Yeah bro, I too think that AC will easily beat the other two. Pretty excited for next week's charts. :D
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PAL Charts - Week 42, 2017
- Thread starter Bruno MB
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Yeah bro, I too think that AC will easily beat the other two. Pretty excited for next week's charts. :D
Steam should always be taken with a grain of salt, since there are so many complicated demographic problems, and the Steamspy numbers won't stabilize for a few days, but...
Here are the numbers for AC launches in UK, thanks Bruno!
I think AC:O will land somewhere between Unity and Syndicate, my guess is 130k. The question is whether SMO can top that number. I'm going to guess that it will edge out in front of AC, such that Mario > AC > Wolfenstein.
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[Week 46, 2007] ASSASSIN'S CREED (UBISOFT) - 156,000 / NEW (90%)
[Week 47, 2009] ASSASSIN'S CREED II (UBISOFT) - 175,000 / NEW (90%)
[Week 46, 2010] ASSASSIN'S CREED: BROTHERHOOD (UBISOFT) - 207,000 / NEW (90%)
[Week 46, 2011] ASSASSIN'S CREED: REVELATIONS (UBISOFT) - 215,000 / NEW (90%)
[Week 44, 2012] ASSASSIN'S CREED III (UBISOFT) - 332,000 / NEW (90%)
[Week 44, 2013] ASSASSIN'S CREED IV: BLACK FLAG (UBISOFT) - 128,000 / NEW (90%)
[Week 46, 2014] ASSASSIN'S CREED: ROGUE (UBISOFT) -
[Week 46, 2014] ASSASSIN'S CREED: UNITY (UBISOFT) - 153,000 / NEW (95%)
[Week 43, 2015] ASSASSIN'S CREED: SYNDICATE (UBISOFT) ~ 100,000 / NEW (95%)I think AC:O will land somewhere between Unity and Syndicate, my guess is 130k. The question is whether SMO can top that number. I'm going to guess that it will edge out in front of AC, such that Mario > AC > Wolfenstein.
Steam should always be taken with a grain of salt, since there are so many complicated demographic problems, and the Steamspy numbers won't stabilize for a few days, but...
Thank you for this.
Well of course. The first one was a surprise hit and got a positive word of mouth. This, combined with the marketing of Wolf2, will ensure that it'll do better than the first one.
No one should be surprised.
A PAL chart! Now I know this is my new home. Just need to see the old barbell GIF and I'll know all's well with the thread.
Decent start for GT I thought. It was bound to be down from 5 given the WoM it's more online centric and lack of number 7 in its title. That said beating 6 shows it's got potential (assuming normal GT legs over the years) to get to solid LTD numbers. Still on fence with it myself but might get it just because it look's so lovely visually.
Decent start for GT I thought. It was bound to be down from 5 given the WoM it's more online centric and lack of number 7 in its title. That said beating 6 shows it's got potential (assuming normal GT legs over the years) to get to solid LTD numbers. Still on fence with it myself but might get it just because it look's so lovely visually.
AC could be down/flat physically while being up overall, trends in digital share growing are more pronounced on the twins compared to the Switch.
I also think that releasing on the same day as SMO effected both AC:O and Wolfenstein 2 negatively, since the amount of viral/organic mind-share was limited due to Mario dominating the news in social media. Overall I wouldn't be suprised if SMO opens over 100K physically in the UK.
Just going off the performance of the most recent Bethesda games, I don't think its performance is as clear as you think it is. At the very least, it is something worth considering.
Your digital adoption point is good and could make difference . I don't know about mindshare as there really isn't anything else than anecdote evidence of that. For example you didn't see much discussion about new Ghost Recon here yet it had huge debut. Galaxy games were also major critical successes with lot of internet hype behind them and released when UK market was at its peak and Wii was selling like crazy yet neither debuted with over 100k in UK. I mean with Mario games being all about legs Odyssey will be great success in UK too (just like pretty much all mainline Mario games) but I am not so sure about first week being that high.
Bear in mind that buying games digitally in the UK is not particularly popular because you end up paying way more than physical retail.
Well, Fire Emblem has to be one of the weakest markets for FE. I don't think I've ever heard anyone in my social circles ever mention the franchise. In fact I'm pretty sure most people have no idea what FE even is here.
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Super Mario Galaxy had a lot of hype too and was released in an even more popular platform than Nintendo Switch and it couldn't get close to 100,000 units. It sold between 63,000 - 79,000 units.
Wolfenstein: The New Order sold 78,000 units.
It will be a very interesting week, unless any of the 3 major releases underperforms they all will likely be in a similar range of sales.
Wolfenstein: The New Order sold 78,000 units.
It will be a very interesting week, unless any of the 3 major releases underperforms they all will likely be in a similar range of sales.
Gran Turismo Sport numbers are disappointing.
There's no reason why the biggest Sony franchise had to limit their audience. They should've been given the budget (if this was the problem) to make a product able to reach both the classic single player audience and the multiplayer audience. 4 years is plenty of time for this.
We've seen Sony first party games do much better this generation. A well rounded Gran Turismo and with a better hype cycle would have rivaled GT5.
Missed oportunity. We'll see if the e-sports gamble pays off in the long run.
There's no reason why the biggest Sony franchise had to limit their audience. They should've been given the budget (if this was the problem) to make a product able to reach both the classic single player audience and the multiplayer audience. 4 years is plenty of time for this.
We've seen Sony first party games do much better this generation. A well rounded Gran Turismo and with a better hype cycle would have rivaled GT5.
Missed oportunity. We'll see if the e-sports gamble pays off in the long run.
The UK absolutely love GT. Pretty much anyone I know who owns a PS4 has bought it and majority of those are casual gamers. Always going to be a heavy hitter for Sony.
Not sure how they are disappointing it sold better then 2 games in the franchise in the UK on physical alone.
It sold better than a new IP (Gran Turismo) and the game that everyone says sold terrible numbers for the franchise because the PS4 was already out (Gran Turismo 6).
It sold 3 times worse than the game that is the closest comparison in terms of release (Gran Turismo 5).
The debut is disappointing. Sales in the long run are another topic yet to be known.
It sold 3 times worse than the game that is the closest comparison in terms of release (Gran Turismo 5).
The debut is disappointing. Sales in the long run are another topic yet to be known.
Those two games are the very first entry, when GT was new, and the site, which suffered from incredible mismanagement by being exclusive to PS3 when PS4 was out for a month already. Passing those, even if with physical only, shouldn't be the bar for selling fine imo. The numbers indicate it is likely half of GT5, which I wouldn't consider good.
The sales numbers are good. So I don't really know what you mean by "disappointing".
And the days of a racing sim selling over 10 million copies are long gone.
GT5 was 7 years ago. And again: The days of a racing sim selling over 10 million copies are over.
In the end, my guess is GTS will sell just like GT6. A little bit over 5 million copies. And that's good. Very good, actually.
GTS numbers are pretty poor, yea. PD is no longer going to get the free reign that they've been given so far by Sony. Not only are they not the top dog in terms of Sony studios, I think they won't even be top 3 by generations end (sales wise). Naughty Dog, Sony Santa Monica and Guerrilla Games will probably hold those honors. I'm expecting big changes at how PD is managed, given how they mismanaged the GT franchise recently.
GT Sport should have much better legs than UC though.
Also, nice to see Aqua here.
Should be easy enough to find out next week, given that UK should be GT's strongest territory.
Fair enough, GT always had history of selling okay-ish for years and limping to 10m, they never had strong debuts outside of GT5.
EDIT: GT4 had a decent debut as well as seen below.
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I have collected the first week UK sales for some racing franchises.
F1 2015 - 45,000
F1 2016 - 30,000
F1 2017 - 29,000
Forza Motorsport 3 - 80,000
Forza Motorsport 4 - 106,000
Forza Motorsport 5 -
Forza Motorsport 6 - 35,000
Forza Motorsport 7 - 27,000
Forza Horizon -
Forza Horizon 2 - 61,000
Forza Horizon 3 - 68,000
Gran Turismo - 44,000
Gran Turismo 2 - 86,000
Gran Turismo 3 - 69,000
Gran Turismo 4 - 253,000
Gran Turismo 5 Prologue - 108,000
Gran Turismo 5 - 269,000
Gran Turismo 6 - 55,000
Gran Turismo Sport - 74,000
Project CARS - 55,000
Project CARS 2 - 14,000
Please note that these figures aren't up-weighted to cover the portion of market GfK Chart-Track doesn't track, so the difference is bigger for some titles. For example, if we extrapolate Gran Turismo 3 for total market then it sold 92,000 units vs 78,000 for Gran Turismo Sport.
F1 2015 - 45,000
F1 2016 - 30,000
F1 2017 - 29,000
Forza Motorsport 3 - 80,000
Forza Motorsport 4 - 106,000
Forza Motorsport 5 -
Forza Motorsport 6 - 35,000
Forza Motorsport 7 - 27,000
Forza Horizon -
Forza Horizon 2 - 61,000
Forza Horizon 3 - 68,000
Gran Turismo - 44,000
Gran Turismo 2 - 86,000
Gran Turismo 3 - 69,000
Gran Turismo 4 - 253,000
Gran Turismo 5 Prologue - 108,000
Gran Turismo 5 - 269,000
Gran Turismo 6 - 55,000
Gran Turismo Sport - 74,000
Project CARS - 55,000
Project CARS 2 - 14,000
Please note that these figures aren't up-weighted to cover the portion of market GfK Chart-Track doesn't track, so the difference is bigger for some titles. For example, if we extrapolate Gran Turismo 3 for total market then it sold 92,000 units vs 78,000 for Gran Turismo Sport.
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I think Gran Turismo Sport numbers are disappointing for Gran Turismo game, but still it's probably best-selling racing game this gen. It beat Forza 7 by almost 3:1, where Xbox One is strongest (next to US). First week was also 5X bigger than PC2, which is multiplat.
This will very likely heavily depend on Sony's bundling strategy. During the Ps3 era GT was always a main bundle game for years.
This generation however basically all consoles sold are bundles and the Third Party AAA games make up a majority of the total units.
I could see this game selling either 1 million less or 1 million more than GT 6. Both wouldn't be out of the ordinary.
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Odyssey is bundled in Europe though right. I don't think the Galaxies were at launch...
AC > SMO > W
Oh yeah. That is good point too although isn't it cheaper to buy console and game separately? Well i guess we will see monday.
Hey Bruno, I have kinda lost track of the latest estimate for the last few weeks of N. Sane total sales in the UK according to the weekly drops/increases, it would be nice if you could give us a comprehensive picture of how the game is doing so far in the UK
Racing games are on the decline in every region just look at the progression of games like F1 series by Codemasters, Forza or GT (Project Cars 2 debacle is a reaction at the reception the first game got from the public imho). When Codemasters released F1 2010 it sold 2M+ copies worldwide and in the UK alone it sold 540k+. Now the first week sales are 29k!
The main difference isn't the actual games itself or their quality, it's the fact that the overall gaming landscape has changed a lot in the past 5 years. Now you are not competing against single player games that took 8 hours to complete and were thrown into the bin leaving a void to be filled by games that were replayable (racing + sports for the mainstream), now you are competing with almost every single AAA game that has a system designed into the game to make you a daily active user forever. That's actually what GT Sport is trying to do, esports is the secondary effect not the primary goal, the focus is a competitive and fair multiplayer experience that keeps you logging in everyday to complete the daily events. If it suceeds or not it remains to be seen.
The main difference isn't the actual games itself or their quality, it's the fact that the overall gaming landscape has changed a lot in the past 5 years. Now you are not competing against single player games that took 8 hours to complete and were thrown into the bin leaving a void to be filled by games that were replayable (racing + sports for the mainstream), now you are competing with almost every single AAA game that has a system designed into the game to make you a daily active user forever. That's actually what GT Sport is trying to do, esports is the secondary effect not the primary goal, the focus is a competitive and fair multiplayer experience that keeps you logging in everyday to complete the daily events. If it suceeds or not it remains to be seen.
GTS was never going to match GT5. The market has changed and its a new direction. It also doesn't match GT5 or close to that to be a massive success.
PD are only second to Naughty Dog. I'm not, because PD still makes quality games that appeal to millions.
That's true, But GTS seems headed towards a performance less than half of GT5. I really don't think that's a good result. It may have strong legs and go decently over half of GT5 in the end, but WoM doesn't seem exceptional, so I don't think that will happen.
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The last time its weekly percentage change was shared was 7 weeks ago and life-to-date sales were about 270,000 units. By now it must have easily crossed 300,000 units. For example, last week (week 41) it was one spot ahead of the Xbox One version of The Evil Within 2, which approximately sold 4,500 units.
Here a recent tweet from Cristopher Dring.
People who buy a new current gen console. This is clear from statistics.
So Forza Horizon 3 and Cash Bandicoot will be the best selling Xbox One and Ps4 exclusives in 2017 in the UK*.
Who would've believed that in late 2016?
*at retail
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Since this is a sales thread (retail) we can say that the only Xbox One exclusives of this year have been Halo Wars 2 and Forza Motorsport 7 and non of them had a chance to match Forza Horizon 3 second year even if they hadn't underperformed.
Crash Bandicoot N.Sane Trilogy performance has been a great surprise though.
Sales wise? I don't think so anymore. If GTS follows the trajectory of being slightly above 6, it'll land at 5-7 million sales lifetime.
I'm contrast, Horizon is going to be safely above that. And God of War is going to be a beast.
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