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NPD October 2020: FIFA 21 #1, Watch Dogs: Legion #3, NHL 21 #4th, Mario Kart Live 5th; Switch #1 HW

JJConrad

Member
Nov 3, 2017
671
Geez people......

Passing Assassin said:
The obsession over such a small release as Pikmin 3 is weird, but it probably would have been #21 or #22 so not charting in the top 20 doesn't change much. Performance in Japan is an outlier so it mustn't be compared with other parts of the world. The UK performance is more likely to be the trend in the west (slight decline at retail compared with the original, likely caught up with digital for a slightly better debut).
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QFT

stealthyfrog said:
Crash 4 increases by one rank month-on-month

You love to see it

It says that Crash 4 did not do exceptionally well at launch. Its hold here is fairly impressive, it'll be fine in the end. The question is whether "fine" is enough for Activision.
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This chart represents days 4-32 and sales are likely down from launch. The Star Wars game released the same day and had the same type of hold. It's hold is average but starting from a position of weakness. It's too early to say it'll be fine. If its legs hold up over the next 2 months, it might be fine in the end.

jungomitis said:
Sad to see that Fifa is number 1 (on any chart). The game will never change if it keeps selling like it is
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If its any consolation, there doesn't look to be any indications that actual sales are up. Last year, Fifa released in September and COD released in October. If either of those happened this year, Fifa wouldn't have been #1. This year is just a little weaker in new releases.

Charamiwa said:
Aside from MK8DX, no Wii U port sell like a brand new game. People love saying they do, but it's never true.
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The biggest difference between the sales of these WiiU ports and new games is that the WiiU ports don't have the big launches. The games' legs are roughly the same. What makes MK8DX appear different is that it released so close to the Switch's launch that it's weakened launch was covered by the limited userbase.

evilmonkey said:
If you told me that thumbnail came from The Hard Times I'd believe it.

This comparison pops up very often but it doesn't work and here's why: there weren't a lot of quality 2D platformers back then. NSMB DS and Wii had pretty much the whole market cornered. Now there are countless. The same cannot be said for kart racers.

If you're shopping for a kart racer you will probably get MK8D, the other options can be counted in one hand. But if you're shopping for a 2D platformer, NSMBU may be quite low on your list.
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There was no lack of quality 2D platformers on the GBA and DS. Regardless of system, the NSMB games have held roughly the same position relative to its other software. There's no reason to think a new 2D Mario game wouldn't do the same on Switch. Mario just tends to corner whatever market it enters.
 
evilmonkey

evilmonkey

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,481
Canada
JJConrad said:
There was no lack of quality 2D platformers on the GBA and DS. Regardless of system, the NSMB games have held roughly the same position relative to its other software. There's no reason to think a new 2D Mario game wouldn't do the same on Switch. Mario just tends to corner whatever market it enters.
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It's a bit subjective but 2D platformers were largely seen as "cheap" back then. There wasn't a single brand new 2D Mario for almost 15 years prior to NSMB.
 

JJConrad

Member
Nov 3, 2017
671
evilmonkey said:
It's a bit subjective but 2D platformers were largely seen as "cheap" back then. There wasn't a single brand new 2D Mario for almost 15 years prior to NSMB.
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Cheap?(Or the perception of being cheap?) Weren't you just using the indie market as a reason why Mario doesn't have the same reach?

And "15 years" is bit reductionist and revisionist. You've got to ignore a lot of trends and other games to make that claim work. The division between 2D Mario and 3D Mario wasn't even a thing until NSMB outsold all the 3D games. Plus, much of that gap comes from an era when the Mario franchise was being heavily diversified. I could just as easily claim,"Its been almost 10 years since the last new 2D Mario game, so demand should be high."
 
evilmonkey

evilmonkey

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Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,481
Canada
JJConrad said:
Cheap?(Or the perception of being cheap?) Weren't you just using the indie market as a reason why Mario doesn't have the same reach?

And "15 years" is bit reductionist and revisionist. You've got to ignore a lot of trends and other games to make that claim work. The division between 2D Mario and 3D Mario wasn't even a thing until NSMB outsold all the 3D games. Plus, much of that gap comes from an era when the Mario franchise was being heavily diversified. I could just as easily claim,"Its been almost 10 years since the last new 2D Mario game, so demand should be high."
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They were seen as cheap, so yes it was perception. It's not revisionist at all to say that there wasn't a new 2D Mario in over a decade; it's fact. The division wasn't a thing back then obviously because 3D Mario was seen as the continuation of the series and not its own thing.

Prior to NSMB Nintendo thought people no longer wanted a new 2D game and they were quickly proven wrong. It wasn't about pent up demand as much as a misreading of the market.
 
Sander VF

Sander VF

The Fallen
Oct 28, 2017
25,960
Tbilisi, Georgia
evilmonkey said:
This comparison pops up very often but it doesn't work and here's why: there weren't a lot of quality 2D platformers back then. NSMB DS and Wii had pretty much the whole market cornered. Now there are countless. The same cannot be said for kart racers.
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Those countless 2D platformers scarcely even aim at replicating the appeal of 2D Mario.

The sheer number is deceiving. There's not really much out there, in terms of meaningful alternatives for the casual buyer looking for that Super Mario experience. Most of the indie space is retro mash-ups like Shovel Knight, ultra-hard single screen affairs like Celeste, puzzle-platformers or fifty million metroidvanias. Regardless of quality, most of those games are about as much of a Mario replacement, as DOOM Eternal is to Call of Duty.

I'd argue that, if Nintendo were to release a brand new 2D Mario, NSMBU would be more of a competition for it than the entire indie space combined.

The audience that made NSMBWii sell 30m isn't gonna get their itch scratched by Shovel Knight.
 
wrowa

wrowa

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,373
ThisOne said:
I think expectation plays into it a lot. I already explained this on my previous post. TLOU2 had a huge expectation that it would have multiplayer and then 6 months before release they said it wouldn't. Because of this, I didn't buy the game at launch. I actually bought it used from someone on this site. Anecdotal, obviously, but I imagine that the lack of multiplayer has something to do with the lack of legs. GoT is catching up to it in total sales as evidenced by the fact that it's only one place behind it on the best sellers of the year list. I have no idea which game will have bigger overall sales in the long run but I wouldn't have guessed they even be close to each other in sales if you had asked me 12 months ago.
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I don't think people really buy these Naughty Dog games for their multiplayer modes. You do, obviously, but I don't think that it's a deciding factor for the market at large. People buy Last of Us for the cinematic tour de force they are expecting from Naughty Dog and everything else is secondary at best.

And if its legs aren't quite as great as hoped, I think this can be explained by that same reason as well. Last of Us 2 is a very unusual game. It's thematically extremely heavy and in ways that are quite unusual for a AAA video game production. I appreciate the game a lot for that, but I think that's something that might make the game not quite as universally appealing as its predecessor.
 

JJConrad

Member
Nov 3, 2017
671
evilmonkey said:
They were seen as cheap, so yes it was perception. It's not revisionist at all to say that there wasn't a new 2D Mario in over a decade; it's fact. The division wasn't a thing back then obviously because 3D Mario was seen as the continuation of the series and not its own thing.

Prior to NSMB Nintendo thought people no longer wanted a new 2D game and they were quickly proven wrong. It wasn't about pent up demand as much as a misreading of the market.
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I think you're making you category definition too narrow to be useful. The timeframe between SMW and NSMB is the most sparse era in the mainline Mario's release timeline regardless. But it's also the time when franchise saw its most growth, from Mario Kart to Mario Party to Luigi's Mansion. In that same timeframe, Nintendo released over a dozen new 2d platformers featuring Mario and/or Mario characters; DKC, MvDK, Yoshi, and Wario series all started in this time. They also had great success with Mario All Stars and their Advance re-releases. I just don't see where this idea that they abandoned 2D platformers or didn't think people wanted them has any merit.
 
Nanashrew

Nanashrew

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,328
There are still people who think 2D is cheap. The Kirby Star Allies announcement thread had some saying that the game should not be a full priced game because it's a 2D platformer.
 
Iron Eddie

Iron Eddie

Banned
Nov 25, 2019
9,812
Looks similar, people buy Nintendo systems for exclusives (which are the slowest to lower in prices) while third party dominate on Playstation and Xbox.
 
SimplyComplex

SimplyComplex

Member
May 23, 2018
4,020
Activision has a Crash mobile game, and apparently a TV show in the works according to rumors. Crash 4 not selling gang busters like the N. Same Trilogy isn't really that big of a detriment. Disappointing? Possibly but Crash as a franchise has a bright future I think and Activision seems to believe so as well.
 
evilmonkey

evilmonkey

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Oct 25, 2017
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Canada
Sander VF said:
Those countless 2D platformers scarcely even aim at replicating the appeal of 2D Mario.

The sheer number is deceiving. There's not really much out there, in terms of meaningful alternatives for the casual buyer looking for that Super Mario experience. Most of the indie space is retro mash-ups like Shovel Knight, ultra-hard single screen affairs like Celeste, puzzle-platformers or fifty million metroidvanias. Regardless of quality, most of those games are about as much of a Mario replacement, as DOOM Eternal is to Call of Duty.

I'd argue that, if Nintendo were to release a brand new 2D Mario, NSMBU would be more of a competition for it than the entire indie space combined.

The audience that made NSMBWii sell 30m isn't gonna get their itch scratched by Shovel Knight.
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That's right, an original 2D Mario game is still unrivaled in its appeal, but the audiences overlap quite a bit.

JJConrad said:
I think you're making you category definition too narrow to be useful. The timeframe between SMW and NSMB is the most sparse era in the mainline Mario's release timeline regardless. But it's also the time when franchise saw its most growth, from Mario Kart to Mario Party to Luigi's Mansion. In that same timeframe, Nintendo released over a dozen new 2d platformers featuring Mario and/or Mario characters; DKC, MvDK, Yoshi, and Wario series all started in this time. They also had great success with Mario All Stars and their Advance re-releases. I just don't see where this idea that they abandoned 2D platformers or didn't think people wanted them has any merit.
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Mario Kart, Mario Party, etc are different series and don't share much aside from the characters. They have different audiences.

There were other 2D platformers Nintendo made during that time, but none had the caliber of NSMB nor the sales numbers. I don't know why saying that NSMB was a huge turning point for the genre is controversial, it wasn't something that went unnoticed:

Simply put, the New Super Mario Bros. series helped kick off a 2D platformer renaissance. The genre hasn't seen this much love since the industry went to 3D in the '90s.
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10 Years Ago, New Super Mario Bros. Made Old-School Coolā€¦ or Profitable, Anyway

Nintendo didn't see the point of going back to 2D and the main reason NSMB existed in the first place was that this time they could use 3D graphics as a selling point:

Miyamoto said:
But as you'd expect, looking at it from the perspective of those who were in step with technological developments, one could ask: "Why are you making a 2D side-scrolling game now?" And then the counter-argument would be: "We can use 3D polygon graphics, but by making a side-scrolling game, won't we be appealing to a larger number of people?"
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Welfare

Welfare

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Oct 26, 2017
5,914
Dolorean Do you have PS4/XB1 numbers to share? This is the last month before their next gen consoles replace them.
 

Deleted member 3017

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17,653
Charamiwa said:
They sold that on DS and Wii, and then 13M on 3DS which puts it among the best selling games on the platform. After that it's only Wii U. So really we have 3 games doing extremely well on successful consoles, that's more than exceptions. And this doesn't even take into consideration that they were very iterative, especially the 3DS one that added very little to the table. We really have no idea what a brand new game could do.
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NSMBUDX will probably outsell the 3DS game.
 
Welfare

Welfare

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Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,914
Weekly Averages
NSW: 184,000 (+37%)
XB1: 17,000 (-7%)
PS4: 9,750 (-70%)

YTD
NSW: 5560K (+83%)
PS4: 1890K (-4%)
XB1: 1282K (-5%)

LTD
PS4: ~34.12M
XB1: ~28.79M
NSW: ~22.57M
 
PRrambo_

PRrambo_

PlayStation.jif
Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,869
If Pikmin 3 Deluxe is the last game in the series I will never forgive Nintendo for this. Why the fuck did they launch in in October right before next gen, and after you've released a Mario collection?!
 
Welfare

Welfare

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Joseki said:
So NSW will pass XBO early next year.
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Assuming both XB1 and PS4 sell around 400K this holiday, and Switch selling ~4.2M (+1M in November for 1.7M and then 2.5M December), LTD would look like this

PS4: 34.5M
XB1: 29.2M
NSW: 26.8M

XB1 should be passed by June 2021
PS4 should be passed by December 2021

Switch will have sold more in 5 reporting years than either Xbox One or PS4 sold in 9 reporting years.
 
OfficerRaichu15

OfficerRaichu15

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,315
Nashville
PR_rambo said:
If Pikmin 3 Deluxe is the last game in the series I will never forgive Nintendo for this. Why the fuck did they launch in in October right before next gen, and after you've released a Mario collection?!
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That's a low chance of it being the last one. It'll easily be the biggest Pikmin sales in series history. Hell, Pikmin 3 could outsell the Wii U one in Japan alone.
 
jfkgoblue

jfkgoblue

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
5,650
Zedark said:
That's not quite what the contention was, though. Just outselling a WiiU sales level is obviously a strong result for a port, but if a new game in a franchise barely outsold a WiiU entry, that would be a bad result. And most ports don't outsell their WiiU counterpart by a factor 3 or more like MK8D, hence why the "don't sell like a new game" part makes sense imo.

IMO it's really only the case for MK8D and (probably) NSMBUDX that they are selling like brand new Switch games (SM3DW+BF could definitely join that list I think). I'd contend that games like DK Tropical Freeze would sell more than 'just' 3 million on Switch it they weren't ports but brand new games.

Edit: Charamiwa I think is right to say that a new 2D Mario game could probably sell quite a bit faster than 8.32M in 1.5 years. Probably only MK8D really hits that 'new entry on Switch' level of sales.
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BotW is a WiiU port as well
 
Puroresu_kid

Puroresu_kid

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
9,465
Remember when the president said 100 mil was achievable and myself included thought that was a big ask.

Switch is going to pass that easily.
 
Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
jfkgoblue said:
It's a WiiU port though, just because the WiiU version was held back until Switch launch doesn't change that
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From a dev standpoint you are right, but it doesn't make sense to consider it as such in the context of the post you quoted. Obviously it is going to behave like a new game if it launched at the same time as the original version.
 

Deleted member 17388

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TheGreatJordan said:
Guess crash is dead again?
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They will try another time, since they have some bets in the property already (The streaming series)
But most likely the next project will be scaled down in terms of budget / scope. There could not be a "Crash 5", but something else.

And if the mobile game does better than expected, we could see them try new venues for Crash (Not necessarily mobile-only, but F2P), and a change in demographics since now they know older fans won't show up in masses again for lack of nostalgia.
 
Tbone5189

Tbone5189

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PR_rambo said:
If Pikmin 3 Deluxe is the last game in the series I will never forgive Nintendo for this. Why the fuck did they launch in in October right before next gen, and after you've released a Mario collection?!
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Lol you do know pikmin 3Dx will be the highest selling pikmin ever and possibly doubling the best pikmin (Pikmin1) in sales lifetime
 
Omnistalgic

Omnistalgic

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8,973
NJ
Switch lite SKU is not separated correct? I mentioned it because yesterday my niece came over with their games with my daughter and there was literally 5 switches in the house lol. Not trying to downplay Nintendo's amazing success at all here they are breaking records (150M LTS!) and the first party is ridiculous. But it is a little weird IMO (aka warriorish) to always compare consoles you can only play on TV's and are stationary to what Switch is doing. It's really not apples to apples to me. Like PS5 and Series both have two SKU's, similar library and same functionality. You can really gauge what the market is choosing with direct comparisons of those two. I just don't get the "Switch selling so much this month means it's so much more popular than PS/Xbox" It's just not how I noticed the market playing out in everyday life.

eh maybe I'm crazy...either way great to see good games selling so well man, my daughter has been playing animal crossing and now Bugsnax and its a beautiful thing when you see your favorite pastime trickle down to another generation. I think that's what Nintendo is absolutely the best at and why the industry needs them. They have the best "fun to play games"'where age requirements don't need to be considered.
 

Deleted member 63122

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Omnistalgic said:
Switch lite SKU is not separated correct? I mentioned it because yesterday my niece came over with their games with my daughter and there was literally 5 switches in the house lol. Not trying to downplay Nintendo's amazing success at all here they are breaking records (150M LTS!) and the first party is ridiculous. But it is a little weird IMO (aka warriorish) to always compare consoles you can only play on TV's and are stationary to what Switch is doing. It's really not apples to apples to me. Like PS5 and Series both have two SKU's, similar library and same functionality. You can really gauge what the market is choosing with direct comparisons of those two. I just don't get the "Switch selling so much this month means it's so much more popular than PS/Xbox" It's just not how I noticed the market playing out in everyday life.

eh maybe I'm crazy...either way great to see good games selling so well man, my daughter has been playing animal crossing and now Bugsnax and its a beautiful thing when you see your favorite pastime trickle down to another generation. I think that's what Nintendo is absolutely the best at and why the industry needs them. They have the best "fun to play games"'where age requirements don't need to be considered.
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I get what you're saying, but it's basically the same. The games of the Switch lite and hybrid Switch are the same. Basically a whole family, if they were different games, they wouldn't count.
 
Omnistalgic

Omnistalgic

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NJ
storres said:
I get what you're saying, but it's basically the same. The games of the Switch lite and hybrid Switch are the same. Basically a whole family, if they were different games, they wouldn't count.
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hussien-11 said:
Software is priced same as console software, even on the Lite, so I guess it doesn't really matter that much if it is stationary or not.
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Oh no doubt it makes perfect sense for Nintendo I wouldn't expect them separate SKU, literally the same platform. To me it's just a separate level of comparison with switch to other platforms. Just going from my anecdotal Switch is in its own stratosphere lol...really cool to see young kids gaming again and not on IPads. No offense to mobile game lovers šŸ˜Š
 
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