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NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month

Oct 25, 2017
3,415
At this point Sony all about profit and they going to sell over 100 million units anyway .
They really have no need to drop the price to much .
Unless PS4 sales drop really hard but if PS5 out by then i don't think it will bother them to much .
 
Oct 29, 2017
1,830
That's confusion since people here are posting that Switch was #1 in 2018 as it is a fact.
Not sure where the worldwide rumblings are coming from but if what all the insiders have been hinting at and what to make from Sonys end of the year PR it's very likely that the Switch is at least #1 in the US. But yes, nothing is confirmed and thus all should be considered speculation or rumor as of right now.
 
Dec 10, 2017
3,653
Not sure where the worldwide rumblings are coming from but if what all the insiders have been hinting at and what to make from Sonys end of the year PR it's very likely that the Switch is at least #1 in the US. But yes, nothing is confirmed and thus all should be considered speculation or rumor as of right now.
If Switch is #1 in the US, chances are fairly good that it's #1 worldwide since we know that the Switch outsold the PS4 by a nice margin in Japan and the Switch did good in Europe thanks to France, although PS4 took that region overall.
 
Oct 29, 2017
119
On this topic, the figure to look for from Nintendo's Q3 Supplementary Info (probably coming first few days of February) is LTD sell-through, not just shipped total.

Switch global hardware sell-through was >13M through the end of 2017 last year (link - pg. 3 of 17).

So to match/surpass PS4's 18M global sell-through in calendar 2018, Switch global LTD sell through would need to be >31M.

If Q3 ends up at 10-11M shipped, that puts global LTD shipped at 32.8 - 33.8M, which would mean >31M sold to consumers is feasible.
 
Jan 2, 2019
39
I have one word for you: subscriptions.
Word on the street is that Microsoft is going to be announcing a streaming only box. I imagine that would be subscription based and I imagine it's not going to cost $299. But I don't know how subscription revenue from streaming will match retail/digital revenue and profits, so that's not a given.
 
Jan 10, 2018
413
France
My hardware forecasts are generally pretty good, get less error than most analysts. However, range of error on any video game related forecast is always higher than compared to other industries.
Interesting, is there any particular reason for this ? Are gamers somewhat more unpredictable than others when it comes to their consuming habits ? Or is it explained by something from the developer side ?
I'm asking this, but I'm not even sure there is an answer
 
Oct 27, 2017
3,446
Word on the street is that Microsoft is going to be announcing a streaming only box. I imagine that would be subscription based and I imagine it's not going to cost $299. But I don't know how subscription revenue from streaming will match retail/digital revenue and profits, so that's not a given.
I was really just making a Graduate joke, but ok.
 
Nov 5, 2017
3,830
On this topic, the figure to look for from Nintendo's Q3 Supplementary Info (probably coming first few days of February) is LTD sell-through, not just shipped total.

Switch global hardware sell-through was >13M through the end of 2017 last year (link - pg. 3 of 17).

So to match/surpass PS4's 18M global sell-through in calendar 2018, Switch global LTD sell through would need to be >31M.

If Q3 ends up at 10-11M shipped, that puts global LTD shipped at 32.8 - 33.8M, which would mean >31M sold to consumers is feasible.
Nintendo rarely shares the sell-through figures, so it may not be in the report.
 
Feb 26, 2018
2,322
On this topic, the figure to look for from Nintendo's Q3 Supplementary Info (probably coming first few days of February) is LTD sell-through, not just shipped total.

Switch global hardware sell-through was >13M through the end of 2017 last year (link - pg. 3 of 17).

So to match/surpass PS4's 18M global sell-through in calendar 2018, Switch global LTD sell through would need to be >31M.

If Q3 ends up at 10-11M shipped, that puts global LTD shipped at 32.8 - 33.8M, which would mean >31M sold to consumers is feasible.
nintendo only shares the sell-through of japan, americas and most of europe, not global.
 
Oct 29, 2017
119
Nintendo rarely shares the sell-through figures, so it may not be in the report.
Yup.

nintendo only shares the sell-through of japan, americas and most of europe, not global.
Yeah forgot that footnote. So it seems like this will be undetermined. Sony definitively sold 18M in CY 2018. Nintendo may hit or exceed that number (and perhaps will report themselves as #1 if they do), but we may never know with any accuracy what exactly that figure is.

I guess we'll be able to compare shipped totals for Q4 FY17 and Q1-3 FY18 for both.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,575
Texas
PS4 dropped by 2 million units YoY. This is despite God of War and Spider-Man having record setting performances and Fortnite pushing huge amounts of hardware throughout the year and Monster Hunter World pushing a ton of hardware in Japan.

If anything me predicting it being down only 3-4 million from that is realistic, if anything optimistic
I think you're on point, FWIW
 

MatPiscatella

The NPD Group - Video Game Industry Analyst
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
2,004
Carlsbad, CA
Interesting, is there any particular reason for this ? Are gamers somewhat more unpredictable than others when it comes to their consuming habits ? Or is it explained by something from the developer side ?
I'm asking this, but I'm not even sure there is an answer
Few reasons:

1) Secretive nature of the industry makes assumption estimates difficult. Pricing, availability, timing of bundles, software slates, etc are all fairly unpredictable.
2) We only have monthly data to work with on the physical side, which makes things harder.
3) Consumer reaction to offerings are unpredictable, and assigning quantitative corollary attributes to the offerings themselves is extremely challenging.

Basically, we don't know a lot about what's coming, when it's coming, what it'll be priced at, or whether consumers will care.
 
Jan 10, 2018
413
France
Few reasons:

1) Secretive nature of the industry makes assumption estimates difficult. Pricing, availability, timing of bundles, software slates, etc are all fairly unpredictable.
2) We only have monthly data to work with on the physical side, which makes things harder.
3) Consumer reaction to offerings are unpredictable, and assigning quantitative corollary attributes to the offerings themselves is extremely challenging.

Basically, we don't know a lot about what's coming, when it's coming, what it'll be priced at, or whether consumers will care.
I see, thanks a lot for your insight !
 
Nov 3, 2017
2,233
PS4 dropped by 2 million units YoY. This is despite God of War and Spider-Man having record setting performances and Fortnite pushing huge amounts of hardware throughout the year and Monster Hunter World pushing a ton of hardware in Japan.

If anything me predicting it being down only 3-4 million from that is realistic, if anything optimistic
It´s not like we couldn´t have seen bigger sales, especially in the US, if Sony had been a bit more aggressive with the price. And i don´t see it playing out any different in 2019 either. How big the drop will be in 2019 is going to depend mostly on Sony´s pricing strategy. If they say fuck it we´re going all in on profitability and just keep the PS4 at 299 the drop will be indeed massive.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,575
Texas
I hope PS4 somehow manages a 17-18 million year. It means the industry / platform is insanely healthy

I just find it unlikely
Yeah, I think that the lack of platform defining exclusives coupled with a weak or nonexistent price drop will make sales slow down significantly. I wouldn't be shocked to see 4 or 5m less, honestly (unless they drop the price)
 
Nov 18, 2017
1,099
Someone else can, but I won't. Shrug.
Erm...I did...in the post you're quoting! Lol

I hope PS4 somehow manages a 17-18 million year. It means the industry / platform is insanely healthy

I just find it unlikely
Yeah, it's definitely peeked and other than LoU2 I can't see anything that will shift large amounts. I guess it all comes down to how much Sony can reduce it by as to if it can keep reasonable figures moving forward.
 
Oct 25, 2017
13,128
Why doesn’t Sony just drop the price? The GameCube flew off shelves when it dropped to $100. I’m sure the Wii U would’ve done the same if they simply dropped the price. So silly of them.

/s
Lmao.

This is what confuses me about the “well Sony would’ve won easily if they kept the BF deal!” remarks.

Like, yeah, they all would’ve if they had a deal like that. Kind of a pointless statement
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,415
Lmao.

This is what confuses me about the “well Sony would’ve won easily if they kept the BF deal!” remarks.

Like, yeah, they all would’ve if they had a deal like that. Kind of a pointless statement
That is not the case .
Something has to have demand for that to matter .
Even at $99 the GC had no demand .
PS4 bundles for $199 for both years had huge amount of demand that there were selling out before BF.
XB was under PS4 price ( by $10 ) in 2017 and they get out sold by 350k plus and Sony sold out early .
It's the same reason why some games no matter how you drop the price don't get sales from the lack of interest\demand.
 
Oct 29, 2017
1,830
If Switch is #1 in the US, chances are fairly good that it's #1 worldwide since we know that the Switch outsold the PS4 by a nice margin in Japan and the Switch did good in Europe thanks to France, although PS4 took that region overall.
All depends on how much Nsw would win the US with. EU and row should go to PS4 comfortably.

We will know soon enough though =)
 
Oct 25, 2017
13,128
That is not the case .
Something has to have demand for that to matter .
Even at $99 the GC had no demand .
PS4 bundles for $199 for both years had huge amount of demand that there were selling out before BF.
XB was under PS4 price ( by $10 ) in 2017 and they get out sold by 350k plus and Sony sold out early .
It's the same reason why some games no matter how you drop the price don't get sales from the lack of interest\demand.
good points, also true
 
Dec 10, 2017
3,653
All depends on how much Nsw would win the US with. EU and row should go to PS4 comfortably.

We will know soon enough though =)
Didn’t say otherwise. But Switch did extremely well in Europe since it was #1 in France by a decent margin and that’s 22% of the Europe market. It also did well in the UK, although Sony won that one by a nice amount.

And the Switch beat the PS4 by around 1.8 in Japan. So even if PS4 beat Switch by 2-2.5 million in Europe (numbers out of my butt btw), Switch would only have to sell 700k more than Sony in the US to match it and Switch wasn’t that far behind in the US to make up the rest. Especially since it’s rumored Switch did over 2 million.

Either way, they will be close.

And what’s row?
 
Last edited:
Oct 27, 2017
6,922
UK
Didn’t say otherwise. But Switch did extremely well in Europe since it was #1 in France by a decent margin and that’s 22% of the Europe market. It also did well in the UK, although Sony won that one by a nice amount.

And what’s row?
Source for that 22%? That's interesting because it would make UK + Germany + France = 70-75% of the European market, which seems a little high.
 
Dec 10, 2017
3,653
Source for that 22%? That's interesting because it would make UK + Germany + France = 70-75% of the European market, which seems a little high.
It was actually in the France thread.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/ni...ations-and-higher-than-in-2017-updated.92392/



Taking these numbers and converting them means UK had 6.4 B$ gaming market, compared to France with 5.3 B$.

Probably gonna get even closer come this year due to certain happenings, as well as xb/ps probably cooling of as they prepare for next gen.



Europes Gaming market is reportedly around 20 Billion dollars, but the only „official“ number i know of is 28 B dollars for Europe combined with africa and the middle east.

So if we say 20 B is europe, France would be about 25% of europes gaming market, with the UK at 32% and germany(4.7 B in 2018) at 23%.
 
Dec 10, 2017
3,653
Don’t those numbers include mobile and everything else too? You won’t have a good estimation when talking about console sales only if so.
Probably, but I don’t know what’s the mobile and console split is in Europe. Only going by money, the poster I quoted broke it down that UK had 33% of the game market, then France at 25%, and than Germany with 23%.
 
Dec 7, 2017
4,364
Spain
IMO Ex-Actarus and potentially Benji (more implication that statement)

So what are your guesstimates over the next 4/5 years for PS4? What side of the 130m fence are you on?
Do you really think that my 125/127 million units prediction for the PS4 lifetime is underestimating the potential legs of the console ? I would disagree.

The Wii sold 90 million units faster than the PS4 did if I’m not wrong. I’m pretty sure that back in the day in 2010 or 2011, everybody was expecting the Wii to sell much more than 101 million units lifetime... I remember we were talking about the Wii catching the PS2 ! You remember that ? It did not happen. Actually, the Wii just sold 15 million units in its last 3 major fiscal years ( FY11, FY12 and FY13 )...

I’m not saying in any way that PS4 will get such a drop of course. But I think we should not expect a small decline. The decline could be more dratic than we expect. So from 18 million to 12 million, it could happen.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,258
While we’re talking about the Wii, could Pachter’s Wii HD have been possible or were they just stuck with SD and nothing could change that apart from a full-on successor? The way the Wii’s last few years were wasted is pretty frustrating.
 
Dec 10, 2017
3,653
While we’re talking about the Wii, could Pachter’s Wii HD have been possible or were they just stuck with SD and nothing could change that apart from a full-on successor? The way the Wii’s last few years were wasted is pretty frustrating.
The Wii was more or less abandoned for the 3DS and then the Wii U. Nintendo has always done this with its consoles and handhelds. The DS was the least noticeable since it was still getting a ton of 3rd party Japanese support after Nintendo left it high and dry.
 
Oct 27, 2017
7,076
While we’re talking about the Wii, could Pachter’s Wii HD have been possible or were they just stuck with SD and nothing could change that apart from a full-on successor? The way the Wii’s last few years were wasted is pretty frustrating.
"Pachters Wii HD" - like he had a patent on the idea or was the only one thinking that Nintendo should release a HD system xD

And no Nintendo wasnt in any position to develop HD games for such a system and the same old PS2/Wii level games in HD wouldnt have resulted in more support or higher numbers.

The Wii U - as a system just called Wii 2, continuing the original philosophy of a affordable system (250 bucks), with 360 level hardware and a Wii Sports like bundle game could have performed very well in 2011 though. Especially with Skyward Sword HD as an extra.

This would have given them 2 years before PS4/One to establish themselves in the HD space....well, but then again they also had to save the 3DS around that time..so....yeah.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,258
The Wii was more or less abandoned for the 3DS and then the Wii U. Nintendo has always done this with its consoles and handhelds. The DS was the least noticeable since it was still getting a ton of 3rd party Japanese support after Nintendo left it high and dry.
Yeah, frankly, people said the advantages of having just one system meant more big games per year, which we haven’t really seen, but I hope it means more big games in the Switch’s later years to keep up the momentum. Nintendo systems collapse once the big studios move on to the next system, and it sucks.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,054
Yeah, frankly, people said the advantages of having just one system meant more big games per year, which we haven’t really seen, but I hope it means more big games in the Switch’s later years to keep up the momentum. Nintendo systems collapse once the big studios move on to the next system, and it sucks.
Yeah the ”unified” development has not produced nearly as much as I expected so far - especially in the smaller game space (dillons western, hana samurai, pushmo etc)

Does nintendo intentionally not create smaller games anymore with all indie-support? Afraid to take their market?