I think their forecast is too low, but don't forget we also don't know how the PS4 is doing in Europe, where the pricing strategy is way less aggressive than in the US
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October 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, November 13th
- Thread starter donny2112
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In that case, it still won't, unless Sony royally screws up. It's basically up to Sony, and not Microsoft.
No, you're right. 965K it is...
To put up that much of a lead in 10 months in the region where your competition is at it's strongest is an incredible feat.
Honestly, I was not expecting it at all when they have had the newness of the Xbox One X to boost sales all year. If I saw a leaked document in 2017 saying that in 2018 the Xbox One would be price cut so many times throughout 2018 and theyd have some killer deals with the Xbox One X (like the Red Dead 2 one) Id think they would even have the chance of beating Sony this year.
So its quite amazing that Sony has about a million more sales in a year where MS has been trying their hardest to push the Xbox One S/X.
I think the Switch will outsell PS4 in December by +1m, it all depends on the gap in November.
Oh, I agree. I don't think they hit 20 million. I'm just saying relative to say, before Pokemon came out, they're now likelier to hit the forecast (though I still don't think it is happening).
Hi benji, can you answer whether PS4 was doing good or bad, before the 199$ SM bundle?
It's doing better but so is PS4. So the YoY gains seem a bit muted considering PS4 gained almost a million units over Xbox in U.S. 2018 alone despite Xbox One X, Game Pass, Play Anywhere, etc. It just shows that exclusive games matter above all else. God of War and Spider-Man putting in some work.
I think its a case of both. Yes it performed poorly previously, but now it has overcome that and it is now performing well. Unfortunately we don't see its numbers in a vacuum, but up against the Switch and PS4 numbers which are generally over performing on a month by moth basis.
eeeeh there's a PS4 1to bundle with RDR2 and Spider-Man at 299€ going on right now It's going to do pretty fine I think.
Why is it amazing ? Sony has had GOW and Spider-Man this year, two huge games that alone probably accounted for many console sales. Plus you had the exclusive marketing deal for this gens biggest game. So it's totally expected for me.
January-October of last year was really bad, but Xbox One is doing way better this year (like more than 500k ahead of 2017), also doing better than 2014, and not to far from 2015 and 2016.
So it's not doing exceptionally well, but recovered from the poor 2017.
No Spider-Man worldwide sales report yet, kinda cheating from SIE... : |
Will it wait after Black Friday some sort?
Will it wait after Black Friday some sort?
thanks Magicpork
great numbers all around. Xbox up significantly YoY. the turnaround from MS has been nothing short of amazing. Switch only down 12% from last October is crazy. the rest of the holiday for Nintendo is gonna be bonkers. nice to hear Let's Go is doing well too. and Sony just steady beasting. can't wait to see the November numbers to see how much stock that $199 deal was afforded. good stuff all around. the industry is in a great place.
great numbers all around. Xbox up significantly YoY. the turnaround from MS has been nothing short of amazing. Switch only down 12% from last October is crazy. the rest of the holiday for Nintendo is gonna be bonkers. nice to hear Let's Go is doing well too. and Sony just steady beasting. can't wait to see the November numbers to see how much stock that $199 deal was afforded. good stuff all around. the industry is in a great place.
Is it at all retailers like the Spider-Man bundle? And also 299€ is $340, so $141 more than the US main bundle
20M is very possible for Switch now. Pokemon is doing great and selling units which is exactly what Nintendo needed to meet that forecast. They are absolutely going to crush Nov / Dec sales.
299€ is 299€. You shouldn't convert the price like that because if the Spider-Man 199$ bundle was released in Europe, it'd be 199€. It's still two 60€ game bundled at the base RRP of the console.
I think it's available in the whole europe but I wouldn't be 100% sure.
They´re not the sole reason why the PS4 has nearly a million on Xbox so far this year. Even in the quiet months where Sony wasnt pushing the PS4 and MS was temporarily lowering the price of the Xbox One the PS4 managed to sell more. In a year where MS has had the Xbox One S very cheap and the Xbox One X has been continued to be pushed with notable deals.
Not even Sony expected this performance, they were already doing huge numbers before so being up this year was certainly not expected.
[Edited first part of my post because I mixed it with software]
In Japan, shipped is pretty close to sold-in for the Switch. Hardly an issue.
Shipments do correlate to sell in numbers. If something isn't selling, inventory remains on shelves and in storage, meaning you can't ship more units.
In other words: while shipments and sales don't correlate 1:1, there is enough of a relation between the two that you can use one to infer the other.
Yeah it seems unlikely to do 5 6 million in November and December imo.
Especially since PS4 will be 199 with a game that all the kids want (spider Man) vs 299 with a game that both kids and adult want ( smash). I think 199 will win the parents Everytime in holiday shopping .maybe I m wrong though
Well I'm sure MS sees it as a positive. It IS up YOY. Which is good. Means that people are finding the product attractive. It's not doing better than the comp and at this point it won't. But Phil and co have to focus on cultivating and delivering to that audience.
In France, it is not available on Amazon, Fnac and Micromania. But anyway, the pricing strategy has been globally way less aggressive in Europe since the launch of PS4 - and still is.
PS4 will not affect Switch sales to any significant degree and vice versa. Even if PS4 "wins" the holidays, it won't directly influence Nintendo's forecast.
Okay, yeah I would be honestly surprised if the Switch didnt handily beat that. It was close last year.
It really is Bonkers how well PS4 is selling.
It's both. Last year was bad for Microsoft and now they are back on doing good.
Yeah they are waiting for BF and holidays to end.
You're talking about an Amazon.fr offer, perhaps? It doesn't seem to be available anywhere, though there are similar offers with only Spider-Man or older games.
It's out of the question PS4 (and Switch) are going to push big numbers in Europe, the mistery is how further it could go with prices in line with the US. Xbox, for example, is getting wild discounts (€150 with games and multiple pads) and it's probably going to have its best holidays here despite its low popularity. Who knows what PS4 would do at €199.
I'm thinking ~3.5-4M for the US. And I think they still will hit 20M.
Maybe with a bit of channel stuffing towards the end of Q4.
There's a clear main driver behind this development of PS4's and XBP's YoY development, and its name is Battle Royal games. Headsets are also selling like crazy. No one could have expected this.
Big question is how long this amazing frenzy will go on before that specific market is finally saturated.
So glad to see you MagicPork! Thanks for the numbers!
Switch did nearly 300k last year according to John Harker, so this year it did about 265k. That means that PS4 would be about 355k if my math is right.
Plus lots of smaller exclusives such as Detroit that pleases gamers who aren't into the huge games.
The bundle is sold-out but was available on amazon.fr, fnac, micromania and other places. See here: https://www.amazon.fr/Pack-Dead-Redemption-Marvels-Spiderman/dp/B07KJRZGN3 but it might be something local rather than online. I got alerts saying that it was available in some stores in any case.
But yes, it's not going to go as high as with the US due to less agressive polciy and the big Switch competition. It's still getting an attractive offering this holiday, is what I was saying, and should comfortably sell a lot of units.
Xbox is super aggressive since months or even years now due to the shrinking popularity of the brand in Europe sans UK.
Isn't there always some big trend though pushing console sales, whether that's MOBAs, arena shooters, minecraft-style builders, etc? I'm not saying it's incorrect, I'm just wondering if the Battle Royale craze has really boosted console sales more than all those others have in recent years.
You are very wrong because you assume that things can't co-exist which has been disproven times and times again. A limited offer during Black Friday won't change the mind of a child that wants Pokémon or Smash for Christmas.
Told ya PLG haters this game is gonna sell tons, even though I personally dont like the game (no wild battles is BIG mistake)
Everything is selling well