NPD October 2017: Shadow of War #1 SW, Nintendo Switch #1 HW

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Andromeda

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Oct 27, 2017
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It's funny seeing some of genuinely surprised the $199 PS4 Slim is killing it on Black Friday week. It was destined to be absolutely huge for Sony and they'll likely "win" November because of it.

#2 is more interesting to me. The X launch + $199 S this week may give that placement to MS, but we'll see. Nintendo has been selling tons of Switch consoles all month long.
They can win November but only if they have enough stock of their 1TB model. Apparently it's already sold out at BestBuy.

On the other hand all main XB1 SKUs are discounted and are still available.
 

OrbitalBeard

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Oct 25, 2017
12,803
They can win November but only if they have enough stock of their 1TB model. Apparently it's already sold out at BestBuy.

On the other hand all main XB1 SKUs are discounted and are still available.
It's probably not sold out for the week. Best Buy and other retailers are likely holding back stock for Friday. If the S were selling as well as the Slim, retailers would do the same for that hardware.
 

Loveless

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Oct 27, 2017
790
It's funny seeing some of genuinely surprised the $199 PS4 Slim is killing it on Black Friday week. It was destined to be absolutely huge for Sony and they'll likely "win" November because of it.

#2 is more interesting to me. The X launch + $199 S this week may give that placement to MS, but we'll see. Nintendo has been selling tons of Switch consoles all month long.
Weren't most people on here saying that Nintendo would win if they had the stock(which they seem too?).
 

Lelouch0612

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Oct 25, 2017
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I think that Nintendo doesn't really care about "winning" November. The Switch is not readily available on Amazon.com (1-2 days wait) and has been very high on the charts the whole month. They may sell whatever they are shipping. PS4 should take the month thanks to its amazing deals imo.
 

Soony Xbone Uhh

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OrbitalBeard

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Oct 25, 2017
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Weren't most people on here saying that Nintendo would win if they had the stock(which they seem too?).
Some have said this and I don't believe I've ever agreed with it. At least not in the past few months when demand has leveled off and we've gotten a slightly better picture of how Switch is performing. The Switch is extremely successful, but it's not "Wii" successful and for a $299 device to outsell a $199 PS4 in November, it needs to be at that level.

Nintendo is going to have an amazing month though and they'll be doing it without discounts, so they're going to be very happy.
 

Boke18

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Oct 25, 2017
7,849
Yea a $200 playstation 4 is a steal. Not to mention the BlackFriday deals on games imo are really good.

Also I doubt it's gonna be sold out on Best Buy for long. I'd assume it'll go back in stock later today. But yea I wouldn't be shocked if they are holding back stock for Thursday and through the weekend tbh
 

gcwy

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Oct 27, 2017
7,614
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They have a shot at outselling PS4 first year.

Knowing the team developping the next CoD, I say there is a very good chance to see it next year on Switch. Moreover LA Noire released on Switch too, I don't believe that it is a one shot thing, Take 2 was also extremely happy with the Switch. So we'll see.
A COD game would be pretty interesting for the Switch since they don't make last gen versions anymore. Now, the question is, would they go for parity in terms of the base visuals with some cutbacks on post-processing and image quality or would they target 60fps like the last gen versions and cut as much things as possible while keeping a steady frame rate? Or maybe they'll take the FIFA approach.
 

Hero

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Oct 25, 2017
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Maybe they are just confident in X or they plan to move on and focus on Xbox x from now on.
Possibly!

Weren't most people on here saying that Nintendo would win if they had the stock(which they seem too?).
Nintendo is going to sell every system they ship between November and December, that's a "win" from Nintendo. For Switch to outsell PS4, that would be more of an issue with Sony's marketing strategy, supply chain, etc. Not sure why it's a system wars thing when both are poised to do great this season.

No kidding.
The Gamestop deal is essentially $100 more expensive for the same thing ($299 1Tb XB1S w/ game vs $199 1Tb PS4 w/ $50 gift card).
Yeah, I have a bunch of GameStop credit from flipageddon so I was planning on getting an Xbox One S but it seems like I'd be better off getting a 1TB PS4 Slim which would be my second PS4...
 

Lelouch0612

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Oct 25, 2017
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A COD game would be pretty interesting for the Switch since they don't make last gen versions anymore. Now, the question is, would they go for parity in terms of the base visuals with some cutbacks on post-processing and image quality or would they target 60fps like the last gen versions and cut as much things as possible while keeping a steady frame rate? Or maybe they'll take the FIFA approach.
They targeted 30fps on Wii but the gap was a lot bigger. COD is a game that has a mass appeal, with a more casual crowd. They might take the 2K18 approach with a feature complete version, visually close but at 30fps.
 

Sense

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Oct 25, 2017
1,653
It's funny seeing some of genuinely surprised the $199 PS4 Slim is killing it on Black Friday week. It was destined to be absolutely huge for Sony and they'll likely "win" November because of it.

#2 is more interesting to me. The X launch + $199 S this week may give that placement to MS, but we'll see. Nintendo has been selling tons of Switch consoles all month long.
I still think Xbox one x is going to put ms ahead of Sony for the month. Lot of pent up demand from hardcore Xbox fans. Nintendo is going to be the surprise factor.
 

gcwy

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Oct 27, 2017
7,614
Michigan
They targeted 30fps on Wii but the gap was a lot bigger. COD is a game that has a mass appeal, with a more casual crowd. They might take the 2K18 approach with a feature complete version, visually close but at 30fps.
That's certainly possible. I could see them taking a page from NBA 2K18 or Doom. The Wii ports were really impressive. They were the same game as the PS360 versions just with lowered graphical settings. No reductions in enemy on screen or change in level design. In fact, it was pretty much similar to the low graphics settings on PC. One thing's for sure though, it will sell like hotcakes. Even the Vita game did pretty well IIRC.
 

cakely

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Oct 27, 2017
8,767
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Weren't most people on here saying that Nintendo would win if they had the stock(which they seem too?).
I don't know about most people, but that was certainly what I had thought.

A month ago I thought the ranking for November would be Switch > Xbox One > PlayStation 4. Now I really have no idea. I think it will be a huge, close month. I really hope that we get some numbers.
 
Oct 25, 2017
14,920
PS4 1TB $199 model just overtook both Switch SKUs on amazon US monthly: https://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2017-11/videogames/

Switch skus on amazon currently have a 1-2 day delay in shipping due to availability, which might hinder their moving units, though. Of course, still a massive performance by the PS4 to go from 34th to 9th in the monthly ranking in two days!
Whew, and it has only been about 2 days and a half. It will be $199 all the way to next Monday.

PS4/Xone time aligned +24.4% vs PS3/X360
Thanks Mat.
 

Lelouch0612

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Oct 25, 2017
11,956
For November hardware just flip a coin. I think it could easily be any of the 3. Shrug.
The Industry will be the big winner here. It is great that the Switch is offering something else than the twins. It is not canibalizing their sales and therefore is contributing to the growth of the industry.

As NPD is based on revenue, I am expecting to see a lot of Switch titles in the Top 20 mostly evergreen. What games are you expecting to chart ?
 

Elandyll

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Oct 25, 2017
4,670
My prediction at this point for the Holidays

PS4: 3.2m (1.6 + 1.6)
NS: 2.4m (800k+ 1.6)
XB1: 2.2m (1.1 + 1.1 / 40% 1X in Nov, 25% in Dec)
 
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Loveless

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Oct 27, 2017
790
I don't know about most people, but that was certainly what I had thought.

A month ago I thought the ranking for November would be Switch > Xbox One > PlayStation 4. Now I really have no idea. I think it will be a huge, close month. I really hope that we get some numbers.
Actually looking at this thread, doesn't seem like many people are saying it now but definitely a couple of months ago people were. I'm pretty sure people thought the Switch would have supply issues even in the holiday but it seemed to be pretty stocked even in October and definitely no supply issues currently.

Possibly!



Nintendo is going to sell every system they ship between November and December, that's a "win" from Nintendo. For Switch to outsell PS4, that would be more of an issue with Sony's marketing strategy, supply chain, etc. Not sure why it's a system wars thing when both are poised to do great this season.



Yeah, I have a bunch of GameStop credit from flipageddon so I was planning on getting an Xbox One S but it seems like I'd be better off getting a 1TB PS4 Slim which would be my second PS4...
I actually don't think the switch stock will run out, just going by Amazon really but from my local dealers the Switch is still in stock.
 

skittzo0413

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Oct 25, 2017
21,532
Actually looking at this thread, doesn't seem like many people are saying it now but definitely a couple of months ago people were. I'm pretty sure people thought the Switch would have supply issues even in the holiday but it seemed to be pretty stocked even in October and definitely no supply issues currently.
I think a lot of those predictions were before we knew about the $199 PS4 deal.

And it's still possible they win, but I don't think it really matters anymore with all 3 poised to do extremely well.
 

Hero

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Oct 25, 2017
3,520
But which of the three represents the side?
Heads/tails = PS4/Switch
Side = Xbox One

Actually looking at this thread, doesn't seem like many people are saying it now but definitely a couple of months ago people were. I'm pretty sure people thought the Switch would have supply issues even in the holiday but it seemed to be pretty stocked even in October and definitely no supply issues currently.



I actually don't think the switch stock will run out, just going by Amazon really but from my local dealers the Switch is still in stock.
Nintendo systems tend to disappear starting Black Friday. 3DSes were hard to find last year. Whatever stock you are seeing in stores is in preparation for Friday.
 

Kas'

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Oct 26, 2017
1,064
$199 is going to be huge for Sony. I think they’ll take November with it. They have a nice adverstising campaign with a firm price of $199.

I guess Microsoft is going to stick to their guns for the time being but searching Google the cheapest option they have at major store retailers is $230 for the 500 GB Halo or Madden bundle.
 

Primethius

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Oct 25, 2017
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Even with the PS4 $199 performance, I'm still thinking XB1X has an advantage in terms of overall sales for November due to pent up demand and initial launch rush.

The $199 price point (and I believe Cyber Monday being counted towards December) does make me more confident in the PS4 taking December however.
 
Oct 27, 2017
4,691
$199 is going to be huge for Sony. I think they’ll take November with it. They have a nice adverstising campaign with a firm price of $199.

I guess Microsoft is going to stick to their guns for the time being but searching Google the cheapest option they have at major store retailers is $230 for the 500 GB Halo or Madden bundle.
It's $189 at all major retailers
 

Elandyll

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
4,670
that would be a huge drop off for the Xbox. Considering last November they sold 1 million without the X and like 1.3 ish in December

And a big uptick for the PS4 in November
I see the XB1 familly as flat yoy, mayyybe +100k in Nov, as the 1S has seen declining interest all year. The 1X would basically cancel the drop with around 400k sold (which at $500 would be a nice result still).

The Switch just doesn't have any deals to speak of, although it should tick up as Nintendo seems to have the stocks, I don't see why it would be a massive draw around Black Friday (December is another story).

The PS4... The $199 price for 10 days, combined with extra BF deals (specially the Gamestop one if they have the stocks) is going to be massive imo.
You only have to look at the incredible feat of last year's UC4 bundle @ $249 (over what, 2 days?) to get an idea imo.

For a 500Gb XB1, which might be an important distinction.
Also to be noted, the XB1S has been widely availble at $199 for a month+ now without a big uptick. We're talking $10 off, vs $100 off for the PS4 at its most recent price.
 

Zedark

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Oct 25, 2017
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Even with the PS4 $199 performance, I'm still thinking XB1X has an advantage in terms of overall sales for November due to pent up demand and initial launch rush.

The $199 price point (and I believe Cyber Monday being counted towards December) does make me more confident in the PS4 taking December however.
The price point for December would be higher than $199, except for the two days of this promotion, right?

Also, I forgot that the last two days of the PS4 promotion don't count towards November. That slightly changes the odds. I still think PS4 has the highest chance of being #1, but it'll be very close between the three.
 

Kas'

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Oct 26, 2017
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But your assuming that Sony sales will persist at the same rate throughout the week, where as the majority of people will likely buy both on Friday Saturday and Sunday
Good point. Really at the end of the day, all three are going to do very well when all is said and done. IMO Sony will still be on top for November but all three are going to do well.
 

Primethius

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Oct 25, 2017
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The price point for December would be higher than $199, except for the two days of this promotion, right?

Also, I forgot that the last two days of the PS4 promotion don't count towards November. That slightly changes the odds. I still think PS4 has the highest chance of being #1, but it'll be very close between the three.
As of right now, the price point will be higher. But I think like last year, they'll bring it back for a week or two leading into Christmas.
 
Oct 26, 2017
7,427
So are we expecting PS4 to take this month?
With its crazy $199 price point and the PS4 being in it's peak year, assuming next year has a slight drop, yeah, it should take it. Black Friday weeks are all about getting expensive stuff for cheap. The Switch and XB1 will still do well but the former hasn't hit it's peak yet and the latter isn't as attractive as the PS4
 

Deleted member 249

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Oct 25, 2017
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With its crazy $199 price point and the PS4 being in it's peak year, assuming next year has a slight drop, yeah, it should take it. Black Friday weeks are all about getting expensive stuff for cheap. The Switch and XB1 will still do well but the former hasn't hit it's peak yet and the latter isn't as attractive as the PS4
Some are saying it's a toss.
Some are saying yes but close.

I'm saying yes, by a country mile.
Thank you for the answers!
Do we have any trends for how the three systems are performing at the moment that we can reference? I see PS4 has overtaken Switch on Amazon at the moment.
 

OrbitalBeard

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Oct 25, 2017
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Even with the PS4 $199 performance, I'm still thinking XB1X has an advantage in terms of overall sales for November due to pent up demand and initial launch rush.

The $199 price point (and I believe Cyber Monday being counted towards December) does make me more confident in the PS4 taking December however.
Yeah, December tracking starts this upcoming Sunday.
 

Cugel

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Nov 7, 2017
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Is there any graph up to date comparing the sales curves of Wii / Wii U / Switch / PS4, etc ?
 
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