is suffering from comparison - not fair imo - to the Last of Us.
 
Oct 26, 2017
5,314
Well as we saw again during this November that especially PS4 had plenty of demand with cheap price I would say yes if they do it this year. Of course more time goes on smaller the impact will be. And these revisions themselves are not supposed to really move hardware. It's the lower price that they allow as it's cheaper to manufacture them.
I'd argue that would've been the case for any system with a good deal bundled with a high profile title but I'll concede it does also show that, yeah, a cheaper price will help out a fair amount. I just figured it wouldn't help out too much as they enter the endgame with the PS4 and the PS5 / XB2 loom in the distance
 

Tofer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,525
Honestly forget God of War numbers. Not only Days Gone is a new IP, but Sony Bend is not the best Sony studio out there. I really like them, but they’re not Santa Monica, Naughty Dog or Guerilla...

So I don’t expect a high Metacritic score. Besides the game did not really received positive vibe from previews. The game is not a looker and it is suffering from comparison - not fair imo - to the Last of Us.
Latest impressions have been good. Not sure where you are getting that. It was even a hit at TGS
 
Oct 26, 2017
5,314
TLoU sold +17 million and still charting to this day btw, people shouldn’t underestimate its selling power, if it’s coming this year then it’s launch month should cause comparable bump to hardware as GoW and Spider-Man.
Is that on the PS4 or the PS3 alone or is that after combining their total, which is what I'm expecting?
 

sheepysheep

Member
Nov 19, 2018
153
Benji Would love to hear about any early indications on how New Super Marios Bros U Deluxe is doing as they come in over the weekend and if it's acutally driving Switch sales - or if people are all bought out from the massive December.
 

Ex-Actarus

Member
Dec 7, 2017
5,892
Spain
Latest impressions have been good. Not sure where you are getting that. It was even a hit at TGS
I’m not saying Days Gone is bad or anything. I simply don’t see any enthusiasm or hype for that game. The game was a hit at TGS ? How ? Rarely western games are hit at TGS...

Anyway, I’m not hating. But don’t expect it to be the God of War of 2019 for Sony. It won’t be. Nobody has those expectations.
 
Last edited:

JusDoIt

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,661
South Central Los Angeles
nor is that 17+ million figure really all that representative of the number of people who bought the game for the first time. It'd be like combining the Mario Kart 8 totals from the Wii U and the Switch
Sales are sales, tho. This is done with multiplatform games all the time. I’ve bought the same game on PS4 and Switch a few times. Those sales count. The same rules apply when the multiple platforms cross generations.
 

pld

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,120
Since I was not around here during the PS3 era, did The Last of Us have a huge impact on hardware?
 

Saint-14

Member
Nov 2, 2017
10,916
I figured as much because I don't see TLoU 2 selling anywhere near 17+ million nor is that 17+ million figure really all that representative of the number of people who bought the game for the first time. It'd be like combining the Mario Kart 8 totals from the Wii U and the Switch
Oh it will definitely do +15 million, the game released at the end of PS3’s life and the remaster launched a year after that, the situations aren’t really comparable, it’s up to Nintendo if they want to count it, you also shouldn’t really be underselling Sony exclusives this gen and certainly not something as big as TLoU.
 

Mbolibombo

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,337
Honestly, I wouldnt want to say anything about the legs of PS4 after the release of PS5 until I know what the PS5 actually is :P

Bulk of the remaining sales should be for 2019-2020 at least. I cant think we're going to see PS2 like legs though.
 

Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
6,717
I dont think double dipping culture is as big as some people think it is tbh. Especially for single player games.
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
192
Spiderman is the kind of cross-public exclusive that sells consoles.

TLOU2 is the kind of exclusive that is gonna sell millions but appeals to hardcore gamers that most likely already have a PS4. It's not gonna be a comparable system seller.
I know the bolded is a polarizing topic here, but assuming this effect is real (effect: "late-cycle software will push less hardware due to larger install-base"), I think the Pro models help mitigate against this.

Folks will upgrade from PS4 > PS4 Pro, which softens the effect of a large install base. Personal anecdote - I did exactly this for RDR2 (nabbed a bundle on launch).

If the Pro also drops in price, or gets a slim revision in the next few years, that's only going to help the sales-tail even further. At that point it'll come down to software release flow after the PS5 launch. If PS5 drops in Q4 2019, that's a >100M install base with a growing portion of that being the PS4 Pro. If its sometime in 2020, that's a ~110M base.
 

goonergaz

Member
Nov 18, 2017
1,162
I wonder though. Would another price drop and revision really help out that much at this late in its life? I just kind of get the feeling that it'll help out a bit initially before the PS5 / XB2 come out and the PS4 / XB1's sales fall off hard, like the PS3 / 360
Absolutely, it's not hit sub $200 so there's plenty of people who haven't either jumped in or bought more units for the house (ie one for little johnnys bedroom).

People seem to really underestimate the legs of PS4.
 

goonergaz

Member
Nov 18, 2017
1,162
Latest impressions have been good. Not sure where you are getting that. It was even a hit at TGS
Yeah, I don't think it'll shift a load of units though...

I know the bolded is a polarizing topic here, but assuming this effect is real (effect: "late-cycle software will push less hardware due to larger install-base"), I think the Pro models help mitigate against this.

Folks will upgrade from PS4 > PS4 Pro, which softens the effect of a large install base. Personal anecdote - I did exactly this for RDR2 (nabbed a bundle on launch).

If the Pro also drops in price, or gets a slim revision in the next few years, that's only going to help the sales-tail even further. At that point it'll come down to software release flow after the PS5 launch. If PS5 drops in Q4 2019, that's a >100M install base with a growing portion of that being the PS4 Pro. If its sometime in 2020, that's a ~110M base.
Another unknown is the Pro effect - this is the first time such a console exists and who knows how that's skewing figures.
 

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,867
I explained this before, but Sony doesn't have much incentive in selling the PS4 at a discounted price this late in the cycle.

They are gearing up for the next generation, have massive R&D costs to cover, and most likely will be taking a loss on PS5 hardware for a while upon release (as most console manufacturers do on launch). Why take any risks with losing money on selling discounted PS4s when they can coast on strong software releases and the dividends of a really popular system?

It would be like day trading as someone who is about to retire rather than living off of a more stable income.
 

goonergaz

Member
Nov 18, 2017
1,162
Who is doing that. I'm not seeing any of that. Only thing I'm seeing is people being far too optimistic given cyclicality, slate and next gen announcements.
IMO Ex-Actarus and potentially Benji (more implication that statement)

So what are your guesstimates over the next 4/5 years for PS4? What side of the 130m fence are you on?
 

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,119
I have PS4 US units dropping about 7% in 2019, another 15% in 2020, then another 24% in 2021, an additional 30% in 2022 and market exit. Shrug.

I don't track or forecast WW totals, so I'm not too interested in the fence.
 

nib95

Member
Oct 28, 2017
9,675
I have PS4 US units dropping about 7% in 2019, another 15% in 2020, then another 24% in 2021, an additional 30% in 2022 and market exit. Shrug.

I don't track or forecast WW totals, so I'm not too interested in the fence.
Presumably this is you taking into account any subsequent price drops etc? Especially given a 7% drop for 2019 (6 years into a consoles life) isn't much of a drop all things considered.
 

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,119
Presumably this is you taking into account any subsequent price drops etc? Especially given a 7% drop for 2019 (6 years into a consoles life) isn't much at all.
I lean optimistic on hardware these days given what we've been seeing. Downside case could result in declines of 25%, give or take. But I don't think that's super likely.
 

Tofer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,525
I have PS4 US units dropping about 7% in 2019, another 15% in 2020, then another 24% in 2021, an additional 30% in 2022 and market exit. Shrug.

I don't track or forecast WW totals, so I'm not too interested in the fence.
This seems more realistic, if anything too optimistic. I think others were referring to people predicting 30% declines for 2019.
 

Benji

US Sales Specialist
Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,075
IMO Ex-Actarus and potentially Benji (more implication that statement)

So what are your guesstimates over the next 4/5 years for PS4? What side of the 130m fence are you on?
PS4 dropped by 2 million units YoY. This is despite God of War and Spider-Man having record setting performances and Fortnite pushing huge amounts of hardware throughout the year and Monster Hunter World pushing a ton of hardware in Japan.

If anything me predicting it being down only 3-4 million from that is realistic, if anything optimistic
 

nib95

Member
Oct 28, 2017
9,675
PS4 dropped by 2 million units YoY. This is despite God of War and Spider-Man having record setting performances and Fortnite pushing huge amounts of hardware throughout the year and Monster Hunter World pushing a ton of hardware in Japan.

If anything me predicting it being down only 3-4 million from that is realistic, if anything optimistic
But that is 5 years in, with no major price cut. I'd imagine the cost of the console is holding it back somewhat, but I'm guessing Sony is going for profit over volume.
 

Benji

US Sales Specialist
Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,075
But that is 5 years in, with no major price cut. I'd imagine the cost of the console is holding it back somewhat, but I'm guessing Sony is going for profit over volume.
As Mat noted, price sensitivity isnt as big a factor as people think it is.

A price drop will definitely help soften the drop and I'm expecting one. $249.99 will likely happen sometime this year.

I just think people expecting a marginal drop or it somehow even being up are waaaaay too optimistic
 

nib95

Member
Oct 28, 2017
9,675
As Mat noted, price sensitivity isnt as big a factor as people think it is.

A price drop will definitely help soften the drop and I'm expecting one. $249.99 will likely happen sometime this year.

I just think people expecting a marginal drop or it somehow even being up are waaaaay too optimistic
I actually thought Mat's drop percentage for 2019 seemed a bit optimistic if anything. 6 years in, with a new gen rumoured around the corner, a massive install base already, I just can't see it continuing to claw in the sort of sales volume it has been, unless it hits impulse buy pricing, but what do I know lol.
 
Last edited:

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,119
My hardware forecasts are generally pretty good, get less error than most analysts. However, range of error on any video game related forecast is always higher than compared to other industries. And I probably have some recency bias as well as potentially swinging too far towards optimism after my forecast in both 2017 and 2018 for PS4 ended up being too conservative. As with any VG forecast, as long as you end up in the ballpark it's pretty good. But, sure, my current outlook could be too optimistic. Numbers are hard.
 

goonergaz

Member
Nov 18, 2017
1,162
I have PS4 US units dropping about 7% in 2019, another 15% in 2020, then another 24% in 2021, an additional 30% in 2022 and market exit. Shrug.

I don't track or forecast WW totals, so I'm not too interested in the fence.
You can simply put your figure to WW - I don't see an issue with that, I appreciate not all regions react the same but using that you're talking ~16.5m to 14m to 10.5m (I've assumed YoY) - so there's around 40m which hits 130m

PS4 dropped by 2 million units YoY. This is despite God of War and Spider-Man having record setting performances and Fortnite pushing huge amounts of hardware throughout the year and Monster Hunter World pushing a ton of hardware in Japan.

If anything me predicting it being down only 3-4 million from that is realistic, if anything optimistic
Oh yeah, I think it's crossed wires - I was talking about the PS4 lifetime you only quoted one year, which I thought was optimistic, however the context seemed to be within it being unlikely to hit 130m (which I mayb took the wrong way)
 

Hero

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,973
2019 doesn’t have God of War or a game that can replicate the success of Fortnite in the first half and it’s up in the air if LoU2 makes it this year, and even then I doubt it has an impact that Spider-man did. No RDR2 type of game either. Mat and Benji are being optimistic about the drop, IMO, even with a price drop factored into the equation. If(when) they announce PS5 this year I think it’s going to impact sales of PS4 as well.
 

julian

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,410
Why doesn’t Sony just drop the price? The GameCube flew off shelves when it dropped to $100. I’m sure the Wii U would’ve done the same if they simply dropped the price. So silly of them.

/s
 
Oct 26, 2017
5,314
Sales are sales, tho. This is done with multiplatform games all the time. I’ve bought the same game on PS4 and Switch a few times. Those sales count. The same rules apply when the multiple platforms cross generations.
No one's saying they don't count. I'm just saying it's a bit silly to tout the combined sales of a game that has a huge amount of crossover as Sony's biggest game ever

Oh it will definitely do +15 million, the game released at the end of PS3’s life and the remaster launched a year after that, the situations aren’t really comparable, it’s up to Nintendo if they want to count it, you also shouldn’t really be underselling Sony exclusives this gen and certainly not something as big as TLoU.
I'm not underselling Sony's exclusives. I have no doubt TLoU 2 is going to do great, like 10+ million. I'm just saying it doesn't make sense to combine both of their numbers and use that as an indication of how well TLoU 2 will do on the PS4 alone as there is going to be a huge amount of crossover between the people who bought TLoU on the PS3 and the PS4
 
Last edited:
Oct 26, 2017
5,314
Absolutely, it's not hit sub $200 so there's plenty of people who haven't either jumped in or bought more units for the house (ie one for little johnnys bedroom).

People seem to really underestimate the legs of PS4.
Hey, I've consistently said that the PS4 is a beast in terms of sales. I just don't think its unreasonable to say that the PS4 will naturally begin to sell less and less at this point in its life and that there aren't as many folk left to sell the system to. At this point, price drops are mainly to slow the decline. I'd say 120+ million is a given by the end