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NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month

Benji

US Sales Specialist
Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,070
I actually surprised Nintendo didn’t say anything since that tame “3 million for Smash in US” announcement. I would expect that game to be close to or beyond 4 million sold by now.
Yeah I'm hoping they release some PR on Smash and Hardware next week

But given how off their PR was for November maybe best not to cause confusion lol
 
Oct 28, 2017
817
Yeah I'm hoping they release some PR on Smash and Hardware next week

But given how off their PR was for November maybe best not to cause confusion lol
For some reason, Nintendo prefers to be extremely conservative with the given numbers. It’s like they enjoy people being extremely surprised when the real numbers are discovered.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,250
For some reason, Nintendo prefers to be extremely conservative with the given numbers. It’s like they enjoy people being extremely surprised when the real numbers are discovered.
I still remember their fucking PR for december 2009
Nintendo estimates that December sales in the United States [for the wii] will exceed 3 million units.
Nintendo estimates that the [Nintendo DS] set a new all-time calendar-year U.S. sales record for any console or hand-held system. [previous record was 9.9m]
Actual results:

Wii 3.81M
Nintendo DS 3.31M

NDS for the year ended at over 11.2 M
 

Benji

US Sales Specialist
Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,070
Did we ever figure out why they posted numbers like that?
Idk, they just like to be crazy conservative. Threw me for a loop for sure because before their PR I was confident they were way over 1 million

My guess is Nintendo just likes to play it safe. Easier to be conservative and then let the actual numbers surprise than to be overly optimistic.
But I'm really not sure how they came to that conclusion on their last PR, was really weird
 
Oct 29, 2017
1,639
WA, australia
Yeah, hardware is the one that would actually be challenging for Nintendo to miss, not that it would make a big difference if they only wind up selling 18-19 million FY anyway. But their 100M software goal was always getting Smash'd. :)

It is really crazy though, I haven't seen barren shelves for stuff even in the holidays in a few years. It's insane.
Dumb question, and slightly off topic, but their software goals include all software sales right? As in: digital only games, digital + physical sales of first party games, and digital + physical sales of third party games?

Edit: Benji at least we know for sure going forward that we/you shouldn’t doubt your insights in light of Nintendo PR. Even if it might sound weird on the surface to doubt Nintendo sales talk from Nintendo themselves lol
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,414
Any word on how things are looking early in January? I know there will be a steep drop, but will be interesting to see how each console starts the new year.
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,213
Dumb question, and slightly off topic, but their software goals include all software sales right? As in: digital only games, digital + physical sales of first party games, and digital + physical sales of third party games?
Physical retail and digital games that have retail releases. Digital only games aren’t included in their given totals.
 

Benji

US Sales Specialist
Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,070
BTW sales peeps

Love you all, thanks for always being on this ride with me! You guys don't know how much this community has meant to me through all the years, from the Era days, back on the GAF days

.....and the forums I frequented before

Love and respect for my sales friends so much
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,414
PS4 and Switch are steady and normal (Switch was the best selling for the first week).
Xbox is really bad for now.
Thanks! Been busy and hard to keep up.

Just saw Benji posted in the Dec prediction thread that Xbox is looking like a sharp drop early in January (or something along those lines).

Edit: thanks to you Benji and all the others that share information and provide valuable discussion and insight.
 
Oct 29, 2017
1,639
WA, australia
Physical retail and digital games that have retail releases. Digital only games aren’t included in their given totals.
Thankyou for the reply, appreciate it. With how low their forecast is compared to reality I was beginning to wonder if it didn’t include digital or tp or something lol.

BTW sales peeps

Love you all, thanks for always being on this ride with me! You guys don't know how much this community has meant to me through all the years, from the Era days, back on the GAF days

.....and the forums I frequented before

Love and respect for my sales friends so much
I know I’m relatively new and also not anyone notable. But I wanted to say Thankyou for not only keeping these threads - and therefore my downtime - interesting, but for also being a very genuine and honest person. Not once have you been rude, or anything other than helpful, even when so many can be rude to you. I’m so glad to have you around :)
 
Oct 28, 2017
28
nintendo is downplaying sales results in their PR primarily to justify cutting bonus payments for lower and middle management.
Where did you come up with this conspiracy theory? In the real world, companies have thoroughly audited financial results and bonuses are paid (or not paid) based on the performance against a defined budget (not accounting for bonuses that could be paid at management’s discretion). And companies typically pay bonuses based on overall measures such as GP, EBITDA, etc.
 
Dec 7, 2017
5,843
Spain
I still remember their fucking PR for december 2009

Actual results:

Wii 3.81M
Nintendo DS 3.31M

NDS for the year ended at over 11.2 M
Jesus Christ ! Those numbers were utterly RIDICULOUS !!!

I think the Switch could get those numbers next December with Animal Crossing, Pokemon RPG, the Switch revision and pricecut.
 

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,119
Where did you come up with this conspiracy theory? In the real world, companies have thoroughly audited financial results and bonuses are paid (or not paid) based on the performance against a defined budget (not accounting for bonuses that could be paid at management’s discretion). And companies typically pay bonuses based on overall measures such as GP, EBITDA, etc.
That's just what they want you to think.

Open your eyes.
 
Oct 26, 2017
2,377
Dumb question, and slightly off topic, but their software goals include all software sales right? As in: digital only games, digital + physical sales of first party games, and digital + physical sales of third party games?
Nintendo's software forecast doesn't include quantity bundled with hardware.
 

Mbolibombo

Banned
Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,321
Regarding this whole Nintendo counts all software including digital if they have a retail release.

They do include historic sales? For instance the retail Minecraft was released in june this year - do they count all digital prior to that one? And the most crazy one.. fortnite got a retail release would they include digital downloads of fortnite? or perhaps just the frozen bundle sales or whatever it was called heh..
 
Where did you come up with this conspiracy theory? In the real world, companies have thoroughly audited financial results and bonuses are paid (or not paid) based on the performance against a defined budget (not accounting for bonuses that could be paid at management’s discretion). And companies typically pay bonuses based on overall measures such as GP, EBITDA, etc.
well, of course you are right as long as we'd talk about upper management, the elite who actually brings forward the company and has superior access, capabilities and a longer attention span. for minor peasants in the organization sheet, a well-placed pr statement will generally do the job as they don't get the difference anyway and forget quickly what it was all about.
 
Oct 30, 2017
1,399
Piecing together the whole sales story is what these threads are all about. Sony provided the pieces that they can tout to make themselves look good, therefore we need the other pieces, etc.
PS4 is matching sales graph aligned to launch of PS2, the best selling home console ever. In fact it's slightly above. They are also in track of being the console with the best selling 6th FY ever.

They have a 2019 year packed with a ton of great games so PS4 will have great sales again, and if at some point they have a price drop even more.

It did 20 million once.
It won’t be close to 20 million anymore.
I see 12 million next year and 8 million after that.

But I agree, 120 should be fine. I expect 125 to 127
- 2019 : 104 million total
- 2020 : 112 million total
- 2021 : 118 million total
- 2022 to 2025 : 125-27 million LTD
No, PS4 is on track to reach 120 million at the end of 2020, around PS5 release. And it will keep selling "well" during 3-4 years more if PS5 is BC with PS4 games, as it seems that it's going to be the case.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,222
Spain
Does anybody have any educated guess to explain why Nintendo don't include digital only games sales in their software sales?. I don't understand either why they don't share digital sales data with NPD and other similar trackers all around the world. Even if their digital ratio is lower than Sony's and Microsoft's, the bigger sales number the better PR, right?.
 
Oct 25, 2017
15,553
Does anybody have any educated guess to explain why Nintendo don't include digital only games sales in their software sales?. I don't understand either why they don't share digital sales data with NPD and other similar trackers all around the world. Even if their digital ratio is lower than Sony's and Microsoft's, the bigger sales number the better PR, right?.
This is something I've been asking for a long time, and I still have no idea. Maybe they don't want to inflate their unit sales numbers while their overall sales revenue per unit number will drop (average price of digital only software is way lower than physical)? That's my best guess at the moment.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,222
Spain
This is something I've been asking for a long time, and I still have no idea. Maybe they don't want to inflate their unit sales numbers while their overall sales revenue per unit number will drop (average price of digital only software is way lower than physical)? That's my best guess at the moment.
Does anybody care about that?. I mean, I have never seen that stat discussed regarding PS4 or XB1 numbers. Also, software revenue includes DLC, MT's, loot boxes and so on, right?. It would not be as easy as just dividing sales revenue by units sold to obtain an useful average.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,854
I think the NPD Top 10 software for December will include: Super Smash Bros. Ultimate, Mario Kart 8 DX, Super Mario Party, Pokemon: Let's Go Pikachu, and possibly Super Mario Odyssey and/or Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild. Eevee will be right outside the Top 10. I think it will look something like this:

1. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
2. Red Dead Redemption 2
3. Call of Duty: Black Ops 4
4. Super Mario Party
5. Mario Kart 8 DX
6. Pokemon: Let's Go Pikachu
7. Battlefield V
8. NBA 2k19
9. Spyro Reignited Trilogy
10. Super Mario Odyssey
11. Fallout 76
12. Pokemon: Let's Go Eevee
13. Madden NFL 19
14. Just Cause 4
15. FIFA 19
16. Assassin's Creed: Odyssey
17. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
18. Marvel's Spider-Man
19. Grand Theft Auto V
20. Just Dance 2019
Did we ever figure out why they posted numbers like that?
Idk, they just like to be crazy conservative. Threw me for a loop for sure because before their PR I was confident they were way over 1 million

My guess is Nintendo just likes to play it safe. Easier to be conservative and then let the actual numbers surprise than to be overly optimistic.
But I'm really not sure how they came to that conclusion on their last PR, was really weird
I like my original theory that they simply added the Black Friday week sales to the end of October NPD and didn't consider the weeks before Black Friday in November.
 
Oct 25, 2017
15,553
Does anybody care about that?. I mean, I have never seen that stat discussed regarding PS4 or XB1 numbers. Also, software revenue includes DLC, MT's, loot boxes and so on, right?. It would not be as easy as just dividing sales revenue by units sold to obtain an useful average.
Like I said I have no idea why they do that or if that's the case, that's just my best guess at the moment. Maybe they think investors care about revenue per unit of software sold?
 
Oct 25, 2017
1,401
Regarding this whole Nintendo counts all software including digital if they have a retail release.

They do include historic sales? For instance the retail Minecraft was released in june this year - do they count all digital prior to that one? And the most crazy one.. fortnite got a retail release would they include digital downloads of fortnite? or perhaps just the frozen bundle sales or whatever it was called heh..
I have wondered this as well and haven’t seen an answer. More and more games are getting late physical releases as well.
 
Nov 18, 2017
1,162
Do you really think that my 125/127 million units prediction for the PS4 lifetime is underestimating the potential legs of the console ? I would disagree.

The Wii sold 90 million units faster than the PS4 did if I’m not wrong. I’m pretty sure that back in the day in 2010 or 2011, everybody was expecting the Wii to sell much more than 101 million units lifetime... I remember we were talking about the Wii catching the PS2 ! You remember that ? It did not happen. Actually, the Wii just sold 15 million units in its last 3 major fiscal years ( FY11, FY12 and FY13 )...

I’m not saying in any way that PS4 will get such a drop of course. But I think we should not expect a small decline. The decline could be more dratic than we expect. So from 18 million to 12 million, it could happen.
Using the Wii as an example is not a great move.

Last of Us will definitely push some consoles

But that's coming so late in the consoles life cycle its effect will be damped somewhat

And tbh it might not be until 2020
Could be interesting if LoU2 launched with PS5!
 
Dec 7, 2017
5,843
Spain
PS4 is matching sales graph aligned to launch of PS2, the best selling home console ever. In fact it's slightly above. They are also in track of being the console with the best selling 6th FY ever.

They have a 2019 year packed with a ton of great games so PS4 will have great sales again, and if at some point they have a price drop even more.


No, PS4 is on track to reach 120 million at the end of 2020, around PS5 release. And it will keep selling "well" during 3-4 years more if PS5 is BC with PS4 games, as it seems that it's going to be the case.
The Wii was way ahead of the PS2 at some point and it barely passed the 100 million mark. I think the PS2 huge sales were helped by a very slow start for the PS3. Again, not saying the PS4 is the Wii, just that a sharper decline than expected is possible

So you expect the PS4 to sell like 30 million until late 2020 ? I don’t see that possible. That would be barely a decline. But the decline will happen because games are going to be move on next gen soon. And consumers interest will decline as well because of current gen fatigue. We forget it, but this happened with the 360 and PS3, they had a pretty brutal decline with the next gen.

We ALL agree that next gen will happen in 2020 ( yes I’m leaving the team 2019 officially now ). But maybe it could be Spring 2020 and not Holiday 2020. The incredible launch of the Switch could inspire Sony or Microsoft ( or even both ).
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,550
Switch was best selling platform week 1

But I'm going to be much more vague about all this in the coming months as a heads up. Holidays was fun to get everything exciting but no need to give everything early in the slow times.

Make the prediction threads wild again
No surprise there. Switch already sold the most last January and Nintendo have Smash momentum this year. It should be an easy win for Switch in January.
 
Oct 26, 2017
9,596
The Wii was way ahead of the PS2 at some point and it barely passed the 100 million mark. I think the PS2 huge sales were helped by a very slow start for the PS3. Again, not saying the PS4 is the Wii, just that a sharper decline than expected is possible

So you expect the PS4 to sell like 30 million until late 2020 ? I don’t see that possible. That would be barely a decline. But the decline will happen because games are going to be move on next gen soon. And consumers interest will decline as well because of current gen fatigue. We forget it, but this happened with the 360 and PS3, they had a pretty brutal decline with the next gen.

We ALL agree that next gen will happen in 2020 ( yes I’m leaving the team 2019 officially now ). But maybe it could be Spring 2020 and not Holiday 2020. The incredible launch of the Switch could inspire Sony or Microsoft ( or even both ).
PS1/PS2 were really products of a different era, when consoles could survive as $99 budget options post successor and still move millions for several years. I think PS2 hardware was also helped by PS3 progressively cutting off backwards compatibility.

We really haven't seen anything like that since PS2 either. The only platform to accomplish something at all similar is probably 3DS and it's set to finally die off this year.
 
Nov 21, 2018
1,195
I think Smash Ultimate fist month sales will outsell Spiderman lifetime sales and chart above in the yearly top 20.
Of course this depends on the digital split for Ultimate, as those sales will not be represented in the NPD chart.
The lower the digital split, the higher the chance for this to happen.

Should be close.
 
Oct 30, 2017
1,399
The Wii was way ahead of the PS2 at some point and it barely passed the 100 million mark. I think the PS2 huge sales were helped by a very slow start for the PS3. Again, not saying the PS4 is the Wii, just that a sharper decline than expected is possible

So you expect the PS4 to sell like 30 million until late 2020 ? I don’t see that possible. That would be barely a decline. But the decline will happen because games are going to be move on next gen soon. And consumers interest will decline as well because of current gen fatigue. We forget it, but this happened with the 360 and PS3, they had a pretty brutal decline with the next gen.

We ALL agree that next gen will happen in 2020 ( yes I’m leaving the team 2019 officially now ). But maybe it could be Spring 2020 and not Holiday 2020. The incredible launch of the Switch could inspire Sony or Microsoft ( or even both ).
PS4 is on track of beating another record this March: to be the best selling home console during its 6th FY.

As you can see in this graph, Wii had an insane sales spike during its 2nd and 3rd year but its sales curve declined way faster than usual than the PS consoles:


This other monthly based chart isn't mine (from other resetera member) but I assume it's true: blue line is PS4, and shows a sales curve even closer to PS2 than the very similar trend we see when comparing them in a FY basis.



This one is from Daniel Ahmad:


Now consider that we have a shit ton of announced games (both 1st and 3rd party) for PS4 during 2019 and 2020 that are clearly going to be big sellers (let's say more than 2-3 million) and/or get a metacritic higher than 80. In addition to a good amount of both announced and not announced indie games that will complete a great catalog with a lot of great games for a lot of different tastes during these years.

It's very likely that during 2019 or 2020 PS4 will get the permanent price cut to the magic $199 that opens the door to the family and emerging countries market.

And since as it seems PS5 is announced as BC with PS4 games, devs (mostly indie and non high end AAA games in addition to yearly big sellers like FIFA or Just Dance) will continue supporting PS4 for longer after PS5 launch to continue milking this >100 million units userbase, so PS4 sales decrease will be slower specially before PS5 launch that I expect is going to be November 2020 or later.

Think also that PS4 is selling better than Sony expected so they won't rush to discontinue it and will support it as long as they can after PS5 launch even if with no new 1st party games beacuse (I bet unlike PS5 at launch) each PS4 is sold at profit and Sony as corporation now has PS as their main money source and they need this money to help other divisions.

I see PS4 selling 16M in 2019 and 13M in 2020 (or more), which added to the current 91.6M would be 120.6M at the end of 2020. Think also that Switch also doesn't compete too directly because many of their new users already have a PS4, or may be from the handheld market, or Nintendo fans going back to consoles. At least until now the great success of Switch didn't seem to negatively affect PS4 sales so I assume same will happen in the future.
 
Last edited:
Oct 29, 2017
1,639
WA, australia
Nintendo's software forecast doesn't include quantity bundled with hardware.
Thankyou! :)
PS4 is on track of beating another record this March: to be the best selling home console during its 6th FY.

As you can see in this graph, Wii had an insane sales spike during its 2nd and 3rd year but its sales curve declined way faster than usual than the PS consoles:


This other monthly based chart isn't mine (from other resetera member) but I assume it's true: blue line is PS4, and shows a sales curve even closer to PS2 than the very similar trend we see when comparing them in a FY basis.



This one is from Daniel Ahmad:


Now consider that we have a shit ton of announced games (both 1st and 3rd party) for PS4 during 2019 and 2020 that are clearly going to be big sellers (let's say more than 2-3 million) and/or get a metacritic higher than 80. In addition to a good amount of both announced and not announced indie games that will complete a great catalog with a lot of great games for a lot of different tastes during these years.

It's very likely that during 2019 or 2020 PS4 will get the permanent price cut to the magic $199 that opens the door to the family and emerging countries market.

And since as it seems PS5 is announced as BC with PS4 games, devs (mostly indie and non high end AAA games in addition to yearly big sellers like FIFA or Just Dance) will continue supporting PS4 for longer after PS5 launch to continue milking this >100 million units userbase, so PS4 sales decrease will be slower specially before PS5 launch that I expect is going to be November 2020 or later.

Think also that PS4 is selling better than Sony expected so they won't rush to discontinue it and will support it as long as they can after PS5 launch even if with no new 1st party games beacuse (I bet unlike PS5 at launch) each PS4 is sold at profit and Sony as corporation now has PS as their main money source and they need this money to help other divisions.

I see PS4 selling 16M in 2019 and 13M in 2020 (or more), which added to the current 91.6M would be 120.6M at the end of 2020. Think also that Switch also doesn't compete too directly because many of their new users already have a PS4, or may be from the handheld market, or Nintendo fans going back to consoles. At least until now the great success of Switch didn't seem to negatively affect PS4 sales so I assume same will happen in the future.
Your graph is actually really interesting and one of the most comprehensive graphs I’ve seen, Thankyou. Looking forward to seeing how switch and ps4’s sales curves look at the end of their time.

Also you say you expect it to be the best selling console in its 6th FY - do you mean against the competition (switch, XB1)? Because I’d be surprised if it was higher than switch this fy.
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,060
Thankyou! :)

Your graph is actually really interesting and one of the most comprehensive graphs I’ve seen, Thankyou. Looking forward to seeing how switch and ps4’s sales curves look at the end of their time.

Also you say you expect it to be the best selling console in its 6th FY - do you mean against the competition (switch, XB1)? Because I’d be surprised if it was higher than switch this fy.
Against historical competition. Highest 6th FY shipment is DS with 27.11 million and second (and best home console) is PS2 with 16.17 million.
 
Oct 29, 2017
1,639
WA, australia
switch is not in its 6th year yet.
Against historical competition. Highest 6th FY shipment is DS with 27.11 million and second (and best home console) is PS2 with 16.17 million.
Yeah that was my other option but I forgot that ds was excluded from the comparison and was like ‘theres no way ps4 ships >27m.’

It should do it pretty easily unless it just falls short of ps2.