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fiendcode

Member
Oct 26, 2017
24,909
The Wii was way ahead of the PS2 at some point and it barely passed the 100 million mark. I think the PS2 huge sales were helped by a very slow start for the PS3. Again, not saying the PS4 is the Wii, just that a sharper decline than expected is possible

So you expect the PS4 to sell like 30 million until late 2020 ? I don't see that possible. That would be barely a decline. But the decline will happen because games are going to be move on next gen soon. And consumers interest will decline as well because of current gen fatigue. We forget it, but this happened with the 360 and PS3, they had a pretty brutal decline with the next gen.

We ALL agree that next gen will happen in 2020 ( yes I'm leaving the team 2019 officially now ). But maybe it could be Spring 2020 and not Holiday 2020. The incredible launch of the Switch could inspire Sony or Microsoft ( or even both ).
PS1/PS2 were really products of a different era, when consoles could survive as $99 budget options post successor and still move millions for several years. I think PS2 hardware was also helped by PS3 progressively cutting off backwards compatibility.

We really haven't seen anything like that since PS2 either. The only platform to accomplish something at all similar is probably 3DS and it's set to finally die off this year.
 

Deleted member 49804

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 21, 2018
1,868
I think Smash Ultimate fist month sales will outsell Spiderman lifetime sales and chart above in the yearly top 20.
Of course this depends on the digital split for Ultimate, as those sales will not be represented in the NPD chart.
The lower the digital split, the higher the chance for this to happen.

Should be close.
 

Yurinka

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
1,457
The Wii was way ahead of the PS2 at some point and it barely passed the 100 million mark. I think the PS2 huge sales were helped by a very slow start for the PS3. Again, not saying the PS4 is the Wii, just that a sharper decline than expected is possible

So you expect the PS4 to sell like 30 million until late 2020 ? I don't see that possible. That would be barely a decline. But the decline will happen because games are going to be move on next gen soon. And consumers interest will decline as well because of current gen fatigue. We forget it, but this happened with the 360 and PS3, they had a pretty brutal decline with the next gen.

We ALL agree that next gen will happen in 2020 ( yes I'm leaving the team 2019 officially now ). But maybe it could be Spring 2020 and not Holiday 2020. The incredible launch of the Switch could inspire Sony or Microsoft ( or even both ).
PS4 is on track of beating another record this March: to be the best selling home console during its 6th FY.

As you can see in this graph, Wii had an insane sales spike during its 2nd and 3rd year but its sales curve declined way faster than usual than the PS consoles:
HVxeztbY.png


This other monthly based chart isn't mine (from other resetera member) but I assume it's true: blue line is PS4, and shows a sales curve even closer to PS2 than the very similar trend we see when comparing them in a FY basis.

unknown.png


This one is from Daniel Ahmad:
DwWd3_6XQAEqcw0.png:large


Now consider that we have a shit ton of announced games (both 1st and 3rd party) for PS4 during 2019 and 2020 that are clearly going to be big sellers (let's say more than 2-3 million) and/or get a metacritic higher than 80. In addition to a good amount of both announced and not announced indie games that will complete a great catalog with a lot of great games for a lot of different tastes during these years.

It's very likely that during 2019 or 2020 PS4 will get the permanent price cut to the magic $199 that opens the door to the family and emerging countries market.

And since as it seems PS5 is announced as BC with PS4 games, devs (mostly indie and non high end AAA games in addition to yearly big sellers like FIFA or Just Dance) will continue supporting PS4 for longer after PS5 launch to continue milking this >100 million units userbase, so PS4 sales decrease will be slower specially before PS5 launch that I expect is going to be November 2020 or later.

Think also that PS4 is selling better than Sony expected so they won't rush to discontinue it and will support it as long as they can after PS5 launch even if with no new 1st party games beacuse (I bet unlike PS5 at launch) each PS4 is sold at profit and Sony as corporation now has PS as their main money source and they need this money to help other divisions.

I see PS4 selling 16M in 2019 and 13M in 2020 (or more), which added to the current 91.6M would be 120.6M at the end of 2020. Think also that Switch also doesn't compete too directly because many of their new users already have a PS4, or may be from the handheld market, or Nintendo fans going back to consoles. At least until now the great success of Switch didn't seem to negatively affect PS4 sales so I assume same will happen in the future.
 
Last edited:

Limabean01

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,664
WA, australia
Nintendo's software forecast doesn't include quantity bundled with hardware.
Thankyou! :)
PS4 is on track of beating another record this March: to be the best selling home console during its 6th FY.

As you can see in this graph, Wii had an insane sales spike during its 2nd and 3rd year but its sales curve declined way faster than usual than the PS consoles:
HVxeztbY.png


This other monthly based chart isn't mine (from other resetera member) but I assume it's true: blue line is PS4, and shows a sales curve even closer to PS2 than the very similar trend we see when comparing them in a FY basis.

unknown.png


This one is from Daniel Ahmad:
DwWd3_6XQAEqcw0.png:large


Now consider that we have a shit ton of announced games (both 1st and 3rd party) for PS4 during 2019 and 2020 that are clearly going to be big sellers (let's say more than 2-3 million) and/or get a metacritic higher than 80. In addition to a good amount of both announced and not announced indie games that will complete a great catalog with a lot of great games for a lot of different tastes during these years.

It's very likely that during 2019 or 2020 PS4 will get the permanent price cut to the magic $199 that opens the door to the family and emerging countries market.

And since as it seems PS5 is announced as BC with PS4 games, devs (mostly indie and non high end AAA games in addition to yearly big sellers like FIFA or Just Dance) will continue supporting PS4 for longer after PS5 launch to continue milking this >100 million units userbase, so PS4 sales decrease will be slower specially before PS5 launch that I expect is going to be November 2020 or later.

Think also that PS4 is selling better than Sony expected so they won't rush to discontinue it and will support it as long as they can after PS5 launch even if with no new 1st party games beacuse (I bet unlike PS5 at launch) each PS4 is sold at profit and Sony as corporation now has PS as their main money source and they need this money to help other divisions.

I see PS4 selling 16M in 2019 and 13M in 2020 (or more), which added to the current 91.6M would be 120.6M at the end of 2020. Think also that Switch also doesn't compete too directly because many of their new users already have a PS4, or may be from the handheld market, or Nintendo fans going back to consoles. At least until now the great success of Switch didn't seem to negatively affect PS4 sales so I assume same will happen in the future.
Your graph is actually really interesting and one of the most comprehensive graphs I've seen, Thankyou. Looking forward to seeing how switch and ps4's sales curves look at the end of their time.

Also you say you expect it to be the best selling console in its 6th FY - do you mean against the competition (switch, XB1)? Because I'd be surprised if it was higher than switch this fy.
 

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,354
Thankyou! :)

Your graph is actually really interesting and one of the most comprehensive graphs I've seen, Thankyou. Looking forward to seeing how switch and ps4's sales curves look at the end of their time.

Also you say you expect it to be the best selling console in its 6th FY - do you mean against the competition (switch, XB1)? Because I'd be surprised if it was higher than switch this fy.

Against historical competition. Highest 6th FY shipment is DS with 27.11 million and second (and best home console) is PS2 with 16.17 million.
 

Limabean01

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,664
WA, australia