NPD October 2017: Shadow of War #1 SW, Nintendo Switch #1 HW

BioDigital Jazzman · Nov 18, 2017

Eh, I see the Xbox selling more in November. The price is comparable to the PS4($189vs$199). There's a hot new game launching in 3 weeks exclusively in the Xbox for the time being, and also there's months of pre-orders for the scorpio to add into the equation. December may be a different story but I don't see it happening this year

v_iHuGi · Nov 18, 2017

Revolsin said:
People severely underestimating how huge a console's first holiday season can be. I'm expecting a lot of crow to be eaten in the next NPD.

Yup.

Dre3001 · Nov 18, 2017

I'm expecting the Switch to hit around 2 million in November. Great library, tons of positive press, etc. it will be the "IT" item this holiday.

The X1X for me is a wild card, it is getting tons of positive press but I think parents will be wanting to grab the cheaper systems around Black Friday. $500 is still a ton of money to the casual gamer or parent buying a system for their kid.

It may be an even tougher sell with both XB1S and PS4 slim next to it. I think most casuals may opt for the regular system this time around.

This is an enthusiast site so it's common to see people with the latest and greatest but I think the average gamers may be much farther behind on getting 4K tvs and upgrading their consoles as well.

asari · Nov 18, 2017

I feel sorry for Bethesda, but I did my part now and bought Wolf2.

ArkhamFantasy · Nov 18, 2017

asari said:
I feel sorry for Bethesda, but I did my part now and bought Wolf2.

4 good single player games in a row from them, all under performed. =(

Fredrik · Nov 18, 2017

MatPiscatella said:
Ahh. So it's the "figures" that shouldn't be taken so seriously. The pages of bickering about which racing game may or may not have sold better in one month based on random extrapolations and gut feels, however, is very serious indeed.

No that type of bickering is worse of course, but sales figures from NPD are often used as facts on the boards for the US sales, if lots of sales for certain games/versions aren't even counted then we simply shouldn't compare them to anything where similar sales are counted and take the results seriously. I mean, as an example, if Mario's sales figures are without digital sales and Shadow of War's figures are with digital sales, why should we have a sales top list where Shadow of War is number 1? Do we know that it's number 1 if Mario's digital sales are counted? I'm just thinking that the ranking is pointless if all sales aren't counted for all games.
Regarding Forza 7 I'm even more surprised now that it managed to place above GTS if PC digital sales aren't counted.

Ryng™ · Nov 18, 2017

Dre3001 said:
I'm expecting the Switch to hit around 2 million in November. Great library, tons of positive press, etc. it will be the "IT" item this holiday.

Nintendo don't have enough stock for that. I think 2 million in November and December will happen in 2018. There will be surely some promotion for Switch at 250$ , and with Pokémon and no stock issue, it will be an insane holiday for Nintendo.

imt558 · Nov 18, 2017

Fredrik said:
Regarding Forza 7 I'm even more surprised now that it managed to place above GTS if PC digital sales aren't counted.

Can anybody provide how many units some MS game sold on Windows Store in US? If FH3 sold 2.5 milion WW since Feb., i'm pretty sure X1 games on WS sold like crap in US, maybe nothing. After QB sales, honestly, i don't believe that any MS game on Windows Store sold good. And also you can't count free PC copy if X1 version is bought via digital way
Btw. F7 had more SKU's. F7 had a almost 2 and a half week headstart. GTS sold more units in a half less time.

Soony Xbone Uhh · Nov 18, 2017

Psycho_Mantis said:
I like how you just made up numbers.

Just like you did?
You can leave the numbers out of equation and just focus on the general stance if you prefer it that way.

Forza Motorsport 6 is with almost absolut certainty the lowest selling Forza game this generation, because it wasn't a launch titel, wasn't as heavily bundled like others, did not get a re-release and is not on multiple platforms, yet the game still sold a million units within the first 3 months of sale. It did not stop selling at the end of 2015.
http://news.xbox.com/2016/01/04/greatest-games-extends-to-2016/

Deleted member 2785 · Nov 18, 2017

Fredrik, each company chooses to either participate or not participate in digital reporting. Nintendo chooses not to, as does the windows store at this time.

So, what are the options? Either: A) report data that everyone chooses to share and keep growing that list until the market is covered, B) report nothing until full coverage is attained, not knowing when that might happen, or C) just have me make up some extrapolations for what that uncovered digital might be?

Which is the best course of action of these three options?

ZhugeEX · Nov 18, 2017

As a note to posters here.

I wouldn't read too much into the individual rankings.

What I mean by that is Mario, Assassin's Creed and Shadow of War all did well at the top of the chart. The fact that Shadow of War is number 1 in the ranking doesn't mean Assassin's Creed or Mario suddenly did terrible.

General trends are what are important when looking at the rankings. For example, you can see how the racing genre doesn't rank as high as it used to. Another key takeaway is that The Evil Within 2 and Wolfenstein 2 charted lower than every other new title. This can be attributed to the game type (single player, linear, story driven, $60)

It's from these general observations that you can start to understand wider market trends.

Oregano · Nov 18, 2017

ZhugeEX said:
As a note to posters here.

I wouldn't read too much into the individual rankings.

What I mean by that is Mario, Assassin's Creed and Shadow of War all did well at the top of the chart. The fact that Shadow of War is number 1 in the ranking doesn't mean Assassin's Creed or Mario suddenly did terrible.

General trends are what are important when looking at the rankings. For example, you can see how the racing genre doesn't rank as high as it used to. Another key takeaway is that The Evil Within 2 and Wolfenstein 2 charted lower than every other new title. This can be attributed to the game type (single player, linear, story driven, $60)

It's from these general observations that you can start to understand wider market trends.

Well they charted above Fire Emblem Warriors!

....that's something I guess. :S

Fredrik · Nov 18, 2017

imt558 said:
Can anybody provide how many units some MS game sold on Windows Store in US? If FH3 sold 2.5 milion WW since Feb., i'm pretty sure X1 games on WS sold like crap in US, maybe nothing. And also you can't count free PC copy if X1 version is bought via digital way

How do you come to that conclusion?

Anyhow I'm just questioning what the point is to argue about sales rankings when some games count every sale and some only some of the sales. I've always thought that every game for every platform was counted the same way. This changes everything imo.

imt558 said:
Btw. F7 had more SKU's. F7 had a almost 2 and a half week headstart. GTS sold more units in a half less time.

It's extremely surprising nonetheless considering how many that jump in day 1, especially if PC sales arent counting and we're basically counting Forza 7 XB1 vs GTS PS4 sales, I thought GTS would sell like 3:1 easily just by having the name Gran Turismo in the title and being on PS4. It'll be interesting to see if we're getting a second sales peak for F7 in Nov because of Xbox One X.

Nintendojitsu · Nov 18, 2017

ccieag said:
Switch will lose November, because no sales. PS4 will win November, with X1 in second, and Switch in third.

Cheap matters in November. December will be Switch's though

quoting myself from the TIME thread

Nintendojitsu said:
Easier said than done.

Don't get me wrong. The X1X is a great piece of kit but the demand is elsewhere. The PS4 has the majority of the HD console mindshare, sales advantage, price drop and then you have Nintendo, who have a three-pronged attack on the Holidays with the Pokemon USUM and the 3DS, the SNES Mini and the NPD darling Switch. In my opinion, Microsoft picked the worst time to release the X1X. Their competitors are at their strongest with no gaps in which Microsoft to fill but an more expensive option for enthusiasts. Not very Black Friday friendly if you ask me.

Nintendo will win on revenue alone regardless if Switch is in second or lower. (I highly doubt the Switch will be lower than second for November or December)

Deleted member 2785 · Nov 18, 2017

Fredrik said:
Anyhow I'm just questioning what the point is to argue about sales rankings when some games count every sale and some only some of the sales.

There is no point in arguing about sales rankings.

It's a silly thing to do and minutes of your life you'll never get back.

On their death beds, people are going to look back on the time they spent arguing over sales of plastic boxes and video games and wish they'd spent that time doing just about anything else.

Deleted member 2785 · Nov 18, 2017

Derp.

Entryhazard · Nov 18, 2017

Dre3001 said:
I'm expecting the Switch to hit around 2 million in November. Great library, tons of positive press, etc. it will be the "IT" item this holiday.

The demand is there but I can't be really sure Nintendo will be able to make enough Switches

Psycho_Mantis · Nov 18, 2017

Soony Xbone Uhh said:
Just like you did?
You can leave the numbers out of equation and just focus on the general stance if you prefer it that way.

Nah. Forza has been declining ever since 4 in the UK is what I referred to. Someone also post number of users for F6 and F7 shortly after launch, which also showed the decline.

GT6 selling 5 million+ is on PD's website for sales.

Soony Xbone Uhh said:
Forza Motorsport 6 is with almost absolut certainty the lowest selling Forza game this generation, because it wasn't a launch titel, wasn't as heavily bundled like others, did not get a re-release and is not on multiple platforms, yet the game still sold a million units within the first 3 months of sale. It did not stop selling at the end of 2015.
http://news.xbox.com/2016/01/04/greatest-games-extends-to-2016/

How does this support your statement of FM selling at least 2.5 million per iteration. Like I said, you made some number up.

Vena · Nov 18, 2017

MatPiscatella said:
Fredrik, each company chooses to either participate or not participate in digital reporting. Nintendo chooses not to, as does the windows store at this time.

So, what are the options? Either: A) report data that everyone chooses to share and keep growing that list until the market is covered, B) report nothing until full coverage is attained, not knowing when that might happen, or C) just have me make up some extrapolations for what that uncovered digital might be?

Which is the best course of action of these three options?

If its of any use, we can use Mario to do some ballpark estimates on the eShop if we use something like a 10% ratio for Nintendo (or Mario) but even then its very limited in what it can tell us because as of checking last only Rocket League was above Mario (sales are tracked on the eShop in two week intervals so right now Mario's placement is all of its digital sales and bundle downloads). This suggests RL is doing *really* well.

Skyrim, DOOM, and Stardew are below Mario but we have no floor set unfortunately so we have no idea what those titles are selling other than 'less than Mario's current digital performance', and even that is vague and further convoluted with the bundled downloads.

Jade1962 · Nov 18, 2017

What sales curve are people looking at to predict switch will get anywhere 2 million sales in a month?

v_iHuGi · Nov 18, 2017

Jade1962 said:
What sales curve are people looking at to predict switch will get anywhere 2 million sales in a month?

Switch selling out during this year and first Christmas with a Mario and Zelda games attached to the console.

I think it's going to do amazing numbers.

Jraphics Horse · Nov 18, 2017

Jade1962 said:
What sales curve are people looking at to predict switch will get anywhere 2 million sales in a month?

Actually... looking at 2014 Xbox estimates for Oct->Nov, applying that curve to Switch would get you almost 2 million. I don't think that'll happen though :p

Elandyll · Nov 18, 2017

Benji said:
Yeah I would normally think PS4 would win the month but I think the X launch will make the difference between the 2. Might be a close month but as of now I think Xbox will edge out the month

I think by en large the 1X sales will come from the wealthier fringe of those who would have bought a 1S otherwise (plus the early adopters who buy everything and the die hard Xbox fans looking for more perfs), so I don't see a big bump.
Switch will have a bump, but because no deals and still aways from Xmas, not that big.
PS4 will dominate next week easily imo, thanks to a smoking deal (1Tb PS4 @ $199) and the two best deals around BF (Kohls and Gamestop).
I bet Sony has the shipments ready for it too.

My prediction for Nov NPD:

PS4 1.4m
XB1 1.2m (300 to 400k 1X, the 1S 500gb has been at $199 for a while now and not doing "that" hot on Amazon, that shows depressed interest in the doorbuster a bit imo)
Switch 600-700k (I also have doubts on Nin stocks for next week, they might want to prepare for the December rush)

December should be NS<>PS4 > XB1

Kill3r7 · Nov 18, 2017

asari said:
I feel sorry for Bethesda, but I did my part now and bought Wolf2.

Same here. Bought it twice, got the CE and now digital deluxe edition. They really need one of their big franchises in 2018.

Oregano · Nov 18, 2017

Jraphics Horse said:
Actually... looking at 2014 Xbox estimates for Oct->Nov, applying that curve to Switch would get you almost 2 million. I don't think that'll happen though :p

Don't Nintendo platforms tends to enjoy more than healthy Xmas boosts though?

The Switch seems to be getting a big push from retailers as well, it's mentioned in Amazon's black friday ad here in the UK and I saw on Gonintendo it's featured prominently in Best Buy's Christmas ad.

Fredrik · Nov 18, 2017

MatPiscatella said:
Fredrik, each company chooses to either participate or not participate in digital reporting. Nintendo chooses not to, as does the windows store at this time.

So, what are the options? Either: A) report data that everyone chooses to share and keep growing that list until the market is covered, B) report nothing until full coverage is attained, not knowing when that might happen, or C) just have me make up some extrapolations for what that uncovered digital might be?

Which is the best course of action of these three options?

I totally understand your point of view, you just present the data you have available. But here we're debating these rankings without thinking twice about the differences how they're counted. I never knew about these differences tbh, andnow that I do I just don't see the point. We're clearly not seeing the whole picture here but we're still debating it as if we do. :/

But the upside to these discussions is that it might push these companies to start presenting the complete figures, because I guess they all want to be no.1, if it's possible.

imt558 · Nov 18, 2017

Fredrik said:
How do you come to that conclusion?

Which game sold so good worldwide on Windows Store?

slavesnyder · Nov 18, 2017

MatPiscatella said:
On their death beds, people are going to look back on the time they spent arguing over sales of plastic boxes and video games and wish they'd spent that time doing just about anything else.

Yes, I'm paranoid — but am I paranoid enough?

Soony Xbone Uhh · Nov 18, 2017

Psycho_Mantis said:
Nah. Forza has been declining ever since 4 in the UK is what I referred to. Someone also post number of users for F6 and F7 shortly after launch, which also showed the decline.

GT6 selling 5 million+ is on PD's website for sales.

How does this support your statement of FM selling at least 2.5 million per iteration. Like I said, you made some number up.

The decline in the UK you talk about is retail launch sales. The landscape is so much different today. Day one physical sales are not that imporant anymore. They don't necessarily make up the majority of sales anymore.

The leader board for the first race after one week? Was around 1.35 million for both Forza Motorsport 6 and 7. Very similar, basically identical.
http://m./showpost.php?p=251466179
The leader board for Forza Motorsport 6 is at 4.85 million now.
The leader board for Forza Motorsport 5 is at 7.95 million now.
And I'm aware those are just accounts and not sales, but a ratio of below 50% is seems unlikely, don't you think?

You made up the number, that numerous Forza Motorsport titels combined sold below 5 million. (By my math that has to be 2 games at least and below 2.5m on average)
I just said it's most likely they're all above 2.5 million except the first iteration on the original Xbox and 7 just not yet.

I know the 5 million sales for GT 6 are directly from Polyphony Digital and accurate.
I disagree with your implication, that GT is still selling more than 2 Forza Motorsport games combined today. That's the whole point of my "made up numbers".

When you sell over 1 million in the first 3 months and the lifetime of your product is 3 years. It's quite easy to more than double your 3 month sales for an ongoing service based game. Having a long tail is pretty common these days. The opposite is the rare case now.

Y2Kev · Nov 18, 2017

yAAAAS I won GTS for $37!

Deleted member 15136 · Nov 18, 2017

Heck yeah, Forza!! And poor Wolfenstein... I know I did my part in buying the collector's edition!

Astandahl · Nov 18, 2017

Jraphics Horse said:
Actually... looking at 2014 Xbox estimates for Oct->Nov, applying that curve to Switch would get you almost 2 million. I don't think that'll happen though :p

Xbox One 2014 is a particular case. There was a price drop to 349 + AC Unity + 50 card gift which was by far the best option for the holiday season.

chromatic9 · Nov 18, 2017

Is it possible for someone to say if Forza 7 sold more units than Forza 4 and 6 at launch. A simple higher or lower?

Soony Xbone Uhh · Nov 18, 2017

chromatic9 said:
Is it possible for someone to say if Forza 7 sold more units than Forza 4 and 6 at launch. A simple higher or lower?

Yes for anyone with access to the NPD report including the digital data. I just don't think some will tell us.

Jraphics Horse · Nov 18, 2017

Astandahl said:
Xbox One 2014 is a particular case. There was a price drop to 349 + AC Unity + 50 card gift which was by far the best option for the holiday season.

yeah true, It was the first example I checked but I knew offers must have been a big thing in that case.

Oregano said:
Don't Nintendo platforms tends to enjoy more than healthy Xmas boosts though?

The Switch seems to be getting a big push from retailers as well, it's mentioned in Amazon's black friday ad here in the UK and I saw on Gonintendo it's featured prominently in Best Buy's Christmas ad.

You'd think generally that is the case, I looked at the 3DS's first year and that had a pretty weak November, I thought it picked up a lot of popularity by then but maybe not.

Edit: 3DS 2011 November ~795k, December ~1600k

SlothmanAllen · Nov 18, 2017

Late reaction to OP, but I think these numbers are miserable. The original PR thread from Nintendo had a poster showing NPD October 2008 and total hardware sales blow these out of the water. I honestly don't think the industry is healthy. Especially when you consider the fact that some of the hardware sales include the SNES Classic.

nightstalker962 · Nov 18, 2017

SlothmanAllen said:
Late reaction to OP, but I think these numbers are miserable. The original PR thread from Nintendo had a poster showing NPD October 2008 and total hardware sales blow these out of the water. I honestly don't think the industry is healthy. Especially when you consider the fact that some of the hardware sales include the SNES Classic.

I mean 2008 was when the Wii and DS were selling like crazy plus you still had PS3, 360, PSP, PS2, and maybe even GBA sales. Different times.

chromatic9 · Nov 18, 2017

Soony Xbone Uhh said:
Yes for anyone with access to the NPD report including the digital data. I just don't think some will tell us.

That would go without saying that someone could with access to the data. I was asking for one cheeky higher or lower as we all know numbers is a no go.

SlothmanAllen · Nov 18, 2017

nightstalker962 said:
I mean 2008 was when the Wii and DS were selling like crazy plus you still had PS3, 360, PSP, PS2, and maybe even GBA sales. Different times.

I guess, but the fact the market could support all those systems shows it much healthier.

Oregano · Nov 18, 2017

Jraphics Horse said:
yeah true, It was the first example I checked but I knew offers must have been a big thing in that case.

You'd think generally that is the case, I looked at the 3DS's first year and that had a pretty weak November, I thought it picked up a lot of popularity by then but maybe not.

Edit: 3DS 2011 November ~795k, December ~1600k

Oh wow that is quite the surprise.

phantomx · Nov 18, 2017

HstrangeDreaMs said:
I do not think Switch can do like PS4 as we can already see Switch barely sold around 300k even with good stock and big title in Oct. Also there are no discounts for Switch for black Friday and no big 3rd party titles, where PS4 is available at $199 with big 3rd party push and greater library.
I am curious to see Switch numbers for November, and if it can sell above 800k then I can see it has some good demand and big success in future, otherwise (anything less or close to 500k) I would guess that it selling only to Nintendo enthusiasts mostly.

Hey....that 2015 when 1.5 million ps4's sold in November? Only 275k ps4's sold the October prior.....the Switch is already beating that with 290k! think positive! :D

donny2112 · Nov 18, 2017

ccieag said:
Switch will lose November, because no sales. PS4 will win November, with X1 in second, and Switch in third.

Cheap matters in November. December will be Switch's though

This man gets it. Sales rule all in November+December.

Also, November+December have been increasing in their percentage of annual sales since the Fall 2008 financial crisis. Many people just do not even look for big ticket items like consoles until the Christmas shopping season.

LOCK said:
December is usually larger than November, especially software.

For hardware, they've been unusually flat more often of late due to heavy discounts in November/Black Friday. Again since the Fall 2008 financial crisis, companies know that consumers have strictly limited funds available, so they'll want to get their purchase sooner, when there are still funds available, instead of later, when the funds may have run out. Software is less of a major purchase, so the five weeks in December vs. November usually have a bigger impact, then, yep.

slavesnyder said:
Yes, I'm paranoid — but am I paranoid enough?

I heard someone else was more paranoid than you. Get going!

phantomx · Nov 18, 2017

Benji said:
It is widely available in every corner of the US and has been since early / mid September

Probably won't be true in November and December though.

Not selling through shipments in sept/oct isn't indictive of lower demand for a product, there is just relatively low demand for console hardware in general in the US as holiday shopping draws near

I think the ps4 sold 280k, 275k, and 235k in October NPD of 2014, 2015, and 2016 respectively.

And we know ps4 was stocked pretty well in stores during those times and we know those low Oct sales isn't indicative of ps4 demand.

donny2112 · Nov 18, 2017

phantomx said:
Probably won't be true in November and December though.

Not selling through shipments in sept/oct isn't indictive of lower demand for a product, there is just relatively low demand for console hardware in general in the US as holiday shopping draws near

Yeah, I think he was just showing that the October sales were not a case of Nintendo selling all they can ship currently. Personally, I've seen Splatoon bundles at Wal-Mart consistently. I've sort of chalked that up to Splatoon not being as big a thing in the U.S., in general, as non-bundled units haven't been available the whole time since Splatoon. Non-bundled units have definitely been on the floors of stores around me in October, though.

Elandyll · Nov 18, 2017

phantomx said:
Probably won't be true in November and December though.

Not selling through shipments in sept/oct isn't indictive of lower demand for a product, there is just relatively low demand for console hardware in general in the US as holiday shopping draws near

I think the ps4 sold 280k, 275k, and 235k in October NPD of 2014, 2015, and 2016 respectively.

And we know ps4 was stocked pretty well in stores during those times and we know those low Oct sales isn't indicative of ps4 demand.

I honestly don't think parents will be desperately looking for a Switch in November, not after seeing it widely available in October, and selling sub 300k in Mario Odyssey month.

December might be a different story, we'll see.

SavoyPrime · Nov 18, 2017

Disappointing to see Shadow of War at #1, but Evil Within 2 and Wolfenstein 2 sitting at 13 and 14 respectively.

phantomx · Nov 18, 2017

Ryng Manuel Tolu said:
Nintendo don't have enough stock for that. I think 2 million in November and December will happen in 2018. There will be surely some promotion for Switch at 250$ , and with Pokémon and no stock issue, it will be an insane holiday for Nintendo.

According to Nintendo's new hardware projections through the end of March 2018...they certainly should have enough stock to ship this holiday to sell 2 million in the US.

I mean, the majority share of the 9-10 million Switch's between now and March should be shipped this holiday...not in January and February :P

phantomx · Nov 18, 2017

Fredrik said:
No that type of bickering is worse of course, but sales figures from NPD are often used as facts on the boards for the US sales, if lots of sales for certain games/versions aren't even counted then we simply shouldn't compare them to anything where similar sales are counted and take the results seriously. I mean, as an example, if Mario's sales figures are without digital sales and Shadow of War's figures are with digital sales, why should we have a sales top list where Shadow of War is number 1? Do we know that it's number 1 if Mario's digital sales are counted? I'm just thinking that the ranking is pointless if all sales aren't counted for all games.
Regarding Forza 7 I'm even more surprised now that it managed to place above GTS if PC digital sales aren't counted.

I'm betting NPD pushes the rankings, even with limited data, in order to force some publishers to give up their data like the other do...lest their games suffer from unfair rankings ;)

[edit: reading the rest of the thread I guess you already came to the same conclusion lol]

Vena · Nov 18, 2017

Elandyll said:
I honestly don't think parents will be desperately looking for a Switch in November, not after seeing it widely available in October, and selling sub 300k in Mario Odyssey month.

December might be a different story, we'll see.

The last two days of the month isn't really "Odyssey Month".

phantomx · Nov 18, 2017

Astandahl said:
Xbox One 2014 is a particular case. There was a price drop to 349 + AC Unity + 50 card gift which was by far the best option for the holiday season.

Switch + BotW + Season Pass bundle for $299 this holiday believe

NPD October 2017: Shadow of War #1 SW, Nintendo Switch #1 HW

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