I'm speaking of hardware, not the game itself. It will move lots of hardware and obviously the game will sell incredibly well, possibly setting launch records.
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NPD November 2018: All three consoles over 1.3m for the month
- Thread starter ZhugeEX
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I'm speaking of hardware, not the game itself. It will move lots of hardware and obviously the game will sell incredibly well, possibly setting launch records.
We aren't completely sure of either WW or US yet. It could be neither, one, or both.
2019 doesn't have God of War or a game that can replicate the success of Fortnite in the first half and it's up in the air if LoU2 makes it this year, and even then I doubt it has an impact that Spider-man did. No RDR2 type of game either. Mat and Benji are being optimistic about the drop, IMO, even with a price drop factored into the equation. If(when) they announce PS5 this year I think it's going to impact sales of PS4 as well.
No one's saying they don't count. I'm just saying it's a bit silly to tout the combined sales of a game that has a huge amount of crossover as Sony's biggest game ever
I'm not underselling Sony's exclusives. I have no doubt TLoU 2 is going to do great, like 10+ million. I'm just saying it doesn't make sense to combine both of their numbers and use that as an indication of how well TLoU 2 will do on the PS4 alone as there is going to be a huge amount of crossover between the people who bought TLoU on the PS3 and the PS4
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Why $100? Why not $1. They may lose money on every unit, but they can make up for that in volume.
Hey, I've consistently said that the PS4 is a beast in terms of sales. I just don't think its unreasonable to say that the PS4 will naturally begin to sell less and less at this point in its life and that there aren't as many folk left to sell the system to. At this point, price drops are mainly to slow the decline. I'd say 120+ million is a given by the end
Do we know some previous openings for the franchise? I'm hoping this can be the biggest.
At this point Sony all about profit and they going to sell over 100 million units anyway .
They really have no need to drop the price to much .
Unless PS4 sales drop really hard but if PS5 out by then i don't think it will bother them to much .
They really have no need to drop the price to much .
Unless PS4 sales drop really hard but if PS5 out by then i don't think it will bother them to much .
That's confusion since people here are posting that Switch was #1 in 2018 as it is a fact.
We know that the Switch was the best-selling console of 2018 in France, though that's not that surprising.
Not sure where the worldwide rumblings are coming from but if what all the insiders have been hinting at and what to make from Sonys end of the year PR it's very likely that the Switch is at least #1 in the US. But yes, nothing is confirmed and thus all should be considered speculation or rumor as of right now.
If Switch is #1 in the US, chances are fairly good that it's #1 worldwide since we know that the Switch outsold the PS4 by a nice margin in Japan and the Switch did good in Europe thanks to France, although PS4 took that region overall.
On this topic, the figure to look for from Nintendo's Q3 Supplementary Info (probably coming first few days of February) is LTD sell-through, not just shipped total.
Switch global hardware sell-through was >13M through the end of 2017 last year (link - pg. 3 of 17).
So to match/surpass PS4's 18M global sell-through in calendar 2018, Switch global LTD sell through would need to be >31M.
If Q3 ends up at 10-11M shipped, that puts global LTD shipped at 32.8 - 33.8M, which would mean >31M sold to consumers is feasible.
Switch global hardware sell-through was >13M through the end of 2017 last year (link - pg. 3 of 17).
So to match/surpass PS4's 18M global sell-through in calendar 2018, Switch global LTD sell through would need to be >31M.
If Q3 ends up at 10-11M shipped, that puts global LTD shipped at 32.8 - 33.8M, which would mean >31M sold to consumers is feasible.
Word on the street is that Microsoft is going to be announcing a streaming only box. I imagine that would be subscription based and I imagine it's not going to cost $299. But I don't know how subscription revenue from streaming will match retail/digital revenue and profits, so that's not a given.
Interesting, is there any particular reason for this ? Are gamers somewhat more unpredictable than others when it comes to their consuming habits ? Or is it explained by something from the developer side ?
I'm asking this, but I'm not even sure there is an answer
Nintendo rarely shares the sell-through figures, so it may not be in the report.
nintendo only shares the sell-through of japan, americas and most of europe, not global.
Yup.
Yeah forgot that footnote. So it seems like this will be undetermined. Sony definitively sold 18M in CY 2018. Nintendo may hit or exceed that number (and perhaps will report themselves as #1 if they do), but we may never know with any accuracy what exactly that figure is.
I guess we'll be able to compare shipped totals for Q4 FY17 and Q1-3 FY18 for both.
Few reasons:
1) Secretive nature of the industry makes assumption estimates difficult. Pricing, availability, timing of bundles, software slates, etc are all fairly unpredictable.
2) We only have monthly data to work with on the physical side, which makes things harder.
3) Consumer reaction to offerings are unpredictable, and assigning quantitative corollary attributes to the offerings themselves is extremely challenging.
Basically, we don't know a lot about what's coming, when it's coming, what it'll be priced at, or whether consumers will care.
It´s not like we couldn´t have seen bigger sales, especially in the US, if Sony had been a bit more aggressive with the price. And i don´t see it playing out any different in 2019 either. How big the drop will be in 2019 is going to depend mostly on Sony´s pricing strategy. If they say fuck it we´re going all in on profitability and just keep the PS4 at 299 the drop will be indeed massive.
I hope PS4 somehow manages a 17-18 million year. It means the industry / platform is insanely healthy
I just find it unlikely
Yeah, I think that the lack of platform defining exclusives coupled with a weak or nonexistent price drop will make sales slow down significantly. I wouldn't be shocked to see 4 or 5m less, honestly (unless they drop the price)
Erm...I did...in the post you're quoting! Lol
Yeah, it's definitely peeked and other than LoU2 I can't see anything that will shift large amounts. I guess it all comes down to how much Sony can reduce it by as to if it can keep reasonable figures moving forward.
Lmao.
This is what confuses me about the "well Sony would've won easily if they kept the BF deal!" remarks.
Like, yeah, they all would've if they had a deal like that. Kind of a pointless statement
That is not the case .
Something has to have demand for that to matter .
Even at $99 the GC had no demand .
PS4 bundles for $199 for both years had huge amount of demand that there were selling out before BF.
XB was under PS4 price ( by $10 ) in 2017 and they get out sold by 350k plus and Sony sold out early .
It's the same reason why some games no matter how you drop the price don't get sales from the lack of interest\demand.
All depends on how much Nsw would win the US with. EU and row should go to PS4 comfortably.
We will know soon enough though =)
Didn't say otherwise. But Switch did extremely well in Europe since it was #1 in France by a decent margin and that's 22% of the Europe market. It also did well in the UK, although Sony won that one by a nice amount.
And the Switch beat the PS4 by around 1.8 in Japan. So even if PS4 beat Switch by 2-2.5 million in Europe (numbers out of my butt btw), Switch would only have to sell 700k more than Sony in the US to match it and Switch wasn't that far behind in the US to make up the rest. Especially since it's rumored Switch did over 2 million.
Either way, they will be close.
And what's row?
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Unless FF7 launches in 2019 which is not as unlikely as it sounds.
Source for that 22%? That's interesting because it would make UK + Germany + France = 70-75% of the European market, which seems a little high.
It was actually in the France thread.
https://www.resetera.com/threads/ni...ations-and-higher-than-in-2017-updated.92392/
Don't those numbers include mobile and everything else too? You won't have a good estimation when talking about console sales only if so.
Probably, but I don't know what's the mobile and console split is in Europe. Only going by money, the poster I quoted broke it down that UK had 33% of the game market, then France at 25%, and than Germany with 23%.
Not to mention that poster is only assuming the EU portion of the total.
Using a Google search, Franch is in terms of game revenue, which includes mobile is 7th.
https://newzoo.com/insights/rankings/top-100-countries-by-game-revenues/
Funny enough, the UK falls behind Germany on this chart.
Do you really think that my 125/127 million units prediction for the PS4 lifetime is underestimating the potential legs of the console ? I would disagree.
The Wii sold 90 million units faster than the PS4 did if I'm not wrong. I'm pretty sure that back in the day in 2010 or 2011, everybody was expecting the Wii to sell much more than 101 million units lifetime... I remember we were talking about the Wii catching the PS2 ! You remember that ? It did not happen. Actually, the Wii just sold 15 million units in its last 3 major fiscal years ( FY11, FY12 and FY13 )...
I'm not saying in any way that PS4 will get such a drop of course. But I think we should not expect a small decline. The decline could be more dratic than we expect. So from 18 million to 12 million, it could happen.