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Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
I do not think Switch can do like PS4 as we can already see Switch barely sold around 300k even with good stock and big title in Oct. Also there are no discounts for Switch for black Friday and no big 3rd party titles, where PS4 is available at $199 with big 3rd party push and greater library.
I am curious to see Switch numbers for November, and if it can sell above 800k then I can see it has some good demand and big success in future, otherwise (anything less or close to 500k) I would guess that it selling only to Nintendo enthusiasts mostly.

I'm expecting this honestly. The real impact of Mario Odyssey on Switch is gonna show in November as that's when the game really started to be everywhere the eye could see, with big pushes for it like Dunkey's video that has like 3 million views now. Launch attention was actually pretty weak compared to the massive wave of attention it got starting a few days later.

Expect Switch to not only be #1 but also thoroughly far beyond current numbers.

I was joking with the 1.5 million part lol, it's just a deja vu of what happen with PS4 though.
It had a terrible October in 2015 compared to people expectation (pretty much like Switch btw, mostly thought 400K was super likely, and in the end it sold under 300K) and then an explosive November.

I think Switch will definitively sell over 1 million this month anyway. Maybe 1.1-1.2 million depend on the stock.
 

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
Yeah I see Switch number 1. 1 million sold. XB1X 2. 400k. Nintendo will sell whatever they produce.

My predictions right now are 1.1 million for Switch and 1 million both PS4 / XB1 (400K X; 600K S).

But yeah, it will be close. Also i have to admin XB1 X did better than expect. I thought 300K was more likely to be honest, but after UK performance it should easy surpass that.
 

Bitch Pudding

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,202
Actually, if the ratio between XBOX One S and PS4 stays the same in November, the outcome of the race for #1 isn't all that clear. Let's also not forget that Switch now competes against two heavily discounted SKUs.
 

Pokémon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,681
I have just checked the NPD numbers of October/November 2015 and damn PS4 went from 290k to over 1.5M sold units. Let's see how much the Switch will sell in November.
 

Chrome Hyena

Member
Oct 30, 2017
8,768
Actually, if the ratio between XBOX One S and PS4 stays the same in November, the outcome of the race for #1 isn't all that clear. Let's also not forget that Switch now competes against two heavily discounted SKUs.
True... i didnt count on the base models... hmm it may well be a difference of a 100k separating them all or less. I also expect 3ds with Pokemon to sell gangbusters. 400k .
 

Soony Xbone Uhh

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,156
I think some are way to optimistic about Switch stock and demand in November just like this month.
I don't see Switch doing 1 million in November.
December is always stronger for Nintendo.

October was just 300k. And the last week when Odyssey released, was the biggest one out of those 4 October weeks. After a huge launch week, the week after is always a dip in hardware sales.

Also have a look at Japan Switch sales and supply. There is no explosion yet and i expect that to happen close to Christmas first. I do think Switch sales will be in line with the first Ps4 November. December on the other hand could be up to 1.5 million
 

Deleted member 1813

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
156
I can't help but see the GT situation as disappointing all around, from both the perspective of Sony and the consumer. Microsoft is pumping out yearly Forza titles that seem to always be reasonably well received while providing a consistent revenue stream.

Meanwhile you have what is very likely a bloated and mismanaged dev cycle on the GT side, forcing fans to wait years between entries.
 

v_iHuGi

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
5,155
My predictions right now are 1.1 million for Switch and 1 million both PS4 / XB1 (400K X; 600K S).

But yeah, it will be close. Also i have to admin XB1 X did better than expect. I thought 300K was more likely to be honest, but after UK performance it should easy surpass that.

They did that last year November with worse promotions and in election year, there's zero chance they do just 1M.

PS4 - 1.6M
Xbox One - 1.7M
Switch - 1.9M with Stock and promotions, 1M without stock and promotions.

Since I don't think Nintendo is doing any promotions I'll say 1M.
 

AegonSnake

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,566
Gran Turismo 6 had a standard campaign with a lot of stuff to do solo and IIRC it didn't light the charts in fire. Like with SFV, I think people overstimate the role of single player content in sales number. GT as a franchise needs further improvements to be a phenomenon again imo.
He released gt6 a month after ps4s launch with no cross gen port. It flopped because it became irrelevant on an irrelevant console.
 

ccieag

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
1,339
Vail, CO
Switch will lose November, because no sales. PS4 will win November, with X1 in second, and Switch in third.

Cheap matters in November. December will be Switch's though
 

MasterChumly

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,903
People are being overly optimistic amount the switch stock situation. Nintendo is going to struggle to hit 1 million in November.
 

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
People are being overly optimistic amount the switch stock situation. Nintendo is going to struggle to hit 1 million in November.

They expect to ship 9.11 million between October and March, and i can tell you they will 99% beat this number, considering they increased the prediction by 4 million the last quarter.
Of those +9 million, if not 10 million if they beat their expectation, 2 million from US between November and December are easy gonna happen, maybe they are also probabily too conservate...
 
Oct 25, 2017
17,904
Considering PS4 was 3rd place after Switch followed by SNES Classic, I'm gonna guess that's a hard no.
The position doesn't matter much. There could be a 100K or 10K difference between spots for all we know.

Did we get any number leaks yet?
I think Switch at <300K is all we got.

The Switch will win because it's the hot Christmas product. Both November and December.
It'll be based on stock more than likely.
 

gcwy

Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,685
Houston, TX
I don't think it really matters which console is no. 1 or no. 2. They need to sell well enough to be considered a success for that specific month. However, I am expecting Switch to be the highest selling console with Xbox Ones closely behind and then PS4. If the latter happens to be true, this would be the first time this gen PS4 would be third place.
 

Deleted member 3017

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
17,653
I think November is XB1s to lose. With XB1X selling about 400k units, plus some good deals on top, it shouldn't really have a problem pushing the most units sold.

Switch should be #2 with PS4 #3 unless the PS4 BF deals do crazy and Sony has the stock to match, which I sorta doubt.

Oh wow, I didn't realize the X had some that many units. Yeah, XB1 is going to have a great month .
 
Oct 25, 2017
13,246
Oh wow, I didn't realize the X had some that many units. Yeah, XB1 is going to have a great month .

That's just my personal ballpark based on the UK figure of 80k. I can see the XB1X selling about double what the Pro did in its launch month, putting it in the 400-500k range. In comparison, Switch is hot so it can definitely take the month but I think its much harder to overcome that sort of lead.

PS4, it's all about deals. I'm unconvinced it can take the top spot.
 

HPH

Member
Oct 25, 2017
449
Very interesting to see if Skyrim charts in the top 20 games this November. It has the best chance out of all the 3rd party titles on Switch.
 

Catdaddy

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,963
TN
Evil Within 2 and Wolfenstein II sales are heartbreaking. I need those games to get a third entry to finish off their storylines.

Not that its a good gage BUT on the PS4 looked at the likes on Wolfenstein 2 and its at 8140 likes vs, LA Noire Remaster at 8620 likes. Shame its appears to be poorly performing, doubt we'll get a 3rd one at this rate,
 

NSESN

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 25, 2017
25,319
I think Switch wins December, but no way it wins November without promotions.
 

Psycho_Mantis

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,965
GT6 is hardly a flattering comparison for what is the first (and likely only) Gran Turismo on PS4. In Britain, first week sales were lagging behind every leading GT entry sans the original.

GT6 went on to sell 5 million+ on the PS3, thats more than numerous Forza Motorsport titles combined. GTS was a notable increase from GT6 as well. Sure its a big decline from GT5 but the racing game genre is doing that.

F1, Dirt, Project Cars, Forza M have all declined as well.

I can't help but see the GT situation as disappointing all around, from both the perspective of Sony and the consumer. Microsoft is pumping out yearly Forza titles that seem to always be reasonably well received while providing a consistent revenue stream.

Meanwhile you have what is very likely a bloated and mismanaged dev cycle on the GT side, forcing fans to wait years between entries.

Meanwhile, Forza continues to decline and sell a fraction of GT. GTS isn't some universally hated game. For racing fans its the best racing game on consoles and DLC content should pad put the content. GTS is simply disliked for its change in direction, not because it was executed badly.
 

Benji

Self Requested Ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,114
Yea, it's pretty crazy. Any other year and PS4 was a shoe-in for taking the holidays.

Yeah I would normally think PS4 would win the month but I think the X launch will make the difference between the 2. Might be a close month but as of now I think Xbox will edge out the month
 

faint

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,156
I think the Switch will be a tough sell in Nov/Dec with Microsoft and Sony offering $199 consoles. I still expect it to come in second overall. I'm torn on whether or not the XB1X will push Microsoft to first or if Sony's dominance will continue and keep them steadily ahead.
 

freeradical

Member
Oct 27, 2017
514
The BF deals on PS4 and XB1S are going to dominate hardware numbers in Nov. I'm feeling like PlayStation will just be ahead of XBox and there will be a reasonable gap to Switch in 3rd place. But all this is for the next prediction thread. Can't wait☺
 

Johannes

Member
Oct 28, 2017
560
SteamSpy shows The Evil Within 2 at 113k and The New Colossus with around 208k owners, the latter of which at least seems decent enough? For reference it lists Assassin's Creed Origins which came out that same day at around 320k.
Within the first 21 days, The Wolfenstein 2 had fewer owners than Dishonored 2 and Prey - both of which had lackluster launch & (seemingly) more modest marketing push, than the new Wolfenstein.
 

Imad issa

Banned
Nov 8, 2017
558
My predictions right now are 1.1 million for Switch and 1 million both PS4 / XB1 (400K X; 600K S).

But yeah, it will be close. Also i have to admin XB1 X did better than expect. I thought 300K was more likely to be honest, but after UK performance it should easy surpass that.

No chance switch beating xbone family. If it does happen by some miracle, that would be very embarrassing for Microsoft.
 

Soony Xbone Uhh

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,156
GT6 went on to sell 5 million+ on the PS3, thats more than numerous Forza Motorsport titles combined. GTS was a notable increase from GT6 as well. Sure its a big decline from GT5 but the racing game genre is doing that.

F1, Dirt, Project Cars, Forza M have all declined as well.



Meanwhile, Forza continues to decline and sell a fraction of GT. GTS isn't some universally hated game. For racing fans its the best racing game on consoles and DLC content should pad put the content. GTS is simply disliked for its change in direction, not because it was executed badly.
Beside Forza Motorsport 1 and Forza Motorsport 7, because the game just launched, most likely no Forza Game sold below 2.5 million units.
Your math does not work out.
Forza games, just like Gran Turismo also have huge legs thanks to bundles, pricecuts and cross game promotions.

Games don't stop selling just because publisher do not announce or update sales figures after a particular milestone is reached, like 1 million in the first few months.
If that would be the case. GT6 would've also sold just 2 or 3 million maximum.

GT is bigger than Forza, but not as much as it used to be. Sony and Polyhony Digital need to handle the franchise correctly, otherwise this could even change in the near future. Especially with the Forza presence on PC now.
 
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Gotdatmoney

Member
Oct 28, 2017
14,500
Black Friday is normally insane for Deals and with a huge consolidation of sales in Nov and Dec I actually think the Switch will be third. But a healthy third. I imagine the PS4 is going to be first and the XB1 will be second.
 

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
I think people still not realize that deals for Switch literally mean nothing. It will sell whatever they will ship, that's it.

If they ship 2 million, they will sell 2 million units in November even at 300$ and no console will get close to that, easy.
 
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Psycho_Mantis

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,965
Beside Forza Motorsport 1 and Forza Motorsport 7, because the game just launched, most likely no Forza Game sold below 2.5 million units.
Your math does not work out.
Forza games, just like Gran Turismo also have huge legs thanks to bundles, pricecuts and cross game promotions.

Games don't stop selling just because publisher do not announce or update sales figures after a particular milestone is reached, like 1 million in the first few months.
If that would be the case. GT6 would've also sold just 2 or 3 million maximum.

GT is bigger than Forza, but not as much as it used to be. Sony and Polyhony Digital need to handle the franchise correctly, otherwise this could even change in the near future. Especially with the Forza presence on PC now.

I like how you just made up numbers.
 

Fredrik

Member
Oct 27, 2017
9,003
I thought so as well but this is not the case.



Digital F7 sales bought on pc are not counted. We know that US is the biggest market for Windows Store Games.

Also of note, the Day 1 Ultimate Edition released on September 28. So we have to assume this was not counted as well.


If you factor those things in, the gap between F7 and GTS would be even bigger. But the question is by how much, and the problem is we have no idea what those numbers would be.

And putting revenue aside, if GTS actually did sell more units, perhaps it was because of the factors I listed above?

But with no data this is all just speculation on my part.
Okay that changes stuff quite a bit. The PC version was the obvious choice at the time of the launch since XB1 is so weak. I guess some bought it on the X as well, which we'll see next month I guess, but I bought it for PC and I'm pretty sure many other did as well considering all the performance talk "at the other place" after launch.
This is why we shouldn't take these type of figures so serious. They really aren't showing the real picture.
 

Revolsin

Usage of alt-account.
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,373
People severely underestimating how huge a console's first holiday season can be. I'm expecting a lot of crow to be eaten in the next NPD.
 

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,119
This is why we shouldn't take these type of figures so serious. They really aren't showing the real picture.

Ahh. So it's the "figures" that shouldn't be taken so seriously. The pages of bickering about which racing game may or may not have sold better in one month based on random extrapolations and gut feels, however, is very serious indeed.
 
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