It hasn't had anything like previous generations price drops...It's currently tracking (WW) around the same as PS2 - at this point on the PS2 life it was around half the launch price.
This generation has been weird IMO.
-
Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
- Thread starter ZhugeEX
- Start date
It hasn't had anything like previous generations price drops...It's currently tracking (WW) around the same as PS2 - at this point on the PS2 life it was around half the launch price.
This generation has been weird IMO.
It's by no means negative. The PS4 will end up the 3rd or 4th best selling system of all time ( behind or in front of the Gameboy ). How on earth can this be negative...
In the end all 3 consoles 'won' this year in US.
It was a positive year for everybody.
Asymmetric multiplayer was hardly a fad.
It never took off.
I don't get that either. If Sony's December US sales were in conjunction with a sale or bundle and the print was 700k, then THAT would be an issue. Prioritizing other regions (Europe and Japan had decent December sales) after a successful US November, you would expect December to be tepid.
so late in PS4 life TLO2 is not as big system seller as Spider-man, i don't think there would be any game that sells more PS4 than Spider-man at this point, agree with the rest of your comment.
PS4 has had a very strong fifth year mostly because: early in the year in japan it got the biggest third party you can get and in the world in general Fortnite popularity boost consoles sales for the early months, God of War was a huge surprise and helped a bit but i don't know if it had that much of an impact but made their half more sustained, and when Fortnite started to plateau Spider-man came to the rescue, which is the exclusive game with widest appeal that has launched in the console so it sell A LOT of systems. RDR2 existing also helped.
Next year will be more rough than this one, there seems to be no new Fortnite in the horizon, Days Gone is not GoW nor close to it, there is no big Rockstar game and not even TLOU2 has a wider appeal than Spider-man plus a lot of the target audience is already on the platform. KH3 is the only title right now that i see having a huge system selling potential and 1. is multiplatform and 2. by huge i mean compared to the 2019 lineup, i don't think it will get close to the big juggernauts of 2018. If you add to all that it will be its sixth year an important decline is to be expected.
Anyways the console this generation has done fantastic, it will probably end between 110-120m sold and that is if Sony hasn't any secrets plans to keep it afloat for longer (aka, PS4 Pro being able to run PS5 games) which will put the PS4 as the second highest selling home console ever. Analyst and people in this forum are just warning that at some point the party starts to end and people should be prepared for it.
Yes, the first quarter of the year will be bigger in 2019 than in 2018. But last year, Sony had God of War in April, Spider-Man in September and Red Dead Redemption II in October.
In 2019, PlayStation 4 will have more games, more exclusives and probably more AAA. But nothing similar to God of War, Spider-Man or Red Dead Redemption II (again, except maybe The Last of Us Part II). Red Dead Redemption II is a bigger system seller than Splinter Cell, Borderlands 3 and Jedi: Fallen Order combined.
I don't know. Maybe? The Last of Us is now the biggest IP owned by Sony. I think it will outsell Spider-Man. But I don't know if it will be as big system seller as Spider-Man.
It'll pass 120m with no problem...it's already at 90m and doing nearly 20m a year at just 25% less than the original RRP
It did 20 million once.
It won't be close to 20 million anymore.
I see 12 million next year and 8 million after that.
But I agree, 120 should be fine. I expect 125 to 127
- 2019 : 104 million total
- 2020 : 112 million total
- 2021 : 118 million total
- 2022 to 2025 : 125-27 million LTD
Gotcha. Wonder how much BO4 sold then.
Hopefully it's past or close to the 10m mark.
That's why I said nearly 20m, it's averaged 18m p/y - and as I said hasn't been price dropped much...I think it has longer legs than you're predicting due to the price drop options...I'm certainly expecting it to get past 130m, it's currently tracking ahead of PS2 - even if it slows much quicker I project something like this;
Last edited:
135 million ? No way.That's why I said nearly 20m, it's averaged 18m p/y - and as I said hasn't been price dropped much...I think it has longer legs than you're predicting due to the price drop options...I'm certainly expecting it to get past 130m, it's currently tracking ahead of PS2 - even if it slows much quicker I project something like this;
That means the PS4 would still sell 45M more units ? I don't see that happening.
Even if it's ahead of the PS2, I expect a drastic decline as it's been the case for pretty much all consoles ( expect the PS2 ).
Last edited:
Yes.
During decline most of the sales happens during pricecuts and holidays. Outside of that, it's going to be a very important decline... I think the KEY numbers will be for January, February and March. Let see how the PS4 does.
Well and PS1. PS1 shipped over 30 million units after launch of PS2.
I think PS4 does well the first 3-4 months of this year. Lots of quality software is launching. In fact, I expect it to outsell Switch at least twice in this period. I think late spring and summer is when we'll really start to notice a decline
(unless TLoU 2 launches, somehow)
So, when do you think Sony drops PS4's price to $99?
I don't think next gen condoles will stop ps4. Next gen is going to be more of a mid gen upgrade this time and with streaming services in the mix I can see PS4 selling for a long while and also get decent support.
They sold the PSone for sub 100 bucks at that point - i doubt the PS4 will be anywhere close to that cheap since Sony want people to upgrade to the Next-Gen as fast as possible.
The PS4 will also have much more competition in the entry-mainstream market with mobile and Switch - consoles selling this well longer after the new system is out probably wont happen anymore on this scale.
But yeah if Sony wants the PS4 to go on longer ans is ready to make it attractive even compared to the PS5 - yeah it could have very long legs.
That still seems like a big drop, I'm expecting them to do more promotions this year than last, don't people also expect a super slim model still? That should surly give it more life.
Anyone has the sales of the 5th and 6th year of PlayStation consoles to see how big the drop was?
I think it'll be closer to my 135m than your 127m :)
Don't forget they haven't hit $200 for anything other than a small promotion, and also they have big hitters still to come. Another factor people are not considering is that if PS5 is BC then that fact might help PS4 have longer legs as people might buy into the PlayStation ecosystem with a view to getting PS5 down the line and taking their library with them.
I just don't see the PS4 only selling ~35m between now and end of life.
I mean it won't get to $99 (adjusted to inflation $99 in 2001 is $140 today so it's harder and harder to hit sub $100) but if they want to keep cheap entry level device (so selling it with low hardware margins) even after launch of PS5 to get people in the ecosystem I could see PS4 having pretty long life. Especially in developing markets where price is bigger factor and where Sony has been traditionally strong.
Granted, and I bow to your vastly superior knowledge, but a price drop would likely keep PS4 going this year and then we have some pretty big titles coming
Yeah it depends on what they will be able to offer with the PS5 - if they have already a entry model/cheaper PS5 like MS will likely offer then we wont see them pushing the PS4 too strong post PS5 release. Add in the fact that the new system will likely have full BC i think a faster transition than usual is likely.
If Sony only offers a traditional PS5 console at 400 bucks keeping the PS4 (+VR) as an attractive entry price model to their eco system will be more important...true.
The decline won't be that drastic, especially if TLoU2 releases or if Dreams and Days Gone are hits. Or if sony hits that magic $199
The PS4 won't be in front of the Switch anymore, expect pricecut. There are many good titles incoming, but no killer ap like God of War, Spideman or Read Dead 2.
The Switch will sell 25 million next year. The PS4 days as the Number 1 console ended up in December 2018. But what a ride it was.
I think Switch has most months of 2019 in the bag but not all of them.
Its still going very strong. If they can manage a 14-15m year in 2019 like I'm expecting that's still massive this late in the cycle
It's just the decline is definitely setting in and 2018 is going to be a very difficult comp this year. People still dont get how much Fortnite moved hardware. It was probably the biggest hardware mover of the entire gen
I Think its a fact...
You probably just didn't read the news a few weeks ago about how Switch clearly sold more in 2018 than the PS4.
Dreams and Days Gone ?
You really think those games would move units ? I don't think so.
TLOU 2 will be a holiday title and no problem to sell the PS4 during the holiday season.
I Read, but the graph was just t confirm that 2018 was PS4 second best year, so that was not a satire but a fact.
It wont need to get that low as people also have way more buying power than back in late PS1 days ($99 in 2001 in US is same as $140 today) . Personally lowest I can see is $149 somewhere around 2021 if flash memory has gotten cheap enough and they can replace traditional HDD with something like 256Gb (or 512Gb) of flash memory (I also think they will launch Super Slim PS4 (7nm) this year). This is of course only if they are willing to use PS1/PS2 pricing strategy with PS4 after PS5 launch.
I would imagine that also digital playing bigger role in distribution of games will help to keep cheaply priced PS4 more desirable for longer. In the past new gen launching meant that older consoles had less and less shelf space for games and if you bought old console years after launch of successor you kinda had to buy games used and that made barrier higher for anyone to buy older consoles. Now you can probably buy every single PS4 game even 5 years after launch of PS5 digitally (and probably very cheaply). But yeah it really depends what Sony does with PS4 (and PS5 like you said). Do they sell it cheap like with PS1 and PS2 and keep it alive as entry level device for years or will they kill it after the new gen launch like with PS3.
Last edited:
What does that have to do with PS4 having its second best year though?
TLoUII will carry PS4 next year but the drop is inevitable. Still I believe PS4 will sell 130m LT
Days Gone may impact HW sales if it's good. Don't believe it will but who knows
Days Gone may impact HW sales if it's good. Don't believe it will but who knows
It's probably because as late as post BF when Benji said PS4 sold most, but all 3 were close, it wasn't certain Nintendo would sell the most in 2018 with a massive December so there was a lot of pre gloating. I mean we still don't know the final tally.
It will probably have a similar effect as God of War did. Meaning it will move a lot of hardware.
I think you're all slightly confused. That poster was talking about Sony havung its 2nd best calender year for the PS4 worldwide. They were not talking about NPD numbers or comparing to the Switch.
The Switch is certainly going to be the best selling system of the year.
GoW, serious as it is, is about killing monsters in an epic, colorful, mythical adventure.
TLOU2 is a gritty, ultra violent (and realistic) stealth zombie shooter that highlights the worst of humanity in the bleakest setting imaginable.
Not comparable in wide appeal imo.
Benji, do you think Fornite had an impact on potential higher PS4 sales in 2018 because it was also released on the Switch ?
Both are ultra-violent M-rated games. They're aiming for the same demographic. The Last of Us is one of the most beloved games in recent memory. And its sequel is going to move hardware.
We have this type of discussion with almost every major upcoming release ("everyone who wants this game already owns x console") and it's never true.
It certain will, but not at the same pace as Spiderman or GoW. That's my prediction.
Days gone, if it reviews well and Sony markets it right....absolutely. I could see it doing GOW number tbh. Era if way off the mark for that game.
Dreams is more a mystery. I don't really believe it will but I could see it catching on and becoming a mega success.
You estimated 33% decline YOY is too much. I'm guessing around 17% decline and around 15M