NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month

[Skittzo]

If the PS4 has an actual permanent price drop next year then I can see it having a very soft drop from this year. Which would be crazy impressive.

But I think at its current price the drop will be a fair bit more substantial. It all depends on whether or not they want to lower the price.

 

[Deleted member 3017]

It certain will, but not at the same pace as Spiderman or GoW. That's my prediction.

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The only reason it's probably not going to move numbers as high as GoW is due to the stage of the PS4's lifecycle the game is launching in. When you take that into account though, it will have a similar impact.

 

[KillerMan91]

If the PS4 has an actual permanent price drop next year then I can see it having a very soft drop from this year. Which would be crazy impressive.

But I think at its current price the drop will be a fair bit more substantial. It all depends on whether or not they want to lower the price.

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I am almost willing to bet my balls that there will be new Super Slim this year with 7nm node (and with that price drop). Even PS3 got its third revision.

 

[SuperFakerBros]

I am almost willing to bet my balls that there will be new Super Slim this year with 7nm node (and with that price drop). Even PS3 got its third revision.

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I wonder though. Would another price drop and revision really help out that much at this late in its life? I just kind of get the feeling that it'll help out a bit initially before the PS5 / XB2 come out and the PS4 / XB1's sales fall off hard, like the PS3 / 360

 

[Deleted member 2785]

Quick hypothetical question about PS4:

If you are Sony what would you prefer for 2019, about 12 millions sales for the PS4 priced at 300$ or price cut the console to 200$ and keep it at 18-20 million yearly?

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Your price sensitivity estimates are far too aggressive.

 

[Kazuma Kiryu]

What does that have to do with PS4 having its second best year though?

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I Read, but the graph was just t confirm that 2018 was PS4 second best year, so that was not a satire but a fact.

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Relax, it was a joke about how Wescoast76 got banned a week or so ago for peddling the "Switch sold more in 2018 than PS4" talk in numerous threads.

 

[Inuhanyou]

The only reason it's probably not going to move numbers as high as GoW is due to the stage of the PS4's lifecycle the game is launching in. When you take that into account though, it will have a similar impact.

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to be fair, didnt stop the OG TLOU

 

[Skittzo]

I am almost willing to bet my balls that there will be new Super Slim this year with 7nm node (and with that price drop). Even PS3 got its third revision.

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I feel like those kinds of bets are frowned upon here.

But yeah, that seems likely. They'll want a cheaper product that can sell fairly well throughout the first few years of the PS5's life.

 

[KillerMan91]

I wonder though. Would another price drop and revision really help out that much at this late in its life? I just kind of get the feeling that it'll help out a bit initially before the PS5 / XB2 come out and the PS4 / XB1's sales fall off hard, like the PS3 / 360

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Well as we saw again during this November that especially PS4 had plenty of demand with cheap price I would say yes if they do it this year. Of course more time goes on smaller the impact will be. And these revisions themselves are not supposed to really move hardware. It's the lower price that they allow as it's cheaper to manufacture them.

I feel like those kinds of bets are frowned upon here.

But yeah, that seems likely. They'll want a cheaper product that can sell fairly well throughout the first few years of the PS5's life.

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Oh. Well then I just say that I will predict that there is new cheaper model launching this year lol.

 

[Saint-14]

TLoU sold +17 million and still charting to this day btw, people shouldn't underestimate its selling power, if it's coming this year then it's launch month should cause comparable bump to hardware as GoW and Spider-Man.

 

[Deleted member 35598]

Days gone, if it reviews well and Sony markets it right....absolutely. I could see it doing GOW number tbh. Era if way off the mark for that game.

Dreams is more a mystery. I don't really believe it will but I could see it catching on and becoming a mega success.

You estimated 33% decline YOY is too much. I'm guessing around 17% decline and around 15M

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Honestly forget God of War numbers. Not only Days Gone is a new IP, but Sony Bend is not the best Sony studio out there. I really like them, but they're not Santa Monica, Naughty Dog or Guerilla...

So I don't expect a high Metacritic score. Besides the game did not really received positive vibe from previews. The game is not a looker and it is suffering from comparison - not fair imo - to the Last of Us.

 

[unicornKnight]

Your price sensitivity estimates are far too aggressive.

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Yup, people often overestimate the price as a factor. Also price can affect sales more in holidays or black Friday, people make more impulse decisions and want to take advantage of a limited time offer.
Perma drop doesn't have the same results.

 

[SuperFakerBros]

Well as we saw again during this November that especially PS4 had plenty of demand with cheap price I would say yes if they do it this year. Of course more time goes on smaller the impact will be. And these revisions themselves are not supposed to really move hardware. It's the lower price that they allow as it's cheaper to manufacture them.

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I'd argue that would've been the case for any system with a good deal bundled with a high profile title but I'll concede it does also show that, yeah, a cheaper price will help out a fair amount. I just figured it wouldn't help out too much as they enter the endgame with the PS4 and the PS5 / XB2 loom in the distance

 

[Deleted member 12833]

Honestly forget God of War numbers. Not only Days Gone is a new IP, but Sony Bend is not the best Sony studio out there. I really like them, but they're not Santa Monica, Naughty Dog or Guerilla...

So I don't expect a high Metacritic score. Besides the game did not really received positive vibe from previews. The game is not a looker and it is suffering from comparison - not fair imo - to the Last of Us.

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Latest impressions have been good. Not sure where you are getting that. It was even a hit at TGS

 

[SuperFakerBros]

TLoU sold +17 million and still charting to this day btw, people shouldn't underestimate its selling power, if it's coming this year then it's launch month should cause comparable bump to hardware as GoW and Spider-Man.

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Is that on the PS4 or the PS3 alone or is that after combining their total, which is what I'm expecting?

 

[Saint-14]

Is that on the PS4 or the PS3 alone or is that after combining their total, which is what I'm expecting?

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Both versions, they are the same game.

 

[sheepysheep]

Benji Would love to hear about any early indications on how New Super Marios Bros U Deluxe is doing as they come in over the weekend and if it's acutally driving Switch sales - or if people are all bought out from the massive December.

 

[SuperFakerBros]

Both versions, they are the same game.

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I figured as much because I don't see TLoU 2 selling anywhere near 17+ million nor is that 17+ million figure really all that representative of the number of people who bought the game for the first time. It'd be like combining the Mario Kart 8 totals from the Wii U and the Switch

 

[Deleted member 35598]

Latest impressions have been good. Not sure where you are getting that. It was even a hit at TGS

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I'm not saying Days Gone is bad or anything. I simply don't see any enthusiasm or hype for that game. The game was a hit at TGS ? How ? Rarely western games are hit at TGS...

Anyway, I'm not hating. But don't expect it to be the God of War of 2019 for Sony. It won't be. Nobody has those expectations.

 

[JusDoIt]

nor is that 17+ million figure really all that representative of the number of people who bought the game for the first time. It'd be like combining the Mario Kart 8 totals from the Wii U and the Switch

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Sales are sales, tho. This is done with multiplatform games all the time. I've bought the same game on PS4 and Switch a few times. Those sales count. The same rules apply when the multiple platforms cross generations.

 

[Pokémon]

Since I was not around here during the PS3 era, did The Last of Us have a huge impact on hardware?

 

[Saint-14]

I figured as much because I don't see TLoU 2 selling anywhere near 17+ million nor is that 17+ million figure really all that representative of the number of people who bought the game for the first time. It'd be like combining the Mario Kart 8 totals from the Wii U and the Switch

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Oh it will definitely do +15 million, the game released at the end of PS3's life and the remaster launched a year after that, the situations aren't really comparable, it's up to Nintendo if they want to count it, you also shouldn't really be underselling Sony exclusives this gen and certainly not something as big as TLoU.

 

[Mbolibombo]

Honestly, I wouldnt want to say anything about the legs of PS4 after the release of PS5 until I know what the PS5 actually is :P

Bulk of the remaining sales should be for 2019-2020 at least. I cant think we're going to see PS2 like legs though.

 

[Jssom]

Your price sensitivity estimates are far too aggressive.

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LOL I know

But you get the idea,

My question is, at what point keeping the PS4 at 300$ is worth it?

 

[Deleted member 2785]

LOL I know

But you get the idea,

My question is, at what point keeping the PS4 at 300$ is worth it?

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It's an algebra problem and most of the variables in the equation are unknown.

 

[Gotdatmoney]

I dont think double dipping culture is as big as some people think it is tbh. Especially for single player games.

 

[m051293]

Spiderman is the kind of cross-public exclusive that sells consoles.

TLOU2 is the kind of exclusive that is gonna sell millions but appeals to hardcore gamers that most likely already have a PS4. It's not gonna be a comparable system seller.

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I know the bolded is a polarizing topic here, but assuming this effect is real (effect: "late-cycle software will push less hardware due to larger install-base"), I think the Pro models help mitigate against this.

Folks will upgrade from PS4 > PS4 Pro, which softens the effect of a large install base. Personal anecdote - I did exactly this for RDR2 (nabbed a bundle on launch).

If the Pro also drops in price, or gets a slim revision in the next few years, that's only going to help the sales-tail even further. At that point it'll come down to software release flow after the PS5 launch. If PS5 drops in Q4 2019, that's a >100M install base with a growing portion of that being the PS4 Pro. If its sometime in 2020, that's a ~110M base.

 

[Benji]

Your price sensitivity estimates are far too aggressive.

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Yep people need to just understand the drop is inevitable. Proce drops can soften it somewhat but it's happening this year regardless

 

[Saint-14]

I think people do accept that there will be a decline, just how much is the question.

 

[goonergaz]

I wonder though. Would another price drop and revision really help out that much at this late in its life? I just kind of get the feeling that it'll help out a bit initially before the PS5 / XB2 come out and the PS4 / XB1's sales fall off hard, like the PS3 / 360

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Absolutely, it's not hit sub $200 so there's plenty of people who haven't either jumped in or bought more units for the house (ie one for little johnnys bedroom).

People seem to really underestimate the legs of PS4.

 

[Pancracio17]

When are we due the December NPD update? About to happen any day now right?

 

[goonergaz]

Latest impressions have been good. Not sure where you are getting that. It was even a hit at TGS

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Yeah, I don't think it'll shift a load of units though...

I know the bolded is a polarizing topic here, but assuming this effect is real (effect: "late-cycle software will push less hardware due to larger install-base"), I think the Pro models help mitigate against this.

Folks will upgrade from PS4 > PS4 Pro, which softens the effect of a large install base. Personal anecdote - I did exactly this for RDR2 (nabbed a bundle on launch).

If the Pro also drops in price, or gets a slim revision in the next few years, that's only going to help the sales-tail even further. At that point it'll come down to software release flow after the PS5 launch. If PS5 drops in Q4 2019, that's a >100M install base with a growing portion of that being the PS4 Pro. If its sometime in 2020, that's a ~110M base.

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Another unknown is the Pro effect - this is the first time such a console exists and who knows how that's skewing figures.

 

[Skittzo]

When are we due the December NPD update? About to happen any day now right?

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The report is out to subscribers on January 17th as per the December prediction thread. Then there's usually public PR the week after, probably Tuesday the 22nd.

 

[Pancracio17]

The report is out to subscribers on January 17th as per the December prediction thread. Then there's usually public PR the week after, probably Tuesday the 22nd.

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Ahhh, thank you. End of the year sales data is always the most interesting.

 

[Deleted member 2785]

People seem to really underestimate the legs of PS4.

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Who is doing that. I'm not seeing any of that. Only thing I'm seeing is people being far too optimistic given cyclicality, slate and next gen announcements.

 

[Piston]

I explained this before, but Sony doesn't have much incentive in selling the PS4 at a discounted price this late in the cycle.

They are gearing up for the next generation, have massive R&D costs to cover, and most likely will be taking a loss on PS5 hardware for a while upon release (as most console manufacturers do on launch). Why take any risks with losing money on selling discounted PS4s when they can coast on strong software releases and the dividends of a really popular system?

It would be like day trading as someone who is about to retire rather than living off of a more stable income.

 

[goonergaz]

Who is doing that. I'm not seeing any of that. Only thing I'm seeing is people being far too optimistic given cyclicality, slate and next gen announcements.

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IMO Ex-Actarus and potentially Benji (more implication that statement)

So what are your guesstimates over the next 4/5 years for PS4? What side of the 130m fence are you on?

 

[Deleted member 2785]

I have PS4 US units dropping about 7% in 2019, another 15% in 2020, then another 24% in 2021, an additional 30% in 2022 and market exit. Shrug.

I don't track or forecast WW totals, so I'm not too interested in the fence.

 

[nib95]

I have PS4 US units dropping about 7% in 2019, another 15% in 2020, then another 24% in 2021, an additional 30% in 2022 and market exit. Shrug.

I don't track or forecast WW totals, so I'm not too interested in the fence.

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Presumably this is you taking into account any subsequent price drops etc? Especially given a 7% drop for 2019 (6 years into a consoles life) isn't much of a drop all things considered.

 

[Deleted member 2785]

Presumably this is you taking into account any subsequent price drops etc? Especially given a 7% drop for 2019 (6 years into a consoles life) isn't much at all.

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I lean optimistic on hardware these days given what we've been seeing. Downside case could result in declines of 25%, give or take. But I don't think that's super likely.

 

[Deleted member 12833]

I have PS4 US units dropping about 7% in 2019, another 15% in 2020, then another 24% in 2021, an additional 30% in 2022 and market exit. Shrug.

I don't track or forecast WW totals, so I'm not too interested in the fence.

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This seems more realistic, if anything too optimistic. I think others were referring to people predicting 30% declines for 2019.

 

[Benji]

IMO Ex-Actarus and potentially Benji (more implication that statement)

So what are your guesstimates over the next 4/5 years for PS4? What side of the 130m fence are you on?

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PS4 dropped by 2 million units YoY. This is despite God of War and Spider-Man having record setting performances and Fortnite pushing huge amounts of hardware throughout the year and Monster Hunter World pushing a ton of hardware in Japan.

If anything me predicting it being down only 3-4 million from that is realistic, if anything optimistic

 

[nib95]

PS4 dropped by 2 million units YoY. This is despite God of War and Spider-Man having record setting performances and Fortnite pushing huge amounts of hardware throughout the year and Monster Hunter World pushing a ton of hardware in Japan.

If anything me predicting it being down only 3-4 million from that is realistic, if anything optimistic

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But that is 5 years in, with no major price cut. I'd imagine the cost of the console is holding it back somewhat, but I'm guessing Sony is going for profit over volume.

 

[Benji]

But that is 5 years in, with no major price cut. I'd imagine the cost of the console is holding it back somewhat, but I'm guessing Sony is going for profit over volume.

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As Mat noted, price sensitivity isnt as big a factor as people think it is.

A price drop will definitely help soften the drop and I'm expecting one. $249.99 will likely happen sometime this year.

I just think people expecting a marginal drop or it somehow even being up are waaaaay too optimistic

 

[nib95]

As Mat noted, price sensitivity isnt as big a factor as people think it is.

A price drop will definitely help soften the drop and I'm expecting one. $249.99 will likely happen sometime this year.

I just think people expecting a marginal drop or it somehow even being up are waaaaay too optimistic

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I actually thought Mat's drop percentage for 2019 seemed a bit optimistic if anything. 6 years in, with a new gen rumoured around the corner, a massive install base already, I just can't see it continuing to claw in the sort of sales volume it has been, unless it hits impulse buy pricing, but what do I know lol.

 

[Deleted member 2785]

My hardware forecasts are generally pretty good, get less error than most analysts. However, range of error on any video game related forecast is always higher than compared to other industries. And I probably have some recency bias as well as potentially swinging too far towards optimism after my forecast in both 2017 and 2018 for PS4 ended up being too conservative. As with any VG forecast, as long as you end up in the ballpark it's pretty good. But, sure, my current outlook could be too optimistic. Numbers are hard.

 

[goonergaz]

I have PS4 US units dropping about 7% in 2019, another 15% in 2020, then another 24% in 2021, an additional 30% in 2022 and market exit. Shrug.

I don't track or forecast WW totals, so I'm not too interested in the fence.

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You can simply put your figure to WW - I don't see an issue with that, I appreciate not all regions react the same but using that you're talking ~16.5m to 14m to 10.5m (I've assumed YoY) - so there's around 40m which hits 130m

PS4 dropped by 2 million units YoY. This is despite God of War and Spider-Man having record setting performances and Fortnite pushing huge amounts of hardware throughout the year and Monster Hunter World pushing a ton of hardware in Japan.

If anything me predicting it being down only 3-4 million from that is realistic, if anything optimistic

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Oh yeah, I think it's crossed wires - I was talking about the PS4 lifetime you only quoted one year, which I thought was optimistic, however the context seemed to be within it being unlikely to hit 130m (which I mayb took the wrong way)

 

[Wander_]

how is january looking btw? I'm expecting big numbers for KH3

 

[Deleted member 2785]

You can simply put your figure to WW

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Someone else can, but I won't. Shrug.

 

[HeroR]

When people say the Switch sold the most in 2018 so they mean WW, the US, or both?